Oil Surge Boosts
The decision tree for tonight - when markets open - follows from oil. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil rose 40%, which drove the Brazilian Real and other commodity exporters in Latin America a lot stronger. It weighed on oil importers like Turkey. https://t.co/AOkYSZh8kj https://t.co/wo8IsRZvlS
Gold Poised Near $6k Amid Iran‑Israel Conflict
Gold closed Friday at $5,278. The all-time high is $5,595. That's $317 away. The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is retaliating. Iran vows to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is the biggest safe haven trigger since 2020. Fib extension...
Asian Session Opens in 7 Hours, Risk Integration Begins
Just under 7 hours until the Asian session open and the markets can start working some of this risk into market exposure and hedging
EU Digital Euro Stalls Amid Offline‑only Push
Brussels proposed a digital form of cash that could be used both online and offline. Navarrete, by contrast, is pushing for an offline-only model. More delays. Can Europe break free of Visa and Mastercard? MEPs stall digital euro https://t.co/SLW3jTmnrB
Oil Spike Lifts Brazil Real, Sinks Turkish Lira
When markets open tonight, oil prices will spike, which will help oil exporters and hurt oil importers. In Q1 '22, oil prices spiked almost 40%. Single biggest beneficiary - by far - was Brazil's Real, which rose 20%. Turkish Lira...
Brazil's Oversized Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Apex Trade Fund Faces Largest Drop, Sunday Open
This is the biggest drop we've had in a long time from @ApexTradeFund - It's not even close. This Sunday open. Be ready. 👀🔥
Emergency Sunday Trading Session at 6 PM ET
⏰ Emergency trading session on Sunday You won't want to trade the market open alone Join us at 6pm ET / 23 GMT to trade Gold $GC Nasdaq $QQQ $NQ Oil , Forex 👇 You wont' want to miss it. Subscribe and hit...
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Supply Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Weak Dollar Often Worsens, Not Fixes, Trade Deficit
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...
Turkey's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
Early Months May Launch the Monsoon Framework
It’s early. VERY early. But the months ahead could set the stage for the early beginnings of the Monsoon thesis/framework. Time to start thinking about it. IYKYK @RaoulGMI
US-Israel Strikes Trigger Global Market Volatility
🚨 The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is firing back. Missiles hitting Gulf states. Markets open Sunday night. Oil. Gold. Nasdaq. Forex. Everything gaps. I'm going LIVE Sunday 6PM ET to break down what this means for your trades. Don't...
Bond Rally Threatened by Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Markets Rebound Fast After Geopolitical Shocks—Buy the Dip
Markets have survived every geopolitical shock in history Pearl Harbor took 307 days to recover. Kuwait took 189. 9/11 took 31. The average? 47 days Today the US and Israel struck Iran. History says buy the dip - but how long...
Synthetic EURUSD Shows Weak Dollar Reaction Today
Looking at the intraday chart of the synthetic EURUSD - derived through Bitcoin proxy - limited Dollar response to today's headlines https://t.co/Pcdz3RvyC7
Turkey's Lira Faces Pressure Amid Iran War Uncertainty
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
Gold +22%, Silver +31% Amid Global Chaos
The chaos doesn't stop. There's been Greenland, a yield spike in Japan, private credit ructions and AI. Now it's Iran. Easy to miss the forest for the trees and that's precious metals. Gold is up 22% this year. Silver 31%....
March Markets Driven by Existing Forces, No Policy Shifts
March 2026 Monthly: March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and...
The #1 Mistake All Traders Keep Making
The #1 Biggest Mistakes traders make Jakub shares his insights with me @iFXEXPO @jakub_ceo @fortraderscom
DXY Near 3‑Year Low, Breakout Needed for Confirmation
$DXY - Potentially made a 3 year cycle low in January. February was only a small up month so it's not confirmed yet. A breakout above 100.39 is needed to confirm that the 3 year cycle low is in. A...
Egypt's Oversized Money Growth Fuels 12% Inflation
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Global Growth Cools, Central Banks Pause; Short EUR/USD
Macro: global growth cools; central banks pause. Key factors: easing inflation, mixed earnings, USD strength. Risks: policy missteps, China slowdown. Trade: short EUR/USD. 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Next Week’s Trading Outlook: Key Markets, Themes, Risks
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ
AUD/USD's Six-Week Rally Meets Multi-Year High Test
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD 6-Week Winning Streak Faces Major Test at Multi-year Highs https://t.co/OQ8pT6aY7y $AUDUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/v6yDD2nwcL
Hot PPI Fails to Dent Fed Cut Expectations
The hotter-than-expected headline PPI this morning didn't curb Fed rate cut expectations. The implied cuts through 2026 from Fed Fund futures has edged up a bit. $DXY hasn't taken the fundamental bait for a bearish wedge break though: https://t.co/CgVJLLvWs8
PBOC Allowing Gradual RMB Appreciation, Not Stopping It
The claim by @robinbrooks_j & others that the PBOC is intervening to stop the RMB's advance strikes me as a misunderstanding. This is the 7th month of RMB gains. If PBOC is intervening to "stop" CNY rise, it is not...
Patience Pays: Trade Hits 2‑Month High, Still Uncertain
#Druckenmiller once said we mostly sit all day reading, researching & waiting. My "ideal trade" finally broke to 2-month high plenty of waiting. Does it have legs? https://t.co/m8fErQ5Bm0 #forex #GBP
Low Treasury Yields Revive MMT Enthusiasm Flood
Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%... https://t.co/ANQCCAXJms
Strong Current Accounts Can't Stop Taiwan, Korea Currency Weakness
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
China's Central Bank Eases Dollar Purchases to Curb Yuan Rally
China Central Bank Moves to Tame Yuan Rally—China’s central bank on Friday moved to combat a rally in the yuan by making it cheaper for importers to buy dollars and sell the Chinese currency. @RebeccaYFeng https://t.co/uVx5NuUmDE
PPI Spikes 0.8%, Ending Rate‑cut Hopes
PPI just printed 0.8% vs 0.3% expected. Let that sink in. Producers are paying MORE. That cost gets passed to YOU. This is the hottest PPI in over 6 months and it just killed every rate cut fantasy on Wall Street. Buckle up —...
Norwegian Krone Leads Safe‑Haven Surge Amid Debt Monetization
The debasement trade is about markets searching for safe havens from debt monetization. That's driving up safe haven currencies. Norwegian Krone just took the lead (orange), while Swedish Krona (red) is in second place. Swiss Franc (black) is in third... https://t.co/hjA5jhrvvn...
Bloomberg Overlooks Key Current Vs. Financial Account Split
An interesting article from Bloomberg -- but one that misses an important part of the real story by following the recent advice of CATO and the WSJ oped page and ignoring the classic split in the balance of payments between...
US Producer Prices Surge Past Expectations in January
US January Producer Price Index prints at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected - previously 0.4% m/m Core #PPI at 0.8% vs expected 0.3% - previously 0.6% m/m Core PPI at 3.6% vs 3.0% expected - previously 3.3% y/y/ Headline PPI 2.9% vs expected 2.6%...
Yuan
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
Real Yields Plunge, Not Breakeven Inflation, Despite AI Hype
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
Gold's $5,000 Level Marks Pause, Not Sell‑Off
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
Emerging Markets Resume Currency Interventions Amid Falling Dollar
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
Cool PPI Print May Lower Yields, Boost Tech
February 27, 2026 📊 Insight: PPI at 8:30 = inflation read for producers. Cooler print could push yields lower and support growth/tech. Hot number likely pressures rates higher and weighs on high-multiple names. Watch $DXY and 10Y reaction first 5–10 mins. Economic...
PBOC Eases FX Forwards, Stalls Yuan Rally Amid USD Consolidation
$USD consolidation continues, but PBOC eliminates reserve requirements for fx forwards and makes it easier for banks to provide liquidity offshore. Stops yuan rally for the moment. Denmark calls snap election. Greens win in the UK. https://t.co/hLRGJsDgY2...
Global FX Volatility Fades as USD Signal Narrows
In line with our narrowing USD Signal, Global FX Vol continues to fade here https://t.co/sY7hmVcxe3
PayPal’s Bitcoin Play Forecasted PYUSD’s Payments Shift
#FlashbackFriday In 2020, I said PayPal’s Bitcoin move wasn’t about Bitcoin at all, but about positioning for a very different payments landscape. PYUSD has since filled in the blanks. https://t.co/IryLfol0XZ Yesterday’s future. Progress optional. #Stablecoins #Paypal #PYUSD
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.1%/yr in January, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/7NNKGjeDXe
Weaker Dollar Raises Import Costs, Boosts Export Appeal
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
China Cuts Shorting Costs, Drops 20% Reserve on Yuan Forwards
China Moves to Tame Yuan Rally by Slashing Shorting Costs—Chinese banks won’t be required to set aside a 20% risk reserve on forward currency trades https://t.co/myGXkMjp6X https://t.co/myGXkMjp6X
USD/CHF Stuck Near 2011 Low, Breakout Looms
Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Five-Week Standoff at 2011 Close Low- Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/aQbUe8s8GA $USDCHF Weekly Chart https://t.co/IEGfXTQuEv
Canada’s Inflation On Target, Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
Canada's January inflation (CPI) is ON TARGET at 2.29%/yr. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.02%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
DXY Forms Rising Triangle, Bullish Break Possible
That is a very distinct - 'pretty', if you will - rising triangle on the $DXY Dollar Index. Resistance is also the midpoint of the Nov-Jan bear leg of this descending channel. Tech pattern more often resolves with a bullish...
Integrating Sentiment Surveys and Trends Into Market Analysis
Latest episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast discusses market sentiment. @MWellerFX and I touch on sentiment surveys, market-based positioning and looser measures (eg headlines, search trends) - and how to integrate it into your market analysis: https://t.co/B06D4S71N8