ECB to Keep Options Open Before April Meeting, Nagel Says
ECB should keep options open ahead of April meeting, Nagel says https://t.co/Dd1fRDIi4l via @KowalczeKamil @jrandow https://t.co/5FIQHxfeCK
Master Initial Balance Trading with 77% Edge
Breakdown of How to Trade Initial Balance Like a Pro with 77% Edge 👇 https://t.co/ETP9UYc2Vw https://t.co/DcJiRfSMAs
FX Settlement Reveals China’s $35B March Currency Purchases
Fx settlement is in my view the single best proxy for China's true intervention. It looks like China, Inc bought about $35b in fx in March even with all the turmoil in the oil market. That's down...
USD Rebounds, Major Currencies Pivot at Opening Bell
Today's Opening Bell USD Snaps Back - Key Pivots in Play Across the Majors https://t.co/E70lhy3v5Z
Dollar Rebounds Amid Fed Concerns, Robust UK, China Growth
Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP: (A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May...
IMF Growth Forecasts Too Pessimistic, Revised Upward After Conflict
One year ago, the IMF put out its growth forecasts (blue) right after Liberation Day. Those forecasts were far too pessimistic and were revised up 6 months later (red). It's the same with this week's forecasts if the war -...
Eurozone's 2.5% Inflation Becomes New Normal
An in the Eurozone 2.5% is the new 2%; it was before the war in Iran. I think this can be explained in part, by a simple macro framework via the interaction between looser fiscal and tighter monetary...
Rupee Surge Makes 250 Crore Worth $1.2 Billion
Good to know that INR has strengthened so much that 250 crores is approximately equal to $1.2 billion
No Viable Alternative: $2 Trillion
There is no alternative (TINA). Or put it another way, where would you hide USD2trn? Not in HSI...
Turkey's Loose Money Policy Drives Lira to Record Low
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The lira hit a record low of 44.7/USD — down 17% over the past year. Turkey's M3 is growing at 39.9%/yr, well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey’s inflation target. TURKEY’S MONETARY POLICY IS...
ECB Officials Likely to Keep Rates Steady in April
ECB officials are said to be leaning toward an April rate hold https://t.co/EdJESl5bdm via @jrandow https://t.co/68cFQ4Gs2V
EURUSD Near Bearish Weekly Order Block – Await Confirmation
📊 EURUSD – Weekly Time Frame Insight 🔎 EURUSD is currently near a key Bearish Weekly Order Block (OB) 📉 🎯 This is a critical zone, and every trader should understand: 👉 We cannot take buy or sell entries without confirmation ❌
Arc and Stablecoins Pave Way to Fix FX Payments
Nice piece. We can actually fix FX and cross border payments. Arc and stables leading the way.
Dollar's Reserve Role Erodes as DXY Stalls Below
The other side to the toll booth narrative in the SoH is that the dollar will continue to devolve as the dominant reserve currency, as more and more of the world’s trade takes place locally or regionally. With that in...
DXY Weekly Order Block Sets Market Direction Cue
📊 Market Plan – Dollar Index Focus 🔎 We are currently waiting for the Dollar Index (DXY) to reach a key Weekly Order Block (OB) 📈 🎯 Plan: • Let the market retest the Weekly OB • Then wait for H4 confirmation (structure shift)...
Emerging Markets Surge as Yuan Hits 3‑Year High
While risk appetite has recovered sharply amid the Strait shutdown, emerging markets doing particularly well. While the EEM ETF has climbed (inverted below), the Chinese Yuan has climbed to a 3-yr high vs the Dollar - 254 days USDCNH below...
USD/CAD Slides to Critical Support, Breakdown Looms
Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Plunges to Key Support– Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/YpAbMCCFBj $USDCAD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/gLC6rvxsBF
Patience and Focus Unlock Smart‑money Trading Success
FOCUS LOST = SETUP LOST. This is a perfect example of how smart money operates. Liquidity gets taken, price moves into premium, and then the real move begins. Most traders miss it — not because they don’t know… But because they don’t wait. If you...
Hungary's New PM Calls for Full EU Integration, Euro Adoption
Newly elected Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar just said the quiet bit out loud: It’s time to properly come into the EU fold and, eventually, adopt the euro https://t.co/bbLFhjl64o via @opinion @marcusashworth https://t.co/RbHXBW7qU0
Financial Repression Exposed: BOJ Carry Trade Fuels Inequality
OUT NOW - top economists don't talk about Financial Repression (FR). That ends today. @HannoLustig on: - Bank of Japan's ~¥600 Trillion carry trade - Who hurts/benefits from FR - Inequality & Debt Crises Apple 🔊https://t.co/sn51jDcuVT Spotify📽️https://t.co/SBbM4xNOY5 1/4 https://t.co/uu9WBxzeQe
EURUSD Bulls Confront Tightening Resistance This Week
Quick video update on the #Euro levels. $EURUSD Bulls Face a Critical Test as Resistance Tightens This Week https://t.co/MdfmkmvkFB https://t.co/SgykRSBSRM
Retail Adoption of Dollar Stablecoins Fuels Hyper‑Dollarization
It will be foreign sovereigns seeking to de-dollarize while their citizens seek to dollarize. place your bets...
Greek Government Reappoints Stournaras as Central Bank Head
Greek government to reappoint Stournaras as central bank chief (and ECB Governing Council member) https://t.co/KeVphZWurT via @NikasSotiris https://t.co/xAAOWvVCBE
Dollar Set to End Seven-Day Slide
The Greenback is Poised to Snap Losing Streak: The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today. The Dollar Index is threatening to snap a seven-day decline. President Trump has held out the possibility that the “war is close to...
Euro Adoption Spikes Bulgaria's Inflation, as Predicted
Bulgarians are already feeling the consequences of Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the euro. Inflation SURGED to 3.9%/yr in March from 3.3%/yr in February. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, the inflation surge is exactly what I said would happen. https://t.co/CNFoYkR0n4
War Blockade Deepens Iran's Rial Freefall, Sparks Capital Flight
The Iranian Rial was in freefall before the war, due to chronic economic mismanagement. The blockade will now amplify that by causing financial panic and capital flight. The parallel exchange rate will be falling as people try to convert savings...
Blockades Spark Panic and Capital Flight, Not Just Trade Halt
A successful blockade isn't just about stopping oil exports. It's about instilling panic in the population and causing capital flight. That's what happened in Russia, when fear of an embargo caused capital flight in 2022. The US has lots of...
DXY Poised to End Losing Streak Amid War Escalation
DXY has not posted a higher close since April 2. It losing streak may end today. It is trading with a firmer bias and while POTUS holds out the possibility of the war ending soon, the press reports...
Swiss Inflation Low; Money Supply Growth on Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate comes in at 0.3%/yr. NO SURPRISE. The Swiss money supply (M3) is growing at 5.0%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr, a rate consistent with the Swiss target range of 0%-2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Yellen Likens Trump’s Rate‑cut Push to Banana Republic
Trump’s push to cut US rates akin to ‘banana republic’, says Yellen - https://t.co/RpxzxJc6i3 via @FT
Rupee Hits Record Low Amid Capital Flight, War Fallout
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has declined by over 4% since the start of 2026, hitting a RECORD LOW. India is suffering from capital flight that has been exacerbated because of the US-Israeli war on Iran. https://t.co/U9Bqls3Z0G
Post‑crisis Outlook: Fed Likely to Raise Rates
If the crisis blows over in the way most investors expect, i think the next Fed move will be a hike
Huge FX Options Set to Expire Tomorrow Across Major Pairs
Interesting FX options that expire tomorrow 1.64 bln euros $1.18 2 bln euros at $1.1750 $1.5 bln at JPY158.85 A$2.1 bln $0.7125-30. https://t.co/SuL5KID8ce
Massive Money Printing Raises Bitcoin's Urgency, Not Delay
Governments have printed more money in the last 5 years than the previous 100 combined. And people still ask if it’s too late to buy Bitcoin
Yuan Gains as USD Slides for Eight Straight Sessions
Beijing's campaign to accept a modest appreciation of the yuan continues. The fix was set at its lowest level in 3 yrs today. On weekly basis, it has risen 2x since last Sept. Today is the 8th consecutive session...
Higher Oil Prices Won’t Create Massive Petrodollar Surge
A new blog on a hot topic -- petrodollars The basic theme though is back when oil was at $70 there weren't actually many petrodollars -- and there won't be all that many of them even if oil settles at $100 https://t.co/NFWDnn5zbv 1/
DXY Slides, Rate Expectations Lose Grip on Dollar
Fed rate expectations are drawing less influence the bearings of the Dollar. The $DXY's slide - really a 'path of least resistance break' back into range - outpacing a modest shift in FOMC rate cut expectations: https://t.co/X6AzVkA5Mb
Fed Nominee Warsh Stuck in Uncontrollable Inflation Cycle
The Economist reports that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is caught in an inflation vice. As I've been saying for some time, the Fed won't be able to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. https://t.co/KKXAW30dzz
Fed Holds, Iran Shock Won’t Stubbornly Raise Inflation
Bessent says the Fed is right to wait and see how the economy handles the Iran shock but expects it will not seep into inflation expectations, allowing cuts to eventually resume. "If ever there was ‘Team Transitory,’ it’s this."
Euro Hits Year‑High, Signals Broad Capital Shift
EUR/USD broke above 1.177 — the euro's strongest level in over a year. Dollar weakness + European resilience = a real structural move. When $EURUSD breaks out like this, global capital flows shift. Not just for FX traders — for every asset...
Dollarizing Boosts Growth; Argentina Should Follow Suit
Ecuador and Montenegro both dumped their local currencies and “dollarized.” Stability and growth followed. Meanwhile, Argentina is plagued with the peso and lags behind. IT'S TIME FOR ARGENTINA TO DITCH THE PESO AND DOLLARIZE. https://t.co/KWvfRtgqwr
US PPI Hits 4%—Inflation Persists Despite Fed Easing
March’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) remains ELEVATED at 4.0%/yr—its highest reading since February 2023. As the Fed pivots away from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, it's having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/DCJ60m5pJO
Lagarde Applauds Hungary's New Leader for Euro Entry Plan
Lagarde welcomes the new Hungarian leader’s plan to join the euro https://t.co/ccZ5XwRv1A via @flacqua @NickHeubeck @weberalexander https://t.co/6Ic3jaRRx6
Iran Conflict Eases Yuan Pressure as Banks Shed $30B
The Iran war took the heat off China's currency. After facing strong appreciation pressure from November through February, the direction of pressure changed in March -- The state banks look to have reduced their foreign assets by ~...
Iran's Inflation ~64%, Rial up 8% Despite Claims
Startup Fortune (not Fortune magazine) claims Iran's inflation is 180% and the rial is in freefall. WRONG. I measure Iran's yearly inflation at 64%/yr. Since the war began, the rial has gained 8% vs the USD. I AM THE ONLY ACCURATE...
Dollar Slides Below 99, Signaling Eroding Confidence
DXY just broke below 99 — a 1.25-month low. Dollar weakness at this scale matters globally: commodities reprice, EM debt gets relief, US exporters benefit. But a structurally weaker $DXY also signals eroding confidence. That's the part worth watching. https://t.co/G2iZaPA5wz
America’s Empire: Unraveling or Deliberate Dollar Redesign?
Is the American Empire unwinding… or being deliberately reshaped? @SimonDixonTwitt joins me to break down: • Power structures above politics • The future of the dollar • What it means for your money Full interview 👇🏼 https://t.co/W13LI6XqRY
GBP/USD Eyes Seven-Day Surge, Resistance Ahead
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Surges for 7 Days- Resistance in Focus https://t.co/S48Wqar5jn $GBPUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/P6mS9cEUXe
Ringgit Surges as War Risks Fade and USD Weakens
Ringgit “trumps” semua currency, consolidating ~3.95 vs USD as war risk dissipates. Ringgit today against: •Spore $. Highest since 26 Mar. •Rupiah. 4335.5 Rp just below ATH. (Or RM230 per 1mil Rp) •Yen. Above 40 Yen, up 0.7% Why? •US-Iran mngkin bincang semula....
Two‑Month Embargo Cuts China’s Emergency Reserves ~10%
"Even a two-month embargo would only see China depleting its emergency reserves by about 10%." https://t.co/9wseXtRVym https://t.co/ZfwXR9aAGx