Global Equities Surge Far Beyond S&P 2025
Since the start of 2025: S&P 500 +19.5% European stocks +45.3% Emerging markets +50.8% Asian stocks +55.9% https://t.co/lrZrKKIC4x
Steepening Yield Curve Could Shift QE Benefits to Main Street
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
Fed Treasury to Coordinate
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
Thursday's Top Market Insights: Funds, Tech, Bitcoin
10 Thursday AM Reads: -Fidelity Contrafund’s Will Danoff’s Secret Sauce -200 lines of markdown just triggered a $285 billion sell-off —what broke -Your stocks have been slumping, but you probably can’t blame Trump -Bitcoin’s Binary Endgame -Stumped Waymos Driven From Philippines https://t.co/FLNkyDLJUD
Asian Stocks Outpace US, Shifting Money Abroad
Perhaps the trade this year isn't so much "sell America," but rather something like: "spend a lot more money everywhere else" - at least so far this year. For example, Asian stocks have made their best start over US equities...
Equal‑Weight S&P Leads S&P 500, Biggest Gap Since 1992
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is outperforming the S&P 500 this year by the largest margin since **1992** (YTD) --Dow Jones Market Data https://t.co/6EV9smAqNP
Nvidia Chips Generate $8‑10 Economic Ripple per Dollar
"When I look out over the next two, three years, a ripple effect for every dollar spent on $NVDA chips, there's an $8-10 multiplier across software and infrastructure" 🎙️ @DivesTech joins Dan on the latest Okay, Computer. https://t.co/kyBad40Wln
Forecasting Trends, NAV Squeeze Mechanics, Active ETF Surge
🆓 Wednesday links: focusing on forecasting, how NAV squeezing works, and the rise of the active ETF. https://t.co/bgzuhBy1Uq image: https://t.co/JRCEGjVQN2 https://t.co/PSs8BSV9vG
Tech Peaks; Next Moves Mapped in 10 Charts
Off-Topic ChartStorm - Tech Stocks Tech has topped, what's next? Here's 10 charts outlining the situation and thoughts on the risks + opportunities: https://t.co/WKltkF9gOt https://t.co/k0pxNxZedy
Yen Carry Trade Holds; USD Weakens, Markets Rise
Yen Carry Trade Is Not Unwinding Like You Think $USDJPY $FXY $QQQ $DXY Japan & China’s pressure on Treasury sales are weakening the USD, supporting equities + metals overall, without triggering a disruptive yen carry trade unwind. https://t.co/m6Mu3FpuRf
AI Spending Cemented, Driving Multiplier Effect Across Tech
AI spending isn't a debate anymore, it's cemented. @DivesTech on the multiplier effect across software, infrastructure and data centers 💻🚧 https://t.co/TC1BjQAHtv
CBO Underestimates AI's Productivity Boost, Forecasts Too Low
CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect *slowing* potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over...
Earnings Season Sparks 5.2% Avg Move, Largest Since 2012
The average stock reporting so far this earnings season has moved 5.2% up or down, the biggest post-earnings move since at least 2012--Citi https://t.co/Avh8yKzn1V
Bulls Near Record, Yet Options and Speculatives Stay Low
Sentiment in the stock market appears somewhat mixed. The Investors Intelligence survey (below) does show that the percentage of bulls is near the historical highs (62) while the percent bears is near the low (15). However, that level of enthusiasm is...
Jobs Surge, Unemployment Drops: GDP Gains Confirm Strength
On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes that stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved...
Trump’s Trillion-Dollar Savings Claim Ignores Fixed-Rate Debt
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
January Jobs Spark Rate‑cut Doubts Despite Solid Hires
Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...
Global Payout Growth Outpaces US, Driving Valuations
And it’s not just global earnings that have been showing momentum. Payouts (dividends + buybacks) have been advancing as well, as companies near and far have become more shareholder savvy. The growth rate of payouts has been the primary driver...
Shareholder Rejects Netflix Deal, Backs Paramount Bid
Small Warner Bros. Discovery Shareholder Blasts ‘Flawed, Inferior’ Netflix Offer and Backs Paramount’s Hostile Bid — but Will It Matter? https://t.co/NGSPvAdqOW via @variety
Global Earnings Boom Ends S&P’s EAFE Uptrend
The earnings boom has gone global, with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P 500 and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences...
Strong Earnings, Modest Overvaluation—Boom, Not Bubble
This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x, the n12m P/E multiple doesn’t seem too onerous at 22x, considering not only the earnings...
Strong NFP Spurs Fed Pause, Dollar Gains, Market Pullback
NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
Jobs Report Day Shows Record Forecast Divergence
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...
US Hiring Slumps to Recession-Level, Job Market Fragile
⚠️US HIRING IS AT RECESSION LEVELS: US hiring rate sits at just 3.3%, in line with the 2020 Crisis and one of the lowest readings in 13 years. Hiring is even weaker than during the 2001 recession and at levels seen during...
Markets Await Jobs Data to Gauge Fed Cut Prospects
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
US Consumer Credit Surges $24B, Outpacing Forecasts
Total US consumer credit increased by $24.05 billion in December, far higher than forecasts of an $8.0 billion increase.
AI‑Driven Sell‑Off Sparks Tech Opportunities on Bloomberg TV
Look forward to discussing this AI driven sell-off and the opportunities in tech on @BloombergTV at 9:40 am with @mattmiller1973 and @daniburgz 🔥🍿📺🐂🏆🎯
Long Credit, Short Software: Overlooked Hedgeye Macro Theme
Macro Themes Deck (148 slides) @HedgeyeTV 11AM tomorrow Sneak Peak: this slide shows our Long Credit, Short Software Theme that MANY missed https://t.co/sBbXGGtVAr
AI Accounts for Just 7% of January Layoffs
🔴AI is NOT the reason for job market LAYOFFS: Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited in 7,624 of 108,435 layoffs announced in January, representing 7% of all cuts that month. Since 2023, AI has been referenced in just 3% of all job cuts...
Growth Slows, Yields Rise—Short Treasury Duration
Macro: growth softens, yields rise. Key: sticky CPI, Fed tightening, tight labor. Risks: stagflation, policy error. Trade: short US Treasury duration as real yields climb. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Markets Defensive as SPX Stalls Below 7000
Markets turned more defensive Tuesday as early strength faded... In today’s CHART THIS: • $SPX stuck below 7000 • Bonds rally on weaker retail sales • $GOOGL below the 50-day • $AVGO trapped between key MAs • Earnings: $KO $MAR $GILD $HOOD CHART THIS -> https://t.co/pHGfUwqPar
Dow Hits Record High, Markets Eye January CPI
MARKET RECAP 📈 The Dow Jones closed at another record high, now up 4.3% so far in 2026. All eyes on January CPI coming this Friday 👀 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
Underlying Inflation Near 2.5%, Likely to Ease Further
The ECI data out this morning is consistent with the thesis that underlying inflation is around 2.5%. And labor market looseness suggests that is more likely to go down than up. Wages ex volatile incentive pay have been steadily growing at...
Uber Slides to Multi‑month Low, 30% Off Recent High
$UBER one of the show's favorite longs hits a multi month low and is now close to -30% below its recent high. Crickets. @dougkass @KeithMcCullough
Financial Stocks Overvalued, Commoditization Signals Short Opportunity
Financial stocks are "overearning" and subject to disruption. Altruist's tool is the tip of the iceberg. Today's share price declines are justified, imho - as pricing of industry product offerings will become more commoditized. This was inevitable. Trading at historic premiums...
Upcoming Jobs Report May Reveal Weaker Labor Market
The jobs report is due out tomorrow. Along with it, are the annual benchmark revisions. In other words, we may soon learn that the labor market is in worse shape than we thought. https://t.co/b44jhyLPVL
Dallas Fed Sees Rates Near Neutral, Warns Stubborn Inflation
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sounded more confident about the labor market outlook compared to Sept and Nov. She is also slightly more optimistic about inflation, pointing to recent downtrends in the "trimmed mean" PCE reading. But her bottom line is...
Seeking Bull Case for Discounted HAL Stock
RPK, last time I asked you about $RIG signaling buy more - what's the bull case on $HAL on sale? @RPKent
Snap‑back Rallies Off Strong Support Aren’t Reversals
Little Bounces Off Big Support From my live trading room Friday... Snap-back rallies off big support does not a trend-reversal make 🙃 $MSFT $AMZN $QQQ $BTCUSD $SLV https://t.co/OLa6XrVvqJ
Railroads Hit All-Time Highs, AI Disruption Unlikely
No AI disruption worries in railroads, with Union Pacific, CSX, and Norfolk Southern all touching ATHs
U.S. Stocks Under Pressure as SPX/VEU Hits Near Two‑Year Low
The 'sell America' trade pressure seems to be picking up again. The SPX-VEU (rest of world equity ETF) ratio is the lowest since April 22nd. A little further and it is a two year low. Adding the DXY Dollar Index in for...
Amazon Steadies; Rally to 200‑day MA Signals Trade
$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question...
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Now at 3.7% Q4 2025
GDPNow model (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from @AtlantaFed down to +3.7% q/q annualized for 4Q2025 https://t.co/NKqC4jdaL0
Fed Likely Holds Off Policy Changes for Year
Bessent on balance sheet policy in a Warsh Fed: "I wouldn't expect them to do anything quickly. They've moved to an ample [reserves] regime ... that does require a larger balance sheet. So I would think they'll probably sit back,...
Committee Claims New Focus, Still Clings to Big Caps
Imagine being on a pretent "investment committee" that has finally figured out being Long Industrials $XLI and isn't Long of the Big $CAT ? lol Reality: they're all still long of the #Bag7 Stocks and widely held Large Cap Financials...
White House Inflates Payrolls; Revisions Could
WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada. https://t.co/RILDizthdl
Private-Sector Wages Barely Slowed, up 3.38% YoY
ECI: Private-sector pay growth decelerated ever so slightly last year. Wages and salaries for private sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations was +3.38% in Q4 from a year earlier, unchanged from Q3. https://t.co/769ycb4jwP
COIN Bounces Off $145 Support, Aligns With Low Targets
Can't help but notice $COIN is bouncing off major league support around $145, lining up well with the Sep '24 and Mar '25 lows. Previous lows have been confirmed with a bullish crossover from weekly PPO. But dang...
Software Multiples Hit 2014 Lows Amid AI Fears
Software earnings have been quite resilient, yet prices have collapsed over AI worries. As a result, multiples are the cheapest they've been since 2014. Sometimes things are cheap for a reason, but what if this is another DeepSeek moment? Nice charts...
Holiday Sales Slump and Rising Delinquencies Hit Young, Low‑Income Americans
The one-two punch today of highly disappointing holiday retail sales and the highest consumer delinquencies since 2017 paints a bleak picture for lower-income and younger Americans. https://t.co/Bd2eX18BAU https://t.co/H1biY6UCIL