AUDUSD Set to Drop, GBPAUD Poised to Surge
🚨 Market Alert 🚀 🔥 AUDUSD (H4) is looking ready to drop like water 📉 👉 Bearish pressure building — watch for confirmation 🔥 GBPAUD is ready to fly 📈 👉 Strong bullish potential — momentum loading
UAE Central Bank’s Cash‑Equivalents Share of Reserves Fell
Alex hasn't quite internalized how bad my eyes are and how much I need BIG FONTS ... but this is super interesting -- the UAE has a ton of cash equivalents on its central bank balance sheet (the various bars). ...
Tooze and IMF Overlook Exchange Rates in Imbalance Analysis
I cannot criticise Tooze for leaving out the exchange rate as a central variable when the IMF (... the IMF ... lest we forget, whose mandate is around exchange rates and the balance of payments) also left the exchange rate...
Warsh Pushes Balance Sheet Shrinkage via QE Resolution Fund
As I wrote with Matt Sekerke in @WSJ, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is CORRECT. He wants to SHRINK the Fed’s balance sheet. So do we. The only way to do it cleanly and rapidly is through the establishment of a...
Simplify Trades: Use Smart Money Sell Model
Overthink → Overlose. Simple. This setup shows a perfect Smart Money sell model: CHoCH → FVG → OB → Liquidity sweep. Stop complicating your trades. #ForexTrading #ICTForex #SmartMoneyConcept #PriceAction #reels
China Shifts Commodity Payments to CNY, Sidelines USD Crisis
It matters greatly, here's why: 1. China can run out of USD, but it can't run out of CNY. 2. China's biggest USD outflow is in commodity imports - est. $1.5-2.0 trillion in commodities, mostly in energy. 3. So every 10% of their...
Israel's Inflation On Target, Money Supply Grows Within Golden Rate
Israel’s inflation is 1.9%/yr in March. That's within Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.08%/yr, WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/vCdAIfLoB0
Handling Near‑Miss Trades: Close, Wait, or Adjust Stop?
Do you close at a loss, wait or move your stop? What do you do when your trade misses the target by 2 pips (or 2 cents), which would have made you $3,500. https://t.co/faJBqUIctX
Middle East Still Holds Trillion in Dollar Assets, Not Switching
Tony Nash is right that the Middle East isn't de dollarizing. Iran wants sanctions relief so it (in some ideal world) can re dollarize and stop selling to China at a discount ... 1/2
Global PMIs Surpass Forecasts; Eurozone Contracts
The Composite PMIs - timely proxies for GDP for the major economies - largely beat expectations for April's update. The exception was the Eurozone and major member components, which missed forecasts significantly and slipped into contraction: https://t.co/g0G7ZJWDN1
Dropping US‑Iran Talk Deadlines From My Calendar
I am going to stop putting in proposed deadlines for the US-Iran talks into my macro calendar. Changing it intraday at this point...
Criticizing Central Bankers Is Pointless if You Oppose Them
It’s tough to take criticisms of how well a central banker is performing their duties if the criticism is coming from someone who doesn’t think central bankers should exist in the first place.
UK Yields Rise as BoE Shuns Gilt Buying, Unlike ECB
In Oct. '22, the Bank of England refused to keep buying gilts, in contrast the ECB that capitulated to Italy and Spain, capping their yields that summer. Markets now price yield caps for Italy and Spain, but not for the...
Yuan's Share of Global FX Trades Climbs to 8.5%
Bloomberg: "The yuan made up 8.5% of global currency transactions including spot, forwards, swaps and options, up from 7% in 2022. That compared with 89% for the dollar, 28.9% for the euro 16.8% for the yen, and 10.2% for the...
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A bit more on the GCC swap line puzzle (why the ask, and why is Bessent apparently keen to say yes to a set of countries with tons of assets) There doesn't seem to be any shortage of good collateral (Treasuries)...
Missing Target by 2 Pips Turns Profit Into Loss
When you miss the target by 2 pips & turn into a loss #XAGUSD #forex https://t.co/w0bCbr4KuI
Impulse Trading Kills Accounts; Trade Logic Over Emotion
Impulse trading is silent account killer. This setup shows how smart money traps traders before a strong move. Trade with logic, not emotion. #ForexReels #TradingSetup #ICTForex #SMCTrading #reels
EUR/USD Slides Toward Key Support, Breakdown Risk Rises
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Slides Toward Key Support- Breakdown Risk Build https://t.co/CAmph20YJU $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/jxCZPx2vwJ
Korean Equities Soar While Currency Fundamentals Crumble
Crazy retail outflows into levered US stock funds -- and a national pension service that is a structural source of weakness in the won (by design) and that the Koreans have had trouble turning off even when it worked at cross...
Warsh's Potential Fed Reforms Analyzed by Experts
Read this morning’s rundown from me and @samjsutton about reforms Warsh might make to the Fed: https://t.co/bBY0mNIO8y
US ESF's Dollar Holdings Too Small for GCC Support
ESF isn't all that big -- And its liquid dollar assets are actually quite small Lines for all US allies in the GCC would be small v many countries existing reserves (let alone their SWFs) and would have to be funded out...
Late Stablecoin Adoption Risks Economic Obsolescence
Countries slow to adopt stablecoins will face the same problem as late internet adopters. Sending money across borders still costs 6% and takes days, while stablecoins settle in seconds for fractions of a cent with no intermediaries sitting in the...
Cash Surges in 2025, Boosting Fed Balance Sheet
𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡. The @NewYorkFed's SOMA annual report shows currency growth accelerated in 2025! This is a bit surprising given the digital age, but it bodes well for the Fed's balance sheet and operating income. (1/7) https://t.co/jvk7p0srbM
USDCAD Selloff Signals Major Shift in CAD Direction
Short video update on the #USDCAD levels https://t.co/dZ4PNXH9rP USD/CAD Selloff Signals Bigger Shift in Canadian Dollar Direction https://t.co/igIJFHyeHl
ECB Fuels US‑payment Paranoia to Accelerate Digital Euro
ECB's Piero Cipollone is currently being grilled by Nicolas Veron on the digital euro in a refreshingly sharp way. Veron just pointed out that the ECB's paranoia about the US payment companies pulling out of Europe is somewhat far-fetched, to...
Yield Caps Shift Fiscal Strain to Yen, Raise Rates
There's no free lunch in macro. The Yen keeps falling because Japan uses the BoJ to cap yields. That doesn't make fiscal strain go away. It just transfers it from the bond market to the Yen. The way out is...
UK's Yield Strategy Beats Japan's Yield Caps
The UK gets a lot of guff for being a fiscal basket case due to its high yields, but that's not right. The counter-example is Japan, which caps yields using the BoJ (lhs), sending the Yen into a depreciation spiral....
USDINR Spike Calls for Tax‑Free Debt, Dollar Inflows
It looks like USDINR is going to make one final nudge at the highs and at the government to do something on the currency front. We need to get those dollars flowing in, especially given the decline in the dollar...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 36%, Ranks 4th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 4TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 36% against the USD over the past year. https://t.co/1Z4zQZWauW
North Korea's Won Plummets 69%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated over 69% against the USD in the past year. THE WON'S COLLAPSE REMAINS THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/d4hUPUxkTp
Venezuela’s Bolivar Plummets 84%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 84% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA = NEEDS TO OFFICIALLY DOLLARIZE. https://t.co/UKq5yzjxYD
Brad Setser Weighs in on Chinese Current Account Puzzles
Curious what @Brad_Setser makes of the arguments made in "The Chinese current account imbalances: Puzzles, patterns, and possible causes" by Chang Ma and Shang-Jin Wei of Fudan. https://t.co/Ysceo5gx1a https://t.co/ZvoJfqSbzn
USD Floor and Oil Stabilization Signal Fed Trouble
The greenback found a short-term floor at $97.90 just as oil stopped going down. That's not a coincidence. Both are telling you the Fed is screwed. EM and credit feel it first because they fund in dollars and import the oil.
Lower Rates Needed to Manage Unmanageable Federal Debt
Hearing Kevin Warsh talk about Fed independence, and watching hard assets sell off on that, feels a lot like the hype around DOGE. Great in theory, but ultimately unrealistic. The reality is that government debt has reached a scale that no brilliant...
GCC Nations Turn Net Drains on Offshore Dollar Liquidity
The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity. The Saudis...
Wait for Confirmation, Avoid Impulse Trade Regret
Impulse Trade = Instant Regret 🚨 You entered too early? That’s why you lost. Wait for confirmation. #SmartMoney #ForexTrading #ICTConcepts #TradingTips #reels
Fed's Shift: From Late Powell to Sock Puppet Warsh
It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick?
New BOK Governor Emphasizes Inflation Control and Financial Stability
Interesting passage from @HyunSongShin's first speech as governor of the Bank of Korea: https://t.co/usPzjCjld0 https://t.co/DePG6zH4MH
Warsh May Trim Fed Press Conferences if Confirmed
Fed Chair nominee Warsh hints he would reduce the number of press conferences if confirmed (Powell currently does one after every rate decision)
Central Banks Must Act Differently in Crises, Leveraging Credibility
Warsh: central banks need to act differently in crisis versus other times. Those other times is when the credibility is built for the assertiveness during crises when they should be given the benefit of the doubt.
Warsh Signals Normalcy, Yet Bias May Influence 2026 Rate Cuts
Warsh is presenting himself as if he intends to be a normal Fed Chair. Either he intends to put his thumb on the scale despite what he is saying in Congress or the President is going to be disappointed. Dollar...
AUD/USD Jumps 5%, Bulls Eye Critical Resistance
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Surges 5%- Bulls Face Key Resistance Test https://t.co/HttJernfOE $AUDUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/0TtICC6wAu
Retire Dot Plots, Forward Guidance, and Cut Press Conferences
Shitposting aside, I think it would be a great move to retire dot plots, forward guidance, and have less press conferences
Two Senators, Decades‑Long Ties, Introduce Fed Nominee
Sen. Dave McCormick is introducing Kevin Warsh at his confirmation hearing, one of at least two senators who have known the Fed chair nominee for decades (Bill Hagerty being the other)
Guindos Urges ECB to Stay Prudent on Rates
Guindos says the ECB needs to be prudent, keep a cool head on interest rates https://t.co/M1IReINmVX via @basteiro https://t.co/oIMMI7cOLA
Trump Backs Rate Hikes yet Demands World’s Lowest Rates
Kernen: Would you ever be OK with the Fed raising rates if inflation becomes a problem? Trump: “I think Kevin’s great…. I’ve been in favor of interest rate rises to fight inflation” but “we should have the lowest interest rate in...
Trump Says He'd Be Disappointed if Rates Aren't Cut
President Trump asked on CNBC if he would be disappointed if Warsh didn’t cut rates right away because of the Iran war or other factors: “I would”
Warsh's Confirmation Will Be Measured by Powell Standard
My take: A successful central banker, the adage goes, moves interest rates the right way at the right time and looks like he knows what he is doing. If Kevin Warsh is confirmed, he will be judged by...
RBI's Liquidity Flood Drives Rupee Sharply Lower
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India is DIGGING A HOLE for the rupee. After years of tight management, now the RBI is FLOODING India with liquidity and the rupee is tanking. https://t.co/fy7Uowe3o2
USD Pairs Set for Bullish Swing Trades Tomorrow
📊 Tomorrow’s Plan – USD Pairs 🚀 Guys, tomorrow we will focus on USD pairs for swing opportunities 📈 🔎 Current Outlook: ➡️ USD pairs are showing bullish potential ➡️ USDCAD (D1) is now on our watchlist 👀 🎯 Our Plan: • Wait for price to...