Oil Surge Pushes Brazil Real Toward 4.50/USD
We're on our way to $/BRL 4.50. Oil prices aren't going to fall back to pre-war levels quickly, which lifts Brazil's terms of trade and the Real. I'm moving my posts behind a paywall in coming months. Please consider subscribing now to lock in a low rate. https://t.co/6FPSc1Z02s https://t.co/pVJlSliyDE
US‑Iran Talks Will Steer Markets over Next 48 Hours
Here's the top global macro event risk over the next 48 hours. I think there is a lot of important backdrop to the likes of US retail sales, UK jobs and Tesla earnings....however, I think the US-Iran negotiations will be responsible...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Iran's Currency to Record Weakness
Read a good summary of the economic impact of the Hormuz blockade on Iran by Foreign Affairs. A good rudimentary reminder of the pressure is the exchange rate: USD/IRR is 1.320 mln and black market looks to be around 1.512...
ECB Holds Off April Rate Hike Amid Uncertainty
🇪🇺ECB unlikely to hike in April. @Lagarde: « This double uncertainty about the duration of the shock and the breadth of pass-through argues for gathering more information before drawing firm conclusions for our monetary policy. » https://t.co/nkISsCK5gz
Warsh: Fed Independence Rests with Itself, Inflation Its Duty
Kevin Warsh is set to tell the Senate at his hearing Tuesday that "Fed independence is largely up to the Fed" and that inflation is the Fed's responsibility "without excuse or equivocation" https://t.co/tzi2zEeXj8
Fed Stuck Between Rate Hike and Cut Amid Global Strain
Debate within the Fed about whether its next move is up or down intensifying. Fed is in an uncomfortabke holding pattern on rates. Its inflation-fighting credibiity is eroding. War distributions creating COVID like supply chain problems - emerging Asia hit...
Weekly Technical Outlook: DXY, EUR/USD, Gold, Bitcoin
DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Bitcoin, Equities Weekly Technical Outlook (Webinar Archive) https://t.co/6NHmaVL1Id Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/eDJEDyrxrG
Spotting Fake Sunday Gap-Down Within 20 Minutes
Another fake Sunday night Gap-Down. We called it 20 mins after Asia open. Even the RSI pattern fits.
Egypt, India Keep Floating Currencies to Shield Against Oil Shock
Egypt and India stand alone among the major EMs in allowing their currencies to adjust freely to the spike in oil prices. This will stand them in good stead. A freely-floating exchange rate helps protect you from bad shocks like...
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
Hassett Calls UAE Key Ally, Dismisses Need for FX Swap
JUST IN: Hassett views UAE as a key ally, with Bessent ready to assist if needed, and believes a UAE FX swap isn't required.
UAE Can Preserve Peg via Swap Line, Not Reserve Cuts
A lot of this seems preemptive, given UAE’s large existing FX reserves. Using a swap line for a bit to help maintain the currency peg would be seen as less disruptive than trimming reserves.
Dollar Index Targets 98.20, Possible Retracements to 99.25
The dollar index may have fallen in five waves, and it will confirm if we go above 98.20. Then a 50% retracement to 98.87 may follow or we can even attempt 61.8% retracement to 99.245 #DXY #DollarIndex #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex...
Hormuz Tension Leaves Dollar Dominance Unshaken
🔥The Hormuz Crisis: ▪️Pricing oil in US dollar is intact ▪️The GCC's dollar peg is intact
UAE Threatens Shift From Petrodollar to Yuan
💥JUST IN The UAE has told the U.S. that if it runs short of U.S. dollars, it will be forced to use Chinese yuan or other currencies for oil sales and transactions. The petrodollar is at risk. https://t.co/ENEUL9x7LY
Taiwan Fights Chip Boom to Protect Undervalued Currency
Taiwan's willingness to do absolutely anything and everything to keep the chip boom from putting pressure on the wildly undervalued Taiwan dollar is unw=matched ... 1/ https://t.co/yVjNKHd7ci
Oil Spike Highlights Balance‑of‑Payments Shock Over Dollar
With oil rising again (alas), my Odd Lots episode from last week gains new relevance -- tis at least as much about the balance of payments impact of an oil shock as about the dollar https://t.co/JtgH1nPC0z
Dollar Climbs as Middle East Tensions Close Hormuz
JUST IN: US dollar surges amid escalating Middle East conflicts, with the Strait of Hormuz shut.
UAE Threatens Oil Trade Shift to Yuan over USD Shortage
UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY...
UAE Holds Strong Reserves Amid Unreported Figures, Seeks Swap Line
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line -- the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians 1/ https://t.co/5Q61nzi68P
Saudi Deficit Swells, Turning Kingdom Into Eurodollar Drain
Saudi Arabia's deficit widened to $25.28 billion in Q4 2025. Instead of being a source of the petrodollars, the kingdom has become a drain on the eurodollar system. https://t.co/JkziRznkyx
BRICS to Launch PIX‑style Cross‑border Digital Currency System
BRICS is preparing a payment system inspired by Brazilian PIX... ...that will allow direct transactions between countries using national #digitalcurrencies for without relying on the dollar or Western #banks as intermediaries. @clickpetroleoeg. #payments https://t.co/1oj8tj7cvu
Geopolitical Turmoil Boosts Demand for Dollar Alternatives
As geopolitical uncertainty grows, so does interest in alternatives to the US dollar. Stablecoins and basket currencies are entering the conversation. https://t.co/e2EvVLtbv1
Turkey's Record Current‑account Deficit Stems From Domestic Policies
Turkey's in trouble for the same old reason. The current account deficit in Jan & Feb 2026 is the widest ever except for Jan & Feb 2023, when Lira ended up sharply devaluing. Turkey's problems have nothing to do with...
Global Economic Calendar: Key Data Releases This Week
Everyone will be watching the headlines but don't miss this busy global calendar 👇 🇺🇸 US Retail Sales 🇪🇺 EZ -GE ZEW -GE IFO -EZ PMIs -GE PPI 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -CPI -PMIs -Retail Sales 🇨🇦 CA -CPI & PPI -Retail Sales 🇯🇵 JP CPI 🇳🇿 NZ -Trade -CPI
ECB Should Wait, Not Rush Rate Decisions
ECB better off waiting than rushing into rate action, Demarco says https://t.co/IAAWNv0BDq via @jrandow https://t.co/K09LIzQVbh
Key Geopolitics and Economic Data Shaping Monday Trades
Middle East Ceasefire, US Retail Sales, Global PMIs Join us on Monday at 8:45am ET to dive into everything that will impact your trades 👇 https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss
Turtle Soup Signals Bearish Break After Liquidity Sweep
📊 GBPUSD – Weekly Forecast 🚀 🔎 On the Weekly Time Frame, we have a clear Turtle Soup setup 🪤 🎯 This indicates a potential bearish move after liquidity is taken 📌 Trading Plan: 👉 First, we wait for Previous Week High sweep 💧 👉...
India Switches to Yuan for Iranian Oil Purchases
This reported now in BT but the news several days old. We discussed it in the Daily Energy Report: Iran set the conditions for LPG and oil imports. Desperation is relative. India settles Iranian oil...
IMF Underestimates Growth After Major Economic Shocks
IMF growth forecasts are much too pessimistic when they come right after big shocks. It was that way in Apr. 2025 after "Liberation Day" and it's like that again now. I talked about this on this morning's live stream that...
Brazil's High Money Growth Fuels Inflation Above Target
Brazil's March inflation is 4.14%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3%/yr inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Shock Levels
The past 7 weeks of conflict have seen capital outflows from EM that were almost as bad as during COVID, which was a massive shock. I'll talk about this and where we are on the Strait of Hormuz (is it...
US Rally and Dollar Slide Likely to Reverse Next Week
New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest....
Emerging Markets' Nonfinancial FX Debt Stays Under 20% GDP
What is remarkable is that the nonfinancial sector foreign exchange debt is below 20% of GDP and around 10% of total debt, down from the levels of around 40-60% for most of the emerging markets. https://t.co/p334pC8XRt
Iranian Rial Gains 11% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has appreciated by 11% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO REMAIN SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/WOududM6s7
Kazaks Cautions: ECB May Not Raise Rates Soon
Kazaks warns against assuming the ECB’s next move will be a hike https://t.co/D88xszH8pz via @jrandow https://t.co/wDW8qFxiYT
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Levels, Live Stream Tomorrow
I'm doing a live stream tomorrow morning at 9:30 am (ET) with a summary of all the chatter around this week's IMF/WB Spring meetings, including a discussion of this chart, which shows that EM outflows over the past month were...
Gold/Silver Ratio Boosts USD Confidence and Profit Potential
Applying the Gold/Silver ratio can be used for showing off..but also making money in bolstering confidence in USD-mkts & metals #forex $FXE $UUP $TNX $XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/sAHfIgKC1u
India Pays for Iranian Oil in Yuan, Bypassing Dollars
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India is settling payments for Iranian oil in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars.🤯
Rate‑cut Odds Surge to 50% After Recent Events
Just a couple weeks the probability of another FOMC rate cut this year was down to less than 10% With some positive macro and geopolitical events over the past two weeks including the last 48 hours... the probability of another FOMC...
Euro Slides as Hike Forecasts Drop to 1.6%
FWIW, intra-day euro off its highs. Not major moves, but it appears there was an overshooting on the Iran news. Also now only 1.6 hikes expected by year-end in the eurozone, down from 2.6 on Monday src: BBG https://t.co/BogH7m2BKY
You Can Simultaneously Long and Short the Same Market
Going long & short the same mkt is neither a myth nor a cop-out. #USDJPY #forex https://t.co/nltrE65m4U
Peace Hopes Boost Turkey's Gold Reserves Amid Costly Peg
Prospects of peace are helping Turkey. The central bank's gold holdings rose for the first time in data for the week of April 10. Gold holdings are now down 123 tons since the start of the conflict, which is worth...
Stablecoin Statecraft Mirrors BCCI’s Controversial Model
Putting the statecraft into stablecoin statecraft in a way that makes you wonder if USD1 is just the second coming of BCCI?
World Bank Mulls $2B Loan as Argentina Eyes Dollarization
#ArgentinaWatch 🇦🇷: The World Bank is considering loaning Argentina up to $2B to help refinance its debt. Stuck with junk-rated bonds, Argentina is leaning on multilateral development banks for finance. IT'S TIME FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST DEADBEAT TO DITCH THE PESO AND...
Aussie Dollar Hits Highest Yen Level Since 1990, Signaling Risk‑On
BofA Hartnett: nothing says risk-on more than Aussie dollar (cyclical FX) at highest levels vs. Japanese yen (funding FX) since Oct'90 https://t.co/5Xbt4PwZjW
Rupee Weakness Drops India to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: When measured in dollar terms, India falls from 4th to 6th in global GDP rankings. This slip can be laid at the rupee's doorstep. With the rupee down ~11% in FY26, India’s GDP is smaller in dollar terms. India...
Peru's Trusted Central Bank Governor Faces Retirement Amid Political Turmoil
Peru is gearing up to elect its 10th president in 10 years, but another serious question weighs on the nation of 35 million people: What happens if its central-bank governor of 20 years retires this year? The central bank has a...
Falling Energy Prices Undermine Case for ECB Rate Hikes
Dolenc says falling energy prices challenge the case for ECB hikes https://t.co/enf8vbgYkA via @jrandow https://t.co/fkf13bigUP
Argentina's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.6%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Argentina’s money supply is growing at 31.8%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de-facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/JvIDAwzeSe