Ceasefire Sparks Asian Rally; Vietnam Gains EM Upgrade
Good morning, I woke up to the best news ever - we got a two-week ceasefire that has lit Asian and risks assets that have been languishing on the closure of the Strait. The Korean won is rallying the hardest, followed by THB and the AUD. For Vietnam, it got another good news - it has been upgraded to emerging market status from frontier in September that will bring about USD6bn passive flows.
Rare DXY Gap Appears in 23‑Hour Futures Market
Very rare event in the 23-hr futures market where you rarely ever see gaps. Look at the #DXY tonight #forex $UUP $FXE #DXY https://t.co/vOGAm4AaUO
Russian
Rus, AD, Peso - RS leaders on the weeklies. of course, most all the weeklies look swank w this move (!) https://t.co/WhyaID8PTk
DXY Slides Post‑ceasefire, H&S Neckline at 99.50
The $DXY has dropped after the ceasefire news. There is some debate that can be had over whether it is a break with follow through. There is a H&S pattern there on the 4hour chart. Neckline around 99.50 https://t.co/uKdc2tAE8J
Jefferson Delivers Most Hawkish Fed Speech Since 2023
According to Fedlock, today's speech from Fed Governor Jefferson was his most hawkish since 2023 https://t.co/rgs6erEO5l
Dollar Exists to Guard Capitalism, Not Just Cover Deficits
There are so many layers to the dollar story that transcend conventional market economic dynamics. Until investors realise this I do believe they will be caught out by narratives that serve political agendas not reality. Crucially, most “end of the dollar”...
IMF Flags Rising Imbalances, Revives Currency Manipulation Label
Happy to see the IMF has noticed the expansion of global current account imbalances -- And guess what, the IMF seems to have rediscovered the idea that currency manipulation can drive imbalances (though manipulation has been renamed "macro-industrial policy" ......
ZiG Delivers Price and Exchange Rate Stability by 2030
The PEOPLE LOVE THEIR ZiG…. The Zimbabwe Gold brought Price Stability & Exchange rate Stability… By 2030, with President @edmnangagwa in charge, even the doubting Thomases will be fully embracing the ZiG… https://t.co/YS86xPMcjN
Market May Bottom Out in May Amid Sentiment Shift
This is good news and we may bottom out in May if this continues - makret has been incredibly complacent so sentiment shift shoud help correct that.
Dollar Slides Below Crucial 99.05 Confirmation Level
Weekly Dollar line chart (blue line is 5 SMA, only important when trending)...below 99.05 key confirmation level. https://t.co/XNW1syuTPa
Independent Inflation Gauge Correctly Predicted Turkey's CPI Decline
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's March official CPI inflation is 30.8%/yr. That's down from 31.5% in Feb. Today, I measure Turkey's inflation at 20.9%/yr. Since my measure leads the official one, I anticipated that the official number would do just what it did. It...
Global Shift: Gold and Yuan Rise as Dollar Recycling Declines
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
Market Success Lies in Reaction, Not Prediction
This is very true I would just add that not only can you never "do" anything to the market but the only intelligent action in the market is reaction rather than prediction https://t.co/oOyO02Go7K
Dollar Flat vs G10, Krona Drops on Soft CPI
On the Edge of the Abyss: The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are...
Zimbabweans Celebrate New ZiG Notes, Restoring Currency Pride
Zimbabweans are LOVING the new ZiG notes… And yes, they got them from ATMs… And Yes, President @edmnangagwa returned the pride & dignity of Zimbabweans by re-introducing the local currency…. ED2030 Woye 🔥🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/eykvrLwJN7
US Deadline, Ceasefire Odds Sway Risk Assets, Dollar
The US deadline draws close. It hangs over market activity. It remains binary. A ceasefire will boost risk assets and weigh on the greenback. The opposite is true, as well. Meanwhile, undaunted, the PBOC set the...
Fiscal Strain Drives Rupiah to Record Low
Rupiah at Record Low of 17,080. It’s not just the war. Polisi fiskal memberi bebanan. Between 2025 and April 2026: •Rupiah jatuh 5% in 2025 •Deficit 2.92% of GDP, widest in several years. •Foreign investors sold off bonds •Bank Indonesia (BI) buys govt bonds...
Rand as Shock Absorber: Trade Opportunities Revealed
South Africa operates a floating exchange rate. That simply means the Rand's value is determined by supply and demand in global markets. 𝗗𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 "𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿". What Lesetja Kganyago is really telling you is...
Fed Rate Cut Looms, Inflation Cools, Bull Market Awaits
Fed's getting ready to cut rates as inflation cools down. Markets love this combo - cheaper money usually means risk-on mode. Going live at 9am NY to trade this bullish setup with our DOTS indicator showing clear signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/23feho9DD6
Swiss Inflation Low, Money Supply Growth on Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate is 0.1%/yr. That's at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0%-2%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) just came in at 5.0%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Petrodollar Death Rants Are Wishful, Not Insightful
🧵There’s been an acute breakout of death of the petrodollar thought pieces over the weekend. This should have discerning investors thinking twice. Not about the dollar, however. About piling into an obviously crowded and extremely unoriginal perspective that is mostly...
Iran's Moves
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
Emotions Up, Profits Down: Discipline Beats Impulse
Emotions high = profits low. Liquidity taken. Structure shifted. Imbalance respected. The setup was perfect… discipline wasn’t. Save this before your next trade. #forex #smartmoney #icttrading #tradingmindset #priceaction
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid War, Defying Claims
BNE Intellinews claims that the Iranian rial is "losing ground as military strikes hit infrastructure across the country". WRONG. FACT: Since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs the USD. https://t.co/6tlVgFd2Lt
Buy DXY on Break Above 100.20 as USD Rises
Macro: USD strengthens as global stress persists. Key factors: robust US data, rising oil and yields. Risks: Middle East tensions and higher inflation. Trade: Buy DXY on a clean break above 100.20; targets 101–103. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights:...
Oil Spike Unwinds Carry Trade, Triggers XRP Settlement Crisis
Oil spikes trigger the reverse carry trade unwind. Japan raises rates, US Treasuries flood back, markets take losses across the board. Tether depegs. Exchanges go illiquid and need XRP to settle. Shane Ellis theory puts $500 XRP from Bitfinex alone...
EU Tried Pricing Iraqi Oil in Euros, US Halted Independence
Many on X seem to forget that Europe tried to separate from the US 26 years ago, when the EU arranged for Iraq to sell oil in EUR instead of USD (Source: CNN Int’l👇) The EU would have been independent of...
Innovation Requires Production: Rethink USD Reserve for Reindustrialization
“To innovate, you must make.” -INTC CEO Andy Grove, 2011 The reality is we cannot and will not reindustrialize unless we change USD reserve status structure to a system with a neutral reserve asset instead of USTs; it’s a fundamental double-entry...
Rupee Rally Stalls, Marks Biggest 5‑day Drop Since 2022
The Indian rupee's rally seems to have run out of steam. $USDINR ran a 5-day retreat (rupee a rally) through Friday and notched the biggest 5-day drop since Nov 2022. Put in for a bounce today... https://t.co/qewdcUneMg
Japan's 10‑Year Yield Peaks, Yen Slumps to 160
Japanese Government 10-Year Yield Highest since 1997, Yen at 160 despite Intervention Threats, But Bond Vigilantes Still Dead. Inflation and deteriorating yen pushed the BOJ into hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own https://t.co/sF7g5sRsaq https://t.co/XX7yIUKRhS
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid US-Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran 5 weeks ago, the Iranian rial as APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA (READ: PROPGANDA MACHINE) REMAINS SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/9n42ihPYE9
Weekly US Inflation Updates Vs. Fed Forecasts Begin
Tomorrow, with mtks back to full liquidity, we will start a run of US inflation updates for the week. We start with the NY Fed's Consumer Inflation Expectations reading, then Thursday we have the Fed's preferred PCE deflator and Friday...
Dollar's Global Grip Shows Cracks, Not Collapse
Is the dollar’s global dominance foundation starting to crack or just facing a few termites? 🐜💵 I sat down with former Fed & Treasury insiders @steven_kamin & @sobel_mark to unpack threats to dollar dominance, fiscal policy, Fed independence,...
Ceasefire Triggers Oil Drop, Dollar Decline, EM Rally
A ceasefire is coming. Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble and the Dollar will fall sharply. The latter is up on safe haven inflows to the US. All those inflows will unwind very...
US Hormuz Deadline Extended, Markets Shift to Dollar, Oil
Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum: The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and…...
Cease‑fire Hopes Lift Market, but Negotiators Remain Doubtful
Hope of a cease-fire between US/Israel and Iran has captured the imaginations of the holiday-thinned market today. The negotiators themselves reported are not optimistic. $USD gave back earlier gains and is posting a possible outside down day. See https://t.co/Km1zBLaVJG...
Price Action Reveals Truth; Opinions Spin Stories
Price action tells the truth while opinions tell stories. - Ghost of the Pit https://t.co/K1tiyiMWDu
Debt to Ourselves Just Excuses Unlimited Money Printing
When an argument is made that "Our debt doesn't matter because we owe it to ourselves"...that is code for "we can print the money and just debase the currency"...
Data Deluge, yet Iran Conflict Remains Market Driver
Another week of heavy data but don't be mistaken Iran War will run the show 👇 🇺🇸 US - ISM Services -CPI -Fed Minutes -Durable Goods -Personal income/spending -UMich 🇪🇺 EZ -Retail Sales -PMI Rev -GE Trade & IP 🇨🇦 CA -IVEY -Jobs 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PMI 🇦🇺 AU Retail Sales
Forward Yield Spike Signals Looming Global Debt Crisis
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
Policy Moves, Not Data, Drive Oil, Dollar, Gold Trends
On yesterday's live stream, I discussed which oil prices to watch, why the Dollar failed to rise on Friday's strong payrolls and the large drop in gold holdings of Turkey's central bank, which is entirely a function of the decision...
RBI Bans Rupee Shorting Tools, but Impact Doubtful
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is stepping in to try to slow the rupee’s slide. By restricting derivatives and other tools traders use to SHORT the rupee, the RBI is trying to suppress bets AGAINST the currency. THE RBI'S ENGAGED...
ECB's Next Meeting: Possible Rate Hike or Hold
Sleijpen says next ECB discussion will be a rate hike or hold https://t.co/nsySCHZ2Ld via @patrickreports https://t.co/QVU1clfZB5
Dollar Is Collapsing—Avoid Holding It, Says Expert
I've had such a wonderful conversation with Matthew Piepenburg. He fully explains why you shouldn't be in the Dollar, as the Dollar is collapsing entirely. Watch his explanation here: https://t.co/ijsmOzj4kx
Turkey's Gold Reserves Fall to Defend Lira Peg
There's 3 central banks that publish weekly data on FX reserves and gold holdings: India, Thailand and Turkey. Only Turkey has seen a sustained drop in gold holdings (blue) that have been used to lift FX reserves and defend the...
Live: Oil Prices, Weak Dollar, Central Bank Gold Sales
I'm doing a livestream this morning at 9 am (ET) to talk through: (i) the different oil prices floating around and how they all fit together; (ii) how the Dollar is trading weak, with yesterday's payrolls another example; (iii) central...
Global Markets Eye War, CPI Data, and RBI Caps
Week Ahead: Still mostly about the war. US and China report March CPI. China's PPI may have emerged from deflation. Canada reports March jobs data. RBI is relying on cap controls to support INR, not...
US Jobs Data Fuels Dollar Rise, Stocks and Bonds Dip
Stocks and bonds may fall again while the dollar gains after deceptively upbeat US jobs data. #NFP #Stocks #Dollar #Macro #Trading #IranWar https://t.co/bSlTNo7Fkg
China's Money Printing Matches
Everyone focuses on U.S. money printing. But China has quietly been just as aggressive—if not more.
Egypt's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Excessive Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 13.4%/yr. That’s above its inflation target of 3-7%/yr. Egypt’s money supply just came in at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....