Today's Stock Investing Pulse
Devon Energy’s $8B Marcellus Asset Offer Signals Aggressive Growth Post-Merger
Devon Energy completed its merger with Coterra, creating a larger diversified oil and gas operator. Stone Ridge Asset Management has signaled an $8 billion opening offer for Devon’s Marcellus assets, and the combined company expects to lift its dividend by roughly 30%.
![ASML: Competing with Moore’s Law - [Business Breakdowns, REPLAY]](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://megaphone.imgix.net/podcasts/5a391928-ccce-11ed-863b-7bdbc773faf2/image/55364bb6a294c4be08365a4dccb94c73.jpg?ixlib=rails-4.3.1&max-w=3000&max-h=3000&fit=crop&auto=format,compress)
ASML: Competing with Moore’s Law - [Business Breakdowns, REPLAY]
In this episode Matt Russell and Bailey Gifford portfolio manager Tom Walsh dissect ASML’s rise from a struggling Philips spin‑out to the unrivaled supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines that power today’s AI‑driven semiconductor manufacturing. They explain the fundamentals of photolithography, how EUV became essential for continuing Moore’s Law, and highlight the visionary leadership of CEO Peter Wennink and CTO Martin Vandenbrink that drove relentless R&D investment. The discussion also covers ASML’s financials—€21 bn revenue in 2022 projected to €32 bn by 2025 with gross margins above 50%—and its dominant market share, underscoring why the stock has outperformed despite low unit volumes.
Contrarian Opportunity? Freee 4478 JP Faces Unexpected Negativity
Very surprised by the negativity surrounding Freee 4478 JP. I'm either completely wrong, or in it's a highly contrarian buy. https://t.co/ihtyiQ5SFt
KOSPI's Memory Chip Weight
What is he on about? KOSPI is like 50% memory chip exposure and earnings estimates have gone up. The people day-trading are local retail investors, but they’re still mostly focused on US tech. https://t.co/ebX1YOmoN2
The Boeing Company (BA): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value
Each week we run a DCF model on Boeing, arriving at an intrinsic share price of roughly $85, far below the current market level near $230. The analysis uses a 10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth, and forecasts free cash...
PBM Critics Overlook Their Owners' Low, Stagnant Margins
So I've read a few long essays on how abusive pharmaceutical benefit managers and group purchasing organizations are, and they all make a strong case. And then I look at the companies that own PBMs, and their margins are a)...
Investors Rotating From US Tech to Commodities and Bonds
"We are in the first phase of a great rotation away from the US FANG+ and related stocks, semiconductor, and AI software companies towards oil & gas, utilities, emerging market, and resource stocks, and Treasury bonds." - Marc Faber
Is Elastic N.V. (ESTC) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) posted $1.48 billion revenue in FY25, up 17% year‑over‑year, with cloud sales climbing 26% and subscriptions comprising roughly 94% of the mix. The company’s Elastic Stack, an open‑source platform with over 5.5 billion downloads, is now positioned as core...
Japanese Stocks Surge; Fund Gains 6.7% Amid Yen Drag
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
FNDA: Small Value ETF Beating The Benchmark But Lagging Some Peers
The Schwab Fundamental US Small Company ETF (FNDA) uses the RAFI fundamental weighting to deliver diversified small‑cap exposure with a value tilt and solid dividend growth. Since its inception, FNDA has beaten the Russell 2000 benchmark in both raw return and...
VOE Seems Best In Its Peers As Mid Cap Value Is Outshining In 2026
The Vanguard Mid‑Cap Value Index Fund ETF (VOE) is outpacing both large‑cap and peer mid‑cap funds in 2026, driven by a broad value‑sector rally. Its portfolio leans toward stable, upper‑mid‑cap industrials, financials and utilities, delivering a low 0.05% expense ratio...
Excluding Autocracies Boosts Emerging Market ETF Returns
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
This Stock Got Caught up in the Software Sell-Off. Stephanie Link Says It's the Perfect Time to Buy
Synopsys (SNPS) saw its stock tumble more than 32% as the broader software sector faced an AI‑driven sell‑off, yet the company still commands a 41% share of the electronic‑design‑automation market and posted a 43% rise in its contract backlog. CEO...
Micron: What Exploding Memory Prices Mean for Investors
Micron Technology is benefiting from an unprecedented surge in memory prices, driven by a tight supply of high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and soaring demand from hyperscale cloud providers. The price rally has pushed Micron's gross margins to historic levels and set...
Veeva FY4Q'26 Update
Veeva Systems posted a strong FY4Q’26, reporting $836 million in revenue versus the $811 million consensus. Revenue grew 16% year‑over‑year, outpacing operating expense growth of roughly 7%, which helped lift the LTM GAAP operating margin to a record 28.7%. Gross margin dipped...
Saba Capital Launches UK Investment Trust ETF: UKIT
Saba Capital Management has launched the UKIT, an actively managed UCITS ETF that invests in UK‑domiciled investment trusts trading at sizable discounts to net asset value. The fund targets a diversified portfolio of 40‑60 trusts across equities, bonds, real estate...
BMO Upgrades This Plastics Manufacturer as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Supply
BMO Capital Markets upgraded Westlake Corp., a U.S. plastics and construction‑materials maker, to Outperform and raised its price target to $127, implying roughly a 20% upside. The upgrade follows the Middle East conflict that has shut down the Strait of...
Loop Capital Thinks This Chip Manufacturer Could More than Double on an AI ‘Super Cycle’
Loop Capital has initiated Astera Labs (ALAB) with a buy rating and a $250 price target, implying roughly 120% upside from its recent close. The analyst positions Astera as the most diversified AI‑silicon pure‑play outside Nvidia, poised to benefit from...
This Airline Stock Is the Most at Risk From Higher Jet Fuel Prices as U.S.-Iran War Continues, Says Rothschild
Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded American Airlines to neutral and cut its price target to $12.5 from $17, citing heightened exposure to jet‑fuel price spikes amid the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict. The analyst highlighted that a 10‑cent per‑gallon increase in fuel...
Bear of the Day: Autohome (ATHM)
Autohome (ATHM) is confronting structural headwinds as its revenue has slipped roughly 30% from the 2020 peak and analyst earnings forecasts continue to be trimmed. The slowdown in China’s automotive market and heightened competition among online auto platforms have eroded...
Derek Pilecki on Long/Short Financials Investing, Regional Banks, Non-Banks and Insurance | S08 E08
In this episode, Derek Pilecki of Gator Capital discusses why small‑cap and regional banks are deeply undervalued, trading well below historic 10‑14x PE ranges, and outlines his deep‑value, long/short strategy focused on financial services. He explains the lingering effects of...
Price Determines a Stock’s Investment Merit
"The price [of a security] is frequently an essential element, so that a stock may have investment merit at one price level but not at another." ~ Ben Graham Price changes everything.
Record Large‑Cap vs Small‑Cap Spread Signals Hidden Opportunities
“The spread between large-caps and small-caps is the widest we’ve ever seen.” Rob Arnott joins us on @excessreturnpod to discuss historic valuation gaps, AI expectations, investing in periods of conflict and why the biggest opportunities may be where investors aren’t looking....
UOBKH’s ‘Alpha Picks’ Outperform STI in February; Keppel, Singtel Added for March
UOB Kay Hian’s Alpha Picks portfolio outperformed the Straits Times Index in February, delivering a 3.9% equal‑weighted gain versus the STI’s 1.8% rise. The brokerage rebalanced for March, adding defensive large‑caps Huating Global, Keppel and Singtel while trimming exposure to...
Dollar Rises, Treasuries Fall: Safety Flight Redefined
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
Probabilistic GDOT Analysis Shows Inevitable Math Outcomes
Just published a writeup on $GDOT, the math is inevitable. (I am being playful, the math is probabilistic. DYODD, see disclaimers in my post, linked below:) https://t.co/ZjGJRg0ROs
The Small-Cap Rotation Is Real
Small‑cap indices have surged, with the S&P 600 up about 9% YTD and the S&P 400 gaining over 8%, while the S&P 500 remains flat. The rally is tied to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, which has lowered rates to 3.5‑3.75% and eased...
Novo Nordisk and Weightwatchers Extend Collaboration to Germany
Novo Nordisk expands partnership with Weightwatchers to Germany. Dream team. Love to see it. $NVO $WW
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Orion Properties Inc (ONL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Orion Group Holdings reported $852 million revenue for 2025, a year‑over‑year increase, with operating income of $15 million and adjusted EBITDA of $45 million, translating to $0.25 adjusted EPS. The Marine segment delivered $545 million revenue and doubled its adjusted EBITDA margin to 10%,...
Small‑cap Surge Signals Regime Shift Away From Growth
S&P 600 up 9% YTD. S&P 500 flat. Tech lagging. Energy leading. Value crushing growth. This isn't a head fake. This is a regime change. The small-cap rotation is real and it's getting started. https://t.co/AYVusIGbRd
Third Point Secures New, Undisclosed Stake in Generac
$GNRC Dan Loeb’s THIRD POINT has a big new stake in Generac Holdings (GNRC). NEW, previously undisclosed CONFIRMED
From Tesla to Your 401(k): How to Invest in the Elon Musk Stock Without Wrecking Your Retirement
Tesla’s meteoric rise has sparked FOMO, but piling into the stock isn’t prudent for retirement savers. A diversified, long‑term portfolio—often an S&P 500 index fund—already provides indirect exposure to Musk’s companies. Investors should audit their holdings, cap any single‑stock position (commonly...
Learning Co‑Investing Secrets by Watching Benchmark’s Five Partners
In 1999-2000 Craig McCaw asked me to spend a lot of time working in the Benchmark offices on Sand Hill Road to find areas where co-investment was possible. I never learned so much, as Yogi Berra famously said, "just by...
STUB Trades at Deep Discount Despite Strong Margins
Took a $STUB starter this morning. At ~$9/sh, EV of ~$3.4B represents ~8x 2026 EBITDA guide MP & ~22x RR FCF. Regulatory resale (~10% GMS) risks appear discounted. This is deeply discounted to any reasonable comp set for a scaled marketplace with...
The Best Playbook for Investing During a War Is Usually Doing Nothing
The New York Times argues that the best response to the Iran‑Israel conflict‑driven market turbulence is to stay the course. While short‑term speculation in energy, defense stocks, gold or Treasuries can appear tempting, academic research shows that most investors achieve better...
Exploring SpaceX IPO, Covid Legacy, iPod's Music Revolution
✍️ Longform links: a look at a potential SpaceX IPO, the long-term health impacts of Covid, and how the iPod changed our relationship with music. https://t.co/6bSrheJuzD image: https://t.co/vMSvzVUcJK https://t.co/8bTwTklNAR
US Stocks Maintain Record 15-Year Outperformance Stretch
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
True Quality Endures Beyond Changing Conditions
Quality is an idea, a piece of artwork, a business, a relationship, or even a book that keeps working (providing value) even after conditions change over time. Quality is an interesting topic because it’s one of the most overused terms...
SpaceX's $1.75T IPO Dream Defies $20B Revenue Reality
SpaceX provably has revenues of less than $20bn and loses money after the merger with xAI, but is targeting a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. So FTAV explored how Musk might try to pull off what could be the biggest bagholder operation...
FPIs Net Buy 22,000 Cr Equity In
FPIs bought 22,000 cr in equity in Feb. (And uhem, they sold 17K cr. on Monday + Wednesday) https://t.co/bmXFAXJ1aZ
Korea's CompanyGuide Mirrors Japan's Handbook, Use Chrome Translate
Korea's version of the "Japan Company Handbook" is essentially FnGuide's CompanyGuide website. Not available in English but you can you use Translate in Google Chrome. https://t.co/I0HU3TxRNN
Kaspi's 9% Yield Highlights Strong Moat Despite Accounting Opacity
Kaspi now yields 9%, for what undoubtedly a very moaty business (no views on its accounting) https://t.co/EuZ6Ogfo3P
Korea’s Chip Output Drops, Shifts to High‑Bandwidth Memory
Didn’t realize how much Korean chip production has fallen in the past few months, as it’s shifting towards high bandwith memory. Source: Robeco https://t.co/I5YOwPS4OL
U.S. Large‑Cap Stocks Overpriced by 176% Historically
Large caps are extremely expensive, well beyond 3 standard deviations above average, but back a little from last year's all-time high. These two charts come from long-run valuation work (Advisor Perspectives / Crestmont style datasets) and show how expensive the U.S....
Growth Dominance Hits 30‑Year High, May Be Peaking
We are moving away from the most extreme growth-over-value cycle peak in modern history. On a relative basis, the expensive vs. value ratio is now back to the 2021 Meme stock peak, which was then higher than at any...
Google Trends Predict HelloFresh Revenue Decline Ahead
Google trends for HelloFresh has been tracking at ~20% year-over-year declines for the last two years. It was a pretty solid leading indicator for revenue declines. But look what’s happening now 👀 2026 guidance to be revealed on March 18 could...
War Won’t Sustain Defense Stock Multiples, Says Analyst
Lockheed Martin up 6% Monday. Down 1.3% today. The defense trade isn't fading because the war is ending. It's fading because the market is starting to realize war doesn't fix earnings multiples. https://t.co/xXNtusNgkE
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
Market Values Future Risk over Current Earnings
MongoDB: Revenue up 27%. Beat on earnings. Rule of 40. Record cash flow. Stock: Down 22%. Why? Two top execs left. Guidance light. The market doesn't care what you did. It cares what you're about to lose. https://t.co/u0W819CWth
Company Completes $400M Share Buyback by December 2025
"As announced on October 2, 2025, the Board authorized the repurchase of $400 million of outstanding shares of Class A and Class B common from October 1, 2025, through October 1, 2026… The $400 million repurchase program was completed in...