PBOC Cuts FX Risk Reserve Ratio to 0%, Slowing Yuan Appreciation
China's PBOC will cut the foreign‑exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026. The move aims to ease hedging costs, curb excessive yuan appreciation, and signal a shift from emergency policy tools. By removing the penalty, the central bank hopes to balance export competitiveness and market stability. The change also reduces operational costs for importers and offers a softer alternative to direct intervention.
From Fed Failures to Inflation and Stablecoins: America’s Trust Is Cracking
The new book *Avoid Fiscal & Economic Disaster with Ethics, Economics, and Excellence* by former Fed official Bill Bergman and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Larry Feltes warns that America’s greatest vulnerability is a collapsing trust in its institutions. They...
Thailand Interest Rate Cut
The Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark rate to 1.0 % on February 25, 2026, a 25‑basis‑point reduction from 1.25 % and the lowest level since October 2022. The move was unexpected, coming after a similar cut in December and reflecting a revised outlook...
Commerzbank Warned ECB Officials Intervention Is Necessary to Cultivate Euro-Stablecoins
Commerzbank has cautioned that the European Central Bank must step in to nurture a viable euro‑stablecoin ecosystem. The bank argues that without clear regulatory guidance, market participants will remain hesitant, slowing adoption of digital euros. It also stresses the need...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – February 25th, 2026
EUR/USD has moved into positive territory this week, prompting Elliott Wave analysts to identify a decisive level that could confirm a transition from bearish to bullish dominance. The analysis highlights a key resistance break that may signal the bears relinquishing...
Structural Change—Canada at a Crossroads
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that Canada faces deep structural shifts as U.S. protectionism, rapid AI adoption, and demographic aging reshape the economy. He noted the central bank kept its policy rate at 2¼ % while highlighting heightened uncertainty around...
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
The article reviews evidence that central banks which pushed policy rates slightly below zero—most notably in the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Japan—generated additional economic stimulus without triggering major disruptions. Empirical observations show that corporate deposit and wholesale funding...
PBO’s Migration Analysis Doesn’t Add Up
The Australian newspaper cited the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) budget tool to challenge One Nation’s proposal to cap visas at 130,000 annually and achieve net‑zero immigration. The PBO‑based analysis estimates a $100 billion loss in federal revenue over the next decade,...
Dollar May yet Benefit From Further US-Iran Geopolitical Escalation - BofA
Bank of America sees the U.S. dollar gaining strength if geopolitical tensions with Iran intensify. Rising odds—now 69%—of a U.S. military strike by June could push oil prices higher while global equities weaken, a combination that traditionally benefits the greenback....
The Sixth Jamaican 25-Basis Point Central Bank Interest Rate Cut Since August 2024
The Bank of Jamaica cut its policy rate to 5.50% from 5.75%, its sixth 25‑basis‑point reduction since August 2024 and the first cut in nine months. The move was driven by a milder‑than‑expected inflation impact from Hurricane Melissa, improved agricultural supply,...
Australians Are Stuck in a Low Income Growth Trap
The OECD’s latest cross‑country data for Q3 2025 shows Australia posting the smallest rise in real per‑capita household disposable income among major English‑speaking economies over the past ten years. While other nations such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada...
Iran Polymarket & Fed Odds
Polymarket’s prediction market shows a noticeable rise in the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran, signaling heightened geopolitical risk. At the same time, gold remains unusually flat, showing little enthusiasm despite the tension, while oil prices are edging higher....
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 23rd-27th February 2026
The week ahead centers on Nvidia’s February 25 earnings, where analysts expect revenue to surpass $65 billion and margins to climb above 74 percent, reinforcing its AI leadership. Australian CPI data will test the Reserve Bank’s willingness to raise rates again after...
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's emergency authority to impose broad tariffs, prompting a modest sell‑off in the dollar despite its recent resilience. Dollar Index fell to just above 97.5, yet key technical levels held, while the euro recovered...
Interview with Andrew Maguire of Kinesis
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
Weekend Reading and MB Media Appearances
The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...
Digital Euros and Liquidity Backstops Won’t Dent Dollar Dominance, Says Fed’s Miran
European policymakers are increasingly exploring euro‑denominated stablecoins as a tool to counterbalance the U.S. dollar’s global reach. Federal Reserve official Stephen Miran, however, argues that the dollar’s dominance will persist despite these digital euro initiatives. He points to the depth...
Aussie Flash PMI Cools, RBA Still Hot
Australia’s flash PMI for February showed a deceleration, with output and new orders slipping across manufacturing and services after a vigorous start to the year. Despite the slowdown, business sentiment stayed upbeat, and employment rose sharply as firms added staff...
Administered Price Inflation Continues to Run Wild
Government and regulatory decisions have driven administered prices—electricity, water, gas, council rates and public transport fares—up 7.55% in the last calendar year. This rise is roughly double the overall CPI inflation rate. Because administered prices are largely insulated from monetary...
A Brief Illustrated History of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet: 1914-2026
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has undergone dramatic swings since its 1914 inception, expanding modestly for decades before exploding after the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2022 the sheet grew from roughly $0.9 trillion to over $9 trillion, driven by large‑scale...
Job Creation Soft
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that January 2026 saw a modest net increase of 18,000 jobs, with full‑time employment rising by 50,500 and part‑time employment falling by 32,700. Total employment reached 14,703,800 and monthly hours worked climbed to 2,013 million, while...
Banker Calls for Peak Banker
National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine warned that Australia has hit "peak Australia," signalling that without a productivity boost the economy will stagnate. Real wages fell for the first time in two years, underscoring the pressure on living standards. Irvine...
Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – February 18th, 2026
USDCAD is climbing as Canada’s latest inflation data came in below expectations, reviving expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts. The softer CPI reading narrows the interest‑rate gap with the United States, making the U.S. dollar more attractive and...
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – February 18th, 2026
USD/JPY edged higher this week as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalization. The pair’s modest rise reflects expectations of incremental BOJ rate hikes and a narrowing US‑Japan interest‑rate gap. An Elliott Wave update highlights a key resistance...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – February 18th, 2026
The EUR/USD pair slipped modestly this week as markets anticipate Friday's core PCE inflation report. Traders are closely watching the hourly chart, which now displays a nascent corrective Elliott Wave formation. The update suggests the pair could test near‑term support...
Baby Boomer Spending Helps Drive up Inflation
Australia’s Reserve Bank highlighted an unexpected surge in private demand, driven largely by heightened household spending from the baby‑boomer cohort. The increase in consumer‑durable price growth reinforced this trend, prompting the RBA to raise the official cash rate by 0.25%....
New Zealand’s Housing Crash Restores Affordability
New Zealand’s housing market has entered a sharp correction, with the REINZ house‑price index falling 0.6% month‑on‑month and 16.2% from its early‑2022 peak, equating to a 30% real‑terms loss since 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped to pre‑pandemic levels after the...
The Fed's New Target: Part II
In Part II, the podcast examines how the ongoing "Great Compression" of money‑market rates is pushing the Federal Reserve to replace its traditional overnight Fed Funds target with a new benchmark. It explains that overnight Fed Funds volume has collapsed...
Unpacking the Latest Finance News From China: Key Trends and Market Insights
China’s latest five‑year plan emphasizes a shift from property‑driven growth to technology, targeting near‑5 % GDP expansion in 2026 and projecting tech to account for 18.3 % of output by 2026. The renminbi has appreciated past the 7.0 per dollar mark, indicating reduced central‑bank...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – February 16th, 2026
USDJPY fell 450 pips last week after Japan’s finance minister Sanae Takaichi signaled stricter fiscal discipline. The drop reflects bearish momentum in the pair, prompting Elliott Wave analysts to pinpoint a critical support level that must be broken for bears...
Trade Tips From Washington DC
Ashraf Laidi notes recent Trump administration comments that imply a deliberately weaker US dollar ahead of today’s non‑farm payroll (NFP) release. He suggests the labor data could fall far short of the 68,000 consensus, echoing a pattern of "benign neglect"...
The Signal Is Finally Here
Forex analyst Ashraf Laidi unveiled a long‑awaited EUR/GBP chart, showing the pair’s daily price breaking out of a three‑month descending channel while the weekly chart preserved an 11‑month trendline support and is now bouncing higher. He suggests the breakout could...
Typical Trading Errors
Retail traders often sacrifice profits by exiting positions too early, driven by a desire for constant action rather than market fundamentals. Ashraf Laidi illustrates this with the USDJPY reaction to the February NFP surprise, where the pair swung more than...
Bulgarian Central Bank Deputy Governor Appointed Prime Minister
President Iliana Iotova appointed suspended Bulgarian National Bank deputy governor Andrey Gurov as interim prime minister, invoking a constitutional rule that limits caretaker‑PM candidates to ten senior officials. Gurov’s selection follows an anti‑corruption finding that barred him from his central‑bank...
Central Bank Rate Cuts of 100 Basis Points in Egypt and 50 BPS in Russia
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
The EU’s Digital Euro Is Just a Whisker Away From Becoming a Legal Reality
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to endorse two amendments to the ECB’s annual report, labeling the digital euro “essential” for monetary sovereignty, payment‑system resilience and universal acceptance. The first amendment passed with 438 votes, the second with 420, signalling political...
China Mulls Blowing Aussie Property Into Space
Prominent Chinese economists Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong have called for easing capital controls, arguing that the current weakening U.S. dollar and a strengthening yuan present a rare opportunity to increase the currency’s value abroad. They describe 2023 and 2024...
Pilbara Killer Rises
The MacroBusiness note observes that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) halted its decline amid political headlines, while the Australian dollar stayed firm despite broader risk aversion. Beijing is expected to intervene to limit further yuan gains, and the resilience of...
“Liberation Day” Interpreted Through the Lens of the Benchmark Revision
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
Infographics: Key Rates & Spreads In the Modern Repo Market
The episode breaks down the modern repo market by illustrating how overnight rates and dealer spreads vary across different repo segments—triparty, GCF, DVP, and NCCBR. It explains that dealers profit by maintaining a positive spread between the cost of borrowing...
The Digital Yuan and the New Geography of Monetary Power
The episode examines how China’s digital yuan (e‑yuan) reshapes the internationalization of the renminbi by focusing on usage rather than ownership. It explains that traditional barriers were convertibility and capital controls, which limited the ability to sell or move RMB...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – February 9th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave analysis notes that EUR/USD slipped during the first week of February 2026, testing the 1.1800 support zone. While the pair remains above this level, bullish sentiment persists, suggesting the wave count may still be in an...
Markets Say “Wrong Kevin”, Xiaomi & Ford Could Partner Up
Asian equity markets slumped after President‑Trump‑appointed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh signaled hawkish policy, prompting a broad risk‑off that also lifted the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the renminbi hit a 52‑week high at 6.94 per dollar even as commodity futures and semiconductor...
Plumbing Notes: A Global Compression
In this brief update, the host explains how the Federal Reserve’s recent liquidity injections have compressed the SOFR‑FF basis, pushing overnight SOFR rates to just a few basis points below the interest on reserve balances (IORB). Major banks, led by...
The Dollar Consolidates While Japan Steps Up Its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...