AUD Hits Two-Year High on Looming Rate Hike
$AUD reached its best level since June 2022 amid heightened expectations of a rate hike next week. $USD more broadly mixed. PBOC lows USD fix again. US CPI seems dated but will show floor before the war. IEA proposing SPR release. See https://t.co/k0fpJ6jbBR https://t.co/G8anzd9mOm
ECB Faces Three Paths: Hold, Modest Tighten, Panic Hike
We see three scenarios for the ECB. 1) They hold their nerve "in a good place". 2) They pull fwd the tightening that has long been priced into 27/28 and take the depo rate to the higher end of neutral...
ECB's Kazimir Signals Imminent Rate Hike, Ready to Act
🇪🇺 Not only did @KazimirPeter signal a strong ECB hawkish bias, but he said that every meeting should be alive after March. *ECB'S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT "I don’t want to speculate about April or...
Iranian Rial Jumps 17% After US‑Israeli Strikes
Since the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran just over 10 days ago, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 17% against the USD. THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU ATTACKS ON IRAN = SURPRISING STRENGTH IN THE RIAL. https://t.co/BPJtg4MvGr
Brazil's High Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Tillis Hopeful Fed Hurdles Cleared for Warsh Chair Nomination
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday he was hopeful that issues surrounding the Federal Reserve would be resolved, allowing Kevin Warsh’s nomination as central bank chair to move forward. https://t.co/7hUfth4Lf9
Key CPI, US Budget, and T‑Note Sale Drive Tomorrow
Not an overly active global macro calendar for tomorrow, but an important one. Top of the list is the February #CPI release. Will also watch that US monthly budget statement and 10-year t-note sale. Japan has some worthy data as well...
Dollar's Downtrend Persists; Rallies Likely Temporary
The long-term outlook for the US dollar hasn’t changed. We remain in a major downtrend — something worth remembering during brief rallies like the one we just saw. The dollar is still sitting at a critical level, and these bouts of strength...
Milei’s Inflation Surge Outpaces Even Hanke’s Growth Benchmark
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
USD/JPY Surge Pauses, Yen Breakdown Risk Rises
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Three-Week Surge Stalls – Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/Jpdp8iqepv $USDJPY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/bYSgW6uDag
Live US CPI Trade: NQ, Gold, Forex Opportunities
Trade US CPI LIVE tomorrow with Boris and Sam starting at 8AM ET / 12 GMT @fxflow They'll be hunting for opportunities in NQ, Gold and Forex https://t.co/9c2DFZTDGK
GBP/USD Rallies, Eyes March High Breakout Risk
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Three-Day Rally Tests March Range High- Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/W09S823voH $GBPUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/KXMx8hxaQR
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 87%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 87% against the USD over the past year. VENEZUELA'S PATH TO RECOVERY = REPLACING THE BOLIVAR WITH THE DOLLAR. https://t.co/rbalL5aTfh
Dollar Stalls Near 99.50 as Risk Aversion Eases
The Dollar stallout around 99.50 aligned to channel, some Fib standing and of course the curb on severe risk aversion around oil prices. That said, not a lot of pullback in the softened rate cut expectations around the FOMC's 2026...
GBPUSD Rally Hits Key Resistance Ahead of CPI
Short video update on the $GBPUSD levels British Pound Rally Faces Major Resistance Into CPI Data https://t.co/JFEq01EOzu
Dollar Bounce Signals Buying Opportunity, Risks for Commodities
If you know where the dollar is going, you know where global liquidity is going. $DXY just bounced hard off 96.65 multi-year support and is pressing into the $100 resistance zone. Momentum is improving with higher lows and rising RSI. Today’s pullback looks...
Europe's Energy Weakness Undermines Euro Compared to Peers
Europe's energy vulnerability is contributing to the euro having a worse war than its peers, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/D2PXb56w3z via @opinion https://t.co/aIh2l1QXUy
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 28% After Iran Tensions
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
Italy’s Giorgetti Warns ECB Against Hasty Rate Hikes
Italy’s Giorgetti cautions the ECB against the temptation of raising interest rates https://t.co/CasNsOy0KU via @Alemrome https://t.co/z3ATeFnSqp
Spain Targets 2028 Digital Euro to Cut US Dependence
USD stablecoins guarantee a digital euro; now we have even more proof of this from Spain: “Europe needs a sovereign payment architecture,” and “the noticeable increase in US stablecoin-based financial intermediation increases the urgency.” Spain Pushes for 2028 Launch of...
Brazilian Real Surges, Echoing Post‑Ukraine Shock
In the last two trading days, the Brazilian Real has outperformed every other EM currency. This parallels price action after Russia invaded Ukraine. The same terms of trade shock that took $/BRL to 4.50 then is happening again now. Prime...
China’s Low Inflation Mirrors Slower Money Supply Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.3%/yr in February, BELOW its 2% target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 40% Amid Oil Surge
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Energy Shock Forces ECB Rate Hikes, Traders Bet Higher
Energy shock rewrites the ECB’s rate path as traders bet on hikes https://t.co/PhHe7FAJb5 via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/FvJg4WW5Ei
Japan Lifts YCC; Iran Targets UST Market Vulnerability
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
Iran War Doubles Oil Moves, Halves Dollar Impact
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
Hormuz Reopening Could Trigger Sharp Dollar Decline
The Dollar (blue) and rate differentials (black) are massively diverging. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens - even if only a little bit - we'll see a very large drop in the Dollar. We're still very much in a regime...
SNB Urged to Act Now to Weaken Franc
The SNB must be in the market ‘right now’ to weaken the Swiss franc, Sarasin’s Junius says https://t.co/0XhL08pNpx via @bbenrath https://t.co/IVfxoI9Dv0
Buy Gold Above $5200 as Dollar Strength Persists
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Prolonged Hikes Risk Pushing Economy Into Recession
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Central Banks Stay Hawkish
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
G7 Reserve Coordination Eases Market Shock, Dollar Firm
Reports G7 will discuss coordinated release of strategic reserves is helping to stem the worst of the markets' reaction to the weekend developments. Still, USD is mostly firmer, rates higher, and equities lower. See https://t.co/4OVnPnHNHB https://t.co/PN5lizMKsV
Central Banks Miss Inflation Targets Five Years, War Delays Cuts
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
Markets Overreact: Pricing Unlikely Rate Hikes Across Europe
Markets pricing in rate hikes from the ECB, the BoE... and the SNB. You gotta be kidding me.
Largest EUR/USD Gap in 11 Months Usually Bounces Back
$EURUSD gapped down -0.6% over the weekend. That is the largest bearish gap in 11 months. Of the last four gaps lower of this size or greater, the pair mounts a quick and significant recovery https://t.co/1MB9YzNdvG
SARB MPC Schedules Five Additional 2026 Meetings
𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 🇿🇦 The SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet 𝐅𝐈𝐕𝐄 more times in 2026. Bookmark these dates 🔻 🇿🇦2̶9̶t̶h̶ ̶J̶a̶n̶u̶a̶r̶y̶ ( Unchanged ) ✅ 🇿🇦26th March 🇿🇦28th May 🇿🇦23rd July 🇿🇦23rd September 🇿🇦19th November
China's CPI Surges, Deflationary Trend Reverses
1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. https://t.co/gpaBJ53yli
Hedge Funds Bet Heavily Against US Dollar
‼️Hedge funds are EXTREMELY BEARISH on the US Dollar: Net dollar positioning of hedge funds and other asset managers is down to -$18.9 billion, near the most bearish level in at least 3 years. Hedge funds are getting caught off guard. 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
Commodity Exporters Rebound as Brent Spikes, EM Currencies Rally
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
Israel's 1.8% Inflation Matches Golden Money‑supply Growth
Israel’s inflation is 1.8%/yr. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.1%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/CWltetUlYU
Mexico's Inflation Aligns with Hanke's Golden Money Growth
Mexico’s inflation is 3.8%/yr. Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 9.2%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/jQ05GUvmPW
Geopolitical Tensions Meet Key US Inflation Data This Week
Iran war headlines will be in focus this week but US inflation will also be front and center. Here are the reports to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US -CPI -Personal Income/Spending -UMich Sentiment Index -Durable Goods -Housing Data 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ & GE IP -GE Trade 🇨🇦 CA -Jobs -Trade
Oil Hits $90, Yet Dollar Weakens—New Trend
Something really unusual happened yesterday. While oil was pushing above $90 per barrel, the Dollar fell. That's very significant because we'd normally expect to see the oil spike drive the Dollar higher. We've transitioned back into a weak Dollar world... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75...
Dollar Weakness, Not $100 Oil, Drives the Trade
In the space of one week, we've gone from everyone saying oil prices would barely move to now everyone falling over themselves predicting $100 oil. Whatever. I don't think that's where the trade is. The trade is in the Dollar,...
Japan's Debt Limits Yen Defense Amid Market Shocks
In trade-weighted terms, the Yen is lower now than mid-2024 when Japan intervened to prop it up. Japan's high public debt is a terrible weakness. When unexpected shocks come along - like war in Iran - its hands are tied...
Bolivia's Inflation Soars to 19.6%, Dollarization Needed
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Fed Faces Dual Threat: Rising Inflation and Unemployment
The Fed’s biggest fear has always been having to choose between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Friday’s employment report brought that dilemma a step closer. “Let’s not overreact to one month’s numbers, but an environment in which inflation is rising and...
Gold Positioning Flushed; Long GLD and GDX
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
War-Driven Oil Spikes Hint at Further Upside, Dollar Softens
In the 10 days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Brent rose 32%. We're now up 25% since the war with Iran began, which - to me - says there's more upside. Given all this, the Dollar is trading soft...
USD/CAD Faces Repeated Resistance, Breakdown Risk Rising
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Rejected at Resistance Again – Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/WgcEZNsTLi $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/vHGLydn1EX