Most Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Shorting the Dollar
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx
USD Steady as Japan Faces Beijing Pressure on JPY
The $USD is mostly little changed. The focus is on $JPY. Beijing stepped up export restrictions to ostensibly curb Tokyo's remilitarization and PM Takaichi reported pressed BOJ harder not to raise rates. See https://t.co/kOoSATxYUA https://t.co/1osffkrwvk
Norway Central Bank Likely Pushes Rate Cut to Q3
Norway central bank seen delaying the next rate cut to the 3rd quarter https://t.co/DQxoj354TR via @ottummelas https://t.co/jKYdw66YUF
Short EUR/USD Below 50‑Day SMA Target 1.1670
EUR/USD neutral; testing 50‑day SMA/61.8% fib at 1.1769. Momentum weak after brief post‑SCOTUS dollar selloff; tariff uncertainty persists. Insight: short below 50‑day SMA to 1.1670–1.1650. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s USD Pullback Demands over $100B Monthly Liquidity
Setser: "$100b a month is a large sum, it had to go into a fairly liquid corner of the market". And of course if on top of this China really were reducing its exposure to USD assets, we would need more...
China May Pause Reserve Dedollarization if US Eases Taiwan Stance
So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
Accelerating Trade Imbalances Will Deepen Global Tensions
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...
China Buys FX as Yuan Rises to Curb Appreciation
A little more complicated -- China consistently buys more fx when the CNY is appreciating (whether for structural or cyclical reasons). Exports start converting, and controlling the pace of appreciation takes intervention. Subtle point, but clear in the data
China’s $100B/Month FX Buying Blocks Dollar Diversification
Me, in the Financial Times -- On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX 1/ https://t.co/Pc78czuld9
BofA Survey Turns Ultra‑Bearish on Dollar, Go Long
The BofA fund manager survey has never been this bearish on the dollar. It is time to bite your lip and start being a lonely dollar long. I have a sample size of one here, arguably a sample size of...
Global Imbalances Drive International Payments Problems
A bit more on section 122 -- Adam Tooze noted that the simplest read of "international payments problems" is a problem of global imbalances manifest by large surpluses and large (U.S.) deficits 1/ https://t.co/86nmn36jP7
RBA Holds Quarterly Trimmed Mean, Shorten AUD Duration
RBA probes monthly inflation gauges but sticks to quarterly trimmed mean; policy shift distant, volatile. Risk: noisy swings. Trade: shorten AUD duration until monthly series confirms trend. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Rupee's Fall Fuels 349% Surge in Gold Imports
The WEAKENING Indian rupee is triggering a GOLD RUSH. The rupee is DOWN 5.6% against the USD since the start of last year. In response, India’s gold imports has surged 349% during the past year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/iGjJpyGh1p
Honored with Volcker Lifetime Award for Economic Policy
I’m honoured to receive the Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award for Economic Policy. Paul Volcker’s personal conviction reshaped the trajectory of central banking in the US and around the world. Read my speech https://t.co/YcIx8y210A https://t.co/w1EZ0DOmzW
China Swapped US Treasuries for Commodities via BRI
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Dollar's Reserve Role Extends to Growing Quasi‑Reserves
Indeed; an important point -- tho the dollar's reserve currency role is often taken to mean its role in private payments not just in official reserves. More importantly, there is a lot quasi-reserves floating around now --...
December PCE Inflation Hits 2.9%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose from 2.8%/yr in November to 2.9%/yr in December. That’s ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/bTd3rr7JXl
Emerging Markets Still Offer Cheap Value Opportunities
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...
Chile's Chicago Boy Reforms Outpace Argentina's Peso Woes
Chile basks in the afterglow of the free-market reforms put in place by Pinochet’s Chicago Boys (1973–1990). Argentina struggles under the weight of the Argentine peso. CHILE LEAVES ARGENTINA IN THE DUST. https://t.co/UyNgQY2kIL
DXY Net Longs Flip Back to Positive Territory
#DXY net longs make it to net longs territory for now https://t.co/HWXbhMOOqi #forex $FXE $UUP https://t.co/Emg2FxVwkD
Neutral Rate Near 3% as Forecast‑Based Policy Debate Rises
Need to know where we are relative forecast-based policy setting. Neutral rate est at what it was a little less than 3%. The push to make policy on forecasts is something the administration’s nominee to replace Chair Powell has argued....
Walller Signals Potential Rate‑Cut Pause Amid Improving Data
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
USD Stays Flat Post‑SCOTUS, Defying Tariff‑Driven Drops
Big moves in currencies are made one small move at a time. The fact that USD didn't rally substantially after the SCOTUS decision is remarkable. After all, it fell a lot when reciprocal tariffs hit, so the fact that it...
Waller's March Cut Unlikely; FOMC Odds Near Zero
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
Colombia, Chile, South Korea Lead 2026 Emerging Market Inflows
What are the hottest EMs in 2026? There are a handful of EMs that have monthly BoP flows. Those show a big rise in foreign investor inflows for Colombia (red), Chile (blue) and South Korea (purple). India (green) and Mexico...
Waller Says March Rate Move Hinges on Feb Payroll
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
1970s Balance‑of‑Payments Deficit Returns Under Trump
Back to the 1970s again. History, Trump, the law and the balance of payments. Can the bofp be in deficit? Did a chartbook in response to the fascinating exchange between @Brad_Setser & @PhilWMagness https://t.co/ryYY7Z9OBm https://t.co/zySJwiEZN7
Dollar's Dominance Will Persist Despite Trumpian Challenges
Former ECBer, Vitor Constancio, thinks the dollar debasement narrative is overstated. He says, yes, Trumpian policies are challenging the international monetary order, but they are not, as yet, leading it to crumble: "the dollar will continue to dominate for decades ahead". His...
Dollar Holds Despite Weak GDP, Falters in Asia
When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done: The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure...
USD Holds Steady Amid Volatility and Holiday Closures
Some volatility, yes, but net-net the $USD is little changed from the it settled at the end of last week. It was initially marked lower but is nearly flat now. Japan mkt were closed for a holiday, while a...
Discussing Economy, Trade, and Central Bank Independence
I had a good discussion with @MargBrennan of @FaceTheNation about the economy, trade, central bank independence and other topics. https://t.co/7S39jwcldt
Mexico's 0.8% Growth Lags US, Marks EM Failure
In 2024 and 2025, Mexico grew at an annualized pace of 0.8%, even as the US grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in those two years. Mexico's growth stagnation, which - outside of COVID - has now lasted since...
Erdogan's 2021 Governor Dismissal Triggers Endless Lira Decline
The last truly independent central bank Governor in Turkey was fired in March 2021. That sent the Lira into a devaluation spiral from which it's never recovered. It doesn't matter who the economic team is now. If Erdogan did this...
Argentina's Dollar Peg Has Never Delivered Stability
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
Enter Trends at the Bottom, Reduce Risk Dramatically
→ Trends exist only 15-20% of the time → You never know how far a breakout will go → Your risk is almost never clearly defined Turn trading flips the script: → Enter at the pivot → Risk is small and measurable...
Trend Trading Fails: Trends Exist Only 15‑20% of Time
🔥 New Video: Turn Trading Beats Trend Trading Every Time 🚨 85% of traders are doing THIS wrong They say they love trend trading Here’s the truth👇 📉 Trends only exist 15–20% of the time The rest? Chop. Noise. Fakeouts. Flying blind on risk @Fxflow...
Strong US Data Now Weakens, Not Strengthens, the Dollar
The Dollar used to rally on strong data, but that's no longer true. Recent examples are strong payrolls on Feb 11 or hot core PCE inflation on Feb 20. We're in the early stages of a regime change for USD,...
EUR/USD Slides to Key Support, Breakdown Risk Rising
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Drops to Pivotal Support – Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/geZ18ZVnup $EURUSD Monthly & Weekly Charts https://t.co/jYZ8uLmgEG
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
USD Stays Strong; “Global Reserve Asset” Rebrands Failure
For what its worth, the reason the term “Global Reserve Asset” has gained traction over last 5 yrs is bc those who previously said USD would lose “Global Reserve Currency” status had to pivot after getting everything they ever dreamed...
Europe Needs Independent Central Banks to Drive AI Growth
In my interview with @WSJ, I spoke about Europe’s economy, the importance of central bank independence, AI and more. Read my interview https://t.co/LEbflpU9tB https://t.co/KlfELnA179
Dollar Declines Despite Hot Inflation and SCOTUS Ruling
The Dollar yesterday fell back to its recent lows against EM, even though core PCE inflation came in hot and the SCOTUS decision should have lifted it. Regime change for USD is upon us. Things that ordinarily lift the Dollar...
Dollar's Decline Signals Shift; Reconsider Your Investments
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”
Dollar Weakness Boosts Gold, Hurts US Stocks
⚠️US Dollar weakness is historically BAD news for US stocks: AVERAGE ANNUALIZED RETURNS during the 5 major Dollar bear markets since 1967: S&P 500: +6.4% annualized Gold: +43.1% annualized EM stocks: +23.7% annualized👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Dollar's Future Uncertain After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?: The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's use of emergency powers to impose widespread tariffs. The court did not rule on refunds. Trump quickly announced a 10% across-the-board…...
USD Stays Strong Despite Weak GDP and Tariffs
Outside of an occasional shock like around Liberation Day, it is not clear that the tariffs had much impact in the FX market. $USD held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing GDP and tariff ruling. What's...
Japan's Low Inflation Reflects Weak Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation rate comes in at 1.53%/yr in January, BELOW its 2%/yr target. JP’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.56%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of~6.07%/yr, a rate consistent with JP’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Dollar Stays King, No Signs of Dethronement
My take on the US dollar: "The DOLLAR IS KING, and it's going to REMAIN KING. It's hard to knock a king off his throne." https://t.co/txOJ9KZ8Qw
Argentina's 32% Inflation Fueled by Runaway Money Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. NO SURPRISE. AR’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 9.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 5%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL....
Silver Near 10‑Month Streak Amid $2T Liquidations
$2 trillion in forced liquidation blamed on chinese traders, margin hikes & Warsh pick, silver is 33 cents away from completing its 10th consecutive monthly candle (if it were monthend) #forex #XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/SOjpd04sAO