U.S. Within 'Weeks' Of Oil Shortages if War in Iran Continues: Eric Nuttall
Eric Nuttall, senior partner at Ninepoint Partners, warned that the United States could face oil shortages within weeks if the war involving the U.S., Israel and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed. The conflict has already removed more than 11 million barrels per day of global production and shaved over 300 million barrels from strategic inventories. Nuttall predicts a forced demand destruction of roughly 10 million barrels per day as prices soar, echoing an inverted COVID‑era shock. He also flagged long‑term reservoir damage and called for immediate Canadian pipeline investment to mitigate the shortfall.
EU Proposes Tweaks to Carbon Market Reserve in Bid to Avoid Volatility
The European Commission proposed adjusting the EU Emissions Trading System to stop automatically cancelling excess permits, instead keeping them in a special reserve as a price‑volatility buffer. The move follows pressure from member states, notably Italy, as soaring energy costs...
Opinion: A Fertilizer Crunch Is Squeezing U.S. Farmers, and Policymakers Have an Opportunity to Act
U.S. farmers face a tightening fertilizer market as the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck drives up prices for urea, phosphates and sulfur. A USDA survey shows all eight major fertilizer products rose in early March, leaving 20‑25% of growers without full...
US Scrap Trends Outlook: April 2026
US ferrous scrap prices are projected to fall about 3.1% month‑on‑month in April, with the Fastmarkets Trend Indicator slipping to 46.9, below the neutral 50 threshold. Consensus sentiment hit a record low of 47.0, indicating minimal agreement on future direction....
Ivanhoe Cuts Copper Guidance at Kamoa-Kakula
Ivanhoe Mines announced a reduction in its copper production guidance for the Kamoa‑Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The cut follows a severe flood in 2024 that forced a shutdown of underground mining in May 2025. Management outlined...
The Official Fuel Price Increase April 2026
South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announced a comprehensive fuel price adjustment effective 1 April 2026. Brent crude rose to $93.67 per barrel and the rand weakened to 16.64 per USD, driving up basic fuel contributions. Petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin...
Expect Retail Electricity Prices to Rise Further: LBNL/Brattle
A new analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and The Brattle Group finds that investor‑owned utilities requested $18 billion in rate increases last year, with roughly two‑thirds approved, signaling further retail electricity price hikes. From 2019 to 2025, residential electricity rates...
IEA Warns Middle East Oil Disruptions Set to Hit Europe in April
The International Energy Agency warned that oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will intensify in April as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, cutting off more than 12 million barrels per day. The loss is projected to be twice March’s...
War with Iran Could Accelerate Africa’s Oil Revival
The escalating war with Iran is destabilizing Middle‑East oil supplies, prompting global buyers to seek alternatives. African basins—particularly offshore Namibia, Ghana, and Nigeria—are attracting heightened investor attention thanks to favorable geology and lower‑cost drilling technologies. New seismic imaging and digital‑oilfield...
India’s Oil Refiners Are Feeling the Squeeze From the Gulf War
India’s major oil refiners, long buoyed by cheap Russian crude, are now grappling with tighter supply and falling margins as the Gulf war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this key shipping lane has choked the flow of...
The Iran War’s Impacts on Global Fertilizer Markets and Food Production
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has throttled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade and 20% of LNG. Prices for nitrogen‑based fertilizers and phosphate have spiked sharply as export hubs in Qatar and Iran...
Biden’s Farm-And-Food Tax: A Gift To Cronies, But A Blow To Farmers
The Biden administration imposed countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports, effectively creating a hidden tax on U.S. farmers. Because the United States relies on overseas sources for roughly 80 % of its phosphate, the tariffs raise input costs and squeeze farm...
Toray Is Raising Its Prices Following a Surge in Raw Material Costs
Toray Industries announced a temporary surcharge on select products to offset sharply higher crude oil, naphtha and other petrochemical raw material costs driven by escalating Middle East tensions. The price adjustment targets performance chemicals, carbon‑fibre composites, fibres and textiles, with...
Gold’s Haven Role Intact Despite Sharp Price Fall
Gold prices dropped about 12% after the Middle East conflict, but Standard Chartered’s global head of commodities research Suki Cooper says the metal’s safe‑haven status remains solid. The decline is attributed to short‑term liquidity pressure rather than a structural shift,...
Crude Oil Comes Under Renewed Pressure Amid US-Iran Deal Optimism; Upside Risks Remain
Oil prices slipped after President Trump reiterated his willingness to end the Iran conflict without tying it to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials responded with cautious optimism, saying they are ready to end hostilities but demand...
Rising Fertilizer Prices Spark Talk of Increasing Domestic Production
Fertilizer prices have spiked as the Iran war choked off key imports, especially urea, prompting calls for expanded U.S. production. Experts say a world‑scale nitrogen plant would cost $3‑5 billion, and the USDA is weighing a grant program to finance such...
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Hit Tree Nut Industry
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by about 90% since the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict began, halting the flow of U.S. tree‑nut shipments to the Middle East. The region accounts for roughly $1.75 billion, or 20 % of U.S. agricultural exports there,...
Indonesia Bets on Nickel Levy to Break Its China Habit
Indonesia is preparing a progressive export levy on processed nickel products such as nickel pig iron and ferronickel. The tax starts at about 2% when LME prices sit between $15,000‑$16,000 per ton and can rise to roughly 10% as prices...
Matatu Owners Push for Fuel Subsidies
Kenyan Matatu Owners Association urged the government to reinstate fuel subsidies if global price shocks raise local fuel costs. The association warned that higher fuel prices would be passed to commuters, straining household budgets and sector profitability. MOA President Albert...
Water Everywhere but Not a Drop to Drink
The Persian Gulf oil embargo has driven global oil prices to record highs, pushing diesel to roughly $5.50 per gallon and inflating a full tanker truckload to about $50,000. This surge threatens the cost structure of small Alaskan placer‑gold miners,...
Guinea’s Simandou to Become Largest Driver of Seaborne Iron-Ore Supply Growth – WoodMac
Wood Mackenzie projects Guinea’s Simandou mine to become the leading driver of seaborne iron‑ore supply growth, targeting about 16 million tonnes of exports in 2026 with a phased ramp‑up thereafter. After two decades of delay, the project entered execution following Guinea’s...
Odd Lots: Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher (Podcast)
Oil prices have surged since Iran’s conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning. Strategic petroleum reserves and inventory drawdowns have temporarily softened the shock, yet significant volumes of oil remain stranded...
Energy Commission Chief: Brace for Rises in Energy Costs
Malaysia’s Energy Commission warned that electricity generation costs will rise as global fuel markets tighten, especially after the Middle‑East crisis. About 80% of natural‑gas pricing for power is fixed domestically, but the remaining 20% is imported and linked to the...
The Commodities Feed: Oil Falls Below $100 on Optimism over Iran War
Oil prices slipped below $100 per barrel after President Trump signaled a possible end to the Iran conflict, prompting Brent and WTI to trade under the psychological $100 mark. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose 10.3 million barrels, while the API data...
Oil Slides 4% to Below $100/Bbl as Middle East Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge
Oil prices plunged on Wednesday, with Brent June futures slipping 4.35% to $99.45 per barrel and U.S. WTI falling 3.99% to $97.34. The decline came despite signals that the U.S.-Iran conflict could be winding down, as investors reacted to lingering...
Should You Book Holiday Flights Now Considering Jet Fuel Price Spikes?
Global jet‑fuel prices have surged, with the International Air Transport Association reporting an average of $195.19 per barrel and the U.S. Argus index exceeding $4.60 per gallon—more than double pre‑conflict levels. The spike is forcing airlines to trim capacity, with...
Malaysia’s Food Prices May Spike 50% Amid Fuel Surge
Malaysia’s food prices could surge as much as 50% after an energy shock tied to the Iran war drives fuel costs higher. Traders report raw ingredient prices already up 20‑30% before the fuel jump, forcing hawkers and restaurants to consider...
India Pulls Back Jet Fuel Price Hike; Commercial LPG Prices up Around ₹200 as Oil Scales $105
Indian Oil Corp (IOCL) rolled back an initially announced 100% hike in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) for domestic airlines, setting the price at ₹1,04,927 per kilolitre (≈ $1,260), about an 8.5% rise from March. The ministry limited the increase to a...
Pacific Islands Energy Crisis: One Country Faces Fuel Import Bills Three Times Its Healthcare Budget
The war in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, threatening diesel‑dependent Pacific economies. Fiji could see its imported fuel bill jump $670 million by 2025—about three times its annual healthcare budget—while Vanuatu faces a potential $120 million...
Electricity for Households and Town Gas in Singapore to Increase Between 1 April to 30 June 2026
Singapore’s Energy Market Authority will raise household electricity tariffs by 2.1% to S$0.56 /kWh (about $0.41) and the overall tariff by 2.0% to S$0.52 /kWh (≈$0.38) from 1 April to 30 June 2026. The average monthly bill for a four‑room HDB flat rises S$1.80 (≈$1.33)...
The Petrochemicals Shock That Is Already Rippling Through Plastics
The war in Iran is throttling global oil supplies, which also serve as the primary feedstock for petrochemicals. This disruption has sent polyethylene prices soaring, with some Asian producers announcing force majeure and cutting output. Analysts warn that a significant...
Storage Vital to Meeting Winter Demand Across East Coast Gas Market in Q3 2026
Australia’s east‑coast gas market is projected to face tight supply conditions during the winter months of Q3 2026, according to the ACCC’s interim gas inquiry report. The balance could swing between a 12 PJ shortfall and a 3 PJ surplus, largely dependent on...
Food Exports Poised to Drop by over 7%
Thai food exports are projected to fall 7.3% year‑on‑year to 1.4 trillion baht (about $39 billion), potentially hitting a five‑year low. The first quarter is expected to plunge 11.5% to 306 billion baht ($8.6 billion) as Middle‑East conflicts disrupt Gulf shipments and re‑exports via...
Crude Futures Close Memorable March in Decline
Crude oil futures ended March with a modest daily decline but posted robust monthly gains, driven by heightened geopolitical tension. The ongoing war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have constrained supply and...
Oil Prices, Mar. 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, global crude oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude closing near $85 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $80. The rise reflected OPEC+’s decision to extend voluntary output cuts and a modest draw...
Chile’s Copper Production Falls to Nine-Year Low, Highlighting Global Supply Pressures
Chile reported its lowest monthly copper output in almost nine years, producing 378,554 metric tons in February 2026 – an 8.5% decline from January and 4.8% lower than a year earlier. The drop marks the smallest monthly figure since a...
Market Watch: May Nymex Contract Inches Lower
May natural‑gas futures slipped slightly, closing at $2.884 per million British thermal units after peaking at $2.977 on Tuesday. Analysts attribute the dip to record U.S. production and a seasonal warming trend. Demand estimates show residential and commercial consumption at...
Comparative Fuels, Mar. 31, 2026
Energy Intelligence’s March 31 roundup highlights a resurgence of LNG development, with Polar LNG unveiling a near‑shore liquefaction plant on Alaska’s North Slope—an idea dismissed in 2018. Egypt is accelerating upstream gas projects to relieve a regional supply crunch, while...
Sorghum Acres at Least Partially Impacted by Drought in Plains
USDA forecasts sorghum planting at 6.12 million acres for 2026, an 8 % decline from 2025. The drop reflects drought impacts in the Plains, with Kansas acreage cut by 10 % and Texas also seeing reductions. Conversely, South Dakota’s sorghum area jumps 53 %...
Northeast US Diesel Exports Surge to Europe
New York Harbor briefly became a net diesel exporter as traders shifted ultra‑low sulfur diesel (ULSD) shipments to Europe. A sharp rise in northwest European jet fuel prices created a price arbitrage window, flipping the usual discount relationship between European...
Hay Harvested Area Likely to Increase in 2026
The USDA projects 50.113 million acres of hay will be harvested in 2026, a 1% increase over 2025, suggesting a modest boost in national supply. State‑level data reveal mixed trends: Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin expand acreage, while Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska...
Gold Surges As Reports Indicate Trump Plans To End The Gulf War
Gold surged 2.6% on Tuesday, pushing COMEX June futures to $4,676.40 an ounce, while silver jumped 6.3% to $75.30. The rally followed Wall Street Journal reports that President Donald Trump is considering a diplomatic path to end the Gulf conflict...
Fuel Price Volatility Continues as Diesel and Gasoline Averages Tick Upward
U.S. on‑highway diesel rose 3 cents to $5.401 per gallon and gasoline increased 3 cents to $3.990, according to the EIA’s March 31 report. The West Coast saw the steepest diesel jump, up 29 cents, while the Gulf Coast posted modest declines. AAA’s independent...
‘Real Pain’ to Set In: Businesses Brace for Impact as EMA Warns of Potentially Sharper Rise in Power Tariffs
Singapore’s Energy Market Authority warned that electricity and town‑gas tariffs will likely rise sharper in coming quarters as global energy costs surge amid the Gulf conflict. SP Group lifted household electricity rates by 2.1% – an increase of S$0.0056/kWh (≈ $0.0041/kWh)...
New Episode: What’s Next for Australia’s Iron Ore Sector?
GlobalData projects Australia’s iron ore output to reach about 1.1 billion tonnes by 2035, signalling a shift from rapid expansion to asset replacement. Mature Pilbara mines, tighter margins and decarbonisation pressures are driving a focus on higher‑grade ore and new processing...
New Episode: What’s Next for Australia’s Iron Ore Sector?
Australia’s iron‑ore industry, long the engine of global steel supply, is moving from rapid expansion to a constrained, replacement‑focused phase. GlobalData projects output modestly climbing to about 1.1 billion tonnes by 2035, driven more by asset renewal than new capacity. Ageing...
New Episode: What’s Next for Australia’s Iron Ore Sector?
GlobalData’s 2035 outlook predicts Australia’s iron‑ore output will climb modestly to about 1.1 billion tonnes, signaling a shift from rapid expansion to asset replacement. Aging Pilbara mines and tighter margins are prompting producers to focus on higher‑grade ore as steelmakers pursue...
Middle East Conflict Lifting PPA Valuations, Says Pexapark
Swiss analytics firm Pexapark reports that recent LNG strikes in the Middle East are pushing up long‑term power purchase agreement (PPA) valuations across Europe. The conflict creates a structural supply‑side risk that tightens medium‑term fundamentals, especially in markets with limited...
Extended Proposal to Discontinue Certain Welded, Seamless Tube and Pipe Prices
Fastmarkets has extended its proposal to discontinue eight price assessments for welded and seamless tube and pipe products in Europe and India. The move follows a period of subdued market activity and limited data availability, prompting the firm to retire...
India Cuts Sugar Allocation for April Amid Low Demand, 15.6 Million Tonnes Released in 7 Months
The Indian government allocated 23 lakh tonnes of sugar for April 2026, a slight reduction from 23.5 lakh tonnes a year earlier and below the 25 lakh tonnes set in April 2024. Demand for the 2025‑26 season’s first seven months is projected at...