RBA to Hike Into Fuelpocaplypse
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its cash rate as inflation accelerates. In the March quarter the consumer price index rose 1.4% year‑over‑year, matching forecasts, while headline inflation jumped from 2.1% in mid‑2025 to 3.6% in December and now 4.1% in early 2026. The surge stems from the phase‑out of energy discounts, a Gulf‑region crisis and higher motor‑fuel prices. Westpac analysts warn the upward pressure will likely force tighter monetary policy.
Comments on FOMC Statement and Press Conference
The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal‑funds target range unchanged at 3.5 %‑3.75 %, with only Governor Miran dissenting in favor of a 25‑basis‑point cut. Three regional presidents—Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Dallas’s Lorie Logan and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari—opposed adding an easing bias...
Inside the Fed's Balance Sheet
A new video and podcast interview with finance professor Darrell Duffie examines the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Duffie draws on his recent paper to explain how the Fed’s roughly $8 trillion asset base shapes the U.S. payments system and monetary policy....
FOMC Preview
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at the 3.5‑3.75% target range as the Middle‑East conflict drags on, keeping oil prices about 7% higher than in March. Inflation forecasts have been nudged upward while economic activity...
Powell’s Last Meeting
Jerome Powell is set to leave the Federal Reserve after his term ends May 15, with the FOMC likely holding rates at 3.50‑3.75%. The article argues that despite political criticism of “tight” policy, the Fed under Powell pursued the easiest monetary...
Norwegian 1000-Krone Banknote: Remains as Legal Tender, but Banks Can No Longer Order New
Norway’s central bank announced that the 1000‑krone note, worth roughly $100, will stay legal tender but banks can no longer order fresh copies. Existing notes will gradually disappear as they are withdrawn from circulation. Norges Bank emphasized cash’s role as...
What Blockchain Does the Digital Yuan Use?
China’s digital yuan runs on a purpose‑built, permissioned blockchain rather than a public network like Bitcoin. The system prioritizes transaction speed, scalability and central‑bank oversight, allowing near‑instant retail payments while preserving user privacy. By distributing the ledger across numerous nodes...
The Month That It Was : April 2026
The Macro Butler released its April 2026 edition of “The Month That It Was,” a macro‑focused podcast recap of the month’s economic headlines. The episode is available to paid Substack subscribers and can also be streamed on YouTube for those with...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – April 29th, 2026
EWM Interactive released an Elliott Wave update for EURUSD on April 29, 2026, highlighting a critical price level to watch ahead of the day’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest‑rate decision. The analysis, accessible only to paying subscribers, suggests that...
Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – April 29th, 2026
USDCAD broke into positive territory on April 29, marking its first green session in four weeks. The move was sparked by bearish pressure fading near a key support level around 1.3600. Analysts using Elliott Wave theory now project the pair...
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – April 29th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave update examines how high the USD/JPY pair could climb as it remains in green territory for a second consecutive week. Analysts apply a bullish impulse wave count that projects the pair toward the mid‑155.00 level. Technical...
This Is How You’d Be Trading the Fed If You Sat on Goldman’s Desk
Goldman’s trading desk views the upcoming FOMC as a backdrop, not a market mover, with the Fed expected to hold rates amid near‑unanimous support. The real catalyst, according to the desk, is oil‑related geopolitical risk, which continues to shape inflation...
Powell's Swan Song
Jerome Powell will deliver his final Federal Reserve press conference tomorrow before the Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as his successor. Powell is expected to argue that the Fed will keep rates steady because inflation risks have risen, even as unemployment...
In Rare 6-3 Vote, BOJ Delays Interest Rate Hike Again
The Bank of Japan’s policy board voted 6‑3 to postpone a rate hike to 1%, marking a rare split decision. BOJ now projects 2024 GDP growth at just 0.5%, half of its January outlook, as the Iran‑Ukraine conflict drags on....
Chile Holds Rates but Iran War Oil Risk Echoes Across Global Central Banks
Chile's central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.50% for a third straight meeting, a decision that was broadly expected. More notable was the bank’s explicit warning that the Iran‑Israel conflict is worsening beyond its March baseline, raising the...
THE FED IS ALREADY PRINTING: $170B in Balance Sheet Expansion in 2026, the $2.4T Deficit, the Collapse of Foreign Demand,...
The Federal Reserve has quietly expanded its balance sheet by $170 billion year‑to‑date, a $510 billion annualized run‑rate representing more than 7.5% growth. This comes as the U.S. Treasury faces a $2.4 trillion budget deficit that will swell with additional war, defense, grid...
The Financial Crisis That Didn’t Happen
The Federal Reserve kept policy rates at 0% for roughly eight to nine years after the 2008 crisis, using quantitative easing to stabilize banks. Despite widespread fears, this ultra‑low‑rate environment did not spark a new financial crisis or hyperinflation. Inflation...
Yen Firms As BOJ Hawkish Tilt Forces FX To Reprice
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.75% but signaled a hawkish shift by raising inflation forecasts to 2.8% and cutting growth outlook to 0.5%. Internal dissent grew, with three board members now favoring a rate hike versus...
The Global Week Ahead
The week of April 26‑May 3 2026 will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada all convene on monetary policy, with market consensus pointing to a pause on rate changes. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts...
The Good. The Bad. The Numbers.
Canada’s new fiscal update shows a record post‑pandemic deficit of C$78.3 bn (≈US$57 bn) despite a strong economic outlook. Oil price surges are projected to boost federal revenues by C$5‑10 bn (≈US$3.5‑7.3 bn) annually, potentially narrowing the shortfall. However, costly social programs, a higher...
State Bank of Pakistan’s Interest Rate Hike Catches Pundits by Surprise
The State Bank of Pakistan unexpectedly raised its policy rate to 11.5% from 10.5% on April 27, 2026, marking the first increase in over three years. The move follows a rebound in first‑quarter inflation to 7.3% and concerns that the...
Major Central Banks Are up Against a Very Tough Task in Navigating Monetary Policy Next
This week’s central‑bank calendar features the BOJ, BOC, Fed, BOE and ECB, all expected to leave policy rates unchanged despite a nine‑week‑old Middle East war that has kept oil prices elevated. The conflict drives a cost‑push inflation surge that central...
Short-Term Inflation Expectations Rise, Lending Tightens in the Latest ECB's SAFE Survey
The European Central Bank’s latest SAFE survey shows Eurozone firms facing markedly tighter bank lending, with 26% reporting higher loan rates—more than double the previous quarter. Short‑term inflation expectations rose to a 3.0% median, while input‑cost inflation is projected at...
New Iranian Proposal Helps Bolster Risk Appetites
An unexpected Iranian proposal has revived hopes of a diplomatic resolution with the United States, prompting a shift toward risk‑on assets. The U.S. dollar weakened, allowing the euro to climb back above $1.17 and keeping the yen in a narrow...
The Indian Rupee Erases All Monthly Gains Amid the US-Iran Stalemate
The Indian rupee wiped out all its monthly gains as the US‑Iran stalemate persisted, while the US dollar faced mixed pressure ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting. Iran’s conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts...
Dollar Lags Even as Risk Mood Keeps More Cautious on the Day
The U.S. dollar slipped on the day while risk sentiment stayed cautious amid stalled US‑Iran talks. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1745, testing the 200‑hour moving‑average resistance, and AUD/USD rebounded 0.5% to 0.7185, approaching its June‑2022 peak. USD/CAD fell 0.4% to...
ECB to Hold the Line at This Week's Meeting - Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs says the European Central Bank is likely to hold rates at its upcoming meeting, with market odds of a hike falling to roughly 20%. The bank projects two 25‑basis‑point increases – one in June and another in September...
Operation Economic Fury Targets Australian Dollar
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging Congress to broaden dollar swap lines with Gulf allies as their oil‑linked revenues dwindle, threatening the sale of U.S. Treasuries and equities. The six Gulf nations collectively carry roughly $400‑$500 billion of dollar‑denominated debt, and...
ECB Meeting Preview: Hawkish Hold, No Precommitment
The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates on hold at its April 30 meeting, with a unanimous vote reflecting a cautious stance amid slowing eurozone growth and an emerging energy‑price inflation shock. While a rate increase in June...
What To Expect From Powell’s Fed Chair Swan Song
Jerome Powell faces what could be his final public remarks as Federal Reserve Chair ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. The central bank is expected to keep policy rates unchanged while the March core PCE inflation figure is projected at...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – April 27th, 2026
USD/JPY halted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, positioning the pair for a third straight monthly gain. The move reflects ongoing yen weakness amid divergent monetary policies between the United States and Japan. In an Elliott Wave analysis, the author projects...
We Urgently Need to Talk About Swap Lines
Izabella Kaminska’s latest Blind Spot piece warns that the current debate over dollar‑swap lines is more than a sovereign’s plea for liquidity—it is a window into the hidden mechanics of global finance. She argues that swap lines reveal who still...
Next Week’s Menu: April 25 – May 1, 2026
A packed week of monetary‑policy meetings is slated for the United States, Japan, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Canada, Hungary, Ukraine, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan, with post‑meeting press conferences from Fed Chair Powell, BoJ Governor Ueda, BoC Governor Macklem...
Another Russian Central Bank Rate Cut
The Russian Central Bank lowered its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%, marking the fifth reduction since October and a cumulative 650‑basis‑point cut since the June 2025 easing cycle began. Despite the cut, the policy rate remains well above...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8674 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8400)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8674, slightly weaker than the Reuters estimate of 6.8400. The central bank maintains a ±2% trading band around this midpoint, allowing the yuan to fluctuate within that range....
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8400 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8400, a key daily fixing watched by Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system anchors the yuan within a ±2% band around the midpoint, which the PBOC...
Rate Hike at the Central Bank of the Philippines
On April 23, 2026, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, its first hike since October 2023. The move reverses a 25‑bp cut made two months earlier, bringing the rate back above the...
93.6% AND COUNTING SINCE 2000: The Silent Collapse of Every Major Global Currency Against Gold & Why Sound Money Must...
Since the turn of the millennium, every major fiat currency has shed roughly 93% of its purchasing power when measured against gold, with the U.S. dollar down 93.8%, the euro 92.9%, the pound 94.9%, and the yen 96%. The article...
FX Alert: Dollar Bid Deepens As Oil Whispers And Funding Nerves Stir
The dollar is strengthening beyond oil‑driven moves, as structural funding demand and precautionary positioning emerge across Gulf and Asian markets. Swap‑line requests hint at early‑stage dollar needs not yet reflected in traditional stress metrics. Rising energy prices are delaying the...
Warsh, Rinse, Repeat
Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee he would curtail the Federal Reserve’s forward‑guidance routine, eliminating quarterly Summary of Economic Projections and the dot‑plot, and limiting post‑FOMC press conferences to truly "important" news. He also attacked the...
Flash PMI Gives RBA Reason to Hike
The flash PMI released on 23 April 2026 shows Australia’s business activity stabilising after March’s decline. The composite output index rose to 50.1 from 46.6, while the services PMI jumped to 50.3, indicating the sector’s rebound. Manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.0,...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Debating Warsh
Kevin Warsh, the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, is pushing for an earlier cut to the federal funds rate. Ed and Elias argue his rationale—based on a declining labor share and an AI‑driven productivity boom—misreads the...
Germany Cuts GDP Forecast in Half on the Iran War
Germany has halved its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5% and lowered the 2027 outlook to 0.9% amid the escalating Iran‑related war. The Bundesbank warns that the full economic drag from the Middle‑East conflict will hit later, with inflation...
ECB's Simkus: The ECB Shouldn't Raise Interest Rates in April
ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said an interest‑rate increase at the April meeting is unlikely, reflecting the current view that the deposit facility rate of 2.00% remains appropriate. Core inflation is hovering around the 2% target, even as headline...
Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – April 22nd, 2026
The USDCAD pair has slipped for the third consecutive week, hovering around the 1.3600 level. Elliott Wave analysts note that this support zone remains intact, but a decisive break could trigger further downside. Market participants are watching for a bearish...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – April 22nd, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave updates show divergent market dynamics as of April 22‑26, 2026. WTI crude oil is rallying on renewed fears that the US‑Iran cease‑fire may collapse, while Bitcoin has logged a fourth straight weekly gain, positioning it for a double‑digit...
Dot Plot Abolition Signal: How Forward Guidance Removal Concentrates Information-Cost Premium at the Short End
The article argues that central‑bank forward guidance acts as a market‑wide coordinate system, and its credible removal instantly forces short‑duration bond holders to demand higher compensation. A credible signal on April 21, 2026—when Fed nominee Kevin Warsh dismissed the dot...
FX Option Expiries for 21 April 10am New York Cut
InvestingLive notes two FX option expiries on 21 April at 10 a.m. New York time, both for EUR/USD at the 1.1760 and 1.1800 strikes. The pair is currently confined between a 200‑hour moving‑average floor around 1.1752 and a daily ceiling at 1.1800, forming...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Vance Heading to Pakistan for Talks with Iran
Vice President JD Vance is set to travel to Islamabad for a cease‑fire negotiation with Iran after the Supreme Leader approved a delegation, despite Tehran’s public rejection of talks under pressure. The diplomatic effort aims to avert escalation in the...
Westpac Sees US Dollar Weakening as Markets Look Through Energy Shock and Tensions
Westpac argues that despite heightened Middle East tensions, the U.S. dollar is losing steam as markets price a gradual normalization of shipping flows and improving global trade. The bank forecasts the U.S. Dollar Index falling from the high‑90s to the...