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Supreme Court Ruling Won’t Boost Dollar Amid Growing Policy Chaos
The rollout of reciprocal tariffs last April caused an alarming and sharp fall in the Dollar, so why isn't today's Supreme Court ruling causing the Dollar to rise? The April fall in the Dollar was about policy chaos in DC,...
GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows, 200‑DMA Test Ahead
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows – Can 200DMA Hold? https://t.co/yX3huN7zHS Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ZKGEjVWqUH
Inflation‑Adjusted Dollar Down 10% Yet Remains Strong
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Weak US Data, Traders Brace for Geopolitical Risk
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
Core PCE Inflation Ends Year Elevated, Near 3%
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Core PCE Near Target; Fed Cuts Still Unlikely
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
US Underlying Domestic Demand Grew 2.4% in Q4
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
Inflation Surges, Growth Slumps: White House Economist Stumbles
Higher than expected inflation and lower than expected growth. what an ugly day for white house chief economist hassett and Trump narrative. Do not worry, CPI is out next week and that's easier to manipulate.
Q4 GDP Misses, Core Inflation Surges Above Forecast
Q4 GDP prints at 1.4% vs expected 3% - Previously 4.4% December Core PCE at 3.0% vs Expected 2.9% - Previously 2.8% y/y Core PCE 0.4% m/m vs Expected 0.3% - Previously 0.2%
Strong US Payrolls Can Depress Dollar, Boost Euro
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...
Dollar Holds Firm Amid Looming Tariff Decision and US Data
Tariff Decision Day?: The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first...
Strong US Data Must Decouple to Trigger Dollar Decline
The US is outgrowing everyone else and that'll stay that way into this year's midterms. So, for the Dollar to fall, you need a correlation break whereby strong US data cause USD to fall. This is how the Dollar traded...
USD Firming Ahead of Data, SCOTUS Tariff Ruling
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of US data and possible SCOTUS decision on POTUS use of emergency powers to levy broad tariffs. Mkt tensions over possible US-Iran conflict seems to have eased for the moment but have not...
Fed Governor Reveals Hidden Dollar Liquidity and Stablecoin Strategies
THREAD 🧵I know everyone is very excited about aliens this morning, but I ask you, is it really as exciting as super wonky insights on dollar liquidity plumbing, Federal Reserve balance sheet policy, and stablecoin statecraft? I think not. I...
December PCE Inflation Hits Multi‑Year Highs
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
IMF Estimates Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Roughly 19%
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
91 Days, Two Rate Calls, Then Warsh Takes Over
Only 91 days and two more rate decisions (Mar 18 and Apr 29) before Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends (May 15th). Then it is the Warsh era...
Fed‑Treasury Coordination Must Be Transparent, Not Secret
Fed independence was a 20th century virtue. Fed inter-dependence is a 21st century necessity. The question was never whether the Fed and Treasury coordinate-it's whether that coordination happens in the dark or in the light The American people deserve monetary transparency...
Grey Swan Risks Amid Busy Global Macro Calendar
While I will keep an eye out for grey swans catalyzing (Iran and Supreme Court's decision on tariffs principally), the global macro docket picks up through Friday. Top event risk includes: Japan CPI; February PMIs; Mexico and Canada retail sales; US...
AUD/USD Rally Pauses Near 2023 High, Streak Threatened
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rally Stalls Near 2023 High – Four-Week Streak at Risk https://t.co/srtBKcRq3k $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/oGQK6Jc1uV
IMF Must Incorporate Lagged RMB in China Surplus Forecasts
A very important point The IMF needs a new methodology for forecasting China's external surplus, one that explicitly includes the RMB (with lags)
Dollar Stuck in Congestion, Faces Resistance Near 98.5
The Dollar is in a broader technical congestion pattern without a clear and persistent fundamental drive. As such, I tend to pay more attention to technicals. Looking at the $DXY daily, there is some notable resistance (50 SMA and '50%...
EUR/USD Tests Yearly Open Support, Decision Ahead
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Slides into Yearly Open Support – Decision Time https://t.co/SHnGwyQMrX $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/2Uu9a1yink
Protect Profits, Skip Trading on Volatile Friday
🚨 5 Reasons I’m NOT Trading This Friday 🚨 1️⃣ Weekly Target = HIT ✅ My goal is +100 pips per week We banked +132 pips in just 2 days Discipline > Greed Once the target is hit, I go into protection mode 2️⃣ U.S. Supreme...
Miran Says Stronger Labor, Goods Inflation May Raise 2026 Dot
Stephen Miran, long viewed as the Fed’s arch dove, tells The Peg that firm labour data and a pickup in goods inflation could justify revising his 2026 dot higher. https://t.co/qevsjpOlwA
German ECB Critics Exit Over Fiscal‑Support Shift
Only actions matter, not words. The actions: Germans who stand for separation of monetary and fiscal policies (Jens Weidmann, Axel Weber, Jürgen Starck) left the ECB due to its drift into fiscal support for high-debt countries. The ECB is losing...
Stablecoin Wars: Factions Battle for USD Dominance
Four months ago we released "Empire by Code" which laid out a thesis for the rise of USD Stablecoins. We have now released “Stablecoin Wars" which deals with the various factions vying for control of this new system. Both can be found...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 27%, Ranks 6th Worst
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST currency. The Sudanese pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE SUDANESE POUND & REPLACE IT WITH THE US...
China’s Hidden Subsidies Dwarf IMF’s 4% Estimate
FT: “The IMF estimated that China spends about 4 per cent of its GDP subsidising companies in critical sectors, and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.” This is a start, of course, but just...
Dollar Climbs vs G10, Stays Weak vs EM
The Dollar is up sharply in recent days. But this rise is only happening versus the G10 (blue). The Dollar remains near its recent lows versus EM (black) and that's what you want to watch for future Dollar direction. We're...
North America Leads Dollar Decline, Europe Holds Firm
FX Market Awaits North American Leadership: The North American market took the dollar lower on Tuesday, and there was little follow through selling. Yesterday, the dollar as bid in North America and rather than resist, European more than Asia Pacific…...
Mixed Currency Moves Amid Rising Iran War Risk
Hello Traders 📉 Stock futures🔻Iran war risk grows, Russia complains about Cuba oil blockade 🇺🇸 USD 🔄 mixed ahead of jobless claims, Philly Fed & trade 🇪🇺 EUR 🔻 despite stronger current account 🇨🇦 CAD ⬆️ supported by higher oil prices 🇬🇧 GBP 🔻 slides...
China's Auto Export Surge Hits EU Markets, Tariffs Powerless
China's auto exports went vertical in Dec. '25. All those cars go to EM (red), not the G10 (blue). That complicates EU efforts to protect its car makers. China's export surge is decimating EU export markets. There's not much EU...
Wall Street's Bitcoin Bet Fails as Hedge Thesis Crumbles
Bitcoin Won Over Wall Street and Now It’s Paying the Price Wall Street may invest in BTC but that doesn't mean they are "hodlers" with the same religious zeal shown by many who profess to "never sell." -Bitcoin's price has...
Euphoria Unwinds, Quality Assets Outshine Speculation
I have mentioned this chart a few times in the past, but it does really go to show just how extreme things got the last few years. The chart is SPX/(UNRATE^2)*USIRYY*USINTR Unravelling things after extreme euphoria is never an easy process. As things...
Fed Minutes Omit 2% Inflation Target Date, Signaling Uncertainty
One more note on the Fed minutes: Sometimes it's interesting what they don't say. Last year at every meeting until December, the staff forecast called for inflation to return to 2% by 2027. In December, the forecast pushed this back to...
Packed 24‑Hour Macro Calendar: Japan, US, China Data
The global macro docket for the next 24 hours of trade pics up. Japan has machinery orders, mfg activity survey, a 1-year and 20-year JGB auction, Jan CPI. Walmart and Alibaba report earnings. US and Canada trade balance. PBOC rate setting. Start...
Debt-Based Money Ensures Perpetual Debt, Devalues Assets
Bc of the interest component & exponential function of a debt based monetary system, there is never enough money to pay off the debt. And bc debts are always paid (either by lender or borrower), if they didn’t debase the...
Dalio Predicts US Will Print Money, Devalue Currency
Ray Dalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund, on the national debt: "When countries essentially go broke, what they do is... print money, devalue the currency, and create an artificially low interest rate...that is the way the [US] will do...
Lagarde’s Early Exit Fuels Concerns over ECB Politicization
The ECB should be apolitical. But now President Lagarde says she’s leaving early. According to people “familiar with her thinking,” this is so Macron can pick her successor before the French Presidential election in April 2027. Not very apolitical at...
USD/CAD Nears Yearly High, Breakout Risk Rises
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Advances Toward Yearly Open – Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/LswuuI4iVW $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/AfSOwTDtR3
Fed Minutes Reveal Larger Faction Demanding Higher Cut Threshold
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
China’s Outward FDI Surpasses Inward, Gap Widens
Since the 2010s and BRI, Chinese FDI has matched or exceeded inward FDI, but now a really big gap is opening up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DcgBB3hzww
Half‑Dollar Target Holds If Trendline Remains Intact
We will touch half dollar as long as we don’t break down below this trendline. This trendline will act like a staircase as long as the price doesn’t fall below it, it will keep moving upward.
Geopolitical Tension Drives Gold Surge—Position Now
Gold is on the move🔥 As tensions in the Middle East rise and Iran escalates, markets are reacting and gold is back in focus When uncertainty rises, gold shines ✨ Big moves could be ahead. The question is… are you positioned? Trade Gold with...
De-Dollarization Undermines US Military Financing Power
De-Dollarization Threatens US Military Power The dollar’s role in global trade is shrinking. As it loses value, I see us losing influence and even military strength, because our military depends on financing powered by the dollar. The markets are already showing...
Successor Must Be Independent, Pro‑Europe After Surprise Resignation
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says his successor must be independent and committed to Europe after his early resignation gave President Emmanuel Macron a surprise opportunity to pick the next central bank chief https://t.co/VVGP1D9Dj6 via @WHorobin https://t.co/rmqeTU4qJ7