Bonds Blogs and Articles
Bonds Blogs and Articles
Bonds Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation and credit risk are factored in, the adjusted spread could be as low as 19‑25 basis points, far below the headline 30‑36‑bp figure. This suggests the yield curve’s inversion may be deeper than surface metrics indicate.
The author finally built a CD ladder using Fidelity’s automated tool, opting for brokered certificates of deposit to achieve safety and flexibility. By allocating $100,000 into five $20,000 CDs spanning one‑ to five‑year maturities, the ladder can roll over automatically...
The article reflects on the historic reversal of power between bond and equity traders, noting how equities eclipsed fixed‑income revenue after the 1994 bond market collapse. It highlights the cultural divide that still separates the two desks, with bond traders...
The article examines how Treasury bond returns move together with U.S. stock returns, showing that comovement has shifted from positive in the 1980s to negative in the 2000s and back to positive after 2022. Using rolling 90‑day regressions on daily...
Bloomberg’s latest Pro Tips episode demonstrates how analysts can accelerate issuer credit research using CRAN, the Credit Research Analysis tool on the Bloomberg Terminal. The tutorial walks users through data retrieval, rating analysis, and key financial metrics in minutes. Bloomberg...
The episode dissects YYY, an ETF that offers exposure to a rules‑based basket of high‑income closed‑end funds (CEFs) via a fund‑of‑funds structure. It highlights the layered risks of credit exposure, embedded leverage, and premium/discount dynamics, noting that performance is highly...
The U.S. Treasury’s latest 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) auction posted a real yield of 2.473%, the second‑highest level in the past 16 years and the highest since the series was relaunched in February 2010. Demand was strong, with the...
Veritas, the Finnish pension insurer, is moving past traditional credit benchmarks to chase carry in frontier‑market local‑currency bonds. Portfolio manager Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi argues that corporate spreads in developed markets are near historic lows, making high‑yield bonds unattractive due to equity‑like...
The episode revisits the author’s earlier research reports from October and December 2025 on a leading natural‑gas utility, reaffirming its investment thesis built on ultra‑low leverage, a management team focused on debt reduction, high‑quality assets, and accelerating free cash flow....
Nordea’s Active Rates Opportunities Fund has broken the €1 billion AUM threshold, underscoring strong investor appetite for low‑risk, active‑duration fixed‑income solutions. Since its 2019 launch, the fund has delivered more than 2 % per annum in net returns above cash, even as...
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
The US Treasury will publish its latest International Capital (TIC) data, showing foreign investors holding a record $9.36 trillion of Treasury securities. China’s holdings slipped to roughly $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while Japan remains the top holder with about...
Ulf Erlandsson is returning to Sweden’s Fourth National Pension Fund (AP4) as Senior Fixed Income Portfolio Manager for liquid credit, after nearly a decade on the hedge‑fund side. He founded the Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute, a climate‑focused research nonprofit, and...
U.S. Treasury yields opened modestly weaker on Tuesday after a volatile three‑day‑weekend, but steadied by mid‑morning. The 10‑year note rose to 4.06% before trading flat through the close, marking a calm finish despite earlier upside pressure. No fresh economic releases...
U.S. Treasury bonds extended last week’s rally by a few basis points in early domestic trading, though the advance faded later in the session. Market participants attribute part of the prior week’s rise to defensive positioning ahead of a three‑day...
The episode examines a REIT's high‑yield bond, which trades above 7% with a 340‑basis‑point spread despite solid market fundamentals and improving leasing. Management is actively selling $280‑300 million of assets, using proceeds to cut debt and potentially buy back bonds, positioning...
India’s corporate funding is increasingly sourced domestically as the yield gap with US Treasuries narrows to about 2.5%, eroding the cost advantage of foreign‑currency debt. Deepening private‑credit markets now finance even near‑investment‑grade borrowers, exemplified by a recent $3.4 billion rupee‑denominated deal....
U.S. Treasury rates slipped across the curve in the week ending February 13, 2026. The 30‑year yield fell 0.16%, while the benchmark 10‑year dropped 0.18% to 4.04%. The 3‑year note settled at 3.43%. The declines reflect modest easing in market...
The Treasury will auction a 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Security (TIPS) this week, offering a real‑yield that could attract investors seeking long‑term inflation hedges. Analysts note that redeeming early‑year I Bonds can generate an unexpected tax liability, complicating cash‑flow planning. Recent CPI...
In Part II, the podcast examines how the ongoing "Great Compression" of money‑market rates is pushing the Federal Reserve to replace its traditional overnight Fed Funds target with a new benchmark. It explains that overnight Fed Funds volume has collapsed...
The episode reviews Zambia's overdue debt restructuring progress, highlighting a post‑default €3 billion Eurobond swap that now accounts for about a quarter of its external debt and a 95% debt‑to‑GDP ratio. It notes strong market rebounds with the kwacha up 15%...
The episode examines a ten‑year preferred security that now trades just above par, offering a high current yield and a short time to a likely call. The host highlights the bond’s attractive spread over Treasuries, its qualified‑dividend tax treatment, and...
January’s consumer‑price index showed modest headline inflation, rising 0.3% month‑over‑month and 3.2% year‑over‑year, but the report included several qualifiers. Core CPI eased to 4.8% annual, driven by lower energy costs, while shelter and services remained sticky. Analysts highlighted the mixed...
Bonds rallied as the latest CPI data showed headline inflation just below forecasts and core inflation on target, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields down to 4.07%. Shelter costs continued to ease, with owners' equivalent rent hitting a cycle low. Meanwhile, the...
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
The bond market’s recent volatility, sparked by a strong jobs report, has calmed after this morning’s modest jobless‑claims data. Claims rose to 227,000, slightly above the 222,000 forecast but below the prior 232,000 level. With the CPI release looming, traders...
The 10‑year Treasury yield slipped 8 basis points after a trio of surprisingly strong labor‑market releases, settling just below the 4.20% technical barrier. January’s payrolls added 130,000 jobs, far exceeding the 70,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%...
Bond yields pulled back toward the 4.1‑4.2% band after weak retail‑sales data, reversing a brief flirtation with the 4.30% ceiling on the 10‑year Treasury. The market is now pricing in a softer labor outlook ahead of the February non‑farm payrolls...
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the board for the week ending February 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate fell 0.02 percentage points, while the 10‑year yield dropped 0.04 points to 4.22 %. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.57 %, reflecting a modest broad‑based decline. These...
Overnight Treasury markets experienced a sharp, high‑volume move despite a relatively narrow price range. The volatility was triggered by news that Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Domestic traders quickly digested the information, and by...
The episode dissects private‑credit defaults, arguing that most defaults are driven by borrower‑specific (idiosyncratic) factors rather than systemic risk, which the media often exaggerates for clicks. Data from the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index shows realized losses remain well below historic...
The episode examines a regional bank that has rebuilt its balance sheet, achieving profitability, capital ratios above 12%, and improved liquidity after addressing over $12 billion of higher‑risk loans. It highlights that despite these fundamentals, the bank’s subordinated floating‑rate notes are...
India’s household financial portfolio is shifting away from traditional safe assets toward equities and managed funds. Between March 2021 and March 2025, bank deposits fell from roughly 47.5% to 43.5% of total financial assets, while mutual‑fund and pension holdings rose...
MBS outperformed Treasuries on Feb 6, rising two ticks while 5‑ and 10‑year yields fell about six ticks. The move suggests possible GSE buying despite no official data. Consumer sentiment posted 57.3, beating forecasts, and inflation expectations eased to 3.5% for...
Friday's economic calendar was thin, with only the Consumer Sentiment report standing out. Treasury yields edged slightly higher but stayed near the 4.20% threshold, keeping bond markets largely unchanged. The previous day's disappointing labor figures have heightened market attention on...
The episode explains how a shift in global liquidity, driven by the Federal Reserve’s move toward quantitative tightening, is ending the era of easy money and causing risk assets like Bitcoin and high‑growth tech stocks to falter. It highlights the...
U.S. Treasury bonds edged higher in early trading on Thursday, with gains accelerating after 7 a.m. ET. The market reacted to two labor‑market releases: the Challenger job‑cut data at 7:30 a.m. and the more impactful weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the latter...
The episode dissects BlackRock TCPC’s recent 19% NAV drop, revealing that the loss was driven by six concentrated positions heavily weighted in second‑lien loans and equity rather than first‑lien senior debt. The host contrasts this risky capital‑structure positioning and volatile...
ADP's employment numbers released at 8:15 a.m. ET came in softer than analysts expected, yet Treasury yields barely moved. Fifteen minutes later, the Treasury Department posted its quarterly financing estimates, which were in line with prior forecasts but warned that borrowing...
The episode explores a new Longview Research Partners analysis that challenges the traditional view of bond interest and REIT dividends as portfolio positives, showing that forced investment income can erode over 1% of after‑tax wealth for high‑net‑worth investors. The hosts...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Warsh is pushing to restart quantitative tightening, signaling a shift toward shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet. This move comes even as the Fed recently expanded its holdings to ease strains in the funding market. Warsh’s...
The episode explores "peer momentum," the idea that a stock’s future returns can be better predicted by the recent performance of its connected firms—not just its own past returns. Research shows that using industry‑level peer momentum yields annualized return spreads...
Asset‑management veteran Christopher Reider has surged to the front of the Federal Reserve chair race, positioning himself as the most suitable candidate for a fiscal‑dominant environment. Reider, a political outsider with no evident Trump connections, argues for lowering the policy...
The episode examines a high‑yield note offering over 8.5% that is backed by a company aggressively reducing its debt, positioning it for a potential rating upgrade within the next two years. It highlights how the current spread reflects genuine compensation...
The episode examines a senior housing REIT whose current spread over the BBB index undervalues its credit quality, citing a strong net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio, ample liquidity, and improving rent coverage. It argues that the market misreads the issuer as...
Construction spending for October rose modestly, with total nominal spending up 0.5% and residential construction up 1.3%. After adjusting for a 0.2% decline in material prices, real overall spending increased 0.7% and residential spending 1.5%, pushing both series close to...
In this episode, Larry Swedroe discusses a new study by Jihoon Goh, Suk‑Joon Byun, and Donghoon Kim that uncovers how the “salience effect”—investors’ attraction to stocks with dramatic past moves—interacts with the “break‑even bias,” a tendency to take riskier bets...
