Fed's 'Neutral' Decision Sparks Market Sell‑off
This Wasn't a Neutral FED Meeting. Here's the Truth. The Fed left rates unchanged. Everyone expected that. But the reaction told a completely different story. Stocks🔻dropped. Gold🔻dropped. Dollar climbed ⬆️ This was not a boring meeting. Not even close $SPY $GLD $DXY https://t.co/28xpHI13Ju
Powell Delivers One of Central Banking’s Finest Press Conferences
In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.
Powell Says Now Is Time to Abandon SEP
Powell embraces the SEP to observe that there was "a meaningful amount of movement" toward fewer cuts and then later leaves the SEP by the side of the road. If there was ever going to be a time to skip...
Markets Rally as Fed Turns Less Hawkish than Expected
Last year markets sold off on less dovish than expected Fed. Today they find relief on less hawkish than expected.
FOMC Raises Growth and Inflation Forecast, Unemployment Steady
#FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) -Upward revision to Growth -Unchanged on Unemployment -Upward revision on Inflation 2.7% on headline & core PCE https://t.co/knSXUzsR5d
FOMC Holds Rates, Keeps Forward Guidance Steady Amid Iran Uncertainty
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Fed Holds Rates, Core Inflation Forecast Rises
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
FOMC Likely Holds Rates, Eyes Updated SEP Forecasts
FOMC rate decision incoming. Despite the President's interests, the rate decision itself is fully expected to end in no change. That puts the full interest on the updated forecasts of the SEP and any errant remarks Powell makes in his second to...
Precision, Not Prediction, Drives Consistent Smart Money Trades
Precision beats prediction. This is how smart money enters the market clean structure, liquidity sweep, and a perfect FVG entry. Stop chasing trades. Start waiting for confirmation. Discipline + Strategy = Consistency. If you understand this setup, you’re already ahead of 90% traders. #forex #trading...
Powell’s Hawkish Tone Risks Market Crash Amid Gulf Tensions
Today is very dangerous for Powell. If he sounds hawkish, markets might tumble given what's going on in the Persian Gulf. Next thing you know, Trump could be attacking the Fed like in Dec '18. Back then, the Fed capitulated...
Inflation Surge Puts Fed Meeting at Crisis Crossroads
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
10‑Year Yield Falls, Yet 10y10y Hits Record Risk Premium
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
Hope Boosts Risk Appetite Ahead of BoC, FOMC
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings: There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz...
China’s State Banks Shift Forward FX Book Post‑2010
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
Fed Governors Finally Challenge Chair, Splitting Along Politics
A longstanding taboo around Fed governors dissenting against the chair has been broken. Recent fractures have fallen along political lines. On what that means for the institution—and for the next chair. https://t.co/7S1YacOpoW
Fed Rate Call Sets Direction for Stocks and Dollar
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
Tomorrow's FOMC Meeting: Most Critical Decision Yet
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one
Smart Money Waits for Liquidity, Not Market Chasing
Smart Money doesn’t chase the market — it waits for liquidity. Price tapped into the Fair Value Gap after grabbing liquidity and then delivered a clean bearish move. This is the power of ICT & Smart Money Concepts: understanding where institutions...
Dollar Index Slides 1% From Weekly High
US Dollar Index $DXY $USD $UUP now 1% off the week's high.. back-to-back bearish sessions @stockcharts https://t.co/hy3tIXMCbo
Dollar's Dominance: The World’s Reserve Currency Forever
The U.S. dollar will be the world’s reserve currency until the day you die. Everyone wants the U.S. dollar 🇺🇸💵 Everyone ✋
USD/CAD Nears Key Resistance, Breakout Risk Rising
Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Tests Pivotal Resistance– Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/QS7PNM8IKo $USDCAD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/SQnqfzZO43
Dollar Holds Firm as Fed Decision Looms
Quick video update on the $DXY levels ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision. U.S. Dollar Strength Meets #Fed Uncertainty Ahead of Critical Rate Call https://t.co/0jeM9epKXi
Fed Decision Drives Market Moves: Stock & Dollar Strategy
The Fed is about the move the markets - Here's the trading plan for stocks and the US dollar 👇 https://t.co/kWQkl5Peg1 #FOMC #Forex https://t.co/xIaWfeqjPc
Traders Bet Fed Dovish; Stocks Rise, Dollar Falls
🚨 TRADERS JUST TIPPED THEIR HAND BEFORE FED The market is already telling us what to expect from the Fed - and smart traders are paying attention. Stocks are rallying and the dollar is pulling back ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. That's...
RBA Narrowly Hikes; Trump‑Xi Summit Delayed; China Curtails Fertilizer
RBA Hikes in a 5-4 Decision, Trump-Xi Meeting Postponed, Beijing Tightens Restrictions on Fertilizer: There have been three developments to note. First, President Trump’s trip to China has been postponed by at least a month. The White House linked it...
RBA Hike Ahead,
3 Developments: RBA hike, and mkt favors another one by mid-year. Trump-Xi meeting postponed by at least a month. Reason? War. Beijing tightens exports of fertilizer components. Oil firm but in yesterday's range. USD quiet. See https://t.co/QYsOxDPAlE...
RBA Hike Hints at Tighter Path for Single‑mandate Banks
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets suspect this telegraphs what's on the cards for other single-mandate central banks, such as the Bank of England and the ECB. While a hike isn't...
RBA Raises Rates to 4.1% as BOJ Stalls
The RBA hiked its benchmark rate to 4.1%. That is the first major central bank this week of a long list. If you want to pit it against the most prominent carry counterpart and contrast against rate of change, it...
RBA Leads Rate Hikes, Others Remain Silent
All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks. https://t.co/JKCGcBPwIG
Fed Faces Tension Over Near‑Term Rate Cut Projections
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Yen Slides Below Mid‑2024 Low; Intervention Won’t Halt Decline
The Yen has fallen below its previous low from mid-2024. This even though we're within two months of the NY Fed "rate check," which temporarily lifted it. As long as Japan believes in FX intervention, it's in denial on debt...
Bessent Mirrors 1992 BOE: Fighting USD Collapse Over Oil
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
Billions in FX Options Set to Expire Tomorrow
Notable FX options expiring tomorrow: 1.6 bln euros at $1.15 $720 mln at JPY158.40 A$430 mln at $0.7100 and A$485 at $0.7045 $685 mln at BRL5.20 $550 mln at CAD1.3645
USD Overbought, Potential Correction Boosts Commodities
US Dollar $USD About to correct? Far above moving average ribbons. Dollar down = Bullish commodities. https://t.co/BLfBbDOCMp
DXY Bears Inside Day, Mirrors VIX Retreat
The $DXY Dollar Index has put in for a bearish 'inside day' from a technical analysis perspective. Happens to align to the $VIX retreat - though the 10-day correlation is waning. Is the Dollar more aligned as a safe haven,...
Middle East Conflict Ends Expected BoC Rate Cuts
The Stage Was Set For Bank Of Canada Cuts Later This Year: That's All Gone Now Today's CPI Report would have provided cover for the BoC to cut its key rate at the end of April or June but the War...
Higher Rates, Free Market, Not Fed Cuts, Win
There's going to be a lot of people complaining this week when the Fed doesn't cut rates. Let them. It's the right decision. In fact, interest rates should be much higher than where they are today. The free market should...
Dollar's Rise Is Modest; Will Fall Post‑war
The Dollar has risen against the G10 (lhs) and against EM (rhs), but - once you factor in that this shock is at least 3 times as big as Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - it's trading quite soft. We're...
Prepare for the Week, Trade Live with Us
📆First we will prepare you for the week ahead 📈Then we will trade it LIVE Join US https://t.co/VB3DW4Bub5
Warsh Delay Helps Him, Harms Powell Amid Oil Shock
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Falling Metals Signal Strengthening Dollar Trend Over Daily DXY Fluctuations
Falling prices of precious metals are a signal that the dollar is getting stronger overall, even though today the DXY may be down a little. What really matters is the trend and not a day in the life of a...
Central Banks Pause Rates Amid Oil, Middle East Risks
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
Trump Urges Powell to Cut Rates, Fund Global Rebuild
Trump wants powell to lower interest rates and keep printing dollars to fund rebuilding Gaza, Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico and Iran https://t.co/5SBPUcPukV
USDJPY Near 160; Intervention Unlikely Amid Rising Yields
$USDJPY near 160, going to be tough for an intervention to be effective with the winds pushing yields up thanks to oil (as goes the case for any major energy importer at the moment)
Qatar, Kuwait Will Dump US Assets Amid GDP Collapse
If their GDP drops 14%, do you think Qatar and Kuwait will: a) Slash government outlays (thereby risking domestic unrest), or; b) Sell USTs & US equities “until their hands bleed” to raise USDs to buy needed goods to try to...
Why a Fed Rate Cut Now Signals Trouble
My week ahead article: It Would Probably Be a Bad Sign if the Fed Cut Now – Here’s Why https://t.co/iRgDsoYaOg https://t.co/HWPl79e8Ez
Global Economy Faces Growing Complexity and Uncertainty
Please find below the links to my weekly look at what has become a much more complicated and uncertain situation for the global economy and markets. linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-shp3e/?trackingId=vXKBwDM3QxqdFHY2kfbOrQ%3D%3D&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_detail_base%3BXcJdDTIXTiGfbxaVzWx6xA%3D%3D https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-372?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web #economy
Oil Shock Boosts Dollar, Weakens Euro and Asian Currencies
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
EUR/USD Plummets 5% to Seven‑Month Low, Tests Support
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Crashes to Seven-Month Lows- 5% Drop Exposes Pivotal Support https://t.co/xPrn5Ir44G $EURUSD Monthly & Weekly Charts https://t.co/G3WNmBzkgW
Patience, Structure, and Liquidity Drive Smart SMC Trades
Smart Money Concept (SMC) Buy Entry 📈🔥 Patience and precision create the best trades. This setup shows a clean SMC buy entry with confirmation from BOS, FVG, and Order Block, aligning perfectly with market structure. Understanding liquidity and waiting for the right moment...