Fed Sees Stable Labor, Cautious Optimism, Future Rate Cuts
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on inflation, there are “some encouraging trends” including no significant second-round effects on tariffs, no supply-chain bottlenecks, stable wage growth, inflation expectations that are consistent with the Fed’s target, and underlying inflation ex-imported goods “moving in the right direction.” Fed policy is “well positioned” and if inflation follows “the path I expect,” then further rate cuts “will eventually be warranted.”
Historical Feb‑March Weakness Predicts Upcoming Market Slip
It is what it is, weakness in February and the early parts of March are quite common the past two decades. We've been saying expect a banana peel and we are on it. https://t.co/fTK460vLTF
S&P 500 Records Smallest Two‑Month Range—Tightness Won’t Last
Good reminder that we just had the smallest first two month range EVER for the S&P 500. Tight ranges don't last forever. https://t.co/4UYArPODOU
SPY Approaches Consolidation Floor; Below 670 Triggers Market Drop
$SPY trading near the bottom of its multi-month consolidation range. A move below 670.00 could drive the entire market lower.
S&P Hits 52‑week Highs; Equal‑weight Stays Bullish
seeing the S&P 500 $SPX % stocks at 52-week highs increase again... remember sector rotation is a healthy thing and if you're going to be negative on stocks, you'd better show me the equal-weighted index is bearish (hint: it's not)......
CBOE Strength Breakouts Signal Upcoming Market Weakness
An interesting study for someone good with that kind of thing... Chart $CBOE relative strength breakouts vs. the market as an inflection point to market trends Seems CBOE showing rel. strength tends to always precede market weakness as options volumes surge
Bull Market Ends; Rigorous Research Becomes Essential
The last two years have not been demanding for the bulls. But genius is a rising market. Large portfolio and individual stock drawdowns may emerge. (Already, in the case of $CRM and software, as well as other sectors -- individual...
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Impacted, Still Open
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
ZD Sells Unit to ACN for $1.2B Cash
$ZD with a $1.5B market cap sold a unit to $ACN for $1.2B cash this morning
Oil Spikes Signal Deflationary Shock, Not Inflation
Everyone assuming the Oil move is inflationary. An Oil spike historically more often than not precedes equity tail events and economic recessions. Why? Speed of Oil move is deflationary shock.
Key Rally Drivers Turn Bearish, Threatening Momentum
IMPACT @t1alpha The 3 stocks that drove 25% of yesterday's intraday rally are all signaling Bearish TREND @Hedgeye That's not good. $NVDA $MSFT $PLTR https://t.co/AzTRbxG3Kq
1‑Month 25‑Delta Skew Peaks at 2021 Levels, Signaling Rising Anxiety
"1-month 25 delta skew reached its highest level since late 2021, reflecting elevated anxiety" -Captain Craig @t1alpha https://t.co/6wFr4T9ewz
Geopolitical Tensions Push SPX Futures Down, Near Key Range
Good morning, Mostly Deep Red Arrows around the World as Geopolitical tensions spread thru 9 Countries. $spx futures -120 Looks like we will be right around big important range area. $spy $675ish https://t.co/S9yXkXPEy9
SPY Approaches Hedgeye Trend Breakdown, Confirmation Pending
As I warned yesterday, $SPY was teetering on a @Hedgeye TREND Breakdown - let's see if it confirms
19‑Year Market Trend Signals Immediate Investment Implications
This 19-Year Chart of Stock Markets Really Matters Right Now (here's why) https://t.co/TEzNGq0NTV [VIDEO] #stockmarket #SP500 #dowjones
AI-Driven Market Dispersion Hits Multi-Decade Highs
From The Wall Street Journal: “Market ‘dispersion’ is hitting levels not seen in decades as investors sort AI winners from losers.” (Recall that Dispersion — both within and across sectors and economies — is one of the three key themes I’ve...
Iran Strike Sparks Cross-Asset Volatility, Market Outlook Discussed
I'll be on with @MariaBartiromo tomorrow am- 7:10 EST on @FoxBusiness discussing the surge in cross-asset volatility given the Iran Strike & what it means for markets
Monday Market Playbook: 45 ETFs, 95 Stocks, Key Levels
Monday’s Market Playbook: 45 ETF Positions, 95 Stock Ideas & Today’s Buy/Sell Levels https://t.co/Pc5C1TTVu1 via @hedgeye
Valero Set for 1‑2 Weeks More Upside
$VLO rising to near nose-bleed territory in the short run, but w/ Crude likely to approach high 70's before a peak, i expect another 1-2 weeks of strength out of VLO before this stalls out @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Big push...
Key March Technical Themes: Breakouts, Earnings Setups, Decision Points
Top 10 charts I’m watching for March 👀📊 My latest show on @StockCharts TV covers some key technical themes: ✅ Stocks that have already started to break out (like $MPC and $JBL) 👀 Big earnings setups with divergences (hello $TGT) ⚖️ Magnificent 7 at...
Dimon Warns Inflation May Spark Economic Downturn
“Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high…I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think..I think inflation will cause the economic downturn:” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon https://t.co/xB4HN6ITSk
Security Premium Drives Higher Energy Prices
“Energy prices need to reflect a security premium….Every commodity that must cross a border will carry the cost of the oldest lesson in political economy: security comes first:” Carlyle’s James Stavridis & Jeff Currie https://t.co/wIF8jevdyM
PMI Rebound Offers Limited Boost for Crypto Speculation
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...
Subsector Moves Defy Expectations Amid Iran Tensions
Old Wall Broker comments: "The feedback we consistently heard was the 'subsectors I thought would o/p or u/p to start the day have done the complete opposite" #Iran
COHR Shines with Revenue Growth Amid Tech Slowdown
In this environment, that'll do it $COHR - all a company needs to do is show a rev acceleratiion while the other tech companies are decelerating
Gap‑and‑fade Day Signals Risk Despite Flat SPX
Crude oil spiked, $VIX pushed > 20… and $SPX finished basically flat. What does a “gap-and-fade” day say about risk? Plus: credit spreads, oil overbought signals, $NVDA at the 200D, and #Bitcoin teasing 70K. https://t.co/OFf21HIk5V https://t.co/0TzcIDfamB
Magnificent Seven All Lagging Behind S&P 500
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are now down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500. Video: https://t.co/VjMx0vXyKp
SPX May Slip Below 100‑Day MA, Target 6720
$SPX keeps defending its 100 day MA on a closing basis, though I think it's likely to close below it by the end of the week. When it closes below the 100 DMA the next downside target will be the...
Long Oil, Short US Consumer: BNO Up, XLY Down
We remain long of Oil in $BNO terms and short of the US Consumer via $XLY https://t.co/wvSfyWS2xT
IGV Opens Low, Rallies Higher Five Sessions Straight
Five straight sessions now in software $IGV where they open it near the lows and grind it higher all day. https://t.co/RL0fGDQBeY
SPY Holds $675 Support, Climbs to $681.65
$spy follow up as it held $675 area and reclaimed $680 then $681.65 A few names help lead the way https://t.co/RCNnDd8R4r
Apple's New Products Promise Modest June Revenue Upside
The new $AAPL products should translate into a modest upside for June quarter revenue. https://t.co/3YfhPcJTiW
Spot the Hidden Great Rotation Before It Hits
Everyone’s chasing last year’s winners. The real move is under the surface. Leadership is rotating. Capital is rotating. By the time it’s obvious, it’s late. The Great Rotation is accelerating. Here’s what most investors are missing: https://t.co/Q38nu61vBB
Returning to Short SPY Calls After S&P Rally
Back Shorting SPY Calls @thestreetpro With S&P cash -9 handles (a big rally from the lows of -70 handles) I am back shorting (SPY) calls. By Doug Kass Mar 2, 2026 11:21 AM EST @guyadami @dougkass
War‑favored
Seeing all the gap higher open war-favorite groups fade here, classic sell the news action
Housing and Food Prices Cooling Amid Oil Inflation Fears
Good to see on a day where there are worries about high oil prices and inflation, other key inputs like housing and food may be cooling
ISM Manufacturing Prices Misleading; Soft CPI Ahead
Some focus given to ISM Manufacturing Prices back in 70. In my opinion very misleading for now (and solely based on energy). But the jury is obviously out. I expect a couple of incredibly soft CPI reports coming up.
NVDA Shines for #630Club Watchers, Solid Software
$nvda a great trade this morning for those who watched the #630club. Software was decent also 💪
Nvidia Sees $335M June $150 Call Surge, March 160 Adjusts
Nvidia (NVDA) with $335M of June $150 ITM calls bought as big March 160 position adjusts
Broad Market Breadth Improves, Favoring Value and Cyclicals
Second strong ISM NO print in a row. I'm not bullish, I'm BROADish. We see macro and micro breadth improving into 2027. Benefits to value, cyclicals, active management. https://t.co/geofWJYULy
Mixed Market Reaction to Middle East Events, No Panic Selling
Market overview to kick off the new month. So far mixed as traders react to the latest events in the Middle East. Selling doesn't feel panic-ky.
Core Inflation Hits Highest Since Early 2024
CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest...
0DTE Options Transform Index to Stock Trading
The rise of 0DTE options reshaped index trading — and that evolution is now extending to single stocks. Join us today at 1pm ET as we go live with Mat Cashman of the OCC to break down this structural shift:...
Russell 1000 Sets Record Daily Highs in 2026
Russell 1000 $IWB as has been the case every single day in 2026, we're seeing more highs than lows... https://t.co/3E04oJLnNX
Trim Metal Gains; Drones Poised for Long‑term Re‑rating
📺 ROTATION INTO WAR-LINKED THEMES? VIP Newsletter: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F $SLV and $GLD are up sharply in response to the geopolitical tensions. However, when you get a gap up in metals, you trim. Don’t fall in love with the narrative. Trim into strength,...
SHLD Surges to 80 on ETF Buy, Iran Strike Signal
$SHLD hit 80 this morning, last week's ETF buy...and another options flow signal that a strike on Iran was imminent https://t.co/X4FCStX2RJ
Macro Cycle Shift Triggers Broad Market Re‑rating After AI Boom
Maybe, just maybe, there is a cyclical component to the past 5 months of underperformance in the largest names and momentum factors. A turn in the macro cycle usually leads to a turn in market leadership. We went 3 years...
Dollar Remains Safe Haven Despite Boomer Nostalgia
I guess the dollar is still a safe haven currency despite all the boomers saying its time as king is over
War‑time Trade Lifts Commodities, S&P Teeters at 6785
Mostly red arrows around the world as weekend Middle East events have the “war time trade” in motion, with silver/gold/oil higher and $SPX futures -70. Key is whether $SPX holds 6780–6790 to keep the upper range intact, or if it...
Heating Oil Spikes 15% as Gas Hogs Headlines
While gas prices will get all the attention, it is worth pointing out the near 15% increase in heating oil this morning.