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Tuesday recap
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The Fed won a sweeping court victory Friday. But the fact that it needed one tells you everything about how much has changed. The unsealed filings are something else—the Fed catalogued 100 Trump attacks on Powell and told a court the probe was designed to help the president “seize a power specifically denied to him by federal law.” Fed independence used to be protected by norms. Now it’s protected by judges. What that shift means going forward: https://t.co/uetapnP7XV
New weekly drops. The war's disruption shapes the investment climate. Hawkish holds by seven of the 8 G10 central banks that meet. RBA could hike. Brazil had indicated a cut before the war. Still seems reasonable....
$DXY - Broke out above its November high. The 3 year cycle low is confirmed. The Dollar is headed higher into 2027. The question is will the current cycle be a not so bullish cycle like the last one, or...
Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves: The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy…...
How big is the market fear factor? The 4 charts on the left show what's going on in spot markets. The 4 on the right show options markets. Compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine 4 years ago, we're now at...
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
Anyone know how we could possibly have gold over $5,000 with the DXY over $100? https://t.co/S8n1xWP4PR
It looks like we will be focused on two things next week: 1. The economic impact of the US-Iran conflict 2. Monetary Policy Look at the laundry list of central bank decisions on tap... All of them are expected to hold, but we...
They will print US dollars to rebuild economies after being ravaged from communism and tyranny.
ECB’s Villeroy says it isn’t the right moment to raise rates next week https://t.co/fTpHRzxngU via @WHorobin https://t.co/zJ4KHlvUAN
ECB’s Panetta says the private sector is key in cross-border payments https://t.co/dYdaPPXjLl via @Alemrome https://t.co/dkpP47DCou
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
Perfect Buy Zone identified with Smart Money Concepts. Price swept liquidity from the demand zone and created a strong Break of Structure, leaving a Fair Value Gap for potential continuation. Discipline and patience always pay in the market. #ForexTrading #SmartMoneyConcept #PriceAction #ForexEducation...
US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Surges to Fresh Yearly High – 100 Break at Stake DXY is now poised to mark the largest single-week advance since November 2024 https://t.co/c3SF8eEYBc $DXY Weekly Chart https://t.co/0hLHMw5pZH
DXY starting to move up just as it did in early 2018. This threatens to tighten global liquidity even further, which will continue to be a macro headwind for risk assets https://t.co/70JRVsUDZk
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
While everyone focuses on volatile oil prices, the dollar is nearing a breakout higher. An appreciating dollar tightens monetary policy outside of the US and helps tame import prices. Many other implications as well. https://t.co/69NGmJLCB1
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
Crude is consolidating despite the war showing no signs of relenting. Disappointing UK Jan GDP pushes $GBP to the bottom of G10 fx today. Proximity of JPY160 turns mkt cautious and $JPY is faring best. See https://t.co/Xdwqs68Eew https://t.co/aB4Tekr0wK
THB has weakened the most in Asia since the Iran War & the reason being is that it has the highest deficit of energy trade in Asia as a share of GDP. Korean won is second.
By 2022, the cumulative text of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions reached about 14 million words, with increasingly technical jargon to describe the growing web of cross-border tools. https://t.co/YN9GeT7uhG
Before 2020, the monthly frequency of price changes was stable at around 8.2% across 9 major euro countries. It then rose sharply in 2022, averaging about 12% that year and peaking at 15.7% in January 2023, nearly double the pre-pandemic...
So far ringgit is doing well, but the longer oil supply is affected, region and Msia will be seriously affected. Ringgit performance; •up against most currencies since US war on Iran started. •seen as least impacted or net beneficiary of...
Iran Is Winning, Which Is Dangerous 💫Odd Man Out 💫Confirmed Bear 💫Higher Oil, Higher Dollar 💫Higher Oil, Higher Yields 💫Higher Oil, Higher USDJPY 💫Higher Oil, Higher Inflation Expectations 💫Higher Oil, Lower AI Investment 💫Higher Oil, Lower Markets https://t.co/WEe7RNmgRh
The $DXY Dollar Index has advanced to close at a three-month high while also clearing some channel and Fib resistance on the close. Notably, the market's FOMC rate expectations for 2026 have also extended their shift, now only pricing in...
Failed breakout to clear the 2023 high in $AUDUSD Now off more than 1.6% off the high. Support now 7037 with 6913/43 still key. Resistance 7158 with 7208/14 critical #AUDUSD Daily Chart https://t.co/Cui4nVGM5q
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Could the Bank of England defer a possible rate cut next week? https://t.co/f0T8D0P94L #GBP #FOMC
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Bears Charge Pivotal Support for a Seventh Time https://t.co/S0r6Spt5dp $GBPUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/HERuBmlZ9Y
Today's Opening Bell We covered a lot today- asset chapters provided US Dollar Testing Yearly High as Iran War Escalates https://t.co/7jdA7902Rt
I think it is a mistake to think that Japanese officials actually defend a fixed USD-JPY level. It makes sense to be cautious about the $USD in general as interest rate differentials have moved against it. It is a...
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
$USD trading a little softer as the North American session gets underway. Be prepared. https://t.co/d5zBeuqizV
As Bloomberg notes, the yen has reached levels where Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) and perhaps Secretary Bessent have a choice to make; the yen is clearly in the zone where intervention is a real possibility 1/ https://t.co/gE34g8gEW4
My take on the MONEY SUPPLY: "The money supply is always the cause of inflation. There are long and variable lags between changes in the money supply and changes in inflation." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney...
Traders suffer losses on options after U-turn in ECB rate bets https://t.co/IOlxq962Fs via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/EsJzYFwmea
Most traders get chopped alive in Asia and London sessions. Not because they're bad traders. Because they ignore one simple signal. When your long-term MA and short-term MA are hugging each other, the market has no conviction. No conviction = no trade. The...
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Bears Assault Multi-Month Support - Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/jTs8wu6sOj $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/GCs2UbCZkL
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Resistance Under Siege – Bulls Eye 7200 https://t.co/Z4xmadvNgr $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/GZy1mBhw92
Both US headline and core #CPI for February were both in-line with expectations and previous: 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. Nevertheless, expectations for FOMC rate cuts through this year are the lowest since May 2nd (-30bps). That won't make Trump happy... https://t.co/9kJhHgDilS
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
Nice to see that @HyunSongShin has officially recognized that stablecoins open the door to an "Uber Surge Pricing" type liquidity market. [Actual gas markets also clear in a similar way, notably the NBP balancing point system.] The below screenshot is from...
The reality is: If you like commodities, you should also appreciate resource-rich economies — and their currencies. Canadian “peso” poised to outperform while it remains one of the most heavily shorted currencies in the world today. You don’t need to tell me...
Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider: The dollar is mixed as the North American session is about to begin. Heightened expectations of a rate hike next week have lifted the Australian...
$AUD reached its best level since June 2022 amid heightened expectations of a rate hike next week. $USD more broadly mixed. PBOC lows USD fix again. US CPI seems dated but will show floor before the war....
