COIN Rebounds; Upside Hinges on Crypto Market Recovery
$COIN rebounding despite its earnings miss. Is the fallout over for crypto? Its recovery will be highly tied to the crypto markets. No crypto trading = less fees earned. Valuation is pretty attractive, but remains high risk. Solid upside above 170.00.
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
Last Year's Job Growth Fell Below a Single Biden Month
“.. we had less job growth all of last year than we had in an average month during the Biden administration.”
CENX Forms Classic Broadening Top, Echoing 1929 Pattern
The share price of $CENX is forming a classic broadening top pattern, similar to the famous 1929 chart of Air Reduction Corp. https://t.co/2CLb8yjOP6
SPY and QQQ Bounce After Breaking Yesterday
Tactically $spy pushed below yesterday’s low and reclaimed it for a bounce cash flow move. U guys know what to do with that Same for $qqq
S&P Erases Almost All 2026 Gains Amid AI Hype
Forget Trump's AI HYPE. The S&P Index has now given up nearly all its 2026 gains. https://t.co/GAL0TbU7KG
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
After 9-Month Rally, February Pause Is Healthy
The Dow is up 9 months in a row and we are in the banana peel month of February. Yes, they might blame it on AI or something else, just know a little pause here and now is perfectly normal and...
Core CPI Spikes in January, Steadies at 2.5% Yearly
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
AAP Soars Post‑Earnings as Call Buyer Adjusts
$AAP ripping on earnings as call buyer been adjusting and right for weeks here https://t.co/NDM9mXOd3k
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
McGough Urges Immediate Buy of GameStop Stock
McGough LIVE on The Call right now saying BUY Gamestop $GME on the open @HedgeyeRetail
AI‑linked Firms See Growth, yet Stocks Tumble
The market is now punishing even those companies which are beneficiaries of AI. These businesses are accelerating their revenue growth and their management is explicitly stating that AI is a tailwind, yet their stocks are being crushed. Unreal.
SPX Futures Slip, Risk‑Off Bias Ahead
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
Friday the 13th Rally Masks Monday’s 18% Drop
Stocks are up an annualized 22.6% on Friday the 13th. What really should scare you is a simple case of The Mondays, as stocks are down 18.3% on Monday. #FridayThe13th https://t.co/M74coxbyXF
Investors Unwittingly Swap Value Stocks for Overpriced Picks
The funny thing is that in this value rotation, many investors are unknowingly shifting from value stocks to expensive ones. https://t.co/wliuup8rSq
January Job Loss Smaller, Yields 130k Seasonal Gain
Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...
Rising SPX Put Skew May Push VIX to 30
SPX put skew is really starting to warm up here, while ATM IV remains relatively subdued. If SPX 30) https://t.co/p9qsHp8nHk
Gemini Miscalculates Google’s Massive Depreciation Drag
Coming up on @thestreetpro More Tales From Nvidia: The Depreciation "Tail and Spike" Will Be Painful to Mag7 Profits (Issue #178!) * As free cash flow is plummeting... I decided to ask the AI about itself. In this case, I asked Google Gemini about...
Global Fund Flows Outpace US, Shifting Investment Balance
US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...
Oil Returns Green, Signaling Bullish Energy Buying Opportunity
OIL: ticks back into the green and remains Bullish TREND @Hedgeye Yesterday was the 1st day where we could start buying some Energy Exposure on red https://t.co/eURgEMfFpO
Two of Quad3’s Three Worst US Equity Sectors
SECTORS: as we reminded you, these are 2 of the 3 WORST US Equity Sector Styles in #Quad3 https://t.co/yr2fNhpUZH
Dow Slips Under 50,000, Erasing $1 Trillion
The DOW has fallen below 50,000 today. $1 trillion was wiped out from the US stock market. No one tell Pam Bondi.
Today's Sell‑off Feels Like a WallStreetBets Mockumentary
As causal narratives go, the one behind today's sell-off reads like it came out of the script for a Christopher Guest mockumentory. Think "Best in Show" meets r/Wallstreetbets. https://t.co/2HYvEmMpnC https://t.co/8KYvf56ooM
Value, Cyclicals, Small Caps Overtake Mega‑Cap Growth
Indexes look stable, but leadership is shifting. Value, cyclicals, and small caps are quietly taking the baton from mega-cap growth. This isn’t speculation; it’s a broadening market demanding cash flow and balance-sheet strength.
AI Hype Lags Behind Market Expectations
Our evening garage band - "AI Scare Trade" comes from the market. While swift, Taylor it's not.
Gold Surge Signals Capital Shift, Not Risk‑On Rally
Record gold prices + a weakening dollar don’t scream “risk-on.” They signal global capital reallocation and rising demand for insurance amid lingering policy uncertainty. Hedging behavior is increasing even as equities grind higher.
S&P Slides, Apple & Cisco Plunge, VIX Tops 20
Tough session today. $SPX opened higher but rolled over hard. $AAPL -5% $CSCO -12% and the VIX closed back above 20. Meanwhile utilities and staples pushed higher. I walk through the key support levels and what breaks the trend next:...
January CPI Likely Spikes Amid Data Gaps
Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the...
Tight Credit Spreads, Fast‑Food Struggles, Tariff Burden Revealed
🆓 Thursday links: tight credit spreads, fast food woes, and who is paying the cost of tariffs. https://t.co/NOuKmm78S8 image: https://t.co/Lhs7cz5vWL https://t.co/nj3y6g7t8i
Defensive REITs and Utilities Lead Market Breakouts
Ventas $VTR the Fin Prop REIT, eclipsing highs going back to 2013 as REITS start to kick into gear again with Utilities to join the recent strength seen in Staples, Telco @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Strength in these defensives is more than...
Software Short‑squeeze Looms as Consumer Staples Pull Back
Whose ready for the short-squeeze in software over the next week because the 26 year-old analysts at the multi-platform funds convinced their PM's to go max short? Then we'll get the Consumer Staples pullback at the same time, when all the...
Tech Stocks Peaked; Valuations Stretched, Technical Outlook Shaky
The big issue is Tech Stocks have peaked, are on technically shaky ground ---AND this is coming from a starting point of stretched Valuations. https://t.co/3QKdtdJm7n
February's Second Half: Beware the Banana Peel Danger
We've been saying all month that February is the banana peel month. Be aware the second half of the month is when trouble usually happens. https://t.co/Nv67B6dKQS
S&P500 Sees Unprecedented Daily 7% Drops, Echoing Dotcom Crash
Wild market. We haven't seen anything like this since the dotcom bubble burst. Over the last 8 sessions, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have decline 7% or more in a single day. The average drawdown when that happens is...
Expensive Stocks Trigger Sell‑off, Narrative Needed
What if a bunch of stocks just got kind of expensive, are selling off, and we need a narrative? Just sayin…
Software Stocks Tumble; Crypto Mirrors the Decline
Software stocks are struggling again today. $IGV (iShares Software ETF) is essentially back to last week's panic lows. Don't forget there's another type of software, "programmable money," crypto. Bitcoin (blue) with the software index (orange). They are the same thing. https://t.co/tLEELqcWcJ
EXPD Faces Biggest Sell‑Off Since 1998 Crisis
Worst sell-off in this logistics/tech company since 1998 (LTCM & Russian Debt Crisis) $EXPD Bigger than Tariffs, March 2020, 2008. AI Fears https://t.co/pSckCN9oYm
Biden's Trade Deficit Slightly Lower than Trump's, Not 78% Drop
So, for the record: The trade deficit in the first 11 months of the Trump administration was $839.5B. In the same period in 2024, the final Biden year, it was $806.6B. And if you think this year's performance is a...
All Markets Tumble, $3.6T Erased in 90 Minutes
-$3.6T in 90 minutes Gold fell 3.76%, wiping out nearly $1.34T in market cap. Silver dropped 8.5%, losing around $400B in market value. The S&P 500 declined 1%, erasing $620B. Nasdaq slid more than 1.6%, shedding $600B. The crypto...
New Investors Shift From Tech to Industrials, Energy, Metals
How is the "newborn" buy industrials, energy and metals instead of tech crowd feeling today?
Silver Stalls Below 75; Inflation Data Could Spark Metal Rally
$SLV having big trouble getting above 75.00 again...which still won't be enough to restore confidence. Big inflation report ahead...precious metals may see a big reaction.
Market Shifts to AI Fear, Not Bubble, Concerns
The market is more in “AI fear” mode than “AI bubble” mode currently Everyone fears the left tail in their business
Palantir Down 30% YTD: Bulls
Tough year to be a Palantir bull. $PLTR is down 30% YTD with no sign of reversal. Are you buying this dip?
Headline Inflation Cools, Core CPI Accelerates in January
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...