Today's American Stocks Pulse
Dow climbs nearly 200 points to record close as oil eases on Iran truce hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 200 points, closing at a fresh all‑time high. The rally was driven by a pullback in oil prices after optimism surrounding a potential Iran truce. Markets remained cautious amid mixed political signals.
Investors Flee Tech for IRL Stocks & Trump Touts Economy in SOTU Address
In this episode, Neil Freiman and Toby Howell dissect the State of the Union, noting President Trump's focus on a booming economy despite public concerns over affordability and upcoming midterms. They introduce the "halo trade," a shift from high‑growth software stocks to heavy‑asset, low‑obsolescence companies like McDonald's, ExxonMobil, and John Deere, driven by AI‑induced fear of software disruption. The hosts also discuss the rise of prediction markets around political events and spotlight a new weather app, Acme Weather, that embraces forecast uncertainty. Throughout, they blend market analysis with cultural commentary, highlighting how investors and consumers are adapting to a changing economic landscape.
Broad Market Wins: Can't Beat VOO Long-Term
This AI is gonna kill software trade echoes the "Death of the Mall" trade from 10yrs ago which was to go long $AMZN and short $XRT (brick and mortar). ProShares made $CLIX, $EMTY and $ONLN to do trade for you....
Market Poised at Resistance Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
📺 THE MARKET IS COILED AT RESISTANCE AHEAD OF $NVDA $SPY is still trading within a clearly defined range, around $689, just below the $690 resistance. The key question today: do we clear $688.35–$690 before Nvidia earnings, or does the market...
Home Depot CEO Flags a Disconcerting Lack of Faith in the American Economy: ‘Our Customers Are Telling Us that They’re...
Home Depot reported a 13% drop in Q4 net earnings to $2.6 billion as a stalled housing market curtails home‑improvement spending. CEO Ted Decker said consumers lack confidence, delaying large projects despite low mortgage rates and ongoing price cuts in new...
Software Volatility Premium May Boost SPX to 7k
CRM and NVDA report tonight. I think the VRP in software stocks is interesting, as the vol is now higher that during the Apr 24 crash. Options spreads could do well even if the stocks disappoint. You can see this in...
Emerging Markets Outpace US Stocks Since 2024 Peak
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Are the Signs Pointing to Another Nasdaq-100 Correction?
The Nasdaq‑100 is showing a repeat of a historic pattern where the index climbs while fewer components stay above their 200‑day moving average, a signal that preceded >20% corrections in 2021 and 2024. The metric has again slipped, and the...
Liquidity, Not Earnings, Halts Market Rally
What happened to the stock market? The market rally has come to a HALT. Earnings and innovation are not the problem, liquidity is.
NVDA Hits 2026 High, but False Breakout Looms
All eyes on $NVDA heading into tomorrow which technically DID make its highest close of 2026 today, but yet could face some headwinds from a cycle composite which is "not too bullish" starting next month https://t.co/XW54gpjWXm Important to keep a close eye...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The Nasdaq‑100 ETF (QQQ) rose 1 % as a broad tech rally unfolded, led by semiconductors and supported by gains in internet and software stocks. Short‑covering in non‑profitable, heavily shorted tech names amplified the move, indicating traders are re‑entering positions after...
Post‑close Narrative Shift Will Reshape Investor Confidence
Just a reminder that after the close today the market narrative is likely to change and with that so will investor confidence and their decisions.
Uber Aggregates Robotaxis, Offering a Leveraged AV Bet
Uber isn’t building robotaxis. It’s aggregating them. That changes everything. $UBRL may be a leveraged bet on the entire AV ecosystem. Read why: https://t.co/uYTNGDwJMe @willrhind @graniteshares
Spotify Stock Struggles Continue — Morgan Stanley, Guggenheim, and Others Remain Bullish Despite Target Price Reductions
Spotify’s share price has slipped roughly 33% over the past six months, hovering around $465. Despite the decline, Morgan Stanley and Guggenheim have retained buy ratings, adjusting their price targets to $650 and $600 respectively, which still suggest 30‑35% upside....
Country Exposures Keep Outperforming the S&P 500
CHART OF THE DAY: Our Country Exposures Continue To Outperform $SPY Monkeys https://t.co/xvYrId3oap via @hedgeye
Goldman's Endorsement Turns Speculation Into Assumed Fact
I suppose that now that the team at Goldman thinks this is true, it must be...
Stocks Making the Biggest Moves After Hours: Workday, Cava, Lucid Group and More
After‑hours trading on Tuesday saw mixed reactions across sectors as Workday’s Q1 subscription outlook missed forecasts, dragging its stock down nearly 10%, while Lucid Group’s wider‑than‑expected loss and a 12% U.S. workforce cut pushed its shares lower than 4%. Conversely,...
International ETFs Hit June 2023 Highs
International vs US stocks... fresh highs back to June 2023 on $VEU vs $SPY @stockcharts https://t.co/aAmaYUIj34
Midterm Years Naturally Bring Stock Market Volatility
Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years. https://t.co/gX328BtAzw
Stripe Is Considering Acquisition of All or Parts of PayPal, Bloomberg News Reports
Payments platform Stripe is reportedly exploring a purchase of PayPal or selected assets, according to Bloomberg. PayPal, valued at over $40 billion, saw its shares jump nearly 7% on the news, while Stripe itself carries a $159 billion valuation. The move comes...
Tactical 200‑Day RDR Trades: Trim or Take Short Position
$jpm did a tactical RDR around the 200day for active cash flow. There were many yesterday. Trim if u held some - or just take the day and a half trade. Same tactic happened in $MSFT and $hood....
Delayed Left Tail, Emerging Right Tail Signals Green Growth
Left Tail Delayed; Right Tail Green Shoots I wrote about this for clients Tues: https://t.co/9mH4bWEu3y
What Options Data Tells Us to Expect From Snowflake Stock After February 25 Earnings
Snowflake (SNOW) shares are clawing back losses ahead of its Feb. 25 earnings, where analysts expect a 27% year‑over‑year revenue jump to $1.25 billion and a narrower loss of $0.65 per share. The stock remains more than 30% below its year‑to‑date high,...
SPX Futures Hold, Target 6916 Before NVDA Earnings
$SPX futures are up 18 after the range held again yesterday, with 6815 proving support. Now we see if it can clear 6916 and hold it ahead of $NVDA earnings tonight, with the top end of the range at 6993–7002....
S&P 500 Daily Movers Surge, Indicating Low Correlation
The share of S&P 500 names moving more than 10% in a single day has increased, and high dispersion and low implied correlation suggest stocks are increasingly trading on their own fundamentals - Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/wgshI0i288
Dollar Supported by a Weak Yen and Strength in US Consumer Confidence
The dollar index rose modestly as a two‑week low yen boosted USD/JPY and stronger US consumer confidence lifted the greenback. Dec S&P composite‑20 home‑price data also outperformed expectations, while a rally in the yuan limited gains. The euro slipped on...
Copper Price Spikes; Maintain Long CPER Position
Dr. Copper inflates again and we remain long of it in $CPER terms @RPKent $HBM https://t.co/amj1QWvmMl
S&P Short‑Range Oscillator Still Slightly Overbought
Wed, Feb 25 at 5:16 AM The S&P Short Range Oscillator remained modestly overbought at 1.26% v 1.03% . @dougkass @thestreetpro
Nasdaq QQQ Endures Second Weakest Week of Year
we're in the midst of the second weakest week of the year for Nasdaq $QQQ stocks and '26 has been no exception... #seasonality https://t.co/xa65cuEhCz
Nearly 1,000 Russell 200
991 of the Russell 2000s companies have reported an aggregate y/y EPS acceleration of +24%
Industrial ETF Climbs 14% Q1, Near Record High
Long Industrials $XLI up another +1.2% (back towards all-time highs) yesterday and already +14.1% in Q1-to-date
Capex Share Rises, Yet Dividends Remain Intact
Companies are spending more of their revenues on capex, and so far, this hasn’t come at the expense of either dividends or buybacks. At the bottom in 2022, companies were spending 5.4% of their revenues on capex, and that has...
Money Supply Surge Keeps Precious Metals Bull Market Early
The U.S. money supply has soared nearly 5x since 2000, pushing the cost of living significantly higher — yet most people still prefer dollars over gold & silver. That means the precious metals bull market is still very young,
Earnings Beats Keep 40‑Month Bull Market Alive
The earnings picture has continuedto provide support for this now 40-month old bull market. With Q4 earnings season soon wrapping up (with 425 companies having reported), 75% have beaten estimates by an average of 773 bps. The dollar estimate has...
Broad Market Slump Pushes Dozens to 52‑week Lows
All these stocks hit new 52 WEEK LOWS at some point today Adobe $ADBE Palo Alto $PANW Trade Desk $TTD Novo Nordisk $NVO Autodesk $ADSK $ADP Accenture $ACN Dutch Bros $BROS Check Point $CHKP Cognizant $CTSH $EPAM Fair Isaac $FICO Flutter Entertainment $FLUT Infosys $INFY Blue Owl $OWL Paychex $APYX Planet Fitness $PLNT Atlassian $TEAM Toast $TOST Zillow $Z
Mag 7 Range Holds; Break Below Could Trigger 10% Drop
Whether this benign broadening will continue depends largely on whether the Mag 7 can hold on to its trading range. So far it has, but should support be taken out at the range lows I could easily see another 10%...
Equal‑Weighted S&P 500 Beats Mag 7 Amid Market Dip
The chart below shows that the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the Mag 7 by 12% over the past 3 months. The last time that happened was in the fall of 2024, and the time before was the spring of...
Bull Market Still Strong, Yet Flattening Into Picks‑and‑Shovels
Another week, another headline bombshell. Such has been the norm during the past year or so. But charts are charts, and there is a lot we can learn from them in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. What do...
IRDM Dominates the Global LEO Satellite Market
$IRDM continuing off that strong base. These guys are the only global low earth orbit (LEO) satellite company. Big name in the space race.
Bonds Poised to Surprise in 2026 as Growth Cools
Bonds may be setting up the surprise of 2026. Equities own the narrative. Duration owns the asymmetry. If growth cools, fixed income becomes leadership. Framework here: https://t.co/NWtS4ggYI5 @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap
Dollar Weakness Shifts Next Bull Market Beyond America
The next bull market may not be American. Dollar weakness changes leadership. If the dollar is in a structural bear, global diversification stops being optional. Capital rotates. Narratives lag. Read the full framework: https://t.co/RJWIidZeAI @DynamicAlphaSol
S&P 500 Stuck 6800‑7000, Breakout Imminent
We bounced today… but we’re still trapped between 6800 and 7000 on the S&P 500. I’m watching: 📈 $NVDA into earnings 📈 $AMD near key support 📈 Yields drifting lower 📈 $VIX back under 20 This range is going to resolve soon. Full breakdown: https://t.co/wvDXift1wY
Story‑Driven Investors Face DAT Decline, Elevator Demand Rises
🆓 Tuesday links: narrative-loving investors, the end of the DAT boom, and growing demand for elevators. https://t.co/vZ3ezyQCtk chart: https://t.co/tgBy66cSK7 https://t.co/E3cZ7Gtawi
Micro Microsoft RDR Pivot Offers Day‑Trade Opportunities
If u weren’t caught. There was a tiny tactical RDR in $msft for cash flow. $383.10 was the pivot. It might not have been more than a day trade. But some make a living finding those https://t.co/Ki0yu8TXyn
S&P 500's Tight Range Signals Imminent Breakout
Over the past four months, the S&P 500 has traded in less than a 7% range. This is about as tight as things usually get, meaning a bigger move is likely over the coming months. Will it be up or down? https://t.co/vzY9JAuphI
S&P 500 Holds Tight
SPX tight 3-month range of 4.3%.. and it's smack in the middle of it https://t.co/9KwEPpi3uu
AI Disruption Could Trigger $420 Bn Credit Default Wave
UBS’s Matt Mish lays out a scenario for credit involving “rapid, aggressive AI disruption.” US high yield, leveraged loan & private credit default rates could rise to 3–6%, 8–10%, & 14–15%, respectively: Mish. “Defaults could approach ~$420bn, w/losses of roughly...
Trump's AI Restrictions Could Trigger Massive Political Reshuffle
Just a thought...but tomorrow could feature some absolute wild reshuffling rotations if Trump even hints at limiting AI
Ritholtz Launches First Trend-Following ETF: A Watchlist Pick
Interesting… Ritholtz filing for first ETF. Trend following strategy. I like the Goaltending name/concept (a la Granny Shots another bball metaphor). Ben and Mike are the PMs. One to watch.
NYSE and S&P 500 AD Lines Hit Record Highs
Both the NYSE Advance-Decline line and the S&P500 Advance-Decline line closed at their highest levels ever on Friday.
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm Recap Now Available
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/BjOhiFzufn Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @AlphaPicks @TaviCosta @0xkyle__ @SamRo @SubuTrade @SnippetFinance @OptimizedPort @topdowncharts