USD/JPY Breaches 160, Eyes Potential 162 Breakout
For the first time since July 2024, $USD has pushed above JPY160. It almost reached JPY160.40, which we suggested was needed to confirm a breakout. The BOJ & MOF officials I have spoken with seem more sophisticated that draw an intervention line at a fixed level. JPY162 next?
Dollar May Fade, But Not Anytime Soon
In my latest Telegraph column I defend the dollar by channelling @TomCruise’s Maverick. To the claim that the dollar is probably headed for extinction, I say: Maybe so. But not today. https://t.co/lTW4ry33Lp https://t.co/q9PtKebSYk
BoJ Must Emergency Hike to Halt JGB Steepening
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
OECD Predicts 4.2% US Inflation, Trump’s Achilles’ Heel
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
Americans Trust Fed to Tame Inflation Amid New Iran Shock
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
Markets Brace for Volatility on Friday Opening
This is what markets are facing as we open for the last trading day of the week. https://t.co/F12P7EqHe1 https://t.co/kOToKFnLTg
ECB Warns June Rate Hike if War Continues
ECB’s Wunsch says rate hike likely if war isn’t over by June https://t.co/DfO5yOLNdf via @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/rkEFK0fHSo
Iran War Scenarios Shape New Fed Policy Outlook
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
Dollar and Oil Hold Steady After Trump’s Iran Pledge
The Dollar and Oil are Bid: The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days...
USD/JPY Near 160 as Risk Appetite Remains Cautious
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
BoE Independence Questioned as Letter‑Writing Ritual Sparks US Controversy
Reading this, all I can think is: what does it say about BoE “independence” if even considering its letter-writing model is deemed hyper controversial in the US? Moreover, I suspect a few former UK PMs would dispute the idea that...
Politicized Money Boosts Policy Risk, Hedge USD Exposure
Macro: politicization of money raises policy risk. Key factors: Trump to sign US bills, symbolic reflation tilt. Risks: polarization, FX volatility. Trade insight: hedge USD exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
USD/INR at 94.27 Signals Prolonged Market Turbulence
94.27 on the USDINR. These are going to be rough times, and it's going to take time for flows to come back in
Ringgit Slides to 4.00/USD, Investors Eye Fuel Subsidy Risk
Ringgit seeing weakness the last few days. It’s now: • 4.00 against USD • 3.12 against SGD Since the US war began, ringgit has weakened against Yuan, Yen, GBP, EUR. Could it be investors becoming a bit concerned about rising fuel subsidy bill?
ECB Shifts From Rate Cuts to Hikes Amid Energy Shock
The ECB spent two years cutting rates to revive growth. Now energy shocks are forcing them to hike into a slowdown. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ZKgiJs3tbu
Jefferson and Barr's Speeches Raise Fedlock Hawkishness
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
CBDC Embedded in Housing Law Hints at Yield Restrictions
There is a CBDC inserted in the middle of a housing act and we’re also getting one in 2030Ish Maybe this is another reason why they don’t wanna give us yield on stablecoins https://t.co/tXDqJOn6hB
Mexico's Rate Cut Highlights EM Outpacing Developed Central Banks
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
Bullish EURCAD M30: Turtle Soup Signals Reversal
📊 EURCAD M30 – Trade Setup On the M30 timeframe, we have a bullish market structure in place. 📈 🪤 We also identified a Turtle Soup setup, indicating a potential liquidity trap and reversal move. ⚡ Additionally, the market is forming an AMD...
BoE Doubts Iran War Will Spark UK Inflation
Bank of England rate-setters doubt that the Iran war will trigger a UK price spiral https://t.co/7RIt9Lei1J via @irinaanghel12 @KowalczeKamil @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nWmHGMb2Qb
Weak Dollar Fails to Lift Emerging Markets Amid Rising Yields
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
USD/JPY Pauses Below 160: Breakout or Reversal?
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Stalls Below 160 – Breakout or Reversal? https://t.co/GZOTQAu87d $USDJPY Weekly Chart https://t.co/wFejZPDsD5
SARB’s Short
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
Japan's Oil Dependence Triggers Treasury Sales, Yield Spike
Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. 70% moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil spikes, Japan sells Treasuries to defend the yen. When Japan sells Treasuries, yields spike. When yields spike, everything breaks. Watch USD/JPY. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/8Vd43Ls5lB
GBP/USD Hits Key Resistance, Rally Stalls
Quick video update on the #GBPUSD levels British Pound Struggles as Key Resistance Caps Rally Again https://t.co/fka5fSX6Wb On YouTube: https://t.co/HiVu0iuLkg
Turkey Likely Used Gold Swap to Fund Lira Defense
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
Dollar Holds Steady as Stocks and Bonds Slip
Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed while Bonds and Stocks Weaken: The US dollar is trading in narrow trading ranges against the G10 currencies today, but the calm in the foreign exchange market belies stress in other parts of the capital...
Norges Bank Signals Upcoming Rate Hike This Year
🇳🇴 Norges Bank hawkish pivot charted. The policy rate is expected to be raised "at one of the forthcoming meetings" assuming the economy "evolves broadly as currently envisaged". https://t.co/3LIbGfEvOW
High-Probability CHFJPY Sell Limit Across Multiple Timeframes
CHFJPY SELL LIMIT 203.292 SL 204.154 TP 197.662 📊 CHFJPY Signal Update This CHFJPY signal was created by combining the Weekly, Daily, and H4 timeframes to achieve a high-probability setup. 🔍📈 🎯 Going forward, we will share signals in this structured format so the community...
Oil's Percentage Rise Varies by Currency Unit
Intro econ for NYT reporters, oil was priced in yen it would be going up more in percentage terms in yen than it is going up in percentage terms in dollars. The unit is just a convention https://t.co/zCOwmbyJQv
Fed Expands FIMA Access, Extends Window, Could Crash Yields
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Oil Importers Intervene; Turkey's Thin Reserves Raise Risk
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
USD/CAD Breakout Sparks 2% Surge to 1.38
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Surges 2% After Breakout – 1.38 Now the Battleground https://t.co/41a7o4JqSD $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/R9OllkfdxO
China Struggles to Pair Surplus with Limited Foreign Asset Growth
China's dilemma is that while it can reduce SAFE's exposure to the Treasury market, it hasn't found a way to consistently combine a big external surplus and limited state foreign asset growth. The state banks are doing something...
Dollar's Strength Misread Despite Recent Index Gains
Thoughts on the Dollar: The dollar's resilience since the war began is not a mystery, but it is being misread. The Dollar Index has appreciated roughly 1.8% this month alone, following a modest 0.65% gain in February after January's 1.35%...
AUD/USD Volatility Rises Near Critical Support Resistance
Short Video Update on the $AUDUSD Levels Australian Dollar Volatility Builds As Key Levels Come Into Focus https://t.co/tHpg3yLHp5 https://t.co/hDVvA8DO2k
All Central Banks Share the Same Inflation Blunder
Powell's Inflation Excuse – It's All BS! Powell: "Inflation was global so you can't blame us." Me: That's BS. Every central bank made the same mistake – cutting rates, printing money, flooding economies. That doesn't excuse the Fed. It proves they ALL...
No Viable Alternative: US Dollar Remains Unshakable
When I read articles like this I'm always minded to ask what could replace it? On every occasion the possible alternatives don't stakc up - the US dollar isn't going anywhere
Markets Rally Amid Iran Conflict Uncertainty
🚨 Markets are surging - but Iran says truce, talks NOT viable in current conditions Missiles are still flying Oil is driving EVERYTHING ⚠️Is this a real move or a trap? Here's what I'm watching before I touch anything $SPY $GLD $USO $DXY $EURUSD...
USD Steadies on Hopeful Middle East Ceasefire Proposal
$USD is mostly consolidating with a slightly firmer bias after yesterday's late NY sell-off amid hope of a soon end to the war in the Middle East. US offers ceasefire proposal while sending more Marines and equipment to the...
Sudan's Pound Plummets to World's 6th Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. https://t.co/6wm9wwnlxP
India’s REER Shows Rupee Deeply Undervalued, Services Amplify
India's REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) index is substantially below 100, no matter which currency basket we use. Below 100 means the rupee is undervalued. I have issues with the index (which only uses good trade, not services) - if...
March PMI Slump Hits Australia; US‑Iran Energy Crisis Spreads
Global composite activity PMIs for March universality dropped for the latest month's activity. Australia took the biggest hit. Japan and US still holding up the best relatively speaking. Overall, the US-Iran conflict's energy crisis is spilling over https://t.co/viZdRPVFN9
North Korean Won Plummets 61%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 61% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON IS THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/WiB50eaMz6
Markets Overestimate Rate Hikes; PMI Says Otherwise
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
B‑Book Strategies Thrive Until Market Reverses, Then Collapse
When B Books fail. I still remmember the GBPJPY trade of 2005-2006 like it was yesterday. I was working for FXCM whic was teh biggest retai dealer at the time and of course like dealers the delaing room was rarely offsetting risk...
War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Inflation, ECB Hikes, and Gold Dip Buying Explored
This morning on @asharqbusiness discussing inflation, ECB rate hikes, buying the dip on gold and other macroeconomic data. 📊
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across Major Pairs
Interesting FX options expiring tomorrow: $1.1605 for 1.8 bln euros, Thurs ~1.4 bln euros at $1.16. JPY160 for $885 mln A$1.4 bln at $0.6950. $420 mln at CAD1.3785 and $590 mln at CAD1.38. DTCC listed.