Firms Expect Higher Prices, Yet Inflation Remains Stable
🇪🇺 The ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) shows an increase in selling prices expectations over the next 12 months, but also stable long-term inflation expectations, lower wage growth expectations, and tighter funding conditions. https://t.co/gOrkAXRGGm
Dollar's Global Dominance Pre‑dated and Survives Petrodollars
Enjoyed Brendan Greely's big story on petrodollars -- which debunks a lot of dated theorizing about the role oil plays in the dollars global role. He is right -- the offshore dollar system predates the arrival of "petro" dollars and has...
Chinese State Banks Do More Than Just FX Intermediation
. @GagnonMacro asked a good question, one that others at Peterson have also raised (and I know from other sources that it can also be traced back to the PBOC), namely aren't the Chinee state banks just intermediating domestic fx...
Rate Holds Loom; Guidance Drives Markets Amid Resilient Equities
Here’s the extracted text from the image: ⸻ The calm before the storm is here 🌊 → 5 central bank rate decisions → US advanced Q1 GDP → PCE deflator (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) → Eurozone inflation data → Iran headlines still in play None of the...
Warsh Confirmation Sets Stage for June Budget
Now that Warsh is going to be confirmed. Assuming Powell resigns Governor that day. (as he should). Warsh will vote for a cut in June. Waller, Williams, Miran or someone like him & Bowman make 5 votes for...
Iranian Rial Gains 8% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 8% vs. the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO NOT REPORT ON THIS IMPORTANT STATISTIC. https://t.co/U7feV9L31L
Russia Cuts Rates Despite High Inflation and Excess Money Growth
Last week, Russia’s Central Bank CUT its policy rate by 50 bps to 14.5%. WRONG MOVE. RU’s inflation is at 5.9%/yr, ABOVE its 4% target. RU’s Money Supply (M2) is growing at 11.4%/yr, ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 8.4%/yr—a rate consistent...
Kevin Warsh Poised to Become 17th Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh is now on track to become the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve when Jay Powell's term concludes on May 15. https://t.co/mPaGC9If1n
USD Swap Lines Weaponized: Past Freeze Boosted CIPS, Gold
RE: “Weaponizing USD swap lines” - last time the USD system rails were weaponized (2022 Russia FX reserves frozen), CIPS payments more than doubled in 2 years, and gold rose 3x in 4 years. Let’s watch. https://t.co/ydeBLxbx6r
Three Hidden Mistakes Sabotaging Your Forex Success
You're not losing in forex because of your strategy. You're losing because of 3 mistakes you don't even realize you're making I break them down (and the psychology behind each) in my new video 👇 https://t.co/CUUqbHmejH https://t.co/CUUqbHmejH
Dollar's Surge Temporary; Peace Deal Could Cut 3%
The Dollar has risen sharply due to safe haven inflows, but as soon as we get a peace agreement, those flows will reverse. My best guess is that the Dollar will fall immediately by 3 percent on such an agreement....
Rupee Slides 4.5% YTD, Hits All‑Time Lows
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The rupee has depreciated ~4.5% this year. Despite the RBI’s ongoing intervention, the rupee continues to visit ALL-TIME LOWS. Remember what Oscar Wilde wrote: “The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational.”...
China Could Replicate Eurodollar Model for Global CNY
1/8 Brendan Greeley on the development of the eurodollar. If Beijing truly wants CNY to be more widely used in international finance, the eurodollar market provides one potentially useful model to show how that might happen. https://t.co/OoBlDvaenX
Chinese State Banks Boost Dollar Holdings, Fuel US Asset Demand
Gonna keep repeating this until it registers -- The PBOC may or may not be reducing its real Treasury holdings; it could just be moving out of US custodians But the state banks are clearly adding to their dollar portfolios, and thus...
Poland's Inflation Overshoot Linked to Excess Money Supply
Poland’s inflation is at 3.0%/yr in March. That’s ABOVE its 2.5% target. PL’s money supply (M3) is growing at 11.5%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 8.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2.5%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
Treasury Swaps Shield GCC, Preventing UST Yield Spike
An important point of view (on Treasury-supplied USD swaps for GCC countries) comes from our very own, @GraphCall: https://t.co/RHN9TFGR1f This exchange of currency - without selling held collateral - avoids a GCC-forced dump of UST to get liquidity while oil revenue sales...
Yuan Emerges as Safe Haven Amid Dollar Uncertainty
“Xi Jinping…said the country must have a ‘powerful’ currency. The yuan is still far from that. But it is becoming something else: a source of comfort for countries and firms disconcerted by America’s haphazard stewardship of the truly powerful dollar.” https://t.co/cZJuG30DSV
BoE's Rapid Bond Unwind Fuels UK's Higher Yields
The UK isn't the fiscal basket case it's made out to be. During the LDI crisis in 2022, the Bank of England kicked asset managers to the curb. It's also unwound its gov't bond holdings way faster than other central...
Central Bank Independence Ensures Commitment to Price Stability
Central bank independence refers to the absence of political influence on monetary policymaking. It is widely accepted that independence acts as a commitment device to achieve price stability. https://t.co/Gp9sjyM0Pv
Japan's Debt Trap Leaves Yen as Sole Release Valve
Japan is trapped. ~230% debt/GDP. BOJ owns 50%+ of the JGB market. Deeply negative real rates. The Yen is weakening despite rising yields because the market knows they can't meaningfully hike without triggering a fiscal crisis. The currency is the...
Senate Banking Committee Schedules Warsh Fed Chair Vote
The Senate Banking Committee has set a committee vote for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination on Wednesday https://t.co/l3pMHESk0G
India Holds $600bn, Should Sell Dollars, Not Seek Swap
India doesn't need a swap line. It has 600bn$ nearly, to sell, if it wants and sadly it doesn't want to. Cad is 50bn to 75bn a year. There is no exit tax. 20% above 10L a year is only...
Swap Lines Are Loans, Not Gifts, Fueling Dollar Demand
For those new to swap lines due to recent headlines, swap lines are not USD “gifts”, they are USD “loans”. The difference? Loans need to be paid back. And as such create dollar demand. Swap lines...
May 2026: Markets in Transition, No Central Bank Meetings
May 2026 Monthly: The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead. The market is...
US Shock 2.0: Iran War Drives Market Disruption
May Monthly drops. Much talk about China 2.0 shock, but the main disruptive force is not emanating from Beijing now. US shock 1.0 were the tariffs and US shock 2.0 is the war on Iran. May is...
2025: China's Surplus Increasingly Recycled Through State Banks
100% wrong substantively. The key change in 2025 is that a rising share of China's surplus is being recycled through the state banks. They aren't the PBOC but they aren't exactly private either 1/2 https://t.co/VGghVlVzkz
US May Weaponize Dollar Swap Lines Amid Tensions
🧵Some other important swap line factoids: 1/ Robert McCauley has been warning about the potential weaponisation of dollar swap lines for quite a while. In this view, the US is likely to apply statecrafty terms and conditions on dollar...
Bessent Open to Fed Chair, Not Elected Office
Bessent says he has no ambition to run for office but “wouldn’t say ‘no’ to being Fed chair later.” “There’s no election involved. You can shape the economy, and it’s an institution.” https://t.co/3lx7XrYMiD
Central Banks Pivot to Demand‑driven Liquidity, Warsh Aligns
With Kevin Warsh's nomination locked in, here's my recent take on central banks' growing shift from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity frameworks. The best version of Warsh's balance sheet ambitions would follow this trend.
UAE USD Swap Lines May Fund China Investments
So…will the USD swap lines Bessent is going to give UAE going to finance the UAE’s newly-signed investments in China? Or are the USD swap lines so UAE doesn’t have to sell USTs to make these investments in China? Or do the...
Money Supply Surge Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuels Inflation
My take on @PalisadesRadio on America’s inflation problem: "The US will have trouble getting the inflation genie back in the bottle because the money supply has been accelerating for 18 months, growing faster than Hanke's Golden Growth Rate." https://t.co/0f14uwnTFx
Fed and Central Banks Ignoring Money Supply Theory
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the Fed's DISREGARD for the Quantity Theory of Money: “The Fed doesn't look at changes in the money supply, & the Fed’s not alone. Most central banks discard the money supply." Central bankers should give Sekerke &...
US Market Not Top‑Heavy; Dollar Still Reserve Power
Two myths that aren't true 1.) The US stock market is top heavy 2.) The US Dollar is losing reserve status Neither are remotely true, yet we hear them all the time https://t.co/ONyZtCOXpe
Discipline Required; Impatient Traders Lose to Smart Money
No discipline = no profits. This setup shows how smart money traps impatient traders using inducement and liquidity. If you don’t wait… you lose. Learn the game. Master the edge. #ForexReels #TradingSetup #SmartMoneyForex #ICTModel #reels
US Deficit Ballooning as Fed Expands Balance Sheet
I know there is a lot going on with a lot of headlines (US-Iran, monetary policy, consumer confidence, etc); but worth remembering the ballooning US deficit and efforts to facilitate it (like the Fed balance sheet) still matter: https://t.co/4H1YDnmu7Y
Cease‑fire Stalls Dollar, Hints at Upcoming Decline
Last week’s (week of 4/13) cease fire in the Middle East helped keep the bond market calm and the dollar from surpassing resistance at 100-10. The fact that the dollar’s gains were less than impressive suggests that the next major...
USDJPY: The Overlooked Market Driver You Need
I think USDJPY is one of the most important variables in the market right now that is flying under the radar. I discuss it in length here👇
Hidden Forces Eroding the Foundation of Dollar Dominance
Interesting thread that makes the case for what @sobel_mark calls the "termites feasting away at the foundation of dollar dominance". Should give us pause... (1/2)
Tooze Delivers Concise History of the Exchange Stabilization Fund
Tooze is on a roll -- great instant history of the Exchange Stabilization Fund 1/2
FOMC Slashes Rates 75 Bps to 3.5%
January 22, 2008. The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent...Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice...
Expect Powell to Dodge Political Pressure at Final Press Conference
I would like to hear Powell's unvarnished opinion on political pressure on the Fed next week in his final press conference following the FOMC decision...but I suspect he will abstain do to 'respect for the office' or some such
Geopolitical Whispers Fuel Market Volatility Ahead of Central Bank Decisions
Iran headlines are driving everything today $DXY pulled back hard off its highs $SPX whipsawing $CL all over the place No US data on the calendar, so every geopolitical whisper is moving markets. Add Israel/Lebanon missiles and China restricting US tech investment...
Central Banks Sing the President’s Tune, Not Independent
If the job interview is "Will you do my bidding?" the answer isn't central bank independence. It's central bank karaoke: the chair just sings the president's tune. https://t.co/YFiILGZPvR
Russia's Central Bank Lowers Rate To
MOSCOW, April 24 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank reduced its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% on Friday, as expected by analysts, despite pressure from businesses to cut faster in order to boost the economy, which contracted...
USD Swap Lines Misunderstood: Liquidity Shakedowns Explained
Two-part compendium from me on why everyone is getting the wrong end of the stick on USD swap lines and how liquidity shakedowns really work with asset-rich sovereigns. First piece here: https://t.co/DkaYPexxOU https://t.co/2wWxKXkaWz
Kazimir Suggests Modest ECB Hike Due to Iran War
Kazimir says a slight ECB rate increase may be necessary on the Iran war https://t.co/E3r6aKNNHQ via @Dan_Hornak https://t.co/G5jKSecgTk
SNB Free to Adjust Rates and Intervene, Says Schlegel
Schlegel says a vigilant SNB is unrestricted on interest rates and interventions https://t.co/T29eQBLJeq via @bbenrath https://t.co/d7Ln9mGd5W
Eurozone Inflation at 3% Forces ECB to Hold, Stagflation Returns
Decidedly grim survey data in the Eurozone for April nails the ECB's decision for a hold next week, despite another increase in inflation, to around 3%. Stagflation economics is back; did it ever leave?
Dollar's Dominance Eclipses Historic Pound Supremacy
This chart, from a Banque de France paper by @RVicquery (now at the Bk of England) shows just how dominant the dollar has become. Far more than the pound ever was. https://t.co/Ev6hWwiaZX https://t.co/Ot2Vda1tSt
SNB's Sub‑zero Rate Shift Outweighs Standard Cuts
SNB move below zero is a bigger step than a normal cut, Schlegel tells NZZ https://t.co/ZMyYbIPZxG https://t.co/a1V1z0xvIk