Yen Poised to Gain Whether War Eases or Escalates
Yen could be setting up for a win-win type environment. 1. War deescalates, oil down, dollar down. 2. War escalates and everything goes to shit, capital flight from US assets, flight to Yen safe haven. It's interesting to me because there's a tight invalidation if wrong.
DXY Near Peak as Metals Rise, USD Fundamentals Falter
Was looking for this dollar rally upon Iran invasion but now it is at a critical juncture. Metals showing life could be signal that this is about as high as DXY gets. Despite this squeeze higher, fundamentals for USD and...
Watch Fed Rate‑Cut Signals After NFP Miss
A fundamental thread to keep an eye on after the NFPs miss: the implied FOMC rate cuts through Fed Funds futures overlaid with the $DXY Dollar index. CPI and PCE next week. FOMC rate decision the Wednesday after next https://t.co/Rslg81c0CC
Feb US Jobs Miss Marks Largest Downside Since 2021
US #NFPs dropped in February by -92K vs +70K expected and +126K added in January. This was the biggest downside 'surprise' (-162K) since the pandemic shutdown (specifically Aug 2021) https://t.co/HgS3Y8EA9t
Stagflation Signals Emerge as Oil Rises, Jobs Push Cuts
At a time when markets are pushing back Fed cut odds because of the oil spike, seeing jobs data that demands rate cuts leaves everyone unhappy. Stagflation, directionally. Not there yet but pointing that way.
Iran Could Spark Global Oil Crisis via Hormuz
I’ve been on the bearish end of the spectrum on Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are a big chokepoint. Iran just has to blow up one oil tanker to cause a global crisis. Thanks to @SoumayaKeynes for having me on...
Risk‑off Sentiment Keeps Dollar Flat Despite Weak Payroll
If things were normal, the Dollar should be falling sharply right now. We just got a -1.9 standard deviation surprise on payrolls, which should be weighing on USD. But nothing about today is normal. We're in a massive risk-off and...
February Jobs Miss Sharply, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
February Non-Farm Payrolls prints at -92K vs expected 58K - previously 126K Unemployment ticks up to 4.4% vs expected hold
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Cutting Cycle Ends
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Iran's Threat to Oil Tankers Could Trigger Market Crash
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will...
War Fuels Market Turmoil, Dollar Nears New High vs Yen
The War Continues to Roil the Markets: The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen,...
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
Leading Indicators Signal NFP Beat, Live Trade at 8:10
NFP Surprise? The data certainly says so. Here are the "leading indicators" for the US jobs report that I follow and it overwhelmingly calls for a beat We'll be trading it live with you at 8:10AM ET Join us on X or...
Kazakhstan Central Bank to Deploy $350M Into Crypto‑Linked Funds
NEW: Kazakhstan’s central bank is set to invest up to $350M from its reserves into the crypto sector. The strategy targets crypto-linked equities and funds, not direct purchases of digital assets. The program could start in April or May. https://t.co/RlEGwWKYzs
Dollar Poised to Surge Past 100 on DXY
The dollar looks like it wants to rip higher through 100, doesn't it? $DXY $USD https://t.co/ScJLmOqxcb
Korea's Rare Mix: Booming Stocks, Huge Surplus, Weak Won
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
Swedish Central Bank Urges Cash Hoarding Amid Payment Risks
Swedish central bank urges public to horde cash in case of payments disruption https://t.co/ckNfNUQsve "The Riskbank is currently working on improving the possibility of making offline payments by card to strengthen resilience." https://t.co/yLYmWsDoh0
Fed
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
US Blocks India’s Currency Advantage, Mirrors China Policy
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
Dollar Index May Hit Record as Other Currencies Collapse
This paints a potential scenario for how the dollar index could return to its all time high. Not bc it is great. But bc all other fiat will fail first.
RBI Dollar Sales Trigger Rupee's Biggest Asian Surge
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
Japanese Stocks Surge; Fund Gains 6.7% Amid Yen Drag
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
Dollar Rises, Treasuries Fall: Safety Flight Redefined
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
Patience Beats Premature Entries: Trade With Smart Money Precision
99% of traders enter too early. Smart money waits for the precision entry. Price taps the order block, liquidity is taken, and the reaction begins. This is the difference between emotional trading and strategic trading. If you understand SMC and ICT concepts, the...
USD Breakout Tested at January High Ahead of NFP
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
Sudan's Pound Plummets 28%, Ranks 6th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 28% over the past year. https://t.co/6WS2fKoH6r
Global USD Demand Fuels Stablecoin Profits, Threatens Banks
One of reasons banks are freaking out about stablecoins, even though stablecoins don't pay yield, is bc there is more demand for USD outside the US than there is inside the US. And that means billions (no...trillions) of profits going...
Loonie Gains as Middle East Turmoil Boosts Petrocurrency Appeal
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Fed Rate‑cut Odds Dip as ECB Hike Odds Surge
Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve...
Four Indicators Hint Upside Surprise on US Jobs
EVERYONE'S BEARISH ON NFP - THEY MIGHT BE WRONG ⚠️4 leading indicators say the US jobs number could surprise to upside Meanwhile $NQ $ES are bleeding and $CL is surging. Here's my breakdown of it all👇 https://t.co/tPjJsIC76Y
Dollar Surge Reflects Short‑term Risk Aversion, Not Lasting Strength
The Dollar (blue) has risen sharply above rate differentials (black). That's the best indication this week's Dollar spike is about short-term risk aversion and repatriation flows. Totally short-term and doesn't invalidate Dollar weakness later this year... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75 https://t.co/EXSOCllmRB
Billions in Options Set to Expire at Key Strikes
Options for ~2.2 bln euros at $1.16 expire at 10 am ET Options for ~535 mln at $1.3350 expire then Options for ~$355 mln at CAD1.3650 also expire DTCC listed
Iran Conflict Won’t Boost Dollar as Rate Gap Narrows
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....
Dollar Surge Is Temporary Asset Repatriation, Not Reserve Decline
This week's rise in USD confounded those who said the US is losing reserve currency status. That's NOT what it's about. Americans repatriate assets when bad shocks hit, like in 2008, 2020 or 2025. A very short-term thing. The Dollar...
ECB's Wunsch: Euro Gains Strength Through Expanded Global Role
Euro could strengthen with a bigger global role, ECB’s Wunsch says https://t.co/Qg36hBmWVe via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/LrN4SLJExv
Qatar LNG Shutdown Tightens Supply, Pressures Emerging Markets
Oil and gas price shocks hit emerging markets more than developed. Not to mention South Korea and Japan are major buyers (read: dependent). BOJ inflation-induced rate hike can be pulled forward from my Q3 projection to Q2. $USDJPY
Dollar Rally Signals Stronger USD, Potential Market Shifts
The Dollar’s Climb: What It Means Now $DXY $USD $UUP My thoughts based on the charts on @stockcharts https://t.co/zhE0dQKw6t https://t.co/JXMstMoSwD
Energy-Driven Inflation Drowns US‑Iran Conflict, Fed Cut Hopes Slump
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...
Multi‑billion FX Options Expire Thursday Across Major Currencies
Notable Thurs FX option expirations: 1.9 bln euros at $1.1685 $1 bln at JPY157 GBP535 at $1.3350 $305 mln at CAD1.3650 $335 mln at MXN17.50 $755 mln at BRL5.21 DTCC listed https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
China’s Composite PMI Hits 3‑Year Low, RatingDog Peaks
The February PMI updates came across the wires earlier today - the final readings for much of the developed but first reading for China. Notably, the Chinese gov't's own composite dropped to a 3-year low while the 'RatingDog' surged to...
US Services Surge to Highest ISM Since Oct 2024
US Service sector activity further accelerated in February according to the ISM data. The 56.1 reading was an unexpected improvement and highest since Oct 2024. The employment and price components also improved (higher and lower respectively). Good US economic update https://t.co/Pvofc3DgPk
Exclusive Macro Breakdown of Today's Rally Unveiled
I just posted a detailed macro breakdown of today's rally on @SliceApp This is where I share the deeper analysis, market correlations, macro trade ideas, and lessons I don't post anywhere else Join the community 👉 https://t.co/2RO8ANwj2x https://t.co/TKe1RoxUOt
Markets Wobble as Oil Spikes; US Vows Tanker Protection
For a few hours yesterday morning, markets looked very scary. Brent was going vertical, USD was rising like crazy and S&P 500 was plummeting. The US calmed things down by promising to insure and escort oil tankers, but one Iranian...
Markets in Nervous Consolidation After Extended AP Equity Rout
Nervous Consolidation Featured after the Asia Pacific Equity Rout was Extended: The dollar is trading a little softer today, but the tone is one of nervous consolidation. The market is digesting reports that Iran has reached out to negotiate the...
Markets Consolidate Amid APAC Slide, Japan Threatens Intervention
Nervous consolidation is the main feature in the capital markets after Asia Pacific equities extended their slide. $USD is mostly softer but in yesterday's ranges. Japan's MOF threatened intervention. See https://t.co/24YmyiETAN https://t.co/XmEx257iS8
Swiss Inflation Low, Money Supply Growth On Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate at 0.03%/yr is at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0-2%. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) is within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr at 5.3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/wDVH5hwQyz
Exploring Money's Past, Present, and Future on Themelia
I had a thoroughly enjoyable conversation with @Jessica Ellerm on the @ThemeliaApp podcast. If you’re interested in the past, present and possible future of money, you might enjoy the full discussion: https://t.co/B7i9sKF81G https://t.co/4uk0xAjmVe
USD/INR Spikes Past 92, Warning of Inflation Surge
Usdinr crossed 92, a very quick move from the 90s. This plus crude will hit inflation in 6.months if it isn't controlled