Lodging Delinquencies Surge, Driving Overall CMBS Rise
Where’s the next CRE pain point as I warned last year? @TreppWire CMBS Delinquency Rate increased 41 bps to 7.55% in March, reversing Feb’s decline. Lodging posted largest increase, jumping 137 bps to 7.31%, the first time it’s been >7% since its recent April 2025 peak of 7.85%. https://t.co/quDtwraofe
Mortgage Intent Index Slides, Yet Pending Sales Remain Positive
The Xactus Mortgage Intent Index dipped this week. Three down weeks in a row and below last year now. Xactus is counting credit pulls, so it includes refis. I've found this data to correlate well with the pending sales rate, though...
Exploring Tiny Multi-Family Independent Living Projects
Hmmm a project for 3 (or fewer) families living independently?? What could that be 🤔🤔🤔 https://t.co/OwOBaPrN67
Hot Asset Hype Triggers Overbuilding, Warns Unsophisticated Investors
Exhibit A on why uninformed / unsophisticated investors should stay from investing in industrial real estate. A few years ago I attended a conference where there was a break out panel on cold storage. Everyone on the panel was extremely bullish on...
Sacramento $400‑500K Sales Up 8%, Buyers Benefit
Seeing more sales between $400-500K in the Sacramento region. This is a part of the market that's experiencing volume growth from last year. This speaks to prices dipping and more sales happening in this range (8% more in 2026 so...
Rising Rates Erase Affordability Gains, Prices May Dip
Mortgage rates hit the upper 6s this week - up 65 bps in a month. The affordability gains of early 2026 are gone. Here's what the data shows: ➡️85,000 pending sales this week, down for the week. Still 1.5% above last...
People Want Good Homes, Not How They're Built
This is basically the same reasoning for why @americanhousing is a vertically integrated real estate company We are *using* industrial manufacturing to build nice rowhomes for people. They just find the house on Zillow, take a tour, like it ... and...
Emergent Builds MLS Replacement From a Single Prompt
A realtor just showed me an MLS replacement built with Emergent from a single prompt. F—k
No Income Tax Doesn't Guarantee Low Cost of Living
Just because a state doesn't have income taxes doesn't necessarily mean it's an affordable place to live. https://t.co/oPBtFcQdtW
Rent Control Myths: Government Can't Build Enough, Developers Won't Stay
The arguments that rent control does NOT disrupt housing supply boils down to two (bad) theories: 1) The government can build enough for everyone. 2) The private sector is just bluffing when they say they'll pull back in cities with rent control.
Bottom‑tier Homes See Offers; Overpriced Get None
More competitive at the bottom. Not a shocker. But expect zero offers if overpriced. Here are the number of offers in pending contracts over the past two weeks. Let’s keep watching demand closely since mortgage rates have spiked lately. https://t.co/nP090hRRtA
Florida Rents Plunge 25%, Renters Regain Leverage
Rental market deflation is spreading across Florida. In a metro like Cape Coral, apartment rents have been cut 25%. From a high of $1,695/month in 2022 peak down to $1,272/month. That's almost back to pre-pandemic norms (within 12%), and a signal that renters...
Buy America Law Stalls Housing, Adds Costly Delays
"A Build America, Buy America law is causing construction delays amid the US housing crisis" 😮 https://t.co/atUt3wR6gr "The waiver process has caused construction delays and hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra costs as the country faces an affordable housing...
Mortgage Rates May Drop if Tensions Ease, Data Weakens
It's looking like a good day for mortgage rates. But for them to have a winning week, we need easing tensions in the Middle East. And weak economic data, including job openings, retail sales, ADP jobs, and BLS on Friday.
Take Responsibility, Not Hope, for Better Rental Ownership
Owning rentals becomes a much better experience when you stop hoping and start taking responsibility.
Rowhomes: Ideal Starter Homes for Urban Families Everywhere
Re-upping a thread that explains WHY we are building Rowhomes: Family Size, starter homes, in Cities where young people already live ... and an *American* typology that exists in every geography https://t.co/avGI3eoAO1
Provincial and Federal Support Cuts Municipal Development Fees
Today We Will Have The Announcement Of The Provincial & Federal Governments Supporting The Reduction Of Municipal Development Fees Let's endorse this Everything that reduces Taxes is an unqualified GOOD THING Because Canadians are over taxed And Development Fees went NUTS
REPE Funds Force Cap Rate Compression for Rapid Gains
How “The Game” works in Institutional Real Estate Private Equity A lot of people know that when cap rates go down RE investors make a lot of money. Most investors rely on a lucky market to do it But what if you...
Renters Rights Act Hurting London Rental Supply, Data Mis
This is so terribly misleading. 1) This is ALL housing, not just rentals. 2) Even so, London rental supply DID fall last year largely due to the "Renters Rights Act," which swings pendulum so far that it's disincentivizing rental supply.
Buy by Price per Foot, Sell by Income
We bought a 6% Cap building for $1.95M and sold it for $5.5M. Lesson: Buy based on price per foot, sell based on income. https://t.co/cMiaf6dKzV
Suburban vs DC Buyers: Short‑Term Focus Over Housing Cycles
This piece from @mattyglesias makes me wonder if there’s a difference in perspective between an Alpharetta and a DC townhouse buyer, just less familiarity with multi-generational housing cycles of aging and renewal and more focus on the now: https://t.co/yWIIKEvGiH
Affordability Crisis Deepens for the Poor Despite Media Silence
Just a reminder that while the crowd and the media may have moved on, the affordability crisis didn't suddenly go away for those at the bottom. In fact, just the opposite. It's gotten worse, and not just economically.
Mortgage Rates Rebound From Historic Lows to 6.38%
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.38% (highest since Sep 2025) https://t.co/EZVocXbneE
LA Housing Authority Launches Active RFP for Management
This is from an active RFP for managing housing on behalf of the Housing Authority of the City of Los Angeles https://t.co/9nka8Quvyt
Queer Eye Star Designs Luxury Holladay Homes for Tri Pointe
This ‘Queer Eye’ star helped design massive new luxury homes in Holladay. Here’s a peek. A model in Tri Pointe Homes’ new community will open this summer. The Salt Lake City Tribune toured it in the fall.
Stop Overpaying: Verify Property Taxes via County Records
Most investors miscalculate property taxes and it can be extremely expensive Here’s how to do it right: Property taxes are usually re-assessed at sale. This means that you don’t underwrite the same property taxes the seller had They’re public info. So you're going...
City Apartment Types Impact Family Retention and School Budgets
This is another reason why cities should care about the TYPE of apartments being built. Keeping children and families is critically important, both as a thing that is “Good” and because losing children is financially ruinous to city school budgets
Fewer People, Less Housing; Global Compute Limits Remain Unclear
Obviously, a country with a declining population doesn’t need unlimited residential construction. Much less clear what are the limits to compute needed by the entire world.
Tampa Bay Vacancy Hits 8.7%, Sparking Vertical Growth
What's going on in the Tampa Bay area? Apartment vacancies just spiked to 8.7%. Haven't seen anything like this in 10+ years. They're going vertical. https://t.co/EXZxZsIT13
2026 Demands Higher Caps—Don’t Wait for Naive Buyers
Dear sellers stuck in the past: A property we’re about to list with a broker would’ve sold at a 4.75% cap in 2021. It will be listed at a 6.25% cap. Why are we selling at a 24% discount to 2021? Because it’s...
Speed Trumps Higher Margins in Home Building
These firms are primarily solving for speed of construction and sales and maximal return on each equity dollar. A 20% margin home they can build and sell in 3 months is BETTER than a 40% margin in 6 months 1.2^4 =2.0736x 1.4^2...
US Stalls Progress: Regulations, Not Tech, Hold Back Innovation
Why is it so damn hard to do big things in America? Australia has 40% rooftop solar. We have 6%. We can build beautiful homes in a factory for $300k delivered. Local regs block it. The technology isn't the problem. We are. https://t.co/IBSjsr4eDl
Florida Inventory Drops; National Growth Slows to 5.7%
Did you know Florida's inventory is down year over year? Also, the growth rate of inventory nationally decreased from 33% to 5.69%. With a HousingWire subscription, you can access local, state, city, and ZIP code data with multiple data points....
ICE Purchases Warehouses to House Detainees
ICE is buying up warehouses … for people. Great article in the Wall Street Journal featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/sIvP3Dpgd7
Apollo Plans Second Headquarters in a Red‑state Location.
NEW: Apollo wants a 2nd HQ outside of NYC and will put it in a red state: https://t.co/geTbHJ1Vla https://t.co/CRqBAkfAcy
Builders Will Match Demand When Buyers Pay Enough
If people were generally willing to pay this … I’m confident Lennar and DR Horton would build it that way Those firms are **dialed in** on costs and demand
Florida Inventory Drop Reflects Elevated Base, Not 2008 Crisis
Be mindful that the inventory decline we are seeing in Florida was working from an elevated level, and since it's not 2008 or worse than 2008, the decline needs context on a year-over-year basis. Try not to overthink this one,...
US Churches Build Housing to Ease Shortage
YIGBY: "Putting the ‘lord’ in ‘landlord’: US churches step up to build housing amid Shortage" https://t.co/dEni2mt4QL https://t.co/nAO87eJOWf
Barcelona Shows Public Housing Can Be Beautifully Designed
If Barcelona can build public housing as beautiful as this, so can we. MBM Arquitectes and 4RQ Arquitectura
Seek Low‑Competition Markets for Mispricing‑Driven Returns
People go about choosing a market all wrong. RE investors make money on mispricings Less competition means less price discovery which means more mispricings which makes it easier to generate outsized returns So your main criteria for a market should be "place...
Terafab Could Dwarf Global AI Compute Capacity
If Terafab actually gets built it will be one of the largest industrial projects ever. High level stats: - semiconductor factory designed to do everything in one place (design, manufacturing, testing, packaging) - first building will be in Austin and ~ 2M sq...
Texas Triangle Dominates U.S. Population Growth Rankings
Long the Texas Triangle. ✅ 4 of the Top 10 US MSA's with the most population growth are located in Texas and 5 of the Top 10 counties. ✅ 3 of the Top 10 counties are in the Houston MSA
Housing Data Stays Steady Amid Global Turmoil
Considering all the drama we have had all year, AI, private credit, and an epic snowstorm, and now the Iran conflict, the housing data has been mostly stable & boring for now
Pasadena Seeks Exemption From Transit‑friendly SB 79 Amid Rising Rents
Even as rents rise, Pasadena is trying to get carved out from SB 79, a bill that would make it easier to build apartments near transit. https://t.co/8Ku8qFkpZW
Rowhomes: Cozy 14‑16‑Foot Width Ideal for Families
One of the reasons I love rowhomes is because they are 14-16’ wide Narrow, family size homes https://t.co/84eesIRj7C
2012: Rare Generational Home‑Buying Opportunity via Peak Affordability
... and 2012 was a generational chance to buy a home... US Housing Affordability Index hit an all-time high then.. (moderate prices, low mortgage rates, recovering wages) @yardeni @realtors actually.. another @clementsmoney piece from me about that... https://t.co/PMNPDGiYEc https://t.co/zwLHFnQpRR
Mortgage Rates Have Surged Far Beyond 4.95%
4 years ago, we thought a 4.95% mortgage was steep. That was cute. #OTD from me on @ClementsMoney https://t.co/nU3mkGlWHf https://t.co/aecygolvLT
Iran War Triggers Four-Week Mortgage Rate Surge
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
Housing Ratios Ignore Location and Unit Condition
This is why it's really dumb to look at population-to-housing ratios or compare homelessness to vacancy. You have to account for: A) location / neighborhood (growing areas versus shrinking areas), and B) condition / age of housing unit.
Visit Before Buying: Remote Property Success Strategies
"You can't buy properties out of state" This is comically wrong. I've never even bought a property in a state I lived in Here's how to operate deals remotely: First off - a lot of people think you can buy a property sight...