Eurozone Inflation Surprise: Core Goods and Services Fall
🇪🇺 Euro area HICP flash estimate came in below expectations, with both core goods (-23bp) and services inflation (-13bp) down in March. Early days, focus will be any signs of second-round effects, etc etc. https://t.co/AaktjkVaKZ
Zimbabwe's Central Bank Halts M2 Data Since 2025
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe hasn't officially released M2 Money Supply data since December 2025. ZIM = A MASTERCLASS IN POOR ECONOMIC DATA. https://t.co/19E41X3pxN
Central Banks, Not Treasuries, Curb Debt Monetization
Indeed no Treasury has ever said "stop monetizing debt, that's inflationary." It is the independent central bank's job to push back on debt monetization.
BoE Warns Industrial Policy Can Fuel Harmful Trade Surpluses
The Bank of England continues to be among the few major central banks to warn about the adverse effects of persistent trade imbalances. Although most models used by economists assume that trade is balanced, or is unbalanced only temporarily before...
Powell Denies QE's Role in Inflation and Inequality, Lies
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
Bank of England Joins Imbalance Club as Asia Surplus Swells
Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went...
Rial Strengthens 9% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. AN IMPORTANT FACT THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA HAS FAILED TO REPORT ON. https://t.co/Dlt04mOOmJ
US Dollar Reserve Share Hits 31‑Year Low Amid Diversification
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold. The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.” https://t.co/cHnT24iCcd https://t.co/kINZT79BbA
Dollar Poised to Surge Toward 105.50 Target
Dollar seems like it wants to rip... 105.50 target if so $USD $UUP $DXY @stockcharts https://t.co/UiwZRpV53z
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
The Dollar’s Secret Global Journey: Cash Hoards to Stablecoins
💵From Belarus vaults to Miami cash hubs, the U.S. dollar has a global life most of us never see. Former Fed economist, Ruth Judson, joins me on the podcast to unpack global cash hoards, counterfeit networks, and the rise...
Powell Warns Confidence Precedes Grasp of Rising Risks
Powell downplays dissent on the Fed's board and says you would expect disagreement when there are both downside employment and upside inflation risks that are growing. "Confidence is what you feel before you really understand the problem."
USD Poised for Post‑month‑end Reversal Despite Current Hedging
Month end comes at a most interesting time for the DXY. The market was super complacent in early March and now appears to be hedged a fair bit as risk reversals have blown out in EURUSD etc (bid for EUR puts). I...
Euro Faces Steepest Quarterly Drop Since 2024
Euro is poised for worst quarter since 2024 as oil shock bites https://t.co/Z3N3DfLpbB via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/yjLvpdnvVF
Turkey's Overheated Growth Fuels Deficits, Risks Shock
The danger for Turkey is always the same. The current government pushes growth way above the speed limit, which leads to a large current account deficit. Then a shock like high oil prices hits and things run out of control....
Turkey's Reserves Plunge, Echoing 2025 Devaluation After Mayor's Arrest
Turkey's reserve losses rival March 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. They're up in the most recent data point only because the central bank used its gold to get access to more foreign exchange. In March 2025 this ended...
Dollar Gains, Yen Rises Amid Middle East Tensions
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen: The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly...
USD Strengthens While JPY Pulls Back Amid BOJ Intervention
$USD is mostly firmer. $JPY is the notable exception. Escalated verbal intervention and news that the BOJ would consider a larger than usual rater move, have encouraged a pullback from around JPY160.40. NY may be less worried about intervention....
European Consumer Inflation Expectations Surge, Business Outlook Remains Tame
🇪🇺Another unsurprising yet unpleasant chart, showing a sharp rise in European consumer inflation expectations. Expectations from companies were much more contained though. The bigger focus will be on potential second round effects, too early to tell. https://t.co/zQ567go12i
FX Reserve Decline Driven by Oil Importers, Not Exporters
Lots of talk about oil exporters in the Gulf selling fx reserves. That may happen. But for now the visible fall in fx reserves is coming from the oil importers (CBRT = Turkey, RBI= India) https://t.co/8prQkznGG6
Reverse Carry Trade Triggers Japan Panic, Author Confident
Japan will panic. I’m fucking right. This is the reverse carry trade catalyst. It always was. I never wavered. I went through hell. I suffered managing funds in a horrible cycle that didn’t favor them. Enough. Enough. Enough. I will not relent. It’s my time now.
Yen Hits Weakest Level Since 1980s Market Crash
The Japanese Yen (JPY) sits at an uncomfortable precipice. It’s not been this weak since the 1980s when the Japanese stock market collapsed.
FX Unwind Loss Overstated Amid INR Depreciation
Just relax about this supposed 4,000 crore loss on FX unwinding. Just in the past month the INR has depreciated by over 4%. All these positions would not have been set up for the first time at Friday 27th close....
Fed's Tightening Leeway Evaporates Amid New Data
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Turkey Sells Billions in Gold to Prop Lira
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland)....
Dollar Weaponization Reshapes Finance, Gold, and Investment Flows
The “weaponization of the dollar” has profound implications for financial plumbing, the dollar itself, and investment flows—including gold. @edwardfishman’s Chokepoints is a must-read on history/key players/dynamics. Thanks @nfergus for the recommendation. https://t.co/4AcmzUniud
UAE’s Closure Drives Iran Toward Chinese Banking
The faster UAE closes money window on Iran, quicker China becomes Iran's banker. 1)China pays for Iranian oil into Chnse bank accts2) Iran buys gold w CNY in Shanghai's CNY gold mkt & do what Russia did w China after...
Dollar Weakness Paused; Brazil Set to Surge Post‑war
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
Stagflation and War Trigger Biggest 60/40 Loss Since 2022
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
Turkey Alone Sells Gold Amid Fragile Currency Peg
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
Heavy Data Week Ahead, Iran Conflict Still Dominates
This week is packed with market moving data but Iran War will remain a key focus 👇 🇺🇸 US -Retail Sales -Non-Farm Payrolls -ADP -Chicago PMI -ISM Mfg -Confidence -Trade 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ CPI & GE CPI -Confidence -GE Retail Sales -GE Unemployment 🇬🇧 UK -GDP 🇨🇦 CA -GDP -Trade 🇦🇺 AU -RBA Minutes -Trade 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -Retail Sales -Tankan
Euro Adoption Spikes Bulgaria's Inflation Beyond ECB Target
Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the Euro was supposed to benefit Bulgaria. Instead, inflation sits at 3.32%/yr, WELL ABOVE the ECB's 2%/yr inflation target. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted this. https://t.co/c3KVbZZNxx
Borrowing on Track,
Half the annual borrowing in half the year is completely in line with estimates. A crisis may also need additional borrowing, let's see. Rbi will also announce a pay out soon and the balance sheet is way too large, hope...
Japan’s Low Inflation Mirrors Sluggish Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation eases to 1.26%/yr in February, BELOW its inflation target of 2%/yr. Japan’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.73%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of ~6.07%/yr, consistent w/ Japan’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Reserve Currency Advantage No Longer Erodes Domestic Industry
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Fuels Inflation, Stalls Rate Cuts
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
Claims Original Reverse Carry Trade Idea, Accuses Others of Theft
All these mother fuckers who made personal attacks on me because they disagreed with my reverse carry trade thesis on Japan are literally stealing shit from me now. Don’t you ever fucking forget I’m the OG of the idea.
Post‑2008 Dollarisation Wave Restores 2000‑Era Share
Three distinct waves of dollarisation since the 1960s. The most recent wave, which emerged after the 2008 global crisis, pushed the dollar's share to nearly match its level from 2000, when the euro was introduced. https://t.co/A6TnrvTxXS
War Risks Renew Bond Market Crises Across Europe
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Asset Supply Surges, Credit Stagnates Amid Wage Stagnation
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
War Risks Clash with Aggressive Central Bank Pricing
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
Turkey Leverages Gold Reserves for Liquidity, Defends Lira
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
India's Rupee Hits Record Low Amid US‑Israel Iran Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has PLUNGED to a RECORD LOW. Thanks to the US and Israel's attack on Iran, India is paying a high cost. MODI SHOULD SEND THE BILL TO WASHINGTON DC AND JERUSALEM. https://t.co/T9AjFXiDVU
Western Markets Rise, Middle East Falls, Gold Steadies at $4100/Oz
How the west was won, the MidEast was lost & $4100/oz gold held https://t.co/VJQ1W1pdz5 #forex #XAUUSD $GLD
Bank Flows Explain $3 Trillion China Surplus‑Reserve Gap
As I mentioned on Wednesday, there is a $3 trillion gap between China's accumulated current account surplus since the pandemic and China's unchanged reserves (and a corresponding gap in visible flows into the US) Bank flows make up most of the...
Liquidity Crunch, Not Recession, Will Trigger Next Market Crash
Hot take: the next drawdown won’t be “a recession.” It’ll be a liquidity accident. Dollar firm. FX carry crowded. Credit tightens quietly. Then everyone acts shocked. Markets don’t blow up from headlines. They blow up from plumbing. https://t.co/oS1ebUhkzJ
EUR/USD Selloff Accelerates; Bottom Remains Unclear
Euro Q2 Outlook: EUR/USD Selloff Accelerates – Where Is the Bottom? https://t.co/tcAqDgTQxZ $EURUSD Weekly & Monthly Charts https://t.co/o5x5v4BsVL
Iran War Sparks Global Stagflation, EM Rate Hike Pressure
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
Yen Poised for 30‑year Breakout as Dollar Stalls
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6