ECB Cuts QE by Half, Sheds €66B in March
The Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak. Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in Q1 https://t.co/zqAmuWvEUe https://t.co/0PHGyudB6u
Weak Chinese Economy Fuels Outward Credit Hunt
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
Markets Poised at Critical Levels Ahead of NY Open
Markets are sitting right at those make-or-break levels before the NY open. Everyone's watching to see which way we break. Tomorrow we'll be tracking these key zones live with the DOTS indicator to catch the moves as they develop. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
Oil Shock Inflation Temporary, Fed Should Keep Cutting Rates
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
Gold, Not Currency, Will Dominate Future Reserves
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
Brazilian Real Leads Global Gains, Heralding New LatAm Cycle
The Brazilian real is outperforming every major currency in the world year to date. I was told this could never happen — but here we are. Welcome to a new LatAm cycle, folks. Exciting times ahead for this region. https://t.co/tvtFhSgOxD https://t.co/6dbPKm7I3L
Thailand's 12‑Month Deflation Linked to Low Money Supply
Thailand's March CPI is -0.08%/yr. That's the 12th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its money supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Brazil's Real Yields Match Hypothetical 12% US Rates
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
Wedge Break Signals Clear Tech Market Direction
This is the kind wedge pattern break that offers clear resolution for tech observers... $DXY Dollar Index: https://t.co/MwWVvohhYo
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
France's $15B Gold Pull Signals Global Reserve Shift
My remarks w/ @DailyCaller on the French withdrawing $15B in gold from the US: “The risk of having foreign reserve assets frozen in the US came up when the US & its allies froze Russian central bank assets in Feb. 2022.” I anticipate...
When Debt Outpaces Income, Fiat Currency Weakens
Throughout history, all fiat currencies eventually face the same pressures. When debt grows faster than income and money needs to be created to fill the gap, the value of that money changes. This isn’t a prediction—it’s a pattern that has repeated...
US Market Depth Keeps Dollar King Despite Global Turmoil
I spoke to @SeanPmathews about KING DOLLAR: "Sanctions, wars, and tariffs make it easier for the dollar's challengers. But the US is the biggest, most liquid capital market in the world, bigger than all the others put together. That’s why king...
Turkey's Central Bank Loses 128 Tons Gold Amid Lira Pressure
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
Venezuela Wastes $330M Buying Bolívars; Adopt Dollar Now
#VNZWatch 🇻🇪: In an attempt to prop up the collapsing bolívar, the government has sold about $330 million to purchase bolívars. This is a futile exercise. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPLACE THE BOLÍVAR WITH THE GREENBACK IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/J9kJ4mZ9TB
Euro's Debt Charade Leaves Spain, Italy, France Vulnerable
The Euro got hijacked by high-debt countries to foster the illusion they're solvent. But yield caps don't confer fiscal space, which is why - when a shock like Ukraine hits - Spain (ES), Italy (IT) and France (FR) can't help....
Italy's Record Deficit Highlights ECB's Debt‑Shielding Role
Italy's cash budget deficit in Mar '26 is the biggest ever, wider even than Mar '20 at the height of COVID. At the root of this lies the ECB, which is co-opted by high-debt countries and protects them from markets....
Buffett & I Reject Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal
Warren Buffett doesn't believe in the Fed's 2% inflation target. Neither do I. If the goal is "price stability," - why ANY inflation? That 2% compounded is robbing your purchasing power. Here's a thought: What if prices should actually go DOWN? Everyone...
KBank, StraitsX, Grab Enable Real-Time Cross‑Border Payments
KBank, StraitsX, and Grab Launch Blockchain Cross-Border Payments Thailand's KBank + StraitsX + Grab enable real-time Thailand–Singapore payments via Q Wallet. XSGD stablecoin powers settlement, travelers scan QR codes for instant blockchain settlement bypassing traditional FX costs. Tech: Q-money (KBank's e-money...
Sterling Bears Higher War Premium than Euro in Options
Sterling is carrying more of a war premium than the euro in options https://t.co/0TGxw7IWtw via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/auNGmA7b1x
Made $200k on USDCAD with Simple Bullish Impulse Setup
I still look back at this setup I made $200k trading On USDCAD which was a record month for me trading in terms of gains obviously. It was a simple bullish impulse structure setup Watch the breakdown and recap here https://youtu.be/jlAr5hdXLc0?si=TSGu9_2ivAhZZf0G
South African Rand Begins Mean-Reversion, Trading Near R16.4
The South African Rand is in the process of mean reverting now, i.e. the last few years it has been pulling back (‘strengthening’) from recent lows of around R19.90 region. It hit a cycle high of around R15.68 (Jan, 26)...
CBDC Arriving 2031, Crypto Considered Dead
This is literally a CBDC which sounds great because we are getting one in or around 2031 and traditional finance is currently preparing for it. Crypto is dead.
Fed Misses 2% Target 60 Months, Global Inflation Persists
According to the FT, the FED has MISSED its 2% inflation target for 60 STRAIGHT MONTHS. Across the world, 3 out of 4 developed economies and 1 in 2 emerging economies are missing their targets as well. THE GLOBAL INFLATION GENIE REMAINS...
NZ 2-Year Yield Stays Steady Amid RBNZ Hawkish Shift
It is remarkable that the NZ 2-year yield saw little adjustment with the RBNZ's hawkish shift. The NZ-US 2-year spread was essentially unchanged despite the $NZUSD rally. Remarkable
XRP Poised as Bridge Linking SDR Currencies
SDR: Bretton Woods 1944 basket currency, GDP-weighted. IMF lender of last resort. 2014 IMF paper introduced exchange rate peg abbreviation. Ripples rebranded XRP same timeframe. XRP likely bridge between SDR currencies, not replacement.
Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Iran Risk, Lean Toward Hikes
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
Fed Sees Slower Inflation Progress Amid Tariffs, Oil, Fragile Expectations
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
XRPL Poised for $18‑21T Daily Settlement Throughput
Three flows: stock market backend settlement, commodities, FX. Each $6-7T daily volume. Total $18-21T daily XRPL throughput. NASDAQ and NYSE tokenization confirmed. Canton lacks clarity, Project Ion finalized 2022 using XRP settlement.
Dollar Slump Lifts US Bean Prices, Drops Brazil’s
The U.S. dollar on Wednesday fell to a two-year low against the Brazilian real, down about 19% from its Dec. 2024 peak. Applying this to CBOT soybean prices: 🇺🇸Beans (USD) are up 11% from this same week last year 🇧🇷Beans (BRL) are...
Key Political & Fed Events Set to Move Markets
Some catalysts over the next hour or so... 1pm ET - WH Press conference re: difference between Iran 10 and American 15 point plans 1:15pm - Netanyahu press conference re ceasefire 2pm - March FOMC minutes
Oil Slump Pushes Yields Lower, India Growth Forecast Cut
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ Brazil's 10-year bond yield tumbled toward 13.7% as crude oil prices plunged, improving the inflation outlook. ⦿ US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. ⦿ US 10-year...
Cease‑fire Trims Fed’s Demand‑risk Tail More than Inflation Upside
A durable cease-fire narrows the tail risks for the Fed on both sides, but it may do so asymmetrically: it cuts off the demand destruction tail that could have forced near-term cuts arguably more than it cuts off the upside...
Pullback Complete, Market Turns Bearish – Await Sell Signals
📊 AUDUSD D1 – Trade Update 🔥 The pullback move is complete and our Take Profit has been hit. 🎯📈 📉 Now the market is shifting back into the bearish direction. 🎯 Next Plan: • Wait for selling opportunities • Use lower timeframe confirmation before...
Dollar‑EM Indicator Signals Return to 2010‑13 Weakness
It's the Dollar versus EM that's been the key leading indicator for USD direction and that's now tumbling (black). We're in a new regime for the Dollar and are going back to the 2010-2013 period, when Dollar weakness was primarily...
Shock‑Driven Episodes Trigger Major RANd Capital Shifts
What Lesetja Kganyago describes here as the structural mechanism, '𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲'. That part is always true, it is textbook stuff. But every...
Dollar Set to Tumble, Weakness Through 2026
The Dollar is tumbling as I forecast in my posts predicting a ceasefire. USD will now unwind all its rise from the past month, which was entirely due to short-term safe haven flows that'll now reverse. We're back to Dollar...
Fed Shifts Focus: From Reserve Supply to Demand Liquidity
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
Brazilian Real Surges Toward 2022 Fair Value
The Brazilian Real today is strengthening sharply against the Dollar. $/BRL has fallen below where it was on Feb. 27, i.e. before the war with Iran began. The Real will now start a big strengthening cycle. Back to $/BRL fair...
Veteran ERZ
Followed by everyone, and it does seem like everyone in EZ rate space, who has been long ERZ6 since 97 and change.
EURUSD Weekly Bears Shift, Await Lower‑TF Confirmation
📊 EURUSD – Weekly Time Frame Forecast 🔎 On the Weekly timeframe, we have a clear bearish structure shift 📉 ⚡ The market is also reacting from a strong Order Block (OB) + Fair Value Gap (FVG) — a high-probability confluence zone. 🎯...
Get Free Forex, Crypto, Gold Checklist on Telegram
Join my Telegram channel for Forex, Crypto and Gold analysis Download a Free trading Entry checklist on my pinned Telegram channel post https://t.me/aggressivetrad
Key Market Targets Hit Before Vacation: DXY Down
2 days before going on vacation, the key targets were hit. #DXY 200 DMA https://t.co/iYwNgfojQK
Turkey's Inflation Eases, but Loose Policy Fuels Surge
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x
New Zimbabwe Notes Spark Exchange Rate Surge, Spark Controversy
According to Newsday, the release of the New Bank Notes caused a SPIKE in the exchange rate from 1:26 to 1:40 …. Why are @TrevorNcube’s publications always selling negative FAKE NEWS? Surely the @ReserveBankZIM should seek a retraction, this is how...
Romania's Central Bank Pushes Euro Adoption Despite Austerity
Romania’s central bank governor joined calls for the Black Sea nation to revive a goal of adopting the euro as the country seeks to get through a painful period of austerity https://t.co/SjqJU4C4eB https://t.co/wJj4vWehdb
RBI Holds Rates, Balances Inflation Control with Growth Outlook
The RBI is balancing inflation control with growth support, keeping rates unchanged amid global uncertainties, while projecting solid GDP growth but slightly softer momentum next year.
Chinese Banks' Net Dollar Exposure Surges Dramatically
To be blunt, no one gave this memo to China's banks External dollar assets up, external dollar liabilities down -- net long dollars way up. and we already know from other banking data that the dollar long increased significantly in...