No Fed Dot Plot—FOMC Statement Takes Center Stage
There's no Fed dots today, which means that until Powell's last (and 64th—but who's counting) press conference at 2:30 pm, it's just the FOMC statement to do the heavy lifting. Here's what I'm watching: https://t.co/8sdY0wHDV8
Euro's Q1 Plunge and April Rebound Signal Policy Repricing
Euro and ECB: The euro' fell nearly 1.65% in Q1, only to claw back about 1.25% in April. At one level, that looks like noise within a broader range. At another, it reflects a market that has been repeatedly and...
Canada Yields Rise Independently of Recent Rate Cuts
when they tell you that Canadian rates (yields) are rising and the @bankofcanada is all to blame, just tell'em they're wrong... 5-year Canada yields bottomed in '20 (like global yields) they spent the past few years consolidating and are now moving...
Central Banks Maintain Strong Q1 Gold Purchases Despite War
While this captures two months pre war and while gold has likely been a source of funds for some foreign countries post war, central bank buying still strong in Q1. https://t.co/vQDtnkXVdj
Dollar Rise Triggers Endless Loop of Economic Paradoxes
The dollar is rising Why? Because bond yields are going up Why? Because Oil prices are rising Why? Because the UAE left OPEC Why? Because Trump blocked Hormuz Why? Because the dollar is falling Why? Because real interest rates are negative Why? Because inflation is rising Why? Because - Damn it - Don't you get it...
Offshore Dollar Deposits Top $14 Trillion, Dominance Grows
Despite all the noise about de-dollarization, the FT reports that offshore dollar deposits just SURPASSED 14 TRILLION DOLLARS. The dollar is FAR AHEAD of any rival and its lead is INCREASING. KING DOLLAR = REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/A48y0RhHY4
War‑Driven Inflation Undermines BoC Rate Hike Effectiveness
Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt It's so simple, the War In The Middle East creates inflation The BoC...
USDCAD Reflects Negative Yield Spread Despite Higher US Rates
Even though the US benchmark rate is ~150 basis points higher than the Canadian benchmark, the 2-year to benchmark yield spread between the US and Canada is -0.53% (-53 bps). $USDCAD vs that premium differential: https://t.co/hp6WgKtRCI
Emerging Markets Shift to Gold as Dollar Reserves Shrink
Deutsche’s George Saravelos highlights today that “the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today.” And: “...
Higher Rates, Energy Costs Spell Trouble for Import‑dependent Currencies
Rising rates and high energy costs are going to be bad for any currency whose country is a net importer of energy Going long JPY (or EM FX for that matter) right now is effectively calling the top on global bond...
Bonds and Yen Remain Market’s Critical Focus
Just released this week's Scouting the Tape that follows up on last week's bond and Yen discussion. Continue to believe this is the most important area of the market. There is a lot going on here.
Seized USDJPY Breakout, Earned +6.39R Profit
Caught a great opportunity in USDJPY yesterday morning. Sharp drop on the BoJ announcement flushed support, then recaptured it. Bid the HoH, right into the level, stop below. Closed just now on the breakout of D1 resistance for +6.39R. Sorry for being...
Fed Holds Rates Hawkishly, Blames Iran War
🚨 FED DAY PLAYBOOK 🚨 3 things we KNOW happen today: ✅ No rate cut ✅ Hawkish hold ✅ Powell blames Iran war for global uncertainty The wild cards 👇 ❓ Does he stay on as a Fed governor? ❓ Inflation worry vs. growth...
Predicting Fed Tone: Green Gains vs Red Declines
Do you see more GREEN or RED 👀 Before every Fed meeting, I build a table comparing how the economy has shifted since the last one to gauge the likely tone. 🟢 Green = improvement 🔴 Red = deterioration So with that in mind…...
BoC Likely Holds Rates Amid Slowing Economy, Rising Inflation
Bank of Canada meets before the Fed this morning. ZERO chance they hike rates 🔻Spending DOWN 🔻Full time employment DOWN ⬆️Inflation UP https://t.co/HPRy9yMpD7
Powell's Final Press Conference Could Signal Fed Pivot
Jerome Powell is set to deliver his final FOMC press conference as Fed Chair today, alongside a key interest rate decision at 2PM ET. Markets are on edge as investors look for signals on inflation, rate cuts, and the future path...
Yen's Slide Reflects Debt, Not Policy, as BoJ Caps Yields
Japan's Yen is the weakest in many years, even though the BoJ this week was hawkish and signaled a hike for the next meeting. Debasement of the Yen isn't a currency story. It's a debt story. As long as the...
Eurodollars Dominate as Petrodollar Fades, Dollar Consolidates
The petrodollar has been increasingly irrelevant for more than a decade @ctindale Eurodollars run the system And as disorder spreads, the dollar isn’t fading, it’s consolidating power #Dollar #Eurodollar #Macro #OOTT https://t.co/lMSN5ySCZ5
Hungary's Central Bank Warns Against Rushed Euro Adoption
Hungary’s central bank governor urged caution on the new government’s plan to adopt the euro, saying that a rushed process could lead to unintended negative consequences for the economy https://t.co/krQSmnDRjv via @mkasnyik https://t.co/9nMNVQwEH9
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in March, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/LLVZcUcIV2
Smart Traders Target Liquidity, Not Just Candles
Most traders see candles… smart traders see liquidity. This setup shows a complete model: Liquidity Sweep → MSS → FVG Entry 📌 What’s happening: Price takes liquidity at CRTH Then shifts structure (MSS) Then gives a perfect entry at FVG That’s the only high probability setup. Stop chasing...
UAE Liquidity Aid Could Cement Dollar Dominance
China probably is short on liquidity If the UAE provides it via US swap lines, that strengthens US dollar dominance, right @izakaminska ? #China #DollarSystem #Geoeconomics #Yuan #GlobalFinance
US-Israeli Conflict Fuels Record Yuan Surge
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, China’s currency is gaining. Cross-border portfolio flows hit $712 BILLION in March (+40% vs last year), while the yuan’s share of China’s international transactions rose above 56%, the highest on record. CHINA = BIG WINNER....
Fed's Inflation Focus Risks Stock Market Amid Iran War
Will the Fed break the stock market as Chair Powell and the FOMC dial up their focus on inflation amid the US-Iran war? #Fed #FOMC #Powell #IranWar #StockMarket #Dollar #Oil #Gold #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ER2QbNR0qa
London’s Eurodollar Rise Stemmed From Belgian, French Rejection
🏴☠️1/ If what I think is happening is really happening, then I can make some predictions. Especially about incoming European problems. But first an important side story, which also relates to the “special relationship”. What a lot of people don’t know is...
USDCAD Slides to Critical Support, Inflection Risk Looms
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Plunges to Key Support- Inflection Risk Builds https://t.co/LSQyqXWiUm $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/PN82OfQcjl
Trade Only During Two Daily Market Intent Windows
Kill Zone vs. Power Zone - Timing Matters What’s your best time to trade? https://t.co/uOQ470gt4b
ECB Inaction Could Erode Short‑term Euro Bond Yields
If the ECB does not deliver the almost 70 basis points, or 0.7 percentage points, of rate hikes that markets expect this year, the current yields on short-term European government bonds may not stick around https://t.co/QLIVYNAWdI https://t.co/Te5FjKUzWR
Swap Lines Reveal Preference for USD Over De‑Dollarization Pain
The existence of Swap Lines is all the proof you need that countries would rather deal with the Pain of being beholden to the USD system than to deal with the Pain that De-Dollarization requires. https://t.co/ejftsuboEK
BOJ's Non‑hawkish Stance Forces USD/JPY to 160
Some comical headlines post-BOJ meeting. Absolutely nothing about the meeting was hawkish. They have to let 160 USDJPY go. https://t.co/aakxIf0ppd
Three Central Banks Hold, Face Divergent Economic Headwinds
Three key policy meetings this week. 3 Central Banks, 3 Different Problems. 🇯🇵 BOJ (Today). Hold 0.75%. •BOJ’s vote was 6-3 (3 wanted hike) •Weak yen fuels inflation, but raising rates kills fragile growth •Could hike in June 🇺🇸 Fed Resv (29 Apr). Expect...
Waking Up to Profits with Smooth ZIP Trades
I ❤️ waking up to profits. Had 2 textbook ZIP trades last night - BUY Signal in USDCHF and SELL Signal in CHFJPY Smooth easy smooths with no pullbacks - that's what I like to see 🎯🎯🎯 What is ZIP? https://t.co/DJA8LNSCBa...
Rate‑Hike Dissent Fails, Dollar Rises, Oil Nears $100
Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen: The markets seem nervous. The dollar is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. June WTI, which was at $82.60 on April 17,...
USD Firm, Oil Climbs, Yields Rise, BOJ Holds
$USD is firmer across the board. Oil is higher for the 6th session in the past 7. 10-year yields are higher. BOJ left policy on hold with a 6-3 vote but Gov Ueda failed to confirm the...
Yen Enters Bracketing Mode, Expect Whipsaws and False Breakouts
Yen: "Price equals Time". After a large STD move, the market consolidates in "bracketing mode", which suggests multiple whipsaws and false breakouts. https://t.co/hcp55m124r
Tuesday's Packed Agenda: Rates, Trade, Earnings, Confidence
It was a quiet start to the week for scheduled event risk, but things are picking up fast. Tuesday holds: BOJ rate decision with quarterly outlook; Hong Kong trade balance; Coke and BP earnings and US Conference Board consumer confidence...
SNB Balance Sheet Exceeds GDP, Driven by Foreign Holdings
Meet the SNB balance sheet: 110% of GDP, most assets are foreign currency holdings, and there is a unique ratchet effect tied to the persistent disinflationary pressures. Big fiscal implications. Great piece by @BenignoGianluca https://t.co/5U8fazsXqT (h/t @M_C_Klein) https://t.co/BBRmXx74wL
Fed Banks' Deferred Losses Could Delay Treasury Payments Past 2030
Great note from @billnelson2x2. Each Fed bank has its own deferred asset, a cumulative sum of its losses. It has to be repaid before remittances can be sent to Treasury. Some Fed banks will be paying them off long past...
Dalio Warns Warsh's Fed Appointment Would Risk Premature Rate Cuts
Ray Dalio thinks “it would be a mistake” if Kevin Warsh comes to the Fed and tries to cut rates now https://t.co/WruNFHVCli
Swiss Central Bank’s $1T Balance Sheet Fuels Market Power
Interesting article on some of the implications of the Swiss National Bank's massive balance sheet (worth roughly $1 trillion, mostly due to years of FX interventions) https://t.co/fUDrbynA3y
Weekly Technical Outlook: Central Banks, USD, Gold, Bitcoin,
Central Banks, USD Majors, Gold, Bitcoin, Equities Weekly Technical Outlook (Webinar Archive) https://t.co/Tob4yVQy9i Asset chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/Jg3EvZ7raT
Dollar Drops 10% Post‑tariffs; Another Currency Soars
The US dollar is down 10% since the US began employing tariffs... what currency rise?
Liquidity Sweep Triggers Pullback, Watch AUDJPY Order Block
📊 AUDJPY – Daily Forecast 🚀 Weekly candle closed inside 🧠 👉 This signals liquidity on both sides 🎯 Plan: • Expect Previous Week High sweep 💧 • Then market will enter pullback phase 🔄 📉 Scenario 1: ➡️ After liquidity sweep → look for sell (pullback) 🎯...
Yield‑Yen Trade‑off Fuels Accelerating Inflation Pressure
Yields and yen are most important here. Policymakers have been suppressing 5% US 30yr and 160 USDJPY at the cost of increasing inflation. Inflation pressures are now boiling at a faster rate and will force policymakers to choose one or...
Dollar System Stays Strong Despite Waning US Empire
The US empire may be weakening, but the dollar system is not Eurodollars are offshore credit money. Petrodollars are oil-trade recycling. Confusing them leads to major misunderstanding The dollar may not always dominate but it is getting stronger for now https://t.co/gb9CDsInFw
US Investor Flight Temporarily Fuels Dollar, Soon to Fade
Whenever there are bad shocks, US investors bring money back home, which temporarily boosts the Dollar. That happened in 2008, 2020, 2025 and is what's going on now. Current Dollar strength is temporary and will fade as soon as there's...
Europe's Near‑Zero Growth Heightens Recession Risk Amid Energy Shock
Recession risk in Europe is rising. The 2022 energy shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine was bigger, but growth into that shock was higher as we were coming off the COVID rebound. Now growth is near zero and this shock...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Markets via Hormuz
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── Wait, missing limit. Correct: Wait, still missing. The system cut it, but to fix, I need to include limit.Again, the response had only 3, perhaps the default is 3, so I must specify limit. Looking at the...
Iranian Proposal Lifts Risk Appetite, but USD Caution Persists
Hopes that a new Iranian proposal provides a new off-ramp are lifting risk appetites and weighing on the $USD. Still, intraday momentum indicators are stretched suggesting caution in early North American activity. See https://t.co/6bn4nqt1G3 https://t.co/PXQbWWMffS
Dynamic Currency Conversion Lets Merchants Choose Euro or Dollar
Question for a payments expert. What I pay for something by card in Spain, the reader offers me the choice to pay in euros or dollars. Obviously dollars are removed from my account. And the cafe gets euros. So what’s really going...