Today's American Stocks Pulse
Dow climbs nearly 200 points to record close as oil eases on Iran truce hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 200 points, closing at a fresh all‑time high. The rally was driven by a pullback in oil prices after optimism surrounding a potential Iran truce. Markets remained cautious amid mixed political signals.
Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/20/2026
Lawrence G. McMillan notes the S&P 500 is trapped in a tight range, with resistance near 7,000 and support between 6,720 and 6,800. Equity‑only put‑call ratios have risen to their most bearish levels since late January, indicating heavy downside protection even on up days. Market breadth remains mixed, offering no clear directional signal, while the VIX spike‑buy signal from February 6 is still active but nearing a potential sell trigger. The overall recommendation is to wait for a decisive breakout before taking new positions.
Apple’s Nasdaq Correlation Hits Historic Low, AI‑Proof Edge
⚠️Apple has almost NEVER decoupled from its Tech Peers like this before: $AAPL, 40-day price correlation with the Nasdaq 100 dropped to 0.2, the lowest since 2006. This is down from 0.92 in May 2025, a truly historic divergence. This comes as Apple...
Equity Risk Discount Signals Overvalued Market Amid Turmoil
An equity risk premium which has recently turned into an equity risk discount. (Historically, an awful launnching pad for future returns) Policy turmoil, slowing domestic economic growth, sticky inflation, circular financing deals in AI (holding up the econ data) and traditional...
Inflation’s Back In America. Not That It Ever Left
The Federal Reserve’s January FOMC minutes confirm that inflation remains entrenched in the United States, contrary to earlier optimism. Core consumer‑price index rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, keeping annual inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The minutes show policymakers acknowledging persistent price...
Accounting Rules Reveal Shutdown’s Massive Real GDP Loss
A fun(?) 🧵 on how nerdy government accounting rules had a big impact on Q4 GDP. And how they reflect how wasteful the 43-day government shutdown was. TL;DR: Small reduction in nominal federal spending in Q4. But a big decline in...
Gold Rises With Stocks, Breaking Inverse Trend
🚨 GOLD DEEP DIVE | FEB 20, 2026 🚨 Gold: $5,048/oz (+1.25% today | +71.82% YoY) Silver: $81.94 (+151% YoY) GDX Miners ETF: $104.23 (+21% YTD) The most telling signal: gold is surging today while stocks ALSO rally on the Supreme Court tariff ruling....
Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...
Yield Curve Inverted 43 Months, Recession Still Unseen
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Jim Cramer's Top 10 Things to Watch in the Stock Market Friday
Jim Cramer highlighted ten market catalysts for Friday, Feb 20, ranging from macro data to individual stocks. Weak Q4 GDP growth at 1.4% pushed futures lower, while Texas Roadhouse rallied over 3% on a strong Q1 outlook. GE Aerospace received a...
Adjusted Q4 GDP Shows Stronger Growth, Q1 Rebound Expected
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
Core PCE Inflation Ends Year Elevated, Near 3%
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Tariffs Ineffective Against US Trade Deficit? & Family Feud Over Reese’s Recipe
Neal and Toby examine why the U.S. trade deficit continues to grow despite the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policy, highlighting the limited impact of tariffs on the broader balance of payments. They then shift to a family dispute over the...
Balanced OPEX Shows No Clear Call or Put Dominance
This OPEX is a fairly standard size OPEX, with about $600 bn on delta expiring. That's ~1/2 of a quarterly OPEX. You can see that calls and puts are relatively equal in size (right side), which makes sense based off...
ETF Fees Halt Decline as Higher‑cost Products Gain Traction
The race to zero has hit a wall as the asset weighted average ETF fee has finally stopped its descent and even reversed a bit (this chart is one of the scariest, albeit slow moving ones for Wall St, equiv...
Can US Small Caps Survive the Software Selloff?
US software megacaps have slumped roughly 30% this year, dragging the S&P 500 to a modest 0.5% gain, while the MSCI ACWI ex‑USA rose 9.1%. By contrast, the S&P 600 small‑cap index posted a 7.9% rise, narrowing the performance gap with global...
Shutdown Shadow
The episode examines the impact of the 43‑day government shutdown on U.S. GDP reporting, noting that growth is still projected to be robust despite the delay. It discusses emerging signs that higher‑income households are curbing discretionary spending and outlines what...
Shorting SPY at $686.72 in Premarket Trade
Premarket Trading (4:10 AM) @TheStreetPro * Win, lose or draw - I timestamp * I don't bullshit (by sweeping losers under the rug and regaling in my winners) .... I am back shorting the indices: * (SPY) $686.72 By Doug Kass Feb 20, 2026...
Pre-Market IV Report February 20, 2026
The pre‑market implied volatility (IV) report highlights a sharp rise in IV for energy‑related ETFs and stocks as WTI crude climbs above $66, while airlines show elevated IV but balanced call‑put ratios. Unusual option activity spikes on commodities such as...
Research Review | 20 February 2026 | Forecasting Returns
Recent academic research sharpens the tools investors use to forecast long‑term returns and market risk. Rui Ma et al. show that a market‑cap‑weighted Component CAPE ratio aligns prices and earnings, delivering out‑of‑sample R² above 50 %. Javier Estrada confirms that valuation multiples...
Recently Boring Nvidia Reports Next Week. Did We Just See German Green Shoots?
In this episode, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy examines the stark divergence between the US equity market, which remains highly dispersed and volatile, and Europe’s rally driven by record inflows. He highlights the lingering uncertainty in...
Gold Tops Sharpe Rankings; Bitcoin Shows Hopeful Higher Low
For the spectrum of asset classes that I track, equities remain in the middle with modest 52-week Sharpe Ratios, while gold remains on top and Bitcoin at the bottom. Gold continues to exhibit very resilient behavior, recovering quickly from corrections. This...
Software’s Value Mispriced; Embedded Platforms Gain From AI
Software Is Not Dead. It’s Being Mispriced. AI disruption fears, multiple compression, and why embedded platforms may be the real beneficiaries of automation. Read here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/software-is-not-dead-its-being-mispriced
S&P Briefly Dips Negative, Marking a Ludacris Day
ludacris day means that sometime in the day the s and p turns negative after being substantially higher. the s and p did turn negative (briefly) qualifying as a ludacris day.
S&P Reverses Gains, Slides Downward After Recent Surge
S and P now down on the day (reversing 45 handles in last few minutes) From an hour ago... on @thestreetpro Dougie Kass Ludacris Day? @dougkass
High Valuations Test Market Resilience in 2026
Markets flat near the highs + valuations near the upper end of history. Tom Martin of Globalt breaks down what that actually means—and what could sustain (or break) it in 2026! Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/nA9bmU87rf...
Ex‑US Value Soars, Advisors Still Underweight Benchmark
Value ex-US ripping again this year, spreading to US value too. Not a lot of discussion about it in my world yet. Every advisor we speak to still way underallocated relative to benchmark...
AI Connectivity Group Ends Week on Fire
TTMI, GLW, COHR, LITE, CIEN, FN AI connectivity group stays super hot to close the week
SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Sparks Volatile XRT Intraday Swings
Markets can be tricky... SCOTUS tariffs ruling giveth...then taketh away... SPDR S&P Retail ETF intraday...upside volatility...that has been slowly eroded in the last 45 min...now trading where it was before announcement. Let's see how things shake out by closing bell 🤔 $XRT https://t.co/d2XrrhSSlC
Geopolitical Shocks Spark Volatility,
With tensions high around Iran, here's an updated table of major geopolitical events and how the stock market did after. Yes, some of them definitely caused volatility, but the longer-term median returns are fairly normal. https://t.co/477EvHtgAn
Amazon Clears $207, Targets $210+ After $197 Pivot
$amzn nice week. RDR Tuesday around $197 pivot. Cleared $207 and now it’s $210+ to manage.
GE Call Spreads Double, Extra Time Boosts Returns
$GE Feb 330/350 call spreads from earnings snapshots now near $13 from $7, often pays to give extra time when playing a high quality name
Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
First‑Round Knockout: YTD Dominance Over Competitors
CHART OF THE DAY: This Is A First Round Knockout, YTD We Are Crushing The Competition https://t.co/ohQwlRHqY4 via @hedgeye
US Stock Market Cap Only 12% of $7.7T
"...$7.7 trillion ain’t what it used to be: Compared with the combined market capitalization of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, he points out that it’s on the low side, at about 12%." @Spencerjakab https://t.co/dd4PRJs203 https://t.co/f2BPA4Qw7V
Core PCE Near Target; Fed Cuts Still Unlikely
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
2025 GDP Volatile, PDFP Shows Steady Growth
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
US Underlying Domestic Demand Grew 2.4% in Q4
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
Current Feb Mirrors Century‑Long SPY Performance Trends
$SPX.X $SPY Feb performance by day 100 years overlaid on MTD action of SPY https://t.co/x1W4uABOCj
Short the Rips, Buy the Dips: Grinder’s Strategy
Grinder on the short side of the Indices for several months. Short the rips, buy the dips... for now, Bill. @DougKass
Trump’s 5.4% GDP Claim Was Just a Model
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously....
VWAP Highlights Week-Long Choppiness Across Major Indices
The 🔵WTD ⚓️VWAP tells the story of the choppy week in $ES_F $SPY $NQ_F $QQQ https://t.co/ihrFlZV1FZ
Friday's Top Reads: Power Shifts Across Media, Finance, Politics
10 Friday AM Reads: -Netflix Calls Paramount's Bluff -401k Takeover: Private Equity Muscles In -Billionaires' Low Taxes' Problem for the Economy -Quiet Architect of Trump's Global Trade War -The End of the Office -The US Coup: One Year On -U2 Propaganda Days of Ash https://t.co/cSpLOtlpzu
Live Daily Pre‑Market Independent Research Available Now
We're on a LIVE wire with the only Independent Research you can get PRE MARKET daily
SPX Holds Channel—Stay Selective, Await Clean Setups
$SPX is still holding its channel, it’s an easy tape to overtrade, so stay selective and wait for clean setups. Key levels: support 6780–6790, yesterday’s low 6833, and pivot resistance 6909, with PCE and GDP on deck at 8:30. https://t.co/lvzBNkDdkK
Live Premarket Picks: NVDA, TSLA, IBIT, SPY
⏰Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Update $NVDA $TSLA $IBIT $SPY 📷 Free VIP List Newsletter: https://t.co/EW4O2nbz8N https://t.co/LuYuPCBRLU
Bitcoin's Rally Hinges on Nasdaq Breaking Upward
One of the most important signals would be a breakout upwards of the Nasdaq. It's stuck in a range, and as long as that happens, there's likely no breakout for #Bitcoin to occur. https://t.co/8BfYJ230T7
Apple’s Support Break Rippled Into SPY Yesterday
Did you know $AAPL broke @Hedgeye TREND Signal Support in the past week? Do you know what its impact was in $SPY yesterday? @t1alpha We call this being Macro Aware https://t.co/vu1biIkQcQ
December PCE Inflation Hits Multi‑Year Highs
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq