Today's Stock Investing Pulse
Devon Energy’s $8B Marcellus Asset Offer Signals Aggressive Growth Post-Merger
Devon Energy completed its merger with Coterra, creating a larger diversified oil and gas operator. Stone Ridge Asset Management has signaled an $8 billion opening offer for Devon’s Marcellus assets, and the combined company expects to lift its dividend by roughly 30%.
Super Micro Stock Looks Like A Real Gift On Upcoming Business Stabilization
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) posted a blockbuster Q2 FY2026, delivering $12.68 billion in revenue—a 123% year‑over‑year surge that beat estimates by 22%. The company lifted its full‑year revenue outlook to $40 billion, reflecting accelerating demand for AI‑optimized servers. Operating efficiency improved as operating expenses fell to roughly 1.9% of sales, setting the stage for margin expansion. Analysts now see a potential 42% upside in the stock over the next 12‑24 months, driven by Nvidia’s next‑generation AI cycle.
Transitioning Annaly Capital And Its Undervalued Tax-Benefitted Preferred 'I' Shares
Annaly Capital is moving beyond its traditional agency mortgage REIT model, adding residential credit assets and mortgage‑servicing rights. The transition has left its common stock overvalued, trading above book value and showing a history of dividend cuts. In contrast, the...
Skip Risky Trades; Invest in Undervalued, Long-Term Stocks
Don’t day trade Don’t use options Don’t use leverage Don’t use margin Buy undervalued companies & focus on the long term What’s so difficult about this?
Did You Miss the Value Trade?
The latest five‑year data shows a pronounced resurgence in value investing, with a 9.0% global value premium and regional premiums ranging from 7.2% in the United States to 19.4% in Japan. Charts from Ken French’s data library and Verdad research...
The Neocloud Trojan Horse
Recent disclosures show neocloud players CoreWeave and Nebius planning $30‑35 billion and $16‑20 billion capex respectively by 2026, roughly a third of AWS's projected spend. Nvidia is repeatedly financing these firms, while Meta has pledged $12 billion for Nebius AI capacity through 2027...
Mid‑Cap Value Gems Thrive Outside Tech, Guided by Gentle Activism
Our chat with "gentleman activist" Alexander Roepers on: * Alexander Roepers’ Value Investing Strategy * Why Alexander Roepers Avoids Tech, Biotech, and Financial Stocks * Why Europe and Japan Offer Hidden Value Investing Opportunities * Three Catalysts That Unlock Value in Mid-Cap Stocks * The...
Adobe's Strong Fundamentals Counter AI‑Fear Concerns
$ADBE Q1 2026 Adobe has been getting hit with the AI fear. Investors are worried that software will start to lose market share as AI becomes increasingly more popular. $ADBE fundamentally though is strong. What are your thoughts, is it...
He Manages the Best-Performing Stock Mutual Fund of the Past 25 Years—Here's His Top Advice for Investors
Baron Opportunity Fund, managed by Michael Lippert for 20 years, posted the best 25‑year performance among mutual funds, delivering a 13% annualized return versus the S&P 500's 6.8%. Lippert attributes the outperformance to a disciplined focus on long‑term growth companies with...
4 Internet Delivery Services Stocks to Watch in a Flourishing Industry
Zacks highlights four internet‑delivery stocks—GoDaddy, Vipshop, QuinStreet and MakeMyTrip—as well‑positioned amid rising smartphone use and expanding middle‑class consumers in emerging markets. The sector benefits from deeper internet penetration but still faces macro headwinds, including inflation, high interest rates and tariff...
Best 2 Tech Stocks to Buy Now on the Dip for 90% Upside
Intuit and Salesforce plunged 35% and 27% at the start of 2026 as AI‑related fears rattled SaaS valuations, leaving both stocks about 45% below their all‑time highs. Despite the sell‑off, each company reports solid earnings growth and aggressive AI integration...
Big Gains Come From Rare Deep Market Corrections
Since 1950, the average drawdown in the S&P 500 has been 14% in a calendar year, and drawdowns of at least 10% have occurred in 37 of the past 75 years. 20%+ corrections have occurred in 11 out of the past...
With an Overconfident Government in an Unforgiving World, Investors Should Be Strategic About Canadian Holdings
The article warns that Canada’s overconfident, net‑zero‑focused policy stance is leaving its vast energy and critical‑mineral endowments under‑invested as the United States races to secure AI‑related supply chains. Regulatory layers and cancelled pipeline projects have eroded infrastructure capacity, making the...
KXI: Consumer Staples Dashboard For March
The March Consumer Staples Dashboard highlights that beverages are markedly undervalued, while food, household products, and personal care show 10%‑14% undervaluation, though quality varies across sub‑segments. The iShares Global Consumer Staples ETF has underperformed the State Street XLP fund since...
NatWest: We're Raising Our Fair Value Estimate as We See Bank's Franchise Value Strengthening
Morningstar lifted NatWest Group's fair‑value estimate to GBX 710 per share, up from GBX 550, after a strong fourth‑quarter 2025 showing 18% return on tangible equity and expanding deposit margins. The firm raised its mid‑cycle profitability assumptions, citing a durable structural hedge...
Galliford Try: A Building Firm That's Worth a Punt
Galliford Try, a UK‑based construction group, operates across building, infrastructure and specialist services, limiting reliance on any single market. The firm has accelerated growth through targeted acquisitions and a push into affordable housing, driving revenue up 67% and more than...
When the Supply Chain Breaks, Europe’s Boring Small Caps Quietly Win
The market narrative claims supply‑chain disruptions have crushed European small‑cap stocks, driving investors toward large U.S. mega‑caps. In reality, many European firms with modest market capitalisation have insulated earnings through diversified suppliers and localized production. Their valuations have fallen disproportionately,...
Missing 10 Best S&P Days Halves Your Returns
Every time the market goes down, I'm always reminded of this chart. It was created by Visual Capitalist in 2023. It shows the impact on an investor's return by simply missing the 10 best days of the S&P 500's returns...
Partner Insight: Are Investors Missing a Trick by Overlooking Global Mid and Small-Caps?
Global mid‑ and small‑cap equities have delivered superior long‑term performance, generating a 107% excess return over large‑caps across the past 25 years. Their Sharpe ratios also surpass those of large‑caps, indicating better risk‑adjusted outcomes. The segment offers diversification benefits, with...
The Best 4 Retail Stocks to Buy and Hold for Decades
The article highlights four retail giants—Amazon, Walmart, Costco and Home Depot—as the top long‑term holdings for investors. Amazon commands roughly 40% of U.S. e‑commerce sales, while Walmart posted $706 billion in net sales for fiscal 2026. Costco’s membership model generates high‑margin...
Oil Prices Near $100 Are Tempting Investors -- but History Says Panic Buying Energy Stocks Is a Big Mistake
Crude oil is edging toward the $100‑a‑barrel mark, reigniting enthusiasm for energy equities. While the price rally looks attractive, history warns that impulsive, panic‑driven buying often backfires. Investors are urged to scrutinize balance sheets, cash‑flow stability, and each company’s position...
Nigeria Seeks to Unlock Liquidity From Tightly Held Stocks
Nigerian regulators are reassessing free‑float rules for listed firms to increase market liquidity and attract capital. The current framework requires at least 20% public shareholding or 40 billion naira of tradable shares, but many large companies remain tightly held by controlling...
Japan Stocks Face Earnings Risk as Iran Conflict Lifts Oil Costs
Japan’s equity rally, driven by robust corporate earnings, is now under pressure as the Iran‑Israel conflict lifts crude prices. Brent crude sits around $104 a barrel, roughly 50 % above last year’s average, and a 10 % jump in Brent could shave...
Hedge Funds Pump $600 Million Into Microsoft:
Hedge funds Altimeter Capital and Chilton Investment have markedly increased their Microsoft holdings, with Altimeter expanding to over $601 million and Chilton boosting its stake by roughly 4%, making the stock its largest position at about 10% of assets under management....
Palantir Vs. Amazon: Which AI Stock Is a Better Buy Now?
Palantir posted a 70% year‑over‑year revenue surge in Q4 and a 250% jump in net income, but its market cap of over $360 billion translates to a sky‑high 240× trailing‑12‑month earnings multiple. The company’s total contract value growth is decelerating, hinting...
2026 Equity Risk Premium Update for Practitioners Released
The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that...
Equities' Future Value Lies in Expected Cash Flows
One of the best articulations of the long-term economics question in equities right now. We sleep on a bed of prosperity lined with the expectation of future cash flows.
Is Cintas Corporation (CTAS) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Cintas Corp (CTAS) trades around $204 per share, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 43.3 and 37.2 respectively. Its route‑based uniform and facility‑services model generates recurring revenue and enables highly profitable cross‑selling during a single delivery. Earnings have consistently...
Is General Mills, Inc. (GIS) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
General Mills (GIS) shares were $43.57 on March 5, with a trailing P/E of 9.37 and forward P/E of 11.86, suggesting a low valuation relative to peers. The company commands leading market share in cereals, snacks, baking and pet food, leveraging...
Growth Stocks Are Getting Riskier. This ETF Historically Holds Up Better
Growth stocks have lost momentum in 2026, with the Vanguard Growth ETF slipping 7% year‑to‑date, lagging both the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF’s 3% loss and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal‑Weight ETF’s 1% gain. Persistent inflation near 3% and a stalled labor market...
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) is being pitched as a high‑growth optical‑hardware play, with analysts forecasting at least 50% year‑over‑year revenue growth and a forward sales multiple of roughly 13 times. The company’s operating leverage has delivered expanding margins and strong cash‑flow conversion,...
Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) trades at $65.88, with a trailing P/E of 98.77 and forward P/E of 20.83, highlighting a steep valuation discount. The company leverages low‑cost U.S. natural‑gas feedstock to dominate polypropylene and polyethylene markets, sustaining strong margins. An 11.2%...
FXZ: A Quant-Based Fund Can Make The Most Out Of Basic Materials Bullish Trend
The First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund (FXZ) earned a buy rating thanks to its quant‑driven, diversified stock selection that outperformed traditional materials ETFs. The fund delivered a 17% year‑to‑date gain and a 37% return over the past twelve months, while...
Better Nuclear Energy Stock: Oklo Vs. Centrus Energy
Oklo and Centrus Energy announced a joint venture to develop HALEU de‑conversion services and strengthen related fuel‑cycle supply chains. Oklo is advancing its Aurora sodium‑cooled fast‑reactor platform, backed by a Meta‑prepaid 1.2 GW power campus in Ohio slated for 2030‑34. Centrus,...
Is Apple Inc. (AAPL) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Apple’s stock trades near $260 with a trailing P/E of 32.9 and forward P/E of 30.4, reflecting premium valuation despite modest revenue growth. The company’s integrated hardware‑software ecosystem generates high switching costs, double‑digit net margins, and roughly $100 billion in annual...
Bill Nygren Explains How Value Investors Navigate Geopolitical Market Shocks
Bill Nygren, Oakmark CIO, explained that value investors look five to seven years ahead, estimating a company’s future worth and buying at a discount regardless of geopolitical or energy‑related market shocks. He emphasized that short‑term macro events rarely alter a...
Capital‑light Models Boost Returns on Reinvested Cash
"Capital-light models amplify the power of reinvested cash flows." 💡 Want your money to work harder without tying up massive capital? Capital-light investment models are game-changers.l
The Iran Crisis Is Hitting KiwiSaver Balances – but Market Volatility Can Work for You Too
New Zealanders watching their KiwiSaver balances see declines as oil prices jump above $100 per barrel following the US‑Israeli attack on Iran. Higher oil costs drive inflation, interest‑rate hikes and reduced corporate profits, pushing global equity markets lower, including the...
Inc Mag: “Big Tech Stocks Like the Magnificent 7 Suddenly Look Cheap”
DataTrek Research reports that the technology sector is trading at a 9.3% discount to its five‑year average valuation, while the broader S&P 500 benchmark carries a 6% premium over recent history. All other S&P 500 sectors remain above their five‑year averages, meaning...
Trim the Bulk, Let Outliers Drive Returns
The 80/20 rule is just a Power Law in disguise. Often, in a portfolio: 📈 20% of your holdings will drive 80% of your returns. 📉 80% of your stress will come from 20% of your "average" bets. The secret to long-term success? Cutting...
Tech Gap, AI Disruption, and Defense Supercycle Insights
We covered a lot of ground this week on @excessreturnpod with new interviews featuring Jim Paulsen, Vitaliy Katsenelson, and Joseph Shaposhnik. @CultishCreative and I highlight the best moments and break down the biggest lessons. https://t.co/Hklp9wx0tH • The growing gap between tech and the...
Veeva Model Update
The author has released an updated financial model for Veeva Systems, incorporating the latest quarterly data and revised assumptions. The update follows a series of prior deep‑dive analyses published in September 2024 and December 2023. The new model adjusts growth...
Invest Early, Retire Richer: 10 Years Beats 25
This is crazy: If you are 35 and start investing $5k/yr and stop at 60, you will have ~$431,754 (8%/yr assumption) But if you are 25, start investing $5k/yr and stop at 35, you will have ~$615,580 at 60 (8%/yr assumption) $75k less...
Invest by Following Crowds Selectively, Seek Misunderstood Resilient Niches
As Charles Mackay observed in 1841, "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one." We are social creatures whose...
Restaurant Stocks Are Struggling to Start 2026. Where to Find Buying Opportunities
Restaurant stocks are lagging in 2026, with the S&P 500 Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure index down about 4% while the broader market falls 1.8%. Weight‑loss GLP‑1 drugs, lingering inflation and a softening labor market are depressing away‑from‑home spending, especially for quick‑service...
Higher Stock Returns Reward Higher Risk
The only reason why stocks have a higher long-term return than bonds and cash is to compensate investors for taking on the greater risk of uncertainty, volatility and drawdowns along the way. Without this risk there would be no higher reward....
Foreign Value Stocks Cheap Due to Lack of Ownership
Foreign value stocks are cheap but nobody owns any, which is probably why they are cheap, which is probably why nobody owns any. https://t.co/xW57r2cQMq via @followMFS https://t.co/CPa6Gwx7K8
Vanguard Predicts 4.8% Annual Return for US Large Caps
Vanguard forecasts US large caps to return 4.8% annually over the next decade. Large-cap growth: 3.9% https://t.co/THci6XvvJc
Shift4 Payments: 7x FCF and 20%+ Growth
New writeup: Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube 7x free cash flow for a business compounding at 20%+ $FOUR Link in bio https://t.co/R6SWOw4hoQ
UBS Projects 9.5% Total Return for AV by 2028
'Investors' Chronicle' p39 this week mentions UBS expectation of a 9.5% yield from #AV. for 2028, comprising Dividend payment and Share Buybacks.
Group Investments by Risk, Not Asset Class, for Smoother Returns
How a "total portfolio approach" that groups investments by risk and performance characteristics (rather than asset class) could lead to a smoother ride for investors (@JasonKephart | @MorningstarInc) More curated articles on investment planning this #WeekendReading: https://t.co/L80cXNYxuT