Today's American Stocks Pulse
Dow climbs nearly 200 points to record close as oil eases on Iran truce hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 200 points, closing at a fresh all‑time high. The rally was driven by a pullback in oil prices after optimism surrounding a potential Iran truce. Markets remained cautious amid mixed political signals.
Earnings, Earnings, and (You Guessed It) More Earnings
In this episode, Tyler Crowe, Matt Frankel, and Jon Quast dissect the latest earnings reports from consumer giants like Walmart, Booking Holdings, Etsy, and eBay, highlighting mixed performance across sectors. They analyze eBay’s strategic acquisition of Etsy’s Depop platform and debate the bullish versus bearish outlook for insurance disruptor Lemonade. The conversation then pivots to Klarna’s surprising stock plunge, probing the factors that spooked investors. Throughout, the hosts blend data‑driven insights with market sentiment to map current consumer spending trends.
Energy and Materials Surge as Tech Falters in 2026
This is a pretty cool chart to show your investment committee. A classic stock price-to-corporate profits image that reveals extended conditions reminiscent of the turn of the century. If this chart has any prescience, we should remember that the leaders...
Noodles & Company Executes 8-for-1 Reverse Stock Split
Noodles & Company completed an 8‑for‑1 reverse stock split on Feb. 19, 2026, moving its share price from $0.50 to roughly $4.00 to satisfy Nasdaq’s $1 minimum listing requirement. The split was approved by more than 96% of shareholders at a...
Growth-to-Value Rotation Shifts Money to Cyclicals and Defensives
“Yes, THAT growth-to-value sector rotation I called in November to last through Feb before volatility Mar into May. THAT was my call and it’s still in play before a massive de-risking in MAG7 and SaaS unwind showed up along with...
Booking Holdings Announces a Massive 25-for-1 Stock Split. Here's What Investors Need to Know
Booking Holdings announced its first-ever forward stock split, converting each share into 25 shares. The 25‑for‑1 split will take effect on April 6, 2026, after distribution on April 2, with shares trading on a split‑adjusted basis. The move follows a...
Consumer Staples Lead 2026 with Record‑Breaking 13% Jump
The consumer staples sector is off to its best start to a calendar year BY FAR. $XLP is up 13.3% so far in 2026. Next best year is 2013 at 7.8%.
Trump’s Iran Deal Risks Mirror Obama, Favor Equity Shorts
Trump is going to have some explaining to do if he goes through all of this commotion and expensive military build up only to walk away with a deal not too dissimilar from Obama's. Oil is up over 6% since...
If The ‘Smart Money’ Is A Contrarian Indicator, It’s Time To Sell
Recent data show institutional investors have poured a record $158 billion into U.S. equities during the last quarter, even as inflation remains above target and the Federal Reserve signals further rate hikes. The article argues that when the so‑called “smart money”...
Stocks Slide as Traders Assess Walmart Earnings, Potential Iran Conflict: Live Updates
U.S. stock futures were largely flat on Wednesday night after the major indexes posted gains, with the Dow down 0.09%, the S&P 500 down 0.09% and the Nasdaq down 0.1%. Investors focused on Walmart’s upcoming fourth‑quarter earnings, a widely watched...
What’s Behind a Big Jump in January Property Tech Funding
Property‑tech companies secured roughly $1.7 billion in January 2026, a 176 % jump from the same month a year earlier. The average deal size more than doubled to about $34 million, reflecting a shift toward larger, later‑stage rounds. Generative AI is identified as...
America Faces a ‘Debt Crisis’ a Lot Like the 1980s when a ‘Private Pact’ Brokered by Ronald Reagan Did the...
The United States now carries a public debt exceeding $38 trillion—about 101% of GDP—and projections show it could reach 120% within a decade. Rising interest obligations threaten to crowd out vital programs, notably Social Security, which the Congressional Budget Office warns...
NBIS Up 45% Near Range High—Breakout Possible
$NBIS +45% since its February lows. Now nearing the highs of its range...can it break out?
Wendy’s Is ‘Undervalued’ and Could Face Takeover by Nelson Peltz
Activist investor Nelson Peltz, through Trian Fund Management, has filed with the SEC stating Wendy’s is significantly undervalued and signaling possible actions, including buying more shares to gain control or divesting his stake. The fast‑food chain’s stock has slumped about...
Problems at Yelp (YELP)
The episode dissects Yelp’s deteriorating business model, highlighting a sharp slowdown in revenue growth and a recent year‑over‑year decline driven by weaker ad clicks and economic uncertainty. It argues that a toxic sales culture, high‑pressure outbound tactics, and a disgruntled...
Rising Car Prices Spur New‑Used Gap, Boosting Used Market
Interesting commentary from Sonic Automotive on their call and the affordability issues that are still here and possibly about to rise again: “And look, January was a hell of a month. Without the snowstorms, it would have been a magnificent month....
AI Productivity Gains Pave Way for Fed Rate Cut
The combination of decent economic data (see last week’s employment data) and the softer inflation report might be anecdotal evidence that the promise of an AI-driven productivity boom (which would lift the economy’s non-inflationary speed limit) is becoming a reality....
Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq Drop Amid Walmart's Muted Outlook, AI-Related Concerns — Details Here
U.S. equity indexes slipped on February 19 as Walmart issued a muted earnings outlook and investors grew uneasy about artificial‑intelligence regulatory risks. The Dow Jones fell about 0.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the Nasdaq slipped roughly 0.9%. Walmart’s guidance...
Earnings and Dividends Now Power Half of Market Gains
One positive aspect of the evolution of this market cycle has been how the market has become less reliant on multiple expansion. Earnings and dividends now comprise almost half of the cumulative gains since October 2022, with the P/E expansion...
Trade Range‑bound Stocks with Red‑dog Reversals
📺 RED DOG REVERSALS & RED-TO-GREEN TRADES — CASH FLOW MODE Some short-term tactical trades inside choppy, range-bound markets: 1. $AMZN I had a profitable Red Dog Reversal trade from $197.28. The stock bounced and pushed toward the 8-day moving average. It wasn’t...
Elizabeth Warren Has Questions About the Shake-Up Inside the Fed’s Banking Regulator
Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote to Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman demanding details on recent internal changes within the Fed’s banking‑supervision division, including reported job cuts and the sidelining of senior examiners. The request also asks for a...
Monster Beverage Beats Apple, Nvidia, Amazon Over 25 Years
Value now of $1 invested 25 years ago: Monster Beverage: $8,025 Apple: $779 Nvidia: $761 Amazon: $301 Booking .com $217 Autozone $144 Sherwin-Williams:42 Caterpillar $35 Deere $29 Costco $23 Lowe’s $20 Starbucks $16 Adobe: $14 Microsoft: $14 McDonald’s $11 Nike: $10
Morning Market Brief
Lawrence Fuller reviews recent economic data, highlighting a strong finish to the year in housing starts and building permits, though noting a four‑year decline trend. He points out a better‑than‑expected 0.7% rise in January industrial production, driven by consumer goods...
TMTB Morning Wrap
The episode opens with a market snapshot and escalating US‑Iran tensions before diving into earnings from DoorDash (DASH), Booking Holdings (BKNG), eBay (EBAY), Carvana (CVNA) and FIG. DoorDash reported strong 4Q25 growth in gross order value and EBITDA but missed...
Trade the Range Now, Skip Breakout Expectations
📺 STOP WAITING FOR THE BREAKOUT, TRADE THE RANGE FOR NOW Get today's newsletter: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F My core message to everyone today: stop expecting big follow-through and start trading the range that’s actually in front of you. That’s the environment right now: quick pushes,...
Amazon Surpasses Walmart in Annual Revenue for the First Time
Amazon reported $716.9 billion in 2025 revenue, overtaking Walmart's $713.2 billion for the first time. The shift ends Walmart's 13‑year streak as Fortune's top‑revenue company and highlights Amazon's transformation into a tech‑services powerhouse. Growth is now driven by Amazon Web Services, advertising...
Stay Cautious on Retail, Long Amazon, Short Walmart, Costco
(In contrast to the bullish view expressed yesterday on the Fin TV show - see SLINK's confident consumer outlook on @cnbc), we remain cautious on the consumer. This week we put on a three way pairs trade - long $AMZN/Short $COST...
Uber Moves to Enact Stricter Background Checks for Drivers
Uber announced it will tighten driver background checks by permanently barring anyone convicted of violent felonies, sexual offenses, and child or elder abuse, regardless of how long ago the crime occurred. The move follows a New York Times investigation that...
Tech, Media & Telecom Roundup: Market Talk
Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $67,202 after reports Nvidia will supply Meta with large‑quantity processors, lifting tech and semiconductor stocks. Jefferies highlighted Chinese AI startup MiniMax’s strong model performance and cost‑effective architecture, initiating coverage with a buy rating and a HK$1,118...
Stock Market Today: Dow Slips; Oil Prices Hit Highest Since Summer
The Dow Jones slipped Thursday as investors weighed fresh earnings reports and a sharp rally in oil prices. Brent crude surged up to $72 a barrel, its highest level since the summer, driven by heightened geopolitical tension surrounding U.S. naval...
Fixed Income Disaster: Will Investors Ever Forget?
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
China Cuts US Treasury Holdings to Crisis Low
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
LYV Breakup Could Be Off the Table Following Summary Judgment Ruling
The episode examines Live Nation’s (LYV) recent legal landscape, focusing on a summary judgment that could keep the company’s proposed breakup off the table. It breaks down the court’s reasoning, the potential financial and operational impacts for Live Nation, and...
SPX Flat While DE Soars, Oil Breaks Out, COIN Spikes
$SPX is still stuck between 6800 and 7000. But under the surface, $DE exploded higher on earnings, $CVX and $COP broke out with crude oil, and $COIN is showing amplified volatility vs #Bitcoin. Here’s what I’m watching next: https://t.co/bQnwyKMJeh https://t.co/v7DLLL1mYC
HG Delivers Strong Results and Special Dividend
$HG been a nice newer issue in Financials, just announced results and special divvy https://t.co/1as8xwX6bo
McGough’s CVNA Sell Call Beats CNBC’s Coverage
Great SELL call by McGough @HedgeyeRetail on $CVNA that CNBC failed, once again, to cover
Small‑cap Outlook Dim Amid Credit Crunch, AI Slowdown
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
Soft CPI at 2.4% Signals Declining Inflation Trend
Last week’s CPI report came in soft at 2.4%, which was understandably well received by the bond market. The Truflation index, which has plummeted to a 0.7% year-over-year rate of change, hinted at a softer turn for the CPI. https://t.co/ZsIPypfaNW
Calm S&P Masks Turbulence, 2026 Stock Picker’s Market
“The S&P looks calm… but underneath, it’s churning like crazy.” Great convo with @GinaMartinAdams on concentration risk, price-to-sales extremes, and why 2026 may be a stock picker’s market. 🎙️ Latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/6P2xtsblvM https://t.co/tohQDT7fRk
Jobless Claims Stay Low, Equilibrium Unchanged
Jobless claims update: Another week of low initial claims and stable continuing claims, suggesting no change in the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. https://t.co/umbJshwxL5
NYSE Advance-Decline Line Reaches All-Time High
If you were to track the daily net difference between advancing and declining stocks on the NYSE and build a cumulative Advance Decline line, you would see it just hit the highest level in history. https://t.co/Eg6hlzbbe6
Bears Outnumber Bulls as Jobless Claims Hit Year Low
More bears than bulls in the AAII poll, first time since the late November low. Also, initial jobless claims at the lowest level this year. Not the worst combo. https://t.co/eMyO6gjFm0
Nvidia's Strong Two-Day Bounce Signals Potential Support
$nvda two day bounce was stronger than most. So watch his this acts for clues. If it’s any good. It should hold yesterday’s low https://t.co/XJBWZ8I5A9
Global Markets Outperform S&P, Gap Widens in 2025
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
Live: Team Picks Hershey Stock, Reviews Toilet Paper
We're LIVE with my accountable teammates - kicking things off with a BUY Hershey $HSY rundown by Biolsi @Hedgeye_Staples , also analyzing toilet paper
Berkshire's Apple Sale to NYT Sparks Sell Recommendation
How much confidence do you have in $BRK.B now that it sells its Apple stock to buy the New York Times? For me, it is time to sell Berkshire https://t.co/YR01TZTPdL
Record AD Line, Yet Bears Outnumber Bulls Since Thanksgiving
Despite the NYSE Advance-Decline line hitting new all-time highs again yesterday, the American Association of Individual Investors reported this morning that there are actually more bears the bulls for the first time since Thanksgiving. What do you think they're so...
Retail Private Credit Set to Reach Trillions, Threaten Industry
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
Retail Investors Dump $8.3B, Near‑Historic Outflows
BofA Clients Sold Stocks at Near-Historic Levels via Bbrg: “Clients dumped US equities last week, with outflows reaching near-historic levels.” “Outflows were the *third highest* since records began in 2008.” [$8.3 Billion] *Who will be right: Retail/HFs or Institutions?