Russia's Inflation Spike Tied to Excess Money Supply
Russia’s inflation comes in at 6.0%/yr in January. That's ABOVE RU's 4%/yr target. RU's M2 money supply is growing at 10.6%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 8.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY.
ECB Overhauls Euro Liquidity to Strengthen Currency Appeal
ECB revamps euro liquidity offer to boost the common currency’s appeal https://t.co/w17qKKKWLo via @jrandow https://t.co/FlhSjhqFkD
Yen Poised for New 2025 Lows Amid
The Yen will keep falling in trade weighted terms in 2025 and make new lows. Two reasons: (i) Japan remains in denial on the scale of its debt and what's needed to fix this; (ii) the Yen will be falling...
Global Data Week: FOMC Minutes to RBA Jobs
Buckle up! Its going to be a VERY Busy Data Week ahead👇 🇺🇸 US -FOMC Minutes -Q4 GDP -Empire State & Philly Fed 🇪🇺 EZ -IP -ZEW -PMIs 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -Retail Sales -CPI -PMIs 🇯🇵 JP CPI & GDP 🇨🇦 CA -CPI -Retail Sales -Trade 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PSI -PPI 🇦🇺 AU -RBA MINUTES -JOBS -PMIS
Markets Price 2.5 Fed Cuts as Curve Flattens
After jobs and CPI, mkt has ~2.5 Fed rate cuts discounted this year. 2-10 yr curve flattened back-to-back weeks for first time since Oct. 10 yr yield 3-month low. Be prepared for next week. See...
Warsh Fed Expected to Slash Rates 100bps, Dollar Falls
My forecast is for the Warsh Fed to cut policy rates by 100 bps in the 4 meetings after he takes over (June, July, September, October) ahead of midterms. Markets are moving in this direction, but still price only 63...
Markets Discount Fed Cuts Amid Japan Election, Tariff Uncertainty
Week Ahead: SCOTUS Decision on Tariffs? 8 Fed Officials Speak as the Market Discounts almost 65 bp of Cuts this Year: Last week began with the LDP's stunning victory in Japan. However, rather than sell-off as the market expected, the...
Dollar Decouples: US Growth Rises as USD Falls
Great piece by @katie_martin_fx in the @FT on the correlation break happening for the Dollar. As Trump leans more and more on the Fed, positive data surprises like payrolls no longer lift USD. The US will boom this year. But...
Anti‑Trump Bias Skews Dollar and Inflation Forecasts
A lot of economic commentary is inflected by anti-Trump sentiment. That's why so many forecast the Dollar would go into a death spiral last year (it didn't) & why there's so much focus on inflation overheating now (it isn't). Yesterday's...
Swiss Inflation Near Zero as Money Growth Slows
Switzerland’s inflation rate is on the low end of its TARGET RANGE at 0.03%/yr. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) has been growing below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.40%-6.40%/yr since 2020 & is now only at 4.58%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Yield Drop Signals Benign CPI, Boosts Gold Prices
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
Argentina's Survival Hinges on IMF Loans, Not Reserves
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
S&P 500 Mirrors US M2‑to‑GDP Ratio Trends
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
Assume BRICS' USD‑bypass Plans Are Real; Doubt USD Stability
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...
Market Prices Accelerating Fed Rate Cuts Through 2026
Notably, market-implied FOMC cuts through 2026 have been increasing. Through February, Fed Fund futures have priced in another -14bps of cuts for the year - and now the most dovish outlook after CPI since Dec 3rd: https://t.co/NZF2YksrWV
CPI Cools to 2.4%, Fed Eyes Jobs as Unemployment Falls
US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
CPI Cool, but Data Gaps Mask True Inflation
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since...
Inflation Stays Low as Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
US's CPI inflation rate comes in at 2.4%/yr in January. The US money supply (M2) has been growing BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting the Fed's 2%/yr inflation target, since April 2022. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
Bloomberg's Russia Dollar Rumor Likely Misleading, Says Hanke
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t
January 2026 Defies Post‑COVID Seasonal Inflation Surge
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
Inflation Misses Again; Labor Market Holds Real Power
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
The 5ers Introduces Overnight Futures Prop Trading
🚨 @the5erstrading releases details for @The5ersFutures On my panel at @iFXEXPO they said big things were coming… Only futures prop to allow overnight holds Looks like the evolution is here. What do you think - strong proposition or not competitive enough?👇
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
CPI Dip on Friday the 13th Sparks Inflation Uncertainty
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...
USD Firms Ahead of CPI as Euro/GBP Options Expire
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of the US CPI. Over 5 bln euro options at $1.1850 expire today. Session low so far is slightly below there. GBP530 mln options at $1.36 expire today. Session low so...
ECB Staff Push for Tighter Oversight and Regulation
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation
Three Consecutive CPI Misses Signal Rate‑Cut Surge
Last CPI missed expectations 3 months in a row. If it happens again today, rate cut bets explode and the dollar dumps. I'm trading it LIVE at 8AM ET. Don't watch from the sidelines 👇 https://t.co/gAw05zLlQ8
Russia's Dollar Return Threatens Metals Rally
🚨 THIS COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR METALS AND RISK ASSETS Big news emerged yesterday: Russia is seriously considering returning to dollar-based settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with President Trump. For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been...
ECB Still Assessing Full Effects of Euro Appreciation
ECB has yet to see full impact of euro appreciation, Kazaks says https://t.co/qqisWsfsJD via @aaroneglitis @Skolimowski https://t.co/TTDxRGmgMY
CBRT Hikes 2026 Inflation Outlook, Policy Stays Too Loose
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: In the first Inflation Report of 2026, CBRT Gov. Fatih Karahan revised the end-2026 inflation forecast from 13–19% to 15–21%. Turkey's monetary policy remains TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/EC5mR04dt6
Turkey's 30% Inflation Threatens Global TV Drama Boom
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: In January, Turkey's official inflation was reported at 30.7%/yr. That's SIX TIMES HIGHER than the CBRT’s 5%/yr inflation target. Among other things, Turkey’s sky-high inflation is squeezing its famous TV dramas, which draw crowds of 1 billion+ worldwide. https://t.co/nr4JytEGeV
User‑centric Design Key to CBDC Resilience, Says IMF
"CBDCs... most significant resilience potential lies in user-centric design features, including offline functionality, flexible front-end solutions, and programmability for crisis response" Not my words. The IMF. https://t.co/aauwvtxTG8 https://t.co/O4sEWC2AN2
Higher CPI May Keep Fed From Cutting Rates, Threatening Stocks
Are stock markets in trouble if US CPI data points the Fed away from bolder interest rate cuts? #stockmarkets #CPI #Fed #DOLLAR #macro #trading https://t.co/2Ij9Tr0kWM
Inflation‑adjusted Dollar
A pet peeve. Talk about current dollar weakness. Numbers here are through December -- but in December the broad inflation adjusted dollar was stronger than in 01 or 02, the peak before 22-24 1/ https://t.co/c7KU9z1C6t
CPI Near 5‑Year Low: Trade Nasdaq Move Live
🔴 TOMORROW: US CPI drops at 8:30 AM Core forecast at a near 5-year low. Hot print → Nasdaq dumps Cool print → Rate cuts back on the table Either way, there's a trade to be made. Join me LIVE at 8AM ET to...
Gold Surge Signals Capital Shift, Not Risk‑On Rally
Record gold prices + a weakening dollar don’t scream “risk-on.” They signal global capital reallocation and rising demand for insurance amid lingering policy uncertainty. Hedging behavior is increasing even as equities grind higher.
KC Futures Hold Bull Run Midpoint Near
Don't do this to me...I need my coffee. KC futs have tentatively held up the midpoint of the 2023-2025 bull run (around 290) https://t.co/9M9FIFrM6A
Billions in FX Options Expire at Key Rates Tomorrow
Notable FX option expirations tomorrow: 5.25 bln euros at $1.1850 $1.8 bln at JPY152.00 GBP530 mln at $1.36 https://t.co/JP6hOX0qdC
GBP/USD Poised for Breakout After Coiling Below Resistance
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Coils Below Resistance- Breakout to Set the Trend https://t.co/YCL1AwKRyY $GBPUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/VuEneX3o2g
Gold Dip After NFP Profit‑take, Still Bullish Long‑term
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) just dumped over a 1000 pips after yesterday's NFP , but what just happened ? 👇 Netanyanho signalled towards de-escalation in the middle east with a potential deal b/w Iran & US This optimistic headlines lead to a...
Europe Needs a True Safe Asset for Financial Sovereignty
Europe’s best bet for financial sovereignty is a true safe asset https://t.co/RSxLjLtB5u "A European safe asset would complete the long-overdue EU financial architecture: a savings and investment union... and a credible euro-denominated stablecoin market." https://t.co/LgAAIH6tb6
China Eases Capital Controls as Asset Buildup Accelerates
China usually liberalizes its financial account when the PBOC (now the state banks) are accumulating assets at too rapid a pace, and it wans the dollar risk to be taken by others ... 1/2
East Asia Drives Surging Trade Surplus, Currencies Remain Cheap
Bingo And the global trade surplus (ex pharma) is now primarily in China, Taiwan and Korea ... Important qualification to the now standard argument the dollar has gotten weaker (which is true primarily if the clock starts at the end of 24,...
EURCHF Plummets to Record Lows, Yield Gaps Irrelevant
Another FX PSA: $EURCHF has extended its generational slide lower to fresh record lows. Yield differentials don't matter at all here apparently: https://t.co/cHMUxde914