Iran War's Ripple Effect on Economy and Markets
Great to have @Seawolfcap back for this week's "FND" on our WAWD @Substack. We discuss the impact of the war in Iran on the economy & markets & share some thoughts on $CVNA $AXP $APO #GOLD #ENERGY $RVI #privatecredit #AI etc. @VD718 (my mic wasn't right) https://t.co/h4s4ixX6y2
Oil Surge Drives Markets; Ex‑Dolphin Shares TSLA Insight
Tonight on "The Danny Moses Show" @scrippsnews I sit down w/@RLKJ44 & we discuss his journey from @CuseFootball to @MiamiDolphins to his 16 hour swim to shore & his views on the markets. I discuss how the move in Oil...
SPX Closes Weekly Sell‑off, Bearish Outlook Persists
SPX ( US500 ) Sells closed fully today to end the week. Although we still remain bearish on SPX , especially after today's "too bad" US jobs data but we also have to understand that indices can see sharp pullbacks on...
Investors Fear Missing Post‑War Rally More Than Downside
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
Market Ignoring Looming Risks as SPY Nears Peak
SPY is 2.4% from its all-time high. In the middle of a war. With oil spiking. With yields surging. The market hasn't priced in the worst case. It hasn't even priced in the base case. That's the scariest part. https://t.co/d7MxjrSyrG
S&P 500 Closes Above Midpoint
The $SPX has closed above its intra-day mid-point for 8 straight days and 13/14. 3 1/2 hours left to do it again...
S&P 500 Multiplies Tenfold Since 2009 Low
On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 set a closing low of 676.53. Today, it's trading at 6,765.3
Simple Tactical Trade on AVGO Earnings Yields 2.4% Gain
Sometimes we make it harder than it has to be. $avgo had a good response to earnings yesterday. We discussed in 8:50 call u can buy vs gap pivot of $323. It only hit $327...
Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Spikes to 2020 High
A Cboe measure of crude oil volatility has surged to its highest level since 2020 https://t.co/4FBZMvXK9Y
Oil Rises While Mag 7 Shows Bearish Signals
Friday's Playbook: Oil Surging. Bearish Signals Across the Mag 7. See How We’re Positioning. https://t.co/Ab25axAjJe via @hedgeye
Cutting Positions, Shifting Cash Amid US Equity Beta Break
Macro Pros, You'll see I'm down to 25 positions in Portfolio Solutions (from 30). All incremental Cash goes into FDRXX for me because the account is at Fidelity Raising Cash on the US Equity Beta TREND break https://t.co/b9jSa8qkmu
Tech Beats Energy; Early Headlines Don't Ensure Profit
Tech has outperformed energy the past 5 days. Proving once again, you can have the headlines a week early, but that doesn't mean you'll make 💰.
Short Sellers Squeezed, Forced to Cover Positions Rapidly
CHART OF THE DAY: We Are Pressing Our Shorts Into Their Covers https://t.co/6ATbUtxX8X via @hedgeye
WTI Surge Pushes US Gas to $3
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit April Low, Treasury Yields Diverge
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
SPY Plummets Amid Weak Breadth, Labor Cracks, Iran Tension
SPY getting crushed taking out yesterday lows, as noted yesterday, worst breadth seen in a long-time and warned of more cracks likely in the labor market which we saw today, also felt nobody wanted to hold this market into the...
Slugfation Ahead: Weak Jobs, Sticky Inflation
After seeing the weak jobs data, my view is ever stronger that "slugfation" (sluggish economic growth coupled with sticky inflation) lies ahead. @thestreetpro @dougkass @tomkeene @ferrotv @business @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @jimcramer @pboockvar @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @WhitneyTilson @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick
Job Losses Surge, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
The economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Revisions subtracted 69,000 in December and January from previously reported job growth, leading to negative job growth in December.
VIX Spikes 12%—Fear Hits All at Once
VIX at 23.75. Up 12% in a single session. Two weeks ago it was under 18. Fear doesn't arrive gradually. It arrives all at once. And we're not even past the first act. https://t.co/7Fy3joZKAi
Jobs Data Sparks Early Volatility Across Crypto, Oil, Tech
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
Dow Plunges as Supply Chain Enters Cardiac Arrest
Dow down 785 points on March 5. Worst week since October. Oil at $81. Yields rising. VIX spiking. And somehow, everyone's still debating whether this is a "healthy pullback." There is nothing healthy about a supply chain in cardiac arrest. https://t.co/t59DwX0YJy
S&P Holds Support; Jobs Data Could Shift Momentum
$SPX :6775 is active support, then the lows of the week at 6710. Jobs report at 8:30 could change the picture — the street is modeling ~+55k, and in-line or a little stronger would be better than a miss. https://t.co/qIBCw3h3lN
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
Hormuz Strait Closure Halts Major Global Oil Flow
The Straight of Hormuz, which is a key shipping lane for the world's oil, fertilizer and other products, is effectively shut. Charts from @bloomberg: https://t.co/zunbN3eO7G
Apple Dips Below Triangle; Watch MAG 7 Recovery
$AAPL broke down under minor triangle support today, & always important to monitor the "Generals" when they show meaningful strength or weakness @IBDinvestors @marketsurge While SPX and QQQ have proven range-bound in recent months, the action has proven...
Live Market Recap: SPX, QQQ Rally at 5pm ET
We're going LIVE today at 5pm ET / 2pm ET for our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with Dave Keller. Excited to break down the latest charts and market observations as $SPX and $QQQ rallied hard into the...
ES_F Weekly Hits 1.618 Extension, AVWAP at 6460
$ES_F bigger picture, weekly, still amazing topped right at the 1.618 extension, the 1.382 sits at lower value edge now, 6682.5, below that it gets real thin back to 6125 with AVWAP off 2025 low at 6460 important too https://t.co/dOkIMQUPwK
Markets Tumble $800B as Volatility Surges 70%
Brutal day, the S&P 500 has wiped out around $800 billion in market cap, falling 1.4%. The Dow Jones is having its worst day of 2026, down over 2% 📉 Meanwhile the VIX (volatility index) is up 17% and is now...
Record Hedge Activity Signals Unprecedented Investor Fear
🚨Investors are hedging against a market crash at a record pace: Combined put open interest in credit ETFs, $HYG, $LQD, $JNK, and $BKLN, plus call open interest in the Treasury ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 15.9 million contracts. This has...
Iran Risk Unpriced; Oil, USD, Yields Threaten Market Crash
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...
Weak SPX Mirrors BTC: Market Correction Looms
SPX continues to be weak, as the market has not really durably moved higher in months. Same thing happened with BTC, and it eventually led to a correction https://t.co/P0cSGNfg90
Amazon's $AMZN: Breakout Above 225, Breakdown Below 200
$AMZN > 225 = breakout above all the moving averages $AMZN < 200 = breakdown of key support $AMZN between 200 and 225 = 💤 https://t.co/GbWTIoHDaR
Boston Scientific Slides to 52‑Week Low, Down 34%
Boston Scientific $BSX -34.1% from highs... another contestant on the 52-week new lows list... https://t.co/MCT33YSBqJ
Marvell Options Signal ~$11 Move, 89.5% Volatility
Live look at $MRVL chart ahead of its scheduled earnings today. Options expiring March 20th show an implied volatility reading of 89.5%, which is about a (+/-) $11.41 move from the underlying stock.
Small‑cap Surge Signals Regime Shift Away From Growth
S&P 600 up 9% YTD. S&P 500 flat. Tech lagging. Energy leading. Value crushing growth. This isn't a head fake. This is a regime change. The small-cap rotation is real and it's getting started. https://t.co/AYVusIGbRd
Watch the Metric Near Critical 44 Threshold
FWIW - Sure feels like something to keep a close eye on no now that we've arrived at 43.9999. https://t.co/00dDXuJBOI
Ignore Media Spin: WMT Weakness Reveals Consumer Reality
Beware of False Narratives When we were shorting $WMT $10 higher than today's price (which is -$4.98 in trading), the "talking heads" made up narratives that the $WMT strength confirmed the notion that the consumer is swell. Stay independent and turn the...
Software Stocks Surge on Insider Buys and Double Earnings Play
CRM big push in Software today as well, call fly earnings play now more than a double, seeing a lot of these names rally with insider buys, buybacks into the Software is Dead move
SPY Breakout Above 690 Targets All‑time High
$SPY - a breakout above 689.00-690.00 sets the stage for a move to retest all time highs.
Bond Volatility Bet Hurts Markets, Boosts TW MK
Treasury (TLT) buyer 5000 December $89 straddles expecting bond volatility, tends to be bad for markets, good for TW MKTX
Live NYSE Market Breakdown with Schwab Network
Jumping on the NYSE set of the @SchwabNetwork to break down this market with @NPetallides in a moment.
AI Boosts Productivity, Surpassing Pre‑Pandemic Forecasts
Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
Current Cycle Productivity Hits Long‑Term 2.2% Benchmark
"The 2.2-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and...
Market Stuck in Range: Trade Levels, Avoid Big Bets
📺 THE MARKET’S BIGGEST TRAP RIGHT NOW It has been one of the most difficult and volatile trading weeks in a long time. Despite geopolitical headlines and sharp overnight moves, every attempted breakdown quickly failed. Key levels like $SPY $675–$682 and $QQQ...
US Economy Gains Momentum Across Services, Manufacturing, Auto, Small‑Biz Hiring
Some recent data: * ISM services best since Aug '22 * ISM manufacturing >50 two months in row after years < 50 * Auto sales were better than expected * ADP best in 7 months and most of the jobs came from small...
Down Days Are Buying Opportunities in Bullish Trends
Why would you get "stopped out" of something that's still Bullish TREND @Hedgeye? Down days are Buying Opportunities
Tech Rebounds as QQQ Climbs Past $600
Tech started doing better. $qqq reclaimed $594 area on Tuesday to relieve pressure and hit $612 yesterday. A digestion day above $607-$609 would be constructive https://t.co/CakJqjZ5sf
US Stocks Close Gap, End Worst Start Since 1995
US plays major catch-up to ex-US YTD... @augurinfinity No longer the worst start to a year since 1995... not by a long shot $SPY $VEU $VTI $ACWI https://t.co/l8DRcKNBof
Weight, Not Stock Choice, Drives Performance Differences
The problem isn’t the stocks, it’s their weight. These two lines contain the same exact stocks. #Mag7Diet $RSP $SPY https://t.co/OXqmQXkEkc