Rates Slip Even as Inflation Heat Rises
Why did rates and bond yields drop today despite a hot inflation report? #Labor over #inflation. #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
Strategic Low Pricing Sparks 94 Offers in Sacramento
There is a property with 94 offers in Sacramento County. This is an insane amount, but this isn't about the market. It's about pricing strategically low. The list price was $199K, the very lowest sales are $300K, and similar-sized flips...
Lawmakers Push Tax Reforms to Curb Investor Housing Advantage
Lawmakers eye tax changes to tackle institutional investors in housing: Semafor "this is not a free market for the American family, because investors… have special tax write-offs… that aren’t available to single families" -Rep. Marlin Stutzman, R-Ind. https://t.co/4JRvuFhZMv
Named CoStar Power Broker After Sharing All My Comps
The CoStar power broker awards have been announced. Do I dare open my LinkedIn timeline? " I am thrilled and humbled to be named a CoStar Power Broker because I gave them all my comps"
Medical Office Starts Plunge 26%, Prompting Conversion Challenges
Medical office building starts are set to drop 26% in 2026 ... the lowest level in ten years. Developers are turning their attention to office conversions. But even then, the building's design and the math have to be spot on...
Housing Market Trends Outpace Presidential Influence
Home prices were already slowing down before Trump took office, and many markets went negative last year. I don’t think any president can really control the direction of the housing market. https://t.co/LoaiFTlI85
U.S. Home Prices Stagnate, Punta Gorda & Austin Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in January; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 22% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased
MBS Spread Re
After the White House confirmed that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac would increase their retained MBS by $200B, the 'spread'—which had already been compressing—slipped sub 200 bps for the first time in more than 3 years Today is first +200 bps spread since...
Luxury Builds Reduce Affordable Housing, Not Trickle‑down
As Max and others often point out: The more apartments you build for the wealthy, the fewer wealthy people living in moderate- and lower-priced apartments... thereby creating more affordable supply. It's not "trickle down economics." (Different thing.) It's just common sense.
AI-Driven Recession Threatens Benefits of Lower Mortgage Rates
Cheering for lower mortgage rates has always been a delicate balance of hoping for payment relief w/o a wider economic downturn. In other words, getting a cheaper 30-year fixed without a big increase in unemployment or a stock market crash. The fact...
Buyers Favor Fresh Listings Over Last Year's Inventory
Buyers are liking new supply. So many of the stats right now are showing spring vibes as crusty listings from last year expired, and buyers are focusing on the new stuff. https://t.co/OoyH4E4hAI
Canada's Red Tape Stalls Projects for Decades
Canada Is Being Destroyed By Bureaucracy & Over Regulation It takes an average of 19 years to get an approval to build a new Mine Australia's shipping Liquid Natural Gas to Canada's East Coast: Canada has 300 years of Gas Reserves Let's look...
Floor & Decor Targets 500 U.S. Stores in Eight Years
Floor & Decor FY23 10-K: "We believe there is an opportunity to significantly expand our warehouse-format store base by a low- to mid-teens annual percentage growth rate over the near-to-medium term, reaching at least 500 in the U.S. within approximately eight...
Mayor Secures Trump Funding for 12,000 Rail Yard Homes
It’s now confirmed that Mayor Zohran Mamdani spoke with Donald Trump about securing federal funding to build 12,000 homes on the Sunnyside Rail Yard, which is owned by Amtrak. The project feels like a no-brainer, but it’s never penciled out...
No Bad Offers—Pricing Reflects Risk, Fit Situation
I get questions about our home valuation every day. They usually sound like “they made a bad offer” - this is actually what’s happening: They selectively price low-risk homes aggressively. They keep wider spreads on higher-risk homes. When I look into bad offer...
Mayor Pushes 12,000‑unit Sunnyside Yards Development Plan
2 guys from #Queens talk #realestate. #MayorMamdani touts plan to build 12,000 units on #SunnysideYards. Probly w/need fed $$. 'It's important we connect nabes' #CRE #multifamily #affordablehousing #MitchellLama #NYC https://t.co/6WMns2brrh
OpenAI Secures Entire 450K‑SF Ellis Campus in Silicon Valley
OpenAI has signed a major office lease in Silicon Valley, taking over the entire five-building Ellis Campus in Mountain View, California. ▫️The deal adds roughly 450K SF to its portfolio. ▫️The campus, previously vacant, is now fully leased. https://t.co/uCAVhxWR83
Data Centers Must Fund Infrastructure, Not Expect Tax Breaks
It used to be that municipalities would give tax breaks for factories (jobs), but now the data center developers need to come with bags of money for infrastructure and the tax base.
Product-Level Demand Separates Winning Industrial Deals
The real opportunity right now? Understanding product-level demand. Not all industrial is equal in 2026. If you’re evaluating an industrial deal in California and want a disciplined underwriting perspective, DM me “INDUSTRIAL.” #CaliforniaCRE #IndustrialInvesting #WarehouseSpace #CREStrategy #CommercialInvestor
Rental Market Mirrors Resale: Lower Rents, Slower Turnover
I spoke at a property management event today, and the general consensus is the rental market is somewhat like the resale market. Slightly lower rents, it’s taking longer to market properties, the good stuff goes quickly, and overpriced listings sit.
Permits
Permits and builders' confidence data would be more solid if that were the case. https://t.co/N1nLoES68j
Institutional Home Ownership Boosts Rental Diversity, Not Affordability
The only empirical finding I've seen on the effect of institutional ownership of single-family homes is that it makes neighborhoods slightly more diverse, to the extent that rentals are more accessible to more households. The issue is an affordability red...
Rocket and Compass Join Forces to Challenge Zillow
Rocket and Compass team up in challenge to Zillow’s grip on housing Rocket Companies—which now also owns Redfin + Mr. Cooper—announced today a new partnership w/ Compass "Compass International Holdings' 'Coming Soon' listings will appear immediately on Redfin, with 'Private Exclusive' properties...
Physical Proximity Fuels Performance, Innovation, and Purpose
In an era of workplace disconnection and declining job meaning, physical presence and proximity still matter. Being together in shared spaces strengthens relationships, boosts performance, fuels innovation, increases engagement, and reinforces purpose.
Homeownership Up, America Not Turning Renter Nation
Is America becoming a renter nation? The answer is an unequivocable "no" according to U.S. Census data. Today's homeownership rate of 65.7% is: +0.6 ppts since pre-COVID +1.9 ppts since 10 years ago +0.4 ppts above the long-term average +0.9 ppts above the long-term median +1.0 ppt...
Shelter‑driven Inflation Easing as Vacancies Rise, Wages Slow
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
DR Horton Sells Atlanta Home at 26% Discount
This house, south of Atlanta, is priced at an astounding $120 PSF. 5 bedroom, 5 bath, 3,500 SF. DR Horton is the builder, and they're selling this at 26% discount to the industry cost for new construction ($162 PSF, per NAHB)....
Sub‑6% Mortgage Rates May Spur Buyer Confidence
Good to see Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey go sub-6% too. Not because it changes the math much, but because it will result in more positive news headlines and boost consumer sentiment. The type of stuff that can get prospective home...
SB 79: Infill Housing Near Transit, A Missed Environmental Victory
SB 79, which legalized hundreds of thousands of new infill homes within walking distance of transit, is perhaps the biggest environmental win of a generation, yet the old guard of environmentalism can't even recognize it as such.
Housing Market Snapshot: Latest Home Price Index Insights
Today’s podcast covers the state of the union housing talking points and the recent home price index reports @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy
Home Prices Need Multi‑Metric View, Not Just Median
What are home prices doing? Here’s a look at some traditional price metrics and a few price indexes. I think it’s important in today’s market to look beyond just the median and average. https://t.co/flulXSqx4R
Turn Idle Home Equity Into Productive Cash
"Equity in a home is unemployed Benjamins. Redeploying that equity puts those Benjamins to work." –Bryan Maddex* *Our favorite mortgage lender & financing expert. Learn more → https://t.co/6LQHDFuiBV
Rent Rolls Must Always Include Options and Option Rents
hey guys, I can't do much with a rent roll that doesn't show options and option rents/fmr - including that stuff should be standard 100% of the time
Bipartisan Bill Misattributes Housing Prices to Investors
The crazy train is getting crowded. We now have a bipartisan Senate bill to block large investors from buying houses. The entire premise is based on misinformation, which I'll lay out here: STATEMENT 1: One co-sponsor, Sen. Hawley, shared his rationale this...
Bozzuto Invests $1 B to Revitalize Aging Properties
Why developer Bozzuto Group is deploying $1 billion toward older buildings @CNBC @Bozzuto @Yardi #realestate #realestateinvesting #rent #housing https://t.co/xWwXMgYJvp
Houston Leads Top Five Markets for New MOB Construction
🏥 Top Markets for New MOB Construction 1⃣ Houston 2⃣ Memphis 3⃣ Kansas City 4⃣ Los Angeles 5⃣ El Paso & Washington DC https://t.co/WGeA6KolkA
NYC Homeowners Face Nearly 10% Property Tax Rise
NYC Home Owners do you think this is FREE? Property Taxes going up nearly 10%
Cava Targets 1,000 Locations, Sparking DC Retail Opportunities
Cava is aiming for 1,000 restaurants by 2032. The DC-based chain just hit $1.2B in revenue and plans to pass 500 units this year. Same-store sales were flat last quarter, but expansion is driving growth. They’re preparing for 100 openings a...
Treat California CRE as Distinct Markets, Not One
California isn’t one market — it’s multiple markets. Central Valley CRE and Coastal CRE require completely different underwriting strategies. If you analyze both the same way, you’ll misprice risk. Smart investors adjust their model based on geography. DM me “UNDERWRITE” if you want to...
Rental Vacancies Stay Low, Supporting Mortgage Rates
Rental vacancy data has been the quietly positive story for #mortgagerares for over a year now. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
First-Time Homebuyers Are Far Younger than 40
40-Year-Old Virgin was a funny movie, but it's not the age of the first-time home buyer in America https://t.co/wcVOoa450Q
Home Prices Stay Sticky Without Massive Supply Shock
The history of homeprices going back over 80 years. It's rare for nominal home prices to fall; it's super rare to have a massive nominal housing price crash. Home prices are sticky unless you have massive supply and distress sales...
Retailers Clash over Fulton Market’s Cultural Identity
From high fashion to fast food, retailers battle for soul of Chicago’s Fulton Market https://t.co/yHlUhchCi9’s-fulton-market
Affordable Housing Requires Suburban and Greenfield Development
PLEASE NOTE THIS IS **METRO** There is NO example of any City keeping housing costs low without building in the suburbs and greenfield as well.
Winning Deals Even With Money Left on Table
You can leave money in a deal and still win. It doesn't have to be "a perfect BRRRR" to be effective.
VRE Buyout Offers 5% Cap Rate, Minimal Downside
Good outline of the $VRE buyout. There’s probably a small chance of an overbid here. But, to be honest, probably close to zero, at a 5% implied cap rate. But we’ll see. Downside is only ~10% and the buyer isn’t walking, so...
Pending Contracts Near February 2025 Levels, Demand Remains Tame
Looks like pending contracts this month will match or slightly surpass February 2025. Here is a visual as of a couple days ago. Basically, buyer demand has been pretty tame still. Very slightly better. https://t.co/9ckA6qPxJo
Co
#RealEstate data giant #CoStar thinks of itself as a winner but thus far #WallSt treating it as a loser, as it fell below $45/share 1st X since 19. #Florance touts https://t.co/OfrVvw8tgH's new #AI platform, sees rivals as 'doomscrolls' #CRE ...
Stable City Prices only Where Greenfield Development Thrives
This can be laid at the feet of the suburbs not building: Long Island, West Chester, Connecticut, and North Jersey There is no market with stable CITY prices which has not see a TON of greenfield development.
Fed Vice Chair Urges Big Banks Return to Mortgages
Big banks retreated from mortgages after the 2008 housing crash—now this Fed governor wants them back After a decade+ of "migration" toward nonbanks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman says it's time to reconsider policy My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/6IY86V9OTy