Currencies Blogs and Articles
Currencies Blogs and Articles
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EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported underlying price growth of 0.2% in February, a slight dip to 0.216% versus the whisper forecast. The figure aligned with most economists’ expectations, easing concerns about a resurgence of core inflation. Despite the modest print, the data arrived amid heightened geopolitical tension, notably the ongoing war in Europe. Analysts view the report as a data point rather than a turning‑point for monetary policy.
The Middle East war intensified with three tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the International Energy Agency to propose a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from strategic reserves. The G7 will discuss the plan, which dwarfs the 180 million‑barrel...
USD/JPY is hovering near the 158.00 level as traders grapple with mixed signals stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran. The pair’s price action reflects a classic Elliott Wave pattern, with analysts debating whether the current wave is poised for...
The latest Elliott Wave update notes that USDCAD has remained virtually unchanged this week despite extreme volatility in crude‑oil prices. Analysts highlight a critical resistance level around 1.3800 that could dictate short‑term direction. While oil surged 36% following geopolitical tensions,...
The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8824, a 35‑month low for the dollar and a record‑strength yuan. The fixing, announced around 0115 GMT, follows a managed‑float system that permits a ±2% trading band. By choosing...
The USD/JPY pair surged earlier today, testing the 158.89 resistance that halted rallies on Jan. 15 and Jan. 22. Sellers stepped in, pushing the pair down to a low of 157.96, now hovering near the 157.65‑157.97 swing zone. A decisive break below...
The GBPUSD pair fell sharply early, slipping below the 1.3298‑1.3305 swing area and touching a low of 1.3282 before buyers pushed it back above the 100‑hour moving average at 1.3347. Improved risk sentiment—driven by lower oil prices, falling yields and...
Crude oil slipped below $100 as speculation grew that G7 ministers may tap strategic reserves, calming inflation worries. U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields hovered near 4.135%, barely up, while equities modestly recovered from recent lows. The euro‑dollar pair rose to an...
The U.S. dollar slipped slightly against the Canadian loonie, while remaining stronger versus most other major currencies. USDCAD found a low of 1.35242, testing a narrow support band between 1.35219 and 1.35316 before rebounding toward the 200‑bar moving average near...
Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee, appointed in April 2022, argues that central banks must broaden their remit beyond pure monetary policy. He has transformed the BoK into a more public‑facing institution, adding video studios, visualizations, staff media training...
The ongoing Iran war is intensifying the Bank of Japan’s stagflation dilemma, forcing a choice between raising rates or maintaining ultra‑low policy for longer. Core inflation excluding food and energy fell further below the BOJ’s 2% target in January, while...
USDCAD encountered firm resistance around the 1.3750 mark, prompting a pullback that resulted in its second consecutive weekly decline. The price weakness coincided with escalating strikes across the Middle East, which have amplified global risk aversion. An Elliott Wave assessment...
The upcoming week (March 7‑13, 2026) is packed with macroeconomic releases and policy events. Central banks in Pakistan, Turkey, Peru and Serbia will hold monetary policy reviews, while the United States publishes a full slate of data including quarterly GDP, PCE deflator,...
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Hiroshi Himino said underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the bank's 2% price‑stability target, while the central bank keeps monetary conditions broadly accommodative. He emphasized that the BOJ will fine‑tune the degree of accommodation but...
Trader Ashraf Laidi posted intraday gold analysis to a WhatsApp group on March 4, 2026, highlighting the GoldBugs Ratio (GBR) as a contrarian indicator for XAUUSD. The GBR chart showed a trend‑line resistance at 6.0, implying that as long as the level...
Alasdair Macleod warns that an escalating conflict with Iran could ignite a global financial crisis, driving energy prices higher and pushing bond yields sharply upward. He argues that U.S. equities are perched in a dangerous bubble vulnerable to rapid correction....
Nikkei futures surged 3.8% to 56,310, reversing a 3.6% drop the day before. The index remains up 7.7% year‑to‑date and 45% over the past year, reflecting strong investor appetite for low‑multiple Japanese stocks and tech exposure. The Bank of Japan...
Sydney’s property auction market experiences a sharp surge in clearance rates during February and March, marking the highest seasonal performance in recent years. Historical data shows 2022 and 2024 achieved the peak clearance percentages for this period. As the year...
The latest Elliott Wave update shows EUR/USD slipping over 200 pips as investors flee to the U.S. dollar amid heightened Middle East tensions. Wave analysis suggests the pair is in a corrective phase, with the next bullish support zone around 1.0750....
The dollar continues to function as a global safe‑haven asset even amid acute crises, reaffirming its appeal to risk‑averse investors. Simultaneously, elevated U.S. Treasury yields are drawing capital despite lingering concerns over fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty. Market data shows...
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
The Federal Reserve sets its own operating budget and remits any surplus to the Treasury, but it lacks a residual claimant who would benefit from cost savings. Because officials do not capture saved dollars, there is little incentive to minimize...
The early stages of the Iran‑U.S./Israel war have pushed investors toward the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. While the dollar is currently strengthening, the article warns that a protracted conflict could unleash currency‑market turbulence reminiscent of the 1970s transition to...
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
Attacks in Iran and retaliatory strikes across the Middle East sparked a classic risk‑off rally, pushing the U.S. dollar higher and dragging most Asian equity markets lower, with the notable exception of commodity‑heavy Australia. Hong Kong’s benchmark indices fell sharply, while...
Mark Carlson’s Federal Reserve note examines the era before the Fed when U.S. commercial banks issued their own paper money, backed by a mix of bank assets and government bonds. The piece highlights how those privately‑issued notes depended on a...
German politician Merz blamed low productivity for China’s competitive edge, arguing Germans must work harder. The article counters that China’s advantage stems from systemic factors—an undervalued yuan, extensive subsidies and strategic industrial policy—that create a 40‑60% price gap despite higher...
Money‑market volatility has markedly subsided, pushing overnight repo rates to near‑record lows and stabilising the SOFR‑FF basis. Higher inter‑bank volumes are keeping the basis narrow while swap spreads have widened, signalling easier funding conditions. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive volatility suppression...
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 is expected to unwind 137,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts, signaling a tentative supply increase as Brent hovers near $71. US economic data show a slowdown in manufacturing, with the ISM PMI dropping...
USDCAD slipped during the last week of February but managed a modest monthly gain, curbing a three‑week bear run. The pair now hovers near the 1.3500 support zone, a level closely watched by Elliott Wave analysts. The latest wave count...
The EUR/USD pair posted a weekly gain but still logged a modest loss for February, leaving it perched near the 1.1800 mark. An Elliott Wave analysis was released, probing whether the next significant move will head toward the 1.21 upside...
USDJPY recorded a solid monthly gain in February as Japan's inflation slipped lower, strengthening expectations of a more dovish Bank of Japan. The currency pair’s upward momentum has reignited speculation that it could approach a multi‑decade high. Elliott Wave analysts...
On February 27, 2026 the EUR/GBP pair surged to a two‑month high, a move highlighted by FX strategist Ashraf Laidi. He linked the breakout to widening euro‑pound yield spreads and shifting rate expectations, reiterating a trade idea he first shared...
China's PBOC will cut the foreign‑exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026. The move aims to ease hedging costs, curb excessive yuan appreciation, and signal a shift from emergency policy tools....
The new book *Avoid Fiscal & Economic Disaster with Ethics, Economics, and Excellence* by former Fed official Bill Bergman and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Larry Feltes warns that America’s greatest vulnerability is a collapsing trust in its institutions. They...
The Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark rate to 1.0 % on February 25, 2026, a 25‑basis‑point reduction from 1.25 % and the lowest level since October 2022. The move was unexpected, coming after a similar cut in December and reflecting a revised outlook...
Commerzbank has cautioned that the European Central Bank must step in to nurture a viable euro‑stablecoin ecosystem. The bank argues that without clear regulatory guidance, market participants will remain hesitant, slowing adoption of digital euros. It also stresses the need...
EUR/USD has moved into positive territory this week, prompting Elliott Wave analysts to identify a decisive level that could confirm a transition from bearish to bullish dominance. The analysis highlights a key resistance break that may signal the bears relinquishing...
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that Canada faces deep structural shifts as U.S. protectionism, rapid AI adoption, and demographic aging reshape the economy. He noted the central bank kept its policy rate at 2¼ % while highlighting heightened uncertainty around...
The article reviews evidence that central banks which pushed policy rates slightly below zero—most notably in the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Japan—generated additional economic stimulus without triggering major disruptions. Empirical observations show that corporate deposit and wholesale funding...
The Australian newspaper cited the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) budget tool to challenge One Nation’s proposal to cap visas at 130,000 annually and achieve net‑zero immigration. The PBO‑based analysis estimates a $100 billion loss in federal revenue over the next decade,...
Bank of America sees the U.S. dollar gaining strength if geopolitical tensions with Iran intensify. Rising odds—now 69%—of a U.S. military strike by June could push oil prices higher while global equities weaken, a combination that traditionally benefits the greenback....
The Bank of Jamaica cut its policy rate to 5.50% from 5.75%, its sixth 25‑basis‑point reduction since August 2024 and the first cut in nine months. The move was driven by a milder‑than‑expected inflation impact from Hurricane Melissa, improved agricultural supply,...
The OECD’s latest cross‑country data for Q3 2025 shows Australia posting the smallest rise in real per‑capita household disposable income among major English‑speaking economies over the past ten years. While other nations such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada...
Polymarket’s prediction market shows a noticeable rise in the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran, signaling heightened geopolitical risk. At the same time, gold remains unusually flat, showing little enthusiasm despite the tension, while oil prices are edging higher....
The week ahead centers on Nvidia’s February 25 earnings, where analysts expect revenue to surpass $65 billion and margins to climb above 74 percent, reinforcing its AI leadership. Australian CPI data will test the Reserve Bank’s willingness to raise rates again after...
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's emergency authority to impose broad tariffs, prompting a modest sell‑off in the dollar despite its recent resilience. Dollar Index fell to just above 97.5, yet key technical levels held, while the euro recovered...
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...
