Currencies Social Media and Updates
Currencies Social Media and Updates
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EMAIL DIGESTS
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Order Block Model The market moves with structure, not noise. Identify the right Order Block, wait for a clear Break of Structure, and enter with patience. Trade less. Trade smart. #OrderBlock #SmartMoney #PriceAction #ForexTrading #tradingstrategy
📈Chart Patterns Ranked by Accuracy % Which patterns work 80% of the time? This is a GOOD one 👇 Make sure you follow/subscribe to @proptraderedge for more great tips like this
My @BrookingsInst blog on whether US reserve currency status is eroding. There’s no sign the fall in the Dollar is accompanied by foreign reserve managers bailing on the greenback. There simply aren’t any viable alternatives, including the Euro… https://t.co/U189pIWHJ4
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Within the continued consolidation of the FX market, there are two standouts: 1) After being the only G10 currency that fell yesterday, the yen is the only one higher today. 2) the RMB's gains have accelerated. https://t.co/AiTduO3fl9 https://t.co/BxiHf6en8T
The Bank of England’s plan to cap stablecoin holdings is sparking an industry revolt BTW. £5,000 and £20,000 for individuals BTW. £1 million to £10 million for businesses. https://t.co/taO9by7gd2
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...
Ever take a perfect setup just to watch it go nowhere? Then it moves right after you exit? That's not bad luck - it's bad timing. Learn how to fix that https://t.co/fjBDMYb0AE https://t.co/8b9qHMu9bF
This is a thread that only Adam Tooze, a few international economist and a couple of very well paid trade lawyers are likely to enjoy … The basic question is what did Congress mean back in 1975 when they wrote about...
Germany joining the chorus call for China to allow the RMB to rise -- a big change from 15 years ago, when Germany didn't think China's currency management was its problem https://t.co/1J5Z0lrxma
Most EM currencies are managing to rally strongly against the Dollar so far in 2026. Turkish Lira is falling and the worst performer. This despite annual carry of over 30%. The fact that Lira is still falling is a sign...
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not...
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
The Dollar is tumbling. Not against the G10, where it's basically stable, but against EM, where it's making new lows almost every day. One of the main beneficiaries of all this is the Brazilian Real, which is the strongest versus...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST CURRENCY. The rial has depreciated by 43% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = IN REAL BIG TROUBLE. https://t.co/FmVN6Cuf8I
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = NO ACCOUNTABILITY. https://t.co/UAqAIjbHdP
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
The market doesn't trade the same all day. The NY trading day has 5 distinct sessions: → Early NY Open → NY Open → NY Close → Asia Open → London Open Some are continuation trades. Some reversals. Do you agree that market...
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
You can begin factoring national interests and power factors into your preferred free market analysis or you can be a victim of it. https://t.co/bDXsO4Jd8A
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by over 50% against the USD in the past year. KIM JONG UN'S ANTICS = CURRENCY CATASTROPHE. https://t.co/mODtL8ocdu
JPY reversing weaker HUF gaining (on negative polls for Orban) CNH continues to rally consistently
There's lots of buzz about 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4%. But when you look at this yield vs US peers - hedging those yields back into US Dollars - the US picture isn't nearly so sanguine. The days when...
The Yen is heading back to where it was before the "rate check" from the NY Fed. Intervention doesn't work, especially when the underlying issue is a massive debt overhang and politicians who prefer denial to taking hard, but needed...
Yen and JGBs Sold on New BOJ Nominees While Japanese Stocks Rally to Record Highs: The dollar was initially sold during President Trump’s State of the Union Address. However, against most of the G10 currencies, it remains within the well-worn...
Turkey had sustained reserve losses towards the end of last year (blue), even though Lira was falling and USD was weak. That's a sign that depreciation pressure is substantial, a reflection of the large current account deficit. Same old story...
The main development today is the reaction to the two dovish nominations to the BOJ board. The yen and JGBs have been sold, while Japanese stocks raced to record highs. Note there are many large option FX...
"Mine is bigger than yours" "Mine is better than yours" "My Central Bank appointee is more dovish than yours" says Japan PM #Takaichi to #Trump after she picked 2 #reflationist candidates #forex $USDJPY #USDJPY
Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the ECB before her term ends, paving the way for Klaas Knot to succeed her as president, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists https://t.co/rjUbI1zZMG via @jrandow https://t.co/aOgFWMclPG
Bank of America show the biggest positive allocation to #euro assets on record in an impressive global rebalancing. A net 22% say they hold a lower-than-benchmark allocation to US, from just 6% at end of 2025. The backlash appears to...
so Japanese markets suffered deflation for decades at the hands of a dovish BoJ... and the markets have had a historic rally on the back of rising rates and yet somehow the market thinks dovish BoJ nominations is bullish... got it
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
Stocks & the dollar hang in the balance amid tariff chaos and possible war with Iran as President Trump delivers his State of the Union speech. Are the markets in trouble? #SOTU2026 #Trump #tariffs #Iran #market #stockmarkets #DOLLAR #Macro #Trading https://t.co/PVSRBaRIjl
The next bull market may not be American. Dollar weakness changes leadership. If the dollar is in a structural bear, global diversification stops being optional. Capital rotates. Narratives lag. Read the full framework: https://t.co/RJWIidZeAI @DynamicAlphaSol
The U.S. money supply has soared nearly 5x since 2000, pushing the cost of living significantly higher — yet most people still prefer dollars over gold & silver. That means the precious metals bull market is still very young,
Stablecoin rules in the UK are being finalized, and are at risk of preventing the UK from being globally competitive in the digital economy. For example, the Bank of England is proposing a cap on stablecoin holdings for individuals and businesses. The...
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
Notable FX option expirations tomorrow: 2.9 bln euros at $1.18 $2.85 bln at JPY156 A$2.8 bln at $0.7000 and A$2.5 bln at $0.7100 $470 mln at CAD1.37 GBP450 mln at $1.3550 $1 bln MXN17.29-MXN17.30 Listed on DTCC https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 86% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA NEEDS DOLLARIZE NOW. https://t.co/HI0TlTBYyv
🚨 Trump State of Union Tonight. The Yen Is Collapsing. Pay Attention Dollar surging across the board Yen crashed 1% overnight as Japan's PM fights the BOJ on rate hikes Dow broke below the 50 SMA for the first time this year -...
Last week, we published a report titled “How Is China Rewiring Its Trillion-Dollar Surplus?” in response to media reports that Chinese authorities have urged banks to curb their exposure to the US Treasury market. This regulatory signal is highly investment-relevant,...
Turkey's "core" current account deficit (blue) has widened back out to levels that exceed where it was before the 2018 "sudden stop" and the catastrophic post-COVID years. Turkey is back in the danger zone. Rebalancing can't happen with Erdogan in...
Yen Slides on a Double Whammy: The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer against the most of the G10 currencies but largely confined to its recent ranges. The yen is the notable exception. Beijing announced it is sanctioning more Japanese...
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx
