Today's American Stocks Pulse
Dow climbs nearly 200 points to record close as oil eases on Iran truce hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 200 points, closing at a fresh all‑time high. The rally was driven by a pullback in oil prices after optimism surrounding a potential Iran truce. Markets remained cautious amid mixed political signals.
Dow Closes More than 500 Points Lower After Hot Inflation Report, Mounting Concerns About AI Impact
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to finish at 48,977.92 after a hotter‑than‑expected producer price index showed 0.5% inflation in January. The broader market fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% and the Nasdaq off 0.92%, as investors weighed persistent price pressures and uncertainty around artificial‑intelligence spending. AI‑focused firms felt the strain: CoreWeave plunged 20% on weak guidance, while Dell rallied 21% after beating forecasts and projecting AI server revenue to double. February corporate buybacks surged to a record $233.3 billion, underscoring continued shareholder return strategies despite volatility.
Equal‑Weighted SPX Holds While Financials Remain Weak
Equal-weighted SPX is holding up despite the Software/Mag 7 decline now spreading to NVDA and to Banks. Resilient... but Financials have been drubbed this year. Here's @IBDinvestors @marketsurge new charts of $KBWB Banks- https://t.co/XW54gpjWXm I discuss Financials & when i...
February: Metals and Energy Surge While Stocks and Crypto Dive
February... Silver $SLV: +13% Energy $XLE: +10% Gold $GLD: +9% International Developed $VEA: +6% EM $IEMG: +6% Oil $USO: +3% Bonds $AGG: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -1% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2% Financials $XLF: -4% Mag 7 $MAGS: -7% Software $IGV: -10% Bitcoin $IBIT: -22% Fartcoin $FART: -31%
TMTB EOD Wrap
The Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) slipped 55 basis points despite concerns over XYZ’s 40% cost‑cut announcement. Semiconductor and software indices fell in tandem, indicating no clear sector rotation. Growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price (GARP) and quality stocks outperformed, led by Netflix’s 12% jump, Spotify’s 2% gain,...
New Global PMI Upswing Expected Through 2027
It’s been a while since I’ve seen so much focus on the ISM. Our work has over 15 individual series that lead this data (regressions don’t work well out of sample), between 6 and 18 months and another dozen that...
Contrarian Insight: Cap Spending Crowds Out Hyperscaler Buybacks
Come on, Scott - some of us brought up that the gargantuan cap spending will crowd out buybacks of hyperscalers several months ago.... this is not new, its just a narrative to fit the lower stock prices. This is why...
MP's "Strong" Quarter: Accelerated Production, Long-Term Agreements With Major Tech Companies
MP Materials posted a fourth‑quarter revenue of $52.7 million and net income of $9.4 million, buoyed by a U.S. Department of War price‑floor agreement. The company recorded a 12% year‑over‑year increase in rare‑earth oxide concentrate, producing a record 50,692 metric tons, and more...
Financials Lead Market Weakness with Biggest Daily Loss
The real market story today is the weakness in financials and not the hyperscalers @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport @dougkass Observe these massive individual financial stock losses: $C -$7 $AXP -$25 $GS -$72 $MS -$13 $APO -$10 Since this is the single largest daily loss, it might...
Dell Surges 20% Post‑earnings, Defying Market Slump
$DELL - a sight for sore eyes in this market. 20% gap up after earnings. Can it hold?
'Soft' Data Soars To 2-Year Highs As Chicago PMI Smashes Expectations
The Market News International Chicago Business Barometer posted a 57.7 reading, the strongest level since May 2022 and well above analyst forecasts. This marks the second consecutive month the index has stayed above the 50‑point expansion threshold. Core components such...
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Bullish Equity Outlook
Scott @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport kindly forward this to Slink, @saraeisen (who has expressed the view that inflation is declining) and your panelists who mostly insist as part of their bullish stance on equities that inflation has been conquered. From Peter Boockvar...
S&P Near 10‑Month Winning Streak, Needs 30bps Boost
STREAK ON LINE: The S&P 500 is trying to notch its 10th straight positive month on last day of Feb today to secure the 2nd longest streak in the SPY Era (33yrs). It only needs 30bps of gains. Problem is...
Nvidia Dumps: A Big Signal or Just an Options Vol Crush? Also, a Rare Earth Rabbit Hole.
The episode dissected Nvidia's post‑earnings sell‑off, debating whether the drop reflects a broader warning about AI‑driven capex sustainability or simply a volatility crush from massive call‑option exposure ahead of expiration. Hosts highlighted divergent market moves, with large‑cap AI names falling...
Short‑seller Paper May Mark Software Bottom; CEOs Mimic Dorsey
The Citrini doom-paper could have marked the bottom for large-cap software, with increasing signs of it being a short-seller paid paper. And maybe software CEOs will slowly but surely follow the Jack Dorsey playbook. Lay off 40 percent of staff,...
Market Misprices IGV Despite Strong AI Potential
The market may be wrong about $IGV, which is down 30% in past few months. Our tech analysts went through and graded stocks for AI vulnerability and AI potential, a select few got green on both (list below) and guess...
The Market Brief
U.S. equity markets opened with a sharp selloff, pulling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward monthly losses while the Dow remains on track for a February gain. Despite the decline, about 70% of S&P constituents closed higher, indicating broad participation....
Money Market Surge, Equity Inflows Cool, Break
Equity Inflows cooling Money Market inflows surge NAAIM lowest since May 2025 AAII Bull-Bear very tight spread Finally seeing some key elements needed in order to break the chop and have incremental buyers Been noting since Dec. that it would be hard for markets to...
Investment Hinges on Capital Cost, Not Cash Windfalls
The tariff refund issue is fun to follow. But it doesn't matter much for the macroeconomy. Business investment determined more by cost of capital than cash availability. Keynesian multiplier very low on one-time transfers to businesses. And debt impact large...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) slipped 1.2% on Tuesday, dragged down by a 3% decline in semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, software equities posted a solid bid, narrowing the valuation gap between software and semis to its widest since Deepseek’s surge in January 2025 and...
Software Gains, Hardware Falters: Go Long NFLX, Short NVDA
JPM: Software (IGV) — Sentiment +10% | Net flows +1.5z | ETF volume +4z (1yr lookback) Semis (SMH) — Sentiment -7% | Net flows -0.3z | ETF volume +1z I call that "green shoots" and made for a great $NFLX long, $NVDA short...
Gold Hits Record 8-Month Streak as S&P Falters
The S&P 500 is headed for its first RED month since April 2025. Meanwhile, GOLD is headed for its 8th consecutive GREEN month. That’s gold’s longest winning streak in history. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/sNJYx0tj3z
Inverted H&S Signals $PBJ Upside To
I cover this chart in the Update tomorrow My favorite sandwich is peanut butter, jelly, potato chips and banana slices $PBJ Continuation inverted H&S (they do exist skeptics) Target 1X at 58.7, 2X at 68 https://t.co/gDeM5nTRIY Best deal on the street https://t.co/nIjAT6ZSAA
NVDA's Strong Earnings Can't Stop Stock Slide
Two days after strong $NVDA earnings, the stock continues to slide, which begs the question: Will fundamentals ever be enough? https://t.co/IJF2dA07mR
Intel Holds Below Base Top, Basing at 50‑Day MA
$INTC daily basing along the 50ma and below the base top. Still hold it here no change today. Updated chart. https://t.co/BqQrlEX6xR
AI, Private Credit, and US Debt Drive Market Volatility
Having @bethanymac12 on the show to discuss the economy, markets & the issues currently causing volatility like the benefits/consequences of A.I. as well as trends in Private Credit is invaluable. We also hit $FNMA $FMCC. Of course my @Kalshi topic...
AmEx Buying Holds Steady Amid White‑
$AXP put buying staying constant Hammered this week on the idea that the end of white collar knowledge workers disrupts its card user spending https://t.co/Cd5J3HA4N4
Credit Crisis Chatter Spikes, Targeting APO, KRE, KKR
The noise around incoming credit crisis is picking up significantly today .. look APO, KRE, KKR etc
Dow Forms Horn Pattern, Signals Potential Decline
Dow setting up for a decline? This is an expanded triangle, or a horn. Its natural disposition according to Edwards and Magee is for a decline. That is not mandatory, but the more likley outcome $YM_F $DIA https://t.co/bfMgi3hsri
AAOI Surge: $85 Calls Spike as AI Component Play
Applied Opto (AAOI) seeing 880 June $85 calls bought $1.5M with stock up 45% on results, a top components play for a while now on the AI buildout Piece I wrote last Aug. https://t.co/WYy1BykzGw
April Short Puts Signal Bearish Pressure on KKR, ARES
$KKR $ARES starting to see some April opening short puts Need that group to stabilize, was my first red signal a few weeks ago
ARLO, FIGS Lead 2026 Small Caps Surge
ARLO and FIGS two top 2026 small caps that hit today, saw about 70 names up over 6% yesterday on that list
SPY Holds AVWAP Support From November Lows
SPY early hold of that AVWAP from Nov. lows which has consistently been support in 2026
Dell Poised to Break Above $140, Eyeing Next‑week Rally
$DELL crushed #s and raised a lot. as long as above 140 could close HOD and move higher next week... https://t.co/HsaGKCoa3Y
Questioning Inflation Outlook: Is 10‑Year Rally a Flight‑to‑Quality?
@jimcramer I dont understand your response to the inflation print. It is not positive. And couldnt the short term strength in the 10 year (something you just mentioned) be a flight to quality with rising credit conerns and...
NVDA Tests Support After Missing $192‑$194 Range
$nvda gave u ur clues yesterday as it failed to hold $192-$194 area. Now, see if it stays below yesterday’s low or reclaims it https://t.co/vIIob7ApK8
SPX Futures Slip, 6859 Key Support Test
$SPX futures were -30 as 6915 failed to hold, and now we see if 6859 (yesterday’s low) holds or not. Tricky action—lots of range-type trades, but no real traction. https://t.co/rUISq4Qyt5
Treasury Yields Hit Year Low as Credit Spreads Surge
Something is happening in bond markets. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen to the lowest this year, while credit spreads are widening to the highest this year.
Inside Wall Street’s Top Morning Routine Revealed
Be a Fly on the Wall of Wall Street’s Best Morning Process https://t.co/bh1gg4mzGh via @hedgeye
SPY Stalls at 693, Market Range Stagnates
Good morning. Mixed markets around the World. $spx futures -17 $spy got rejected at $693 to break $690 to see $684 area. We’ll see if they holds, or not. Let’s end the week making the right decisions This range...
SPX's Worst 3‑Month Relative Performance Since 2001
Reiterating Short #Bag7 with OCT 2025 having big echoes of Q4 1999 "Last 3 months have been the worst period to own $SPX relative to its equal weight index since 2001" @t1alpha https://t.co/AgkFgy0aqK
Global FX Volatility Fades as USD Signal Narrows
In line with our narrowing USD Signal, Global FX Vol continues to fade here https://t.co/sY7hmVcxe3
S&P Near Record, Nasdaq Slides, FANG Plunges
The S&P 500 is less than 2% from its all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 5%. The NYSE FANG Index is down 17%. Three indexes. Three very different pictures. Full breakdown with charts: https://t.co/1Skwzjqna3 https://t.co/NAO3m5uBUh
Fed Seeks to Block DOJ Subpoenas in Secret Probe
The DOJ probe of the Federal Reserve is playing out behind closed doors The Fed, in sealed proceedings, is asking a judge to quash the subpoenas, which could reduce or eliminate its obligation to respond via @cryanbarber @sgurman https://t.co/HvnC5W8ImQ
Futures and Microsoft Dip After XYZ Cuts, ZS Earnings
Back to the numbers... Stock futures and $MSFT (good job @hedgeye for highlighting Mr. Softee's share price weakness over the last week while the shows were talking about its "value") move lower after the close after $XYZ job reduction...
S&P 500 on Track for Worst Month Since April 2025
MARKET RECAP 📉 What a wild and crazy day, S&P 500 fell once again and is on pace for worst month since April 2025 😳 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
Software Gains Momentum, Semis Lose Appeal
Last night's report discussed six reasons for why Software might finally start to gain traction, but this could also happen at the expense of Semis. The false breakout was very much apparent this morning & while broader mkt breadth...
S&P 500 Faces Worst Month Since 2025 Amid 2026 Volatility
The S&P 500 is now on pace for its WORST month since April 2025 😳 Volatility continues to be the main storyline of 2026 🎢
Nvidia Not Top Trade; Here Are Better Alternatives
There Are Better Things To Trade Than Nvidia also my short price targets on $NVDA https://t.co/LGkqEyi3XF
Netflix Finishes Second, Poised to Win the War
Congratulations to the team at Netflix for coming in second. If the history of bidding wars holds, they will end up as the real winner.
S&P Holds Above 100‑Day MA, Bulls Remain Confident
$SPX - Yesterday's gap was filled. Still trading above the 100 day MA. As long as it's above the 100 DMA there's no reason for the bulls to be worried. And even if it closes below the 100 DMA we...