Gold Demand Just Broke a Record. Supply Can’t Keep Up
A Reuters poll predicts gold will set another record in 2026 as central banks, 95% of those surveyed, plan to increase holdings to historic levels. U.S. demand surged 140% in 2025 to 679 tonnes, while ETF inflows added 437 tonnes, pushing assets under management to a record $280 billion. Goldman Sachs raised its end‑2026 price target to $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central‑bank buying and expected Fed rate cuts. Exploration firm Golden Goose Resources launched a systematic mapping program at its high‑grade Gran Esperanza project in Argentina, underscoring growing supply‑side activity.
Meanwhile, Iron Ore Is Stuffed
Iron ore prices have plunged as the market reacts to ongoing geopolitical conflicts rather than fundamentals of the metal itself. Rising input costs—particularly energy and logistics—are squeezing steel producers, prompting a sharp slowdown in production. This combination has turned the...
Venezuela Oil Output Rises to 1.1 Mln Bpd as Sector Recovery Gains Traction
Venezuela’s oil production climbed to roughly 1.1 million barrels per day in March, up from about 942,000 bpd in January. The rebound reflects easing U.S. sanctions, better access to diluents and a modest return of export flows, bringing output back to pre‑disruption...
Daily Energy Report
Dutch underground gas storage fell to roughly 6.11% of capacity on March 23, 2026, marking the lowest level for this time of year since at least 2010. The drawdown outpaces the broader EU average, which remains near 20%, and is...
Burdensome Grain & Oilseed Stocks?
Grain and oilseed inventories are not unusually high when measured against current use. U.S. corn ending stocks represent 13% of 2025 projected use, yielding a 12.9% stock‑use ratio—close to the post‑1997 average. World grain‑oilseed stock‑use ratios sit at 26.1%, only...
Anterview with Andy Millett
Andy Millett and Alasdair Macleod dissect the recent plunge in gold and silver prices, arguing that paper markets have become detached from the underlying bullion demand. They highlight weak speculative activity on COMEX and note that retail demand in the...
Is the Iran Crisis a Game-Changer for Russian Gas?
The article examines how the escalating Iran crisis could reshape Russia’s gas exports to Europe, a market where Russia still accounts for roughly 40% of supply. It argues that the EU’s recent pivot toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) has swapped...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Briefing
Overnight markets flipped, with grain futures slipping while soybean contracts rose. The shift comes amid a quiet news week ahead of next week’s USDA quarterly stocks and prospective plantings reports. Analysts are trimming corn acreage expectations and expanding soybean plantings,...
Can We Track Fertiliser Ships Before They Hit the Dock?
A proof‑of‑concept platform now tracks bulk fertilizer shipments bound for Australian ports before they berth, using publicly available shipping data combined with commercial signals. Early trials have successfully identified vessel names, tonnages, arrival dates and end‑customers at ports such as...
Food Inflation Update Feb 2026
Food inflation in February 2026 shows a fragmented pattern, with red meat prices driving overall increases while fresh produce prices decline. Beef rose 7.9% year‑over‑year and lamb/goat 6.8%, whereas vegetables, fruit and eggs fell 1‑2% annually. Monthly data reveal a...
Nitrogen Prices Remain in Focus After Iran Conflict
Anhydrous ammonia prices in Illinois surged to $998 per ton in mid‑March 2026, an 18.4% rise from February levels before the Iran‑U.S. conflict. A regression model linking ammonia prices to corn and natural‑gas markets forecasts the fertilizer will still trade...
Local Gas Prices Crash
Local gasoline prices have plunged sharply, with spot rates falling roughly 20% year‑on‑year. The decline is driven by unusually mild weather that has suppressed driving demand and hints of an emerging recession that is curbing consumer spending. Analysts note that...
Gold & Silver Rebound, While Iran War Is Looking Less Close To Being Over
Gold and silver futures rallied late Tuesday, with gold up $65 to $4,505 per ounce and silver gaining $2.10 to $71.45. Both metals rebounded from earlier intraday lows of $4,340 and $66.16, respectively. The rally came amid renewed geopolitical tension...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures were mixed on Tuesday, with grain contracts climbing while soybeans slipped, reflecting a modest correction from the previous session’s volatility. Market activity remained thin due to a lack of fresh news, especially regarding the ongoing US‑Iran conflict. The White...
The Dollar Is Trading Like a Petrocurrency
Since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began in late February, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, pulling down precious‑metal prices. The dollar’s strength is tied to a parallel surge in crude oil, which jumped from the $60s to around...
Daily Energy Report
China’s crude oil inventories have surged since early 2024, climbing roughly 15% year‑over‑year and reaching levels not seen in a decade. Despite oil prices soaring well above the breakeven cost of the stockpiled barrels, Beijing has drawn little to none...
Farage's Fossil Fuel Donors Profit From Iran War
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has created a sharp "war premium" that is boosting fossil‑fuel equities. Jeremy Hosking’s hedge fund, which manages roughly $3 billion, saw its oil, gas and coal holdings rise by more than $25 million since the war began. Hosking has...
Crude Oil Futures Higher on the Day but Remains Below Target Bullish Bias Levels
Crude oil futures experienced a dramatic swing from $84.37 to $101.67 after President Trump’s Truth Social remarks, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. The contract now sits near $92.68, just below the 50% midpoint of $93.02, keeping sellers in...
Forgive Me Dr. Alhajji, I Was Unfamiliar With Your Game
Dr. Anas Alhajji argues that the U.S. is a major winner from the Hormuz crisis, aligning with the November 2025 National Security Strategy that ties AI dominance to cheap, abundant energy. By disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas...
The Old Narratives Are Dead – Long Live American Energy Dominance
Recent Iranian missile strikes and drone attacks have caused the largest supply disruption in oil market history, removing roughly 8‑10 million barrels per day, including a 2 million‑bpd cut from Saudi Arabia and a 6.7 million‑bpd reduction across the Gulf. This shock has...
Gasoline Prices Around the World
The average global gasoline price is $1.37 per liter as of March 16, 2026. Prices vary widely; wealthier nations generally pay more, while oil‑producing or poorer countries pay less. The United States is an outlier with low prices despite high income. Tax...
Global Oil Data Deck (March 2026)
Commodity Context released its March 2026 Global Oil Data Deck, highlighting the profound impact of the Iran‑War‑driven Hormuz stoppage on oil balances. Confirmed production shut‑ins are set to push the market into its largest deficit on record through March, while...
Silver Daily Call for March 23rd, 2026
Silver plunged to a intraday low of $61.00 on March 23, marking its weakest level since December 12, as risk‑off sentiment swept markets. The metal quickly recovered, climbing back to $70.75 by late morning, erasing much of the early loss. Despite an...
The $826 Billion Shift: Why Metal ETFs Are Reshaping — and Distorting — the Future of Supply
Metal and mining exchange‑traded funds now control roughly $826 billion, with 84% allocated to physical metal ETFs—gold alone accounts for about $577 billion. By contrast, funds that own mining equities represent just over 12% of assets, leaving critical‑mineral ETFs at a modest...
A Compounding Oil Shock: Part III
The article proposes a "Supply Accord" – a coordinated fiscal‑monetary framework to tackle a persistent, geopolitically‑driven oil shock that has moved from price spikes to real supply constraints. It argues that the Fed’s rate tool can protect the inflation anchor...
Tweet From X Worth Reading
Swiss wealth manager Dieter Lüscher warned that gold and silver are about to experience a sharp, engineered dip as large short positions and expiring options pressure prices downward. He says the low could arrive within days, after which a structural...
Urea Under Pressure: History Says Brace for Impact
Urea prices have surged, pushing the urea‑to‑wheat ratio to 1.83, a 97th‑percentile level that compresses farmer margins. Historical analysis of five major spikes since the 1970s shows elevations lasting from six months to nearly five years, depending on whether the...
Glitch Shuts Australia's Biggest Maker Of Vital Fertilizer Input For 2 Months At Worst Possible Time
Australia’s largest ammonia producer, Yara’s Pilbara plant, will be offline for roughly two months after a power outage damaged equipment. The facility accounts for about 5% of the world’s traded ammonia, a key feedstock for urea fertilizer and ammonium nitrate...
Gold: Anatomy of a Selloff
Gold has slumped 18.6% from its January 28, 2026 all‑time high of $5,589 to $4,575, marking a 9.6% weekly drop—the steepest since September 2011—and setting up its worst month since October 2008. The decline is not rooted in a fundamental...
The Hormuz Panic Spiral: How Market Fear and Policy Chaos Are Fueling Energy Shortages
Recent attempts by the IEA and the United States to flood the market with strategic petroleum reserves—totaling roughly 572 million barrels—failed to curb soaring oil prices. Even temporary waivers that allowed the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude did not...
The Market Will Pay in Panic Before It Gets Paid in Stability
Traders now view crude oil as the primary market barometer, with price spikes translating directly into inflation expectations and policy signals. Goldman Sachs outlines a $150‑per‑barrel Brent scenario driven by a domino chain of supply constraints in the Gulf, creating...
Chartfest: 21 March 2026
The Chartfest on 21 March 2026 highlighted a sharp escalation in global oil prices following the Middle‑East conflict, with benchmarks hitting record highs and strategic petroleum reserves under strain. Russia’s oil tax revenues surged as Urals prices peaked, while Qatar’s LNG exports...
Friday Recap (3/20/2026)
Gold prices plunged 10% this week, sitting 20% below the recent January peak of $5,608, while silver slumped 44% from its own high of $121. Both metals remain above their 200‑day moving averages, though they have slipped beneath the 100‑day...
Friday Footnotes: Corn Balance Sheet Blind Spots
The latest corn balance‑sheet analysis highlights a complex market landscape driven by rising energy costs, regional drought, and shifting farmer preferences. Energy‑price‑linked demand for ethanol is strengthening, while drought on the U.S. fringe is curbing planting intentions. Global cash markets...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures markets opened mixed but slipped into negative territory by mid‑session as traders engaged in end‑of‑week profit taking and consolidation. The lack of fresh domestic news left markets vulnerable, while external geopolitical developments dominated headlines. Growing concerns over the US‑Iran...
US Assessment: Iran Could Keep Hormuz Shut for Anywhere From One to Six Months
U.S. defense analysts warn Iran could shut the Strait of Hormuz for one to six months, creating a prolonged maritime bottleneck. The assessment, based on multiple sources, highlights the logistical nightmare of escorting tankers, which may need several destroyers per...
Crude Oil Pulls White Sugar to a 4.75-Month High, but the Surplus That Capped the Last Rally Is Still There
White sugar futures jumped to a 4.75‑month high as crude oil and gasoline prices surged, lifting the energy‑linked ethanol diversion mechanism. The rally is mechanical, not driven by tighter supply‑demand. India’s record sugar output and an approved export programme add...
This Gold Chart
The article showcases a gold DMA (moving‑average) chart that recently slipped below a key technical threshold, prompting a sharp sell‑off. It outlines four competing narratives: reporters link the decline to rising yields and inflation expectations, junior traders cite profit‑taking, advisory...
Brazil’s Record Harvest Pins Arabica While Robusta Finds a Fragile Floor in Tightening Stocks
Brazil's latest forecasts show a record 2026/27 Arabica harvest, driven by unusually benign weather and expanding warehouse stocks. The surge has pushed ICE Arabica inventories to multi‑month highs, eroding the weather‑risk premium and prompting sustained selling pressure. In contrast, Robustas...
Diesel Surge Lifts Spot Rates but Squeezes Fleet Margins
Recent diesel price surges lifted total spot rates for dry‑van, refrigerated and flatbed trucks to their highest levels since late 2022, adding more than 10 cents per mile. When fuel surcharges are removed, linehaul rates slipped 3.5‑8 cents per mile, cutting actual revenue...
The Closer – Mystery Charts, Sector Streaks, Flow of Funds – 3/19/26
The energy sector has logged 49 consecutive days in overbought territory, marking the second‑longest streak on record. Intraday crude oil futures are being pushed by extreme positioning swings and thin liquidity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds data shows...
Daily Energy Report
The Daily Energy Report reframes Hormuz Strait risk by emphasizing crude quality over sheer volume, noting medium‑sour grades now dominate exports while light‑sour streams like Murban remain niche. Asia faces the steepest impact from any Hormuz disruption, prompting tighter crack...
Why Is Gold Melting?
Gold prices plunged to $4,508 per ounce, a sharp drop from the $5,311 close on March 2, even as geopolitical tensions and U.S. budget deficits rise. The decline coincided with Pentagon officials confirming a potential $200 billion supplemental request for the Iran‑related...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat rallied this morning as strength in the energy complex spilled over into grain markets. The rally is tied to heightened uncertainty from the expanding US‑Iran conflict, which has disrupted energy infrastructure and kept investors seeking safe‑haven...
A Dollar Disaster Looms
Gold and silver prices are sliding as concerns mount over the dollar and the broader fiat currency system. The decline mirrors the 2008‑2009 financial crisis, when gold fell from $1,000 to $680 before rallying to a $1,920 peak in 2011....
Asian Stocks Sink After Oil Surges 5% and Energy Fears Rise
Oil prices surged over 5% on Thursday, with Brent breaching $113 per barrel after Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub and threatened the South Pars field shared with Israel. The attacks reignited regional energy‑supply fears, sending European gas up more...
Updated Status of Precious Metals Correction
The Daily Gold released an updated analysis of the ongoing precious‑metal correction, zeroing in on junior gold miner exposure via the GDXJ ETF, the broader gold market, and the silver‑focused SILJ ETF. The note highlights that gold has stalled near...
US Weekly Oil Data
The latest US weekly oil report shows crude inventories rising by 3.2 million barrels, while exports climbed to 4.1 million barrels per day. Imports slipped 0.5 million barrels, marking the lowest level since 2022. Refinery utilization surged to 92%, approaching...
Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?
Oil prices surged from $100 to $110 a barrel after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing plant, while the Fed kept rates steady and Powell delivered a neutral press conference. The S&P 500 dropped 91 points, slipping below its 200‑day...
Why Does Gold Always Crash in a Crisis?
Gold is forming a double‑top pattern despite strong support levels, prompting questions about its safe‑haven reliability. The article argues that gold’s protective role is linked to hedging against currency debasement, not crisis‑driven risk aversion. In market turmoil, liquidity dries up,...