Daily Energy Report
U.S. petroleum product exports surged to a new record in April 2026, according to the Daily Energy Report. The increase was most pronounced in shipments to Europe, which captured the bulk of the growth. The report’s “others” category, expected to be clarified soon, is believed to reflect rising exports to Asia. This upward trend underscores the United States’ expanding role as a global energy supplier.
The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War
President Trump used his latest address to reaffirm that the United States is on track to achieve its military objectives in Iran within a few weeks, signaling a longer‑than‑expected conflict. He repeated earlier claims that the war’s energy‑price impact is...
A Post Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks Report Run Down April 2, 2025
The USDA released its March Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks report on Tuesday, marking one of the year’s most closely watched agricultural data releases. The figures provide the first official glimpse into farmers’ crop‑planting plans for the upcoming season and...
Dizzying Fuel Prices Mostly Outside Gas Stations’ Control
U.S. gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, the highest level since 2022, driven primarily by surging crude oil costs linked to geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war. While consumers often blame stations, retailers only capture roughly 10%...
Major Ag Lender Warns of Arabica Land Losses From Climate Change
Rabobank, one of the world’s largest agricultural lenders, released a climate risk report warning that up to 20% of current Arabica coffee‑growing land could become unsuitable by 2050. Already 8% of the area is classified as unsuitable, with the most...
Under the Hood: How a Global Supply Shock Reaches Napa Valley
A sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global oil and natural‑gas prices, sending energy costs soaring for diesel‑dependent businesses. The price shock is already felt in Napa Valley, where vineyards face higher fuel bills, pricier industrial...
Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era...
President Donald Trump warned of a full‑scale bombing campaign against Iran following recent Israeli and U.S. strikes, reigniting geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The conflict has pushed crude oil to roughly $80 per barrel, a price level last seen...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat rebounded from Friday’s losses as the market closed for Good Friday, tightening liquidity and elevating existing positions. February crush and grind data matched expectations, while weekly export sales are projected to mirror last week’s figures. Traders...
Little Hedge Against Very High Oil Prices
Brazil’s flex‑fuel market creates a rapid hedge against soaring oil prices by shifting sugarcane use from sugar to hydrous ethanol when gasoline becomes costly. Lower hedging by mills lets them reallocate cane within a single harvest, tightening Brazil’s sugar exports....
US Diesel and Jet Fuel Shortages Looming in 2026? Will the Government Ban Exports?
U.S. diesel and jet fuel inventories have slipped sharply, with diesel down about 5 million barrels and jet fuel off 4 million barrels compared with the previous month. Refinery utilization is hovering near 92%, squeezing supply even as demand from trucking and...
The Energy Superidiot Strikes Back
Gas prices on the U.S. East Coast have stabilized at roughly $10 per gigajoule as the regional gas export cartel continues to prioritize domestic supply. The author labels this a resurgence of “gas idiocy,” implying the cartel’s actions are intentional...
Daily Energy Report
India’s petroleum product exports to Southeast Asia hit a record high in March 2026. The surge came even as the nation’s total petroleum product shipments fell that month. Historically stable seasonal patterns were overridden by heightened regional demand, pushing volumes...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
U.S. agricultural futures opened April on a sharp decline, driven more by a White House announcement that the Iran conflict may be winding down than by fundamental supply‑demand factors. USDA data were largely neutral, with corn acreage edging higher and...
Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - March, 2026
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz prompted a limited easing of sanctions on Russian crude, sparking a sharp surge in Urals oil prices. At the same time, Russia’s oil export capacity is being hampered by a series of...
Major Asset Classes | March 2026 | Performance Review
March 2026 saw a sharp market downturn driven by the escalating war with Iran. While most major asset classes posted losses, the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity‑Indexed Trust (GSG) surged more than 24%, making it the month’s top performer, and cash...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (30 March 2026)
Last week natural‑gas prices diverged across regions. In Asia, the JKM spot index jumped to $20 /MBtu, spiking into the high‑$22s amid renewed Iran‑related geopolitical risk and unplanned Australian LNG outages. Europe’s TTF fell to $18.3 /MBtu as Norwegian deliveries rose and...
Is the World Investing Sufficiently in LNG Downstream?
The article warns that global LNG downstream investment is lagging behind a surge in liquefaction capacity, driving the regas‑to‑liquefaction ratio down from 2.7 in 2015 to 2.4 in 2025 and projected to hit a historic low of 1.75 by 2035....
Famous Last Words: “Get Your Own Oil”
The article highlights that front‑month Brent and WTI futures have moved in lockstep since 2022, underscoring a highly integrated global oil market. It rebuts former President Trump’s claim that U.S. oil prices consistently diverge from world prices, labeling the view...
Macquarie Says Copper Is Oversupplied and Overpriced – by Frik Els (Mining.com – March 26, 2026)
Macquarie’s strategy team says copper is oversupplied and overpriced after a 1.5% drop to $5.47 per pound, roughly $12,000 a tonne. The metal has shed more than 16% – about $2,400 per tonne – from its January peak. The bank...
Daily Energy Report
The latest Daily Energy Report shows Iran remains the primary crude exporter through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have halted shipments entirely. Saudi Arabia has rerouted most of its oil to the Red Sea, and the...
Silver Daily Call for March 31st, 2026
Silver is approaching a pivotal technical juncture as it tests the down‑trend line formed over the past two months. Although the 4‑hour stochastic indicator shows overbought conditions, the price remains near the $73.50 resistance level. A breakout above $73.50 could...
Catalyst Watch
The latest Catalyst Watch notes that despite the largest oil price shock in history, the U.S. economy remains resilient, buoyed by its status as a net exporter of crude and natural gas. Fed officials cite stable macro data and no...
Oil Prices Rocket; Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Tanker; Some Hormuz Transits Resumes | Rapid Read 31 Mar 2026
Iran resumed selective control of the Strait of Hormuz, striking a Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai and permitting only flag‑aligned vessels such as COSCO to transit. The move coincides with a U.S. deployment of thousands of Army paratroopers to the Middle...
Ag Secretary Rollins Working Directly With Input Companies to Lower Prices
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is meeting directly with fertilizer and diesel input CEOs to seek price relief for farmers as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives up global input costs. Diesel and urea prices have surged, with urea up roughly 39%...
The Oil Crisis Is About to Get Physical
The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil, is now closed except for limited Iranian shipments, turning speculative price gains into an imminent physical shortage. J.P. Morgan predicts Gulf tankers will stop reaching Asian markets this...
Cocoa Slides as Structural Surplus Reshapes Market
ICE cocoa futures slipped to $3,165 per tonne, erasing more than 60% of the 2024 peak that topped $8,000. The International Cocoa Organization confirmed a 75,000‑tonne global surplus for 2024/25, the first in four years, while inventories rose to the...
Farm Action’s Letter to Congress, Lambasting the Concentration of Fertilizer Makers and Its Impact on Prices
Farm Action, a farmer‑led watchdog, warned that a handful of firms dominate U.S. fertilizer production, with four companies controlling 82% of nitrogen, two firms holding 90% of phosphate and 75% of potash. The organization argues that this concentration lets supply...
'Burn It Down': Destruction Of Persian Gulf Energy & Fertilizer Production Capacity
Energy analyst Anas Alhajji warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dramatically increased the risk and cost of Gulf oil and LNG, making U.S. exports far more competitive. Insurance shortages force LNG carriers to detour around Africa,...
Fuel Relief or Fuel Risk?
The Australian government’s planned fuel excise cut, worth about 26 cents per litre (≈ 0.18 USD), is expected to lower pump prices. However, analysts warn that in a tight, just‑in‑time supply chain, the sudden price drop could spark a rapid surge in consumer...
Sheep Slaughter Tightens, Lambs Mixed
Australia’s sheep slaughter volumes are contracting sharply across most major producing states as the post‑spring drawdown accelerates, while lamb processing shows a mixed picture. In New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia sheep throughput fell from 37‑47% to as low...
Middle East Production Offline: Current Status, Restart Timelines, and Well Damage Risk
More crude oil is offline across the Middle East than ever before, with roughly 7 million barrels per day shut in due to conflict‑related damage and precautionary curtailments. The blog analyses restart timelines, highlighting that infrastructure repairs and well damage could...
Daily Energy Report
Energy Outlook Analytics (EOA) reports that Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments are set to hit a record high in April and May, surpassing previous peaks. Kpler data shows March exports already above the typical seasonal baseline, indicating a steady...
113 Years of the Real Oil Price (WTI)
The article visualizes 113 years of CPI‑adjusted WTI oil prices, highlighting both absolute levels and growth rates. It notes that the 2008 year‑on‑year surge of 640% was the largest, surpassing the 1979‑80 increase that foreshadowed the 1980 recession. However, month‑on‑month...
Drillers See Triple-Digit Crude and Hit the Brakes
U.S. oil drillers are seeing Brent above $100 a barrel and WTI over $90, yet most remain reluctant to expand output. The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows only 21% intend to add significant wells, as firms focus on repairing balance...
Oil Rises, Asian Markets Sink as Middle East War Broadens
Oil prices surged on Monday as Brent crude briefly topped $117 a barrel and U.S. crude hovered around $102, driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East. Iran’s attacks on aluminium smelters in Bahrain and the UAE pushed metal prices...
What the Current Oil Crisis Means for Your Money (And an Asset Class Most Physicians Don’t Know About)
The U.S. and Israel’s recent strike on Iran prompted Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly 20% of global oil shipments and pushing crude above $120 a barrel. Higher oil prices quickly feed inflation, lift mortgage rates and...
The Severity of the Situation.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut roughly 11 million barrels of oil per day, creating the largest supply shock since the 1973 embargo and pushing prices toward $200 a barrel. Asian nations are already hoarding fuel and imposing...
They Say Farmers Are Underpaid. So Why Does Cheaper Cocoa Bring Such Relief?
The cocoa market has swung from record highs—above $4,000 per metric ton—to a sharp decline, leaving Ghanaian and Ivorian farmers unpaid for delivered beans. While chocolate makers scramble to cut margins, shrink bar sizes, or substitute ingredients, smallholder growers remain...
EVs Were Meant to Bypass Oil. Now They’re Stuck at the Strait of Hormuz
Electric vehicles rely heavily on Gulf‑sourced aluminum, but the U.S.–Iran conflict has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, forcing major smelters in Bahrain and Qatar to cut or halt output. Toyota and Nissan have already trimmed production by roughly 40,000 units,...
The New Baseline
The ongoing war in Iran has morphed from a geopolitical flashpoint into a structural supply‑chain shock. Tehran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of spill‑over into the Bab al‑Mandeb, is tightening energy flows and inflating oil...
Brent: Closing in on Post-Strike Highs
Brent crude futures are climbing toward the highs seen after the recent oil strike, even as broader markets show unusual alignment. Meanwhile, U.S. agriculture is under pressure, with farm numbers down nearly 150,000 over five years and farmland shrinking by...
Australian Doomsday April 20
Macquarie Bank warns that if the Iran‑Israel conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed through June, crude could climb to a record $200 a barrel. The bank’s March 27 analysis stresses that prolonged closure would force prices high enough to erode...
The Key Precious Metals Charts To Watch Now
The author updates the key precious‑metal charts amid heightened market volatility driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. Despite a sharp pullback, gold remains in an uptrend, as its 200‑day moving average stays upward‑sloping. The metal has become deeply oversold,...
Ukrainian Strikes Cause “Most Serious Threat” To Russian Oil Exports Since War Began
Ukrainian drone strikes on the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust‑Luga and the Kirishi refinery have knocked out roughly half of Russia's oil export capacity, the most severe disruption since the 2022 invasion began. The attacks, combined with recent seizures...
Quick Coal Vs. Gas Thoughts
At CERAWeek in Houston, industry leaders highlighted a rapid shift from coal to natural gas in power generation. The discussion, led by coal specialist Ernie Thrasher of XCoal, underscored falling coal demand, tighter coal‑gas price spreads, and mounting regulatory pressure...
DECOUPLING: Gold Ignores Oil and Stocks Correlation, Signaling a New Market Era?
Gold and silver surged today while the S&P 500 fell nearly 800 points and crude oil breached $100 per barrel, breaking the recent pattern where rising oil and falling stocks dragged precious metals lower. The Gold‑to‑Oil ratio, which had been...
Will QatarEnergy's LNG Fiasco Derail Goldman's Prewar View Of A Mega LNG Wave
QatarEnergy announced that an Iranian attack on its Ras Laffan facility has knocked out roughly 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, with repairs expected to take three to five years. The outage translates to about $20 billion in lost annual...
BUYING GOLD AGAIN
Investor Kevin Muir’s latest column signals a renewed appetite for gold as a hedge against rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. He notes that central banks are rebuilding reserves, while retail investors are turning to physical bullion after a prolonged period...
March Futures Expiry
Silver’s open interest has fallen to its lowest level in over two decades, suggesting the metal is deeply oversold and may soon reverse higher. Gold also shows weakness, with Comex open interest under 400,000 contracts and prices testing key moving...
Canadian Farmers Pinched by Iran War as Cost of Key Fertilizer Ingredient Climbs – by Darius Snieckus (National Observer –...
Canadian farmers face looming fertilizer shortages as the U.S.-Iran war chokes the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for phosphate and sulphur shipments. Canada imports over 2.6 million tonnes of phosphate annually, with roughly 80% coming via the United States, which...