Trade Trucking Stocks by Timing the Freight Cycle
A lot of X folks that no knowing about the freight cycle simply look at PE ratios in trucking and assume that trucking stocks are way overvalued, but have zero clue how the freight cycle works. When the freight market turns (like it has been), trucking stocks will shoot way up and can carry extremely high valuations. What they are missing is that as the freight market tightens, these trucking firms gain an enormous amount of operating leverage in terms of both volume (utilization) and pricing. That is why you can make a killing timing the freight cycle correctly and there are 100+ firms on Wall Street that play the freight cycle through public trucking stocks. Note: this also works in reverse. When the freight cycle peaks, look out below. It can get nasty, real fast. You don’t own trucking stocks, you trade them.
UP‑NS Merger's 2 M Truckload Claim Is Negligible
Union Pacific claims that’s its merger with NS would take 2m truckloads off the road each year. That is approx 6k trucks in total, roughly equivalent to Prime’s fleet. Pretty inconsequential in the big scheme of things.
SONAR Data Reveals Booming Industrial Demand Surge
SONAR has been signaling a manufacturing renaissance since November. Despite a lot of pushback I’ve received over past couple of months, it’s all in the high frequency freight data. Industrial demand is popping.
High‑frequency Freight Data Reveals SONAR’s Real‑time Signals
Not a prediction. I just monitor SONAR’s signals. It’s all in the high frequency freight data
Delays in Tariff Refunds Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly
"Tariff refund delays could cost U.S. taxpayers $700 million a month in interest, report finds" https://t.co/MHgXnrl4vk
Tanker Stocks Matter, Broader Economy Stays Unaffected
Yes. If you own tanker stocks it is. Not so much for the rest of the economy.
Judge Sets Deadline for Customs Tariff Refund Plan
🚨IEEPA REFUND UPDATE🚨 "Senior Judge Richard Eaton gave government counsel until Friday to prepare initial ideas on how customs could refund the tariffs to importers, without them having to file a lawsuit." More, please.
CBP Admits Delay, Conditional Refunds on Illegal Tariffs
Here's CBP in a new filing admitting: 1) They're not voluntarily refunding IEEPA tariffs illegally collected last year 2) They're in no rush 3) They'll pay interest on "validated" refunds but will review everything for "violations" (that might allow them to deny refunds?)...
New SONAR Dashboard Tracks Surging Diesel and Oil Prices
In light of the surge in diesel and oil prices overnight, we have added a new fuel dashboard in SONAR. https://t.co/cAWkSzmzsr
US Must Pay Interest on All Tariff Refunds
"US to Pay Interest If Ordered to Pay Importers Tariff Refunds" https://t.co/An3drmGJ4F It is the law, after all. Question is: how many refunds actually get issued after a lengthy court/administrative battle. The answer should be: all, now. But... https://t.co/xGmrydPr1P
War Sparks Force Majeure Across Energy, Shipping, Sourcing Contracts
Middle East. Force Majeure. Will that be the result of the war? Energy contracts? Shipping contracts? Sourcing contracts? More.
Expiring War‑Risk Policies Prompt Shipowners to Prioritize Crew Safety
Remember, many of the war risk policies weren't set to expire until midnight (00:00 GMT) on March 5, six hours from now. Insurance hasn't been the only impediment to Hormuz transits so far. I like to think shipowners are taking...
UK Says Drone Attack Not Iranian‑launched
"MOD confirms Shahed-like drone which targeted RAF Akrotiri at midnight on March 2 was not launched from Iran." Ok, so who dunnit?
New Atlas Tool Tracks Iran War Shipping Disruptions
We just updated Flexport Atlas to better track disruption to container shipping from the Iran war. Go to https://t.co/W2RkZnA4nS and use hotkey “D” to toggle it on. Our status calculations (all real time) Stalled: stayed within 30 km radius for 24h ...
Trump’s Retreat Proves IEEPA Bans, Not Taxes
Assuming Trump backs off his Spanish Embargo threat (a safe assumption, IMO), it won't just be another TACO. It'll perfectly prove @ATabarrok's point here about why an emergency wartime law like IEEPA would allow a presidential import ban but not...
Pentagon Urges Miners to Secure Critical Minerals Before Iran Strike
The day before striking Iran, the Pentagon asked U.S. miners to help boost domestic supplies of 13 critical minerals, including nickel, graphite and several rare earths.
ArcBest Invests $175M in AI-Driven Freight Tech
Tech is central to @ArcBestCorp's next chapter. On Talking Transports, I speak with $ARCB CEO Seth Runser about managed transportation, AI-driven pricing, $175M annual tech investment & positioning for the next freight upcycle. 🎧 Listen: Apple: https://t.co/WAP6vhrJzk Spotify: https://t.co/C3HlIvcwW4 iHeart: https://t.co/totfMklli9 https://t.co/eCb5WV066Z: https://t.co/bbX2drmAGG Bloomberg Terminal:...
Asia‑Europe Air Cargo Capacity Drops 39% Amid Gulf Shutdown
The Loadstar - Air cargo capacity on key Asia-Europe corridors has fallen 39% following the shutdown of major Gulf airspace and hubs amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. https://t.co/XxAzcLFVzn https://t.co/VVlvHRVoSr
Shipping Lines Suspend Bookings, Reroute Vessels over Middle East Threats
Container shipping companies halt bookings, divert vessels due to Middle East risks https://t.co/WzcNxIAkRJ via @WSJ
Trump Trade War Slashes US Exports to China 19%
This is the big one, MUST READ Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown https://t.co/5eQUPlo1xx
Freight Brokers Must Safeguard Zyn and Nicotine Products
Freight brokers, what are you doing? You must protect the Zyn and other lip nic products
Validate Cloud SCM Fits Your Real Workflows
Manufacturers: how do you know if cloud SCM enhancements fit your reality? Assess future state operating models and product capabilities against your workflows and data. It's about how the software truly works day-to-day. #SCM #Cloud https://t.co/K8BkrmvMyN
Industrial Economy Gains Momentum, War Boosts Manufacturing
ISM and flatbed freight data are showing the same thing: the industrial economy is starting to ramp up. The war in Iran will also drive more strength in manufacturing, as military related manufacturing is approx 8% of all US domestic...
Countdown Clock Marks End of Section 122 Tariffs
Because this world needed a countdown clock for the end of Section 122 tariffs: https://t.co/fhDXSjks01 https://t.co/MvpXbuNHh5
US LNG Can't Quickly Replace Lost Qatari Cargoes
"There is little US LNG producers can do to immediately replace lost Qatari cargoes" https://t.co/ZAZe4MzpoI "American export plants are running nearly full tilt with most cargoes locked into long‑term contracts." https://t.co/3nYYZwRyaA
Collaborative Knowledge Sharing Transforms Manufacturing Industry
Explore the power of knowledge sharing in manufacturing with 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐬! Discover how overcoming challenges together and sharing insights can revolutionize the industry. Stream now: 🔗 https://t.co/JFMJsNopKK 📽️ https://t.co/La7geK8pNN 🔗 https://t.co/DmYp21NDA3 https://t.co/xUFgMTsjpi
Asian Tech Stocks Tumble Amid US‑Iran War Risk
Asian tech stocks reel as US-Iran war threatens infrastructure and supply chains https://t.co/oxpKfheSqI via @scmpnews
Nationwide Tightening Persists; only Atlanta Shows Loosening
As we roll into March, we continue to see signs that the tightening trend has legs. Blue markets = tightening momentum Orange markets = loosening momentum Atlanta is the only major market in the US that is experiencing a...
Arbiter's “Neutral” Review Simply Rehashes Old Tariffs
After a totally fair and neutral arbiter completes its not-at-all-reverse-engineered investigation and calculates totally unrigged tariff recommendations that just so happen to match the previous ones
South Asian Fertilizer Output Slips Amid Qatar LNG Outage
Fertilizer manufacturers in South Asia are beginning to cut output due to an outage at Qatar’s LNG export plant ⚠️ 🇮🇳 Some Indian manufacturers started reducing production at urea plans 🇵🇰 Pakistan’s gas distributor declared FM on to fertiliser plants https://t.co/LUjKJcUg25
China Keeps Aluminum Cap, Prices Hit New High
The timing of our China Macro Watch report on February 25 has proven fortuitous. In that note, we laid out why Beijing is unlikely to lift its 45mn-ton aluminum output cap — a policy that has effectively anchored global supply...
Trump's Hormuz Plan Could Hike India's Energy Costs
Trump’s Hormuz strategy may raise energy costs as India faces fertilizer and LNG supply risks | Mathrubhumi English https://t.co/BTL63LOcou
Geopolitics Threaten Chinese Firms' Access to Western Markets
What I don’t understand is the position of PRC companies. Do they want the headache of dealing with geopolitics? They’re competitive in their own right. If this goes on, Chinese products will be shut out of Western markets.
Red Sea Closure Threatens Shipping for Over Two Years
This sort of thing was enough to effectively “close” the Red Sea for 2+ years so we’ll see what happens
SPS Commerce Trades Cheap, Unusual Call Spread Amid Sale Push
I'll do this one public...always liked this Co. and is wildly cheap at these levels... Unusual Call Spread in High Quality Software Player at Record Cheap Valuation with Limited AI Disruption Risk SPS Commerce $SPSC with an interesting trade of 3/3 as...
Class 8 Truck Orders Jump 159% as Fleets Trust Recovery
Class 8 (“semis”) truck orders surged 159% YoY as fleets gain confidence in recovery https://t.co/hmyEmcDtbU
Industry Events Spark Unexpectedly Bullish Channel Outlook
We had teams at multiple industry events this week. Our channel checks came back far more bullish than expected.
Flatbed Haul Length Hits Record Low Amid Rising Demand
Flatbed length of haul is shrinking and currently at the lowest levels we’ve ever seen. This is despite the fact that demand continues to surge. We believe this is because flatbed demand increases are in the rust belt and tied...
Intermodal Rail Slashes Shipper Costs by 25%
Shippers that route freight by intermodal rail versus trucking are saving more than they have since 2022, approx 25% https://t.co/Xrb8PprDhI
Freight Rates Set for Fastest Rise Since 2022
The LMI, a survey of 400+ shipper executives, affirms that freight rates should see substantial increases in coming months as transportation capacity remains tight and should tighten further. “Transportation prices are expected to significantly expand over the next 12 months, with...
Procurement Leaders Must Prioritize Performance Management for Better Results
“#Procurement managers at all levels must invest significant effort in managing individuals’ performance to up their game. And the tactics employed must drive the desired capability, behaviors, and results.” 🔗 https://t.co/6geUHYOgNn #purchasing #supplychain https://t.co/zenBvK0dKe
Russian LNG Tanker Arctic Metagaz Explodes in Mediterranean
Meanwhile, in the Mediterranean, a Russian LNG tankers exploded. I mean what other SHIP can happen?
U.S. Navy Lacks Capacity to Guard Global Shipping
The US Navy and government are now the protectors of global shipping? So, what does it mean to fly an American flag versus that of Panama, Liberia or the Marshall Islands? The US Navy has stated they dont have the ships...
Rebuilding US Merchant Marine with Navy, Treasury Backing
Here is an idea, offer this to ships in the US registry and you rebuild the US merchant marine with the backing of the US Navy and Treasury.
Digital Twins Turn Real Factories Into Optimized Virtual Models
🤖 Imagine a video game version of your factory—except it’s real data. That’s a digital twin. Digital twins replicate real factories in virtual models for optimization, predictive maintenance, and efficiency. #DigitalTwin #SmartManufacturing #Innovation #FutureOfWork https://t.co/AXe1XCU7Sz
Europe Prioritized Red Sea, yet Deployed only Three Warships
It's great that allies are helping. And both France and UK have aircraft carriers that could help. But let's not forget that Europe was a LOT more concerned with keeping the Red Sea open than Biden was... yet, collectively, not...
Spain Faces Penalties for Blocking US Military Supply Ships
Spain is already under investigation and is facing severe penalties with @FMC_gov for denying US Merchant Marine ships carrying military supplies access to their ports: https://t.co/34RLfvlbYt
Networks, Not AI, Remain the True Competitive Moat
AI May Disrupt Software, But Networks Are the Real Moat - https://t.co/LqKYpiRYXJ @joinindago @ManhAssocBNL @Appian #SCON #supplychain #logistics #businessnetworks #AI
US Controls GPS, Prompting Rivals to Launch Independent Satellites
Umm… we own the GPS satellites. We can also just turn them off for non-military use. We did it in 2003 at the start of the Iraq war (although officially it was a “malfunction”) That’s the reason the EU, China and Russia built...
China’s Djibouti Base Watches, Could Act in Red Sea
Don’t forget: China has a naval base nearby in Djibouti. They have stood silently by for years watching the US and EU protect ships in the Red Sea without doing anything to help. But they could…
