A Modern Governor
Hyun Song Shin, a leading BIS economist, has been appointed governor of the Bank of Korea. The selection underscores a shift away from the traditional academic‑practitioner debate toward a demand for flexible, analysis‑driven leadership. Shin’s opening remarks stress intellectual rigor as the engine of central‑bank independence. Observers see his tenure as a test of how nuanced policy framing can navigate Korea’s inflation and growth challenges.
Understanding the Market Slippage Trap
Corporate treasurers often rely on rolling FX forwards, assuming each renewal fully neutralises exposure, but each roll creates market slippage that erodes margins. Bloomberg’s Global Head of Buyside Treasury, Chintan Shah, warns this hidden cost can turn a prudent hedge...
100 Years of Hilton Young Commission
The 1926 Hilton Young Commission, chaired by Edward Hilton Young, examined India’s currency and exchange‑rate challenges and famously advocated for a central bank. Its recommendations directly led to the Reserve Bank of India Act of 1934 and the RBI’s establishment in...
USD Index, Crude Oil, and Stocks: The Savvy Trader’s Personal Outlook on Market Trends and Key Levels
The trader notes the USD Index is holding above an up‑sloping trend line with a key 100 resistance level, while it failed to rally alongside crude oil. Crude markets have shifted focus to WTI, showing strong backwardation and rising back‑month...
What Trump Doesn’t Want You to Know About the U.S Dollar Collapse
Steve Keen’s latest post warns that a looming U.S. dollar collapse is being obscured by political narratives, especially President Trump’s aggressive stance toward Iran. He argues that the war’s energy backdrop—rising oil prices and supply disruptions—undermines confidence in the greenback....
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – April 6th, 2026
EUR/USD edged up last week but failed to break the psychologically important 1.1500 level. The euro’s modest gain came despite the European Central Bank signaling possible interest‑rate hikes in upcoming meetings. Elliott Wave analysts note that the pair’s direction depends...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – April 6th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave analysis notes that USD/JPY lingered around the 160.00 level last week, buoyed by safe‑haven demand as the Iran‑U.S. conflict escalates. While the pair struggled to break higher, the wave count points to a potential move toward...
Iran Has a Shocking Money Strategy up Its Sleeve
The long‑standing petrodollar system compels oil sales in U.S. dollars, creating massive dollar reserves that finance U.S. Treasury debt. Iran has hinted it could restrict oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz unless the transactions avoid the dollar. Such a...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – April 6th, 2026
USDCAD advanced 52 pips last week as investors turned to the U.S. dollar for safety amid the escalating war in Iran. The pair is now testing the 1.40 resistance zone, a level that has historically capped upside moves. Elliott Wave...
The Daily Feather — Ferreting on National Ferret Day
National Ferret Day, observed each April 2, celebrates the quirky "weasel war dance" of domestic ferrets and highlights a historic mascot that traces back to the 15th century. The Daily Feather’s post blends light‑hearted cultural trivia with a visual collage of macro‑economic...
Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many
President Trump’s address failed to lift market optimism, leaving risk appetite severely compressed ahead of a long holiday weekend. The US dollar surged, pushing the yen toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark while the euro stalled near $1.15 and sterling slipped below...
NZDUSD Backs Off After 200 Hour Is Approached and Sellers Lean
The NZD/USD pair surged but stalled at key technical levels, failing to sustain a break above the 38.2% retracement around 0.57714 and the 200‑hour moving average at 0.57808. After peaking at 0.57764, price reversed and is now testing the 100‑hour...
Colombian Central Bank Interest Rate Hike
On April 1, 2026, the Central Bank of Colombia voted 4‑2‑1 to raise its benchmark rate by a full percentage point to 11.25%, after a similar move in February. Inflation has fallen sharply from 18.3% in March 2023 to 4.8% in mid‑2025, yet...
Could Fed Liquidity Plunge By Half?
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
FX Alert : Peace Whispers Ignite a Full Blown Risk On Stampede
The FX market is pricing an end to the Middle‑East war before any formal peace, igniting a short‑squeeze‑driven risk‑on rally. Dollar weakness is accelerating as safe‑haven demand fades and Fed expectations turn dovish. Oil remains above $100 a barrel, with...
RBA Caught in ‘Catch-22’ on Interest Rates
Australian consumer sentiment has collapsed to a 53‑year low, according to the ANZ‑Roy Morgan weekly confidence index. All sub‑indices, including current and future household finances, fell to their weakest levels since the series began in 1985. The decline follows two...
USDCAD Moved Above a Swing Area and Increases the Bullish Bias.
The USDCAD pair has broken back above the 1.3924‑1.3937 swing zone, shifting the bias firmly bullish. Buyers are anchored by a solid 61.8% retracement floor at 1.3888 and have kept the price above the 200‑bar moving average. Technical momentum points...
Month-End Flows Point to Dollar Buying Into the Fix - BofA
Bank of America’s month‑end fixing model shows the U.S. dollar as the clear beneficiary as March and Q1 close, forecasting material inflows of about one standard deviation into USD assets. The model also predicts modest euro inflows and outflows from...
Market Outlook for the Week of 30th March - 3rd April
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
How Month-End Rebalancing Moves the Forex Market
At month‑end, pension funds, insurers and asset managers rebalance portfolios, triggering large foreign‑exchange trades. These flows, often billions of dollars, concentrate around the London 4 p.m. fix and can move major pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. When U.S. equities...
Dispatch€s From Frankfurt - ECB: Graduated Response
The European Central Bank’s annual Frankfurt conference highlighted a sober mood as policymakers grapple with the lingering energy‑price shock and geopolitical risks from the war in the Middle East. President Christine Lagarde’s keynote outlined a "graduated response" strategy, emphasizing scenario‑based...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review): 30th March – 3rd April 2026
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – March 30th, 2026
The USDCAD pair surged sharply last week as investors fled to the U.S. dollar, pushing the pair toward the 1.4000 psychological barrier. Meanwhile, traditional safe‑haven assets such as gold, equities and cryptocurrencies weakened, reflecting a broad risk‑off mood. The latest...
The Thai Baht Remains Under Pressure
Thailand’s baht is under renewed pressure as rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar converge. Tensions in the Middle East keep crude near $100‑$120 per barrel, inflating Thailand’s energy import bill and weakening the currency. Meanwhile, the two‑year U.S....
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9089 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed While Bonds and Stocks Weaken
The U.S. dollar is trading in a narrow range against G10 currencies while equities and bonds are under pressure. A potential escalation in the Middle East, highlighted by Tehran’s rejection of a U.S. cease‑fire proposal, is dampening risk appetite. Oil...
China’s $1.2 Trillion Export Surplus Ghost Economy
China’s annual trade surplus now exceeds $1.2 trillion, yet official foreign‑exchange reserves remain around $3 trillion. Export firms split operations between domestic manufacturers and offshore entities in Hong Kong, Singapore or the UAE, invoicing only production costs locally while retaining full profits abroad...
Evil RBA Snuffs Out Economy
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has accelerated its tightening cycle, pushing the cash rate to 4.35% as inflation remains above target. The aggressive stance has sharply increased borrowing costs for households and businesses, curbing consumption and investment. Critics argue...
Fed's Miran, Trump's Puppet at the Bank, Calls for Rate Cuts, Like He Always Does
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
Singapore’s Central Bank Pilots XRP Ledger for Cross-Border Trade
Singapore’s Monetary Authority has invited Ripple to join its Borderless, Liquid, Open, Online, Multicurrency initiative, using the XRP Ledger and Ripple’s USD‑linked stablecoin (RLUSD) to settle cross‑border trade. The pilot automates payment release the moment a shipment is verified, eliminating...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: From Powell To Warsh
The webcast examines Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and his likely dovish stance under presidential pressure. It models three possible durations of the Iran conflict to gauge their impact on monetary policy under Warsh...
MoonX Forex Trading: EUR/USD, Gold, Silver with X1000 Leverage
MoonX, a Saint Lucia‑registered derivatives exchange, has broadened its offering to include six major Forex pairs and spot gold and silver, all with up to 1000 × leverage. The new assets sit alongside the platform’s existing 300+ cryptocurrency futures, allowing traders to...
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – March 25th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave analysis shows USD/JPY recovered from an early‑week decline, returning to its opening level. Traders are now watching whether the pair can break the psychological 160.00 yen barrier. The analysis suggests bullish momentum may resume if wave...
What Now for the Australian Dollar?
The Australian dollar remains pinned around US$0.70 as the US Dollar Index eases amid peace‑rumor optimism. Safe‑haven demand for the Japanese yen is pressuring regional currencies, leaving the AUD in a narrow range. Commodity markets are volatile: gold prices have...
The Dollar Is Trading Like a Petrocurrency
Since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began in late February, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, pulling down precious‑metal prices. The dollar’s strength is tied to a parallel surge in crude oil, which jumped from the $60s to around...
SNB Chairman: We Are Prepared to Introduce Negative Rates but the Hurdle Is High
Swiss National Bank Chairman announced that the central bank is prepared to push policy rates into negative territory, but acknowledges a high hurdle before such a move. He emphasized that while the policy rate remains the primary tool, foreign‑exchange intervention...
Meet Qivalis: The Bank-Led Effort to Internationalise the Euro with Stablecoins
European banks have formed a consortium called Qivalis to issue a euro‑denominated stablecoin, marking the first large‑scale, bank‑led effort to internationalise the euro in digital form. The project receives backing from the European Central Bank’s regulatory sandbox, signaling official support...
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
The IMF’s COFER database shows the U.S. dollar still commands roughly 60% of global foreign‑exchange reserves, keeping its status as the premier reserve currency. Over the past decade the euro and Chinese yuan have inched upward, while the British pound...
The FX Market Does Not Trade the Day It Trades the Clock
The piece contends that foreign‑exchange trading occurs in distinct liquidity pockets rather than a steady stream. Critical windows are the Tokyo 8:55 AM fix, the 7:00 AM London open, the 4:00 PM London WMR fix, and month‑end balance‑sheet rebalancing, each offering a unique...
FX Alert: When Everything Sells at Once, Buy the Dollar ?
The market is experiencing a broad liquidity withdrawal, turning the U.S. dollar into the primary exit asset as equities, bonds and precious metals sell simultaneously. Elevated oil prices are driving risk premia across asset classes, eclipsing central‑bank influence and tightening...
Book Bits: 21 March 2026
The Capital Spectator’s Book Bits (21 March 2026) spotlights two new titles. Barry Eichengreen’s *Money Beyond Borders* examines the U.S. dollar’s more‑than‑10 % slide against major currencies since early 2025 and evaluates scenarios that could dethrone it, emphasizing domestic policy missteps. Gary A. Hoover’s...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 23rd, 2026
EURUSD surged over 150 pips after the European Central Bank signaled readiness to resume rate‑hike discussions as early as April, reflecting persistent inflation pressures. The ECB’s hawkish pivot quickly lifted the euro against the dollar, underscoring the power of central‑bank...
Next Week’s Menu: March 21-27, 2026
The week of March 21‑27, 2026 features a sparse calendar of central‑bank meetings but a flurry of high‑profile speeches from Fed Chair Powell, BoE’s Taylor and Greene, and several ECB officials, fueling speculation of rate hikes later in the year. A slate...
USDCAD Sellers Had Their Shot. They Missed. What Now Technically for the USDCAD Traders?
USDCAD opened near the month’s high of 1.3752 but could not sustain a breakout above the recent peak of 1.37476, sending the pair back toward the 100‑hour moving average at 1.37086. Sellers briefly pushed the price below this level to...
A Seventh Central Bank Interest Rate Cut in Russia
On March 20 2026 the Central Bank of Russia trimmed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 15.0%, the seventh reduction since the October 2024 peak of 21%. The cumulative easing amounts to six percentage points, the deepest policy shift in over two...
Dollar Mixed, Equities Down, Bond Yields Higher, and Mood Remains Fearful
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs. Long Term
Peter Zeihan argues the U.S. dollar is set for a multi‑decade rise, driven by unrivaled naval power, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and a looming manufacturing expansion. In the near term, however, policy choices—tight immigration, high tariffs, regulatory...
New Zealand Growth Undershoots as Domestic Demand Softens
New Zealand’s fourth‑quarter GDP expanded only 0.2% quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.4% consensus, while annual growth held at 1.3% year‑on‑year, below the 1.7% forecast. Both production‑based (0.2% q/q) and expenditure‑based (0.1% q/q) measures signalled a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. The weaker...