Currencies Blogs and Articles
Currencies Blogs and Articles
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
European policymakers are increasingly exploring euro‑denominated stablecoins as a tool to counterbalance the U.S. dollar’s global reach. Federal Reserve official Stephen Miran, however, argues that the dollar’s dominance will persist despite these digital euro initiatives. He points to the depth of U.S. financial markets and the Fed’s liquidity backstops as key safeguards. The discussion highlights a growing strategic debate over central bank digital currencies and reserve currency competition.
Australia’s flash PMI for February showed a deceleration, with output and new orders slipping across manufacturing and services after a vigorous start to the year. Despite the slowdown, business sentiment stayed upbeat, and employment rose sharply as firms added staff...
Government and regulatory decisions have driven administered prices—electricity, water, gas, council rates and public transport fares—up 7.55% in the last calendar year. This rise is roughly double the overall CPI inflation rate. Because administered prices are largely insulated from monetary...
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has undergone dramatic swings since its 1914 inception, expanding modestly for decades before exploding after the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2022 the sheet grew from roughly $0.9 trillion to over $9 trillion, driven by large‑scale...
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that January 2026 saw a modest net increase of 18,000 jobs, with full‑time employment rising by 50,500 and part‑time employment falling by 32,700. Total employment reached 14,703,800 and monthly hours worked climbed to 2,013 million, while...
National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine warned that Australia has hit "peak Australia," signalling that without a productivity boost the economy will stagnate. Real wages fell for the first time in two years, underscoring the pressure on living standards. Irvine...
USDCAD is climbing as Canada’s latest inflation data came in below expectations, reviving expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts. The softer CPI reading narrows the interest‑rate gap with the United States, making the U.S. dollar more attractive and...
USD/JPY edged higher this week as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalization. The pair’s modest rise reflects expectations of incremental BOJ rate hikes and a narrowing US‑Japan interest‑rate gap. An Elliott Wave update highlights a key resistance...
The EUR/USD pair slipped modestly this week as markets anticipate Friday's core PCE inflation report. Traders are closely watching the hourly chart, which now displays a nascent corrective Elliott Wave formation. The update suggests the pair could test near‑term support...
Australia’s Reserve Bank highlighted an unexpected surge in private demand, driven largely by heightened household spending from the baby‑boomer cohort. The increase in consumer‑durable price growth reinforced this trend, prompting the RBA to raise the official cash rate by 0.25%....
New Zealand’s housing market has entered a sharp correction, with the REINZ house‑price index falling 0.6% month‑on‑month and 16.2% from its early‑2022 peak, equating to a 30% real‑terms loss since 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped to pre‑pandemic levels after the...
In Part II, the podcast examines how the ongoing "Great Compression" of money‑market rates is pushing the Federal Reserve to replace its traditional overnight Fed Funds target with a new benchmark. It explains that overnight Fed Funds volume has collapsed...
China’s latest five‑year plan emphasizes a shift from property‑driven growth to technology, targeting near‑5 % GDP expansion in 2026 and projecting tech to account for 18.3 % of output by 2026. The renminbi has appreciated past the 7.0 per dollar mark, indicating reduced central‑bank...
USDJPY fell 450 pips last week after Japan’s finance minister Sanae Takaichi signaled stricter fiscal discipline. The drop reflects bearish momentum in the pair, prompting Elliott Wave analysts to pinpoint a critical support level that must be broken for bears...
Ashraf Laidi notes recent Trump administration comments that imply a deliberately weaker US dollar ahead of today’s non‑farm payroll (NFP) release. He suggests the labor data could fall far short of the 68,000 consensus, echoing a pattern of "benign neglect"...
Forex analyst Ashraf Laidi unveiled a long‑awaited EUR/GBP chart, showing the pair’s daily price breaking out of a three‑month descending channel while the weekly chart preserved an 11‑month trendline support and is now bouncing higher. He suggests the breakout could...
Retail traders often sacrifice profits by exiting positions too early, driven by a desire for constant action rather than market fundamentals. Ashraf Laidi illustrates this with the USDJPY reaction to the February NFP surprise, where the pair swung more than...
President Iliana Iotova appointed suspended Bulgarian National Bank deputy governor Andrey Gurov as interim prime minister, invoking a constitutional rule that limits caretaker‑PM candidates to ten senior officials. Gurov’s selection follows an anti‑corruption finding that barred him from his central‑bank...
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to endorse two amendments to the ECB’s annual report, labeling the digital euro “essential” for monetary sovereignty, payment‑system resilience and universal acceptance. The first amendment passed with 438 votes, the second with 420, signalling political...
Prominent Chinese economists Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong have called for easing capital controls, arguing that the current weakening U.S. dollar and a strengthening yuan present a rare opportunity to increase the currency’s value abroad. They describe 2023 and 2024...
The MacroBusiness note observes that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) halted its decline amid political headlines, while the Australian dollar stayed firm despite broader risk aversion. Beijing is expected to intervene to limit further yuan gains, and the resilience of...
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
The episode breaks down the modern repo market by illustrating how overnight rates and dealer spreads vary across different repo segments—triparty, GCF, DVP, and NCCBR. It explains that dealers profit by maintaining a positive spread between the cost of borrowing...
The episode examines how China’s digital yuan (e‑yuan) reshapes the internationalization of the renminbi by focusing on usage rather than ownership. It explains that traditional barriers were convertibility and capital controls, which limited the ability to sell or move RMB...
The latest Elliott Wave analysis notes that EUR/USD slipped during the first week of February 2026, testing the 1.1800 support zone. While the pair remains above this level, bullish sentiment persists, suggesting the wave count may still be in an...
Asian equity markets slumped after President‑Trump‑appointed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh signaled hawkish policy, prompting a broad risk‑off that also lifted the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the renminbi hit a 52‑week high at 6.94 per dollar even as commodity futures and semiconductor...
In this brief update, the host explains how the Federal Reserve’s recent liquidity injections have compressed the SOFR‑FF basis, pushing overnight SOFR rates to just a few basis points below the interest on reserve balances (IORB). Major banks, led by...
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...
