The BoC Rate Hold: Brought to You By the Letter ‘U’ for Uncertain
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing headline inflation of 1.8% and a softening core CPI. Governor Tiff Macklem repeatedly emphasized uncertainty, flagging dual‑shock risks from higher oil prices and the Iran conflict alongside volatile US trade policy. The language marks a departure from earlier confidence, signalling a conditional pause rather than a clear path forward. Analysts see the stance as a policy stalemate that could tilt toward reactive hikes if inflation resurges.
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings
Markets are navigating heightened uncertainty as the Middle East conflict eases oil flow, pushing WTI back above $94, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are set to keep policy unchanged. The Fed’s updated dot‑plot still signals a single...
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – March 18th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave update examines USD/JPY’s recent dip, assessing whether it presents a buying opportunity before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Analysts note that the pair is in a corrective wave that could signal the start of...
Why Traders Lose and How to Reverse It By Outsmarting Your Broker
Retail forex traders often lose because of behavioral biases rather than broker manipulation. The article explains that taking profits early and letting losses run creates a mathematical edge for brokers through spreads and commissions. It outlines a disciplined, business‑like approach—risk...
The Daily Feather — Shockers
The Daily Feather’s new post spotlights the oddball nicknames of U.S. colleges, zeroing in on Wichita State University’s “Shockers.” It traces the Shockers moniker to early 20th‑century wheat‑harvesting students who earned a reputation for “shocking” the grain. The article pairs...
RBA Ready to Destroy Itself?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is under market pressure to increase interest rates as inflation remains sticky. The author argues the RBA should refrain from a hike, citing a historical parallel where the European Central Bank raised rates in...
Miran’s Next Vote
Polymarket now prices a 98% chance that Fed governor Stephen Miran will dissent from the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, up from 89.1% after the Iran war began. The odds surge highlights heightened market focus on any deviation from the committee’s...
FX Alert: The Dollar Is Sitting In The Captain’s Chair While Oil Holds The World Economy Hostage
Oil prices are hovering near multi‑year highs as the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck, keeping the energy risk premium elevated. The surge in crude costs has reinforced the U.S. dollar’s dominance, with the Dollar Index perched at the top...
Battle-Weary Fed Confronts Another Supply Shock
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review) 16-20th March 2026
The week ahead is dominated by high‑profile diplomatic and monetary events, starting with a US‑China meeting in Paris that will discuss extending the tariff truce and a 25 million‑ton soybean purchase agreement. Nvidia’s GTC will showcase its Vera Rubin GPU roadmap...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 16th, 2026
EURUSD slipped another 200 pips this week, marking a second consecutive decline as market expectations shift away from further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move reflects heightened inflation risk and a stronger dollar, prompting analysts to apply Elliott Wave theory...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
After the Petrodollar
In 1974 Henry Kissinger secured an informal pact that required Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating the petrodollar system that channeled massive dollar surpluses into Treasury securities. The arrangement underpinned America’s ability to run large fiscal deficits...
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Undermining Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Governor Transitions
An IMF study of 132 central‑bank governor transitions across 28 economies finds that politically motivated appointments erode independence and alter macro outcomes. Such governors are linked to higher, more volatile inflation and cause professional forecasters to anticipate dovish policy. Following...
USDCAD Technicals: The Ceiling for the Week Is Being Tested. Can the Buyers Push Above It?
The USDCAD pair is testing a well‑defined resistance ceiling at 1.36065, matching the week’s high. Repeated failures at this level have made it a critical barometer for market sentiment. A decisive break above could unlock bullish momentum toward the 50%...
The USD Is Mixed as the Market Prepares for the North American Session
The U.S. dollar opened the North American session mixed, firming against the euro and pound while slipping against the yen after testing 2026 highs. Technical analysis highlights key support and resistance levels on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY as traders brace...
Cool Inflation Report Is Old News In Hot War
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported underlying price growth of 0.2% in February, a slight dip to 0.216% versus the whisper forecast. The figure aligned with most economists’ expectations, easing concerns about a resurgence of core inflation. Despite the...
Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider
The Middle East war intensified with three tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the International Energy Agency to propose a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from strategic reserves. The G7 will discuss the plan, which dwarfs the 180 million‑barrel...
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – March 11th, 2026
USD/JPY is hovering near the 158.00 level as traders grapple with mixed signals stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran. The pair’s price action reflects a classic Elliott Wave pattern, with analysts debating whether the current wave is poised for...
Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – March 11th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave update notes that USDCAD has remained virtually unchanged this week despite extreme volatility in crude‑oil prices. Analysts highlight a critical resistance level around 1.3800 that could dictate short‑term direction. While oil surged 36% following geopolitical tensions,...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8824 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8824, a 35‑month low for the dollar and a record‑strength yuan. The fixing, announced around 0115 GMT, follows a managed‑float system that permits a ±2% trading band. By choosing...
USDJPY Technicals: USDJPY Backs Off 158.89 Resistance. What Next?
The USD/JPY pair surged earlier today, testing the 158.89 resistance that halted rallies on Jan. 15 and Jan. 22. Sellers stepped in, pushing the pair down to a low of 157.96, now hovering near the 157.65‑157.97 swing zone. A decisive break below...
GBPUSD Technicals: GBPUSD Rebounds but Tests Key Resistance
The GBPUSD pair fell sharply early, slipping below the 1.3298‑1.3305 swing area and touching a low of 1.3282 before buyers pushed it back above the 100‑hour moving average at 1.3347. Improved risk sentiment—driven by lower oil prices, falling yields and...
EURUSD Tecnicals: EURUSD Rebounds as Oil Eases and Markets Stabilize
Crude oil slipped below $100 as speculation grew that G7 ministers may tap strategic reserves, calming inflation worries. U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields hovered near 4.135%, barely up, while equities modestly recovered from recent lows. The euro‑dollar pair rose to an...
USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD Sellers Lean Against Key Short-Term Resistance
The U.S. dollar slipped slightly against the Canadian loonie, while remaining stronger versus most other major currencies. USDCAD found a low of 1.35242, testing a narrow support band between 1.35219 and 1.35316 before rebounding toward the 200‑bar moving average near...
Transformative Central Banker: Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee
Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee, appointed in April 2022, argues that central banks must broaden their remit beyond pure monetary policy. He has transformed the BoK into a more public‑facing institution, adding video studios, visualizations, staff media training...
Iran War Worsens BOJ’s Stagflation Dilemma, Postpones Rate Hike
The ongoing Iran war is intensifying the Bank of Japan’s stagflation dilemma, forcing a choice between raising rates or maintaining ultra‑low policy for longer. Core inflation excluding food and energy fell further below the BOJ’s 2% target in January, while...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – March 9th, 2026
USDCAD encountered firm resistance around the 1.3750 mark, prompting a pullback that resulted in its second consecutive weekly decline. The price weakness coincided with escalating strikes across the Middle East, which have amplified global risk aversion. An Elliott Wave assessment...
Next Week’s Menu: March 7-13, 2026
The upcoming week (March 7‑13, 2026) is packed with macroeconomic releases and policy events. Central banks in Pakistan, Turkey, Peru and Serbia will hold monetary policy reviews, while the United States publishes a full slate of data including quarterly GDP, PCE deflator,...
BOJ Policymaker Himino: Underlying Inflation Gradually Accelerating to 2% Target
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Hiroshi Himino said underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the bank's 2% price‑stability target, while the central bank keeps monetary conditions broadly accommodative. He emphasized that the BOJ will fine‑tune the degree of accommodation but...
Gold Daily, Weekly & GoldBugs
Trader Ashraf Laidi posted intraday gold analysis to a WhatsApp group on March 4, 2026, highlighting the GoldBugs Ratio (GBR) as a contrarian indicator for XAUUSD. The GBR chart showed a trend‑line resistance at 6.0, implying that as long as the level...
Interview with Dunagun Kaiser
Alasdair Macleod warns that an escalating conflict with Iran could ignite a global financial crisis, driving energy prices higher and pushing bond yields sharply upward. He argues that U.S. equities are perched in a dangerous bubble vulnerable to rapid correction....
Nikkei Futures Are up 3.8%
Nikkei futures surged 3.8% to 56,310, reversing a 3.6% drop the day before. The index remains up 7.7% year‑to‑date and 45% over the past year, reflecting strong investor appetite for low‑multiple Japanese stocks and tech exposure. The Bank of Japan...
Sydney’s “Pretty Sh!t” Auction Market
Sydney’s property auction market experiences a sharp surge in clearance rates during February and March, marking the highest seasonal performance in recent years. Historical data shows 2022 and 2024 achieved the peak clearance percentages for this period. As the year...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – March 4th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave update shows EUR/USD slipping over 200 pips as investors flee to the U.S. dollar amid heightened Middle East tensions. Wave analysis suggests the pair is in a corrective phase, with the next bullish support zone around 1.0750....
What We Just Learned About The Dollar
The dollar continues to function as a global safe‑haven asset even amid acute crises, reaffirming its appeal to risk‑averse investors. Simultaneously, elevated U.S. Treasury yields are drawing capital despite lingering concerns over fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty. Market data shows...
The Dollar Is the Only Game in Town
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
Federal Reserve Revenue: Cutsinger’s Solution
The Federal Reserve sets its own operating budget and remits any surplus to the Treasury, but it lacks a residual claimant who would benefit from cost savings. Because officials do not capture saved dollars, there is little incentive to minimize...
Reflections on the Latest Middle Eastern War and How the Dollar Might Be Impacted
The early stages of the Iran‑U.S./Israel war have pushed investors toward the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. While the dollar is currently strengthening, the article warns that a protracted conflict could unleash currency‑market turbulence reminiscent of the 1970s transition to...
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
Risk Off Rules The Day
Attacks in Iran and retaliatory strikes across the Middle East sparked a classic risk‑off rally, pushing the U.S. dollar higher and dragging most Asian equity markets lower, with the notable exception of commodity‑heavy Australia. Hong Kong’s benchmark indices fell sharply, while...
A Brief History of Bank Notes in the United States and some Lessons for Stablecoins
Mark Carlson’s Federal Reserve note examines the era before the Fed when U.S. commercial banks issued their own paper money, backed by a mix of bank assets and government bonds. The piece highlights how those privately‑issued notes depended on a...
Merz Is Wrong: Why Hard Work Won’t Beat China
German politician Merz blamed low productivity for China’s competitive edge, arguing Germans must work harder. The article counters that China’s advantage stems from systemic factors—an undervalued yuan, extensive subsidies and strategic industrial policy—that create a 40‑60% price gap despite higher...
Plumbing Notes: Nothing Ever Happens
Money‑market volatility has markedly subsided, pushing overnight repo rates to near‑record lows and stabilising the SOFR‑FF basis. Higher inter‑bank volumes are keeping the basis narrow while swap spreads have widened, signalling easier funding conditions. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive volatility suppression...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 2 March 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 2nd-6th March 2026
The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 is expected to unwind 137,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts, signaling a tentative supply increase as Brent hovers near $71. US economic data show a slowdown in manufacturing, with the ISM PMI dropping...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – March 2nd, 2026
USDCAD slipped during the last week of February but managed a modest monthly gain, curbing a three‑week bear run. The pair now hovers near the 1.3500 support zone, a level closely watched by Elliott Wave analysts. The latest wave count...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 2nd, 2026
The EUR/USD pair posted a weekly gain but still logged a modest loss for February, leaving it perched near the 1.1800 mark. An Elliott Wave analysis was released, probing whether the next significant move will head toward the 1.21 upside...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – March 2nd, 2026
USDJPY recorded a solid monthly gain in February as Japan's inflation slipped lower, strengthening expectations of a more dovish Bank of Japan. The currency pair’s upward momentum has reignited speculation that it could approach a multi‑decade high. Elliott Wave analysts...
Breakout to 2 Month Highs
On February 27, 2026 the EUR/GBP pair surged to a two‑month high, a move highlighted by FX strategist Ashraf Laidi. He linked the breakout to widening euro‑pound yield spreads and shifting rate expectations, reiterating a trade idea he first shared...