Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in March Forecast
Lagarde basically underwriting the idea that the baseline forecasts in March includes two rate hikes
ECB Delays Decision, Promises Review Next Month
The ECB is "not pre-committing" to any decision, but it is "bound to revisit" the situation next month. Hope you you picked up on the nuance.
Yen Surge Exposes Central Banks' Ponzi Economy
Watching the Yen get manipulated stronger (And US Dollar weaker) this morning is just incredible. The side-effects globally is a testament to the fact we are in a centrally-planned ponzi economy where free markets don't really exist in the way have...
Yen Jumps 3% on Speculation of Japanese Intervention
Yen intervention? Bloomberg: "The yen surged as much as 3% as traders speculated Japan is intervening in the foreign-exchange market, hours after officials delivered a “final” warning to investors against selling the currency" https://t.co/ePYGtzQpwG
Lagarde Says “Stagflation” No Longer Applies This Time
Lagarde (only slightly paraphrased): we don't use the term stagflation because this time is different
Lagarde Signals Hawkish Shift, Rate Hike on Table
Here's @lagarde's hawkish signal: "we are certainly moving away from our baseline". The unanimous decision to remain on hold was based on "insufficient information, but a rate hike was also discussed today.
Verbal FX Intervention Fails; Real Action Needed
🚨 USD/JPY just had its biggest drop of the year -500 pips The headlines: 👉Tagged 160.50, highest since July 2024 👉MoF: "final advisory to escape south" 👉Citing "extremely speculative moves" 👉Hinted at coordinated US action The catch: Verbal intervention has a 0% success rate without follow-through....
67‑Year‑Old Lifts 365
What’s the heavier lift: 365 lbs on your 67th birthday or telling your colleagues you changed your mind on rate cuts? Chris Waller seems comfortable with both. (He posted this video on his LinkedIn account) https://t.co/RIAIyJCkUm
ECB Holds Rates at 2%, Flags Inflation Upside, Growth Downside
#ECB keeps rates steady. Deposit rate at 2% as expected. Sees upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. https://t.co/wmrCEOkbf7
ECB Warns of Rising Inflation Risks, Growth Slowdown
🇪🇺 ECB: on alert, but not overreacting 👏 "the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified" "longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although inflation expectations over shorter horizons have moved up significantly"
Yen Surges to Strongest Level Since 2022 Amid Policy‑oil Coordination
Biggest yen jump since December 2022 as Japan "officials" and oil work together. https://t.co/RynfgKJbDD #forex #USDJPY $USO
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 84%, Pushes Official Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 84% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA'S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/vvYHB91ZKo
Questioning ECB’s Early Look at Q2 Forecasts
My question to @Lagarde would be: did the Governing Council have a first look at the Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2? If so, how bad does it look? https://t.co/rvxtO93HNC
Yen Rebounds After Fed’s Hawkish Hold Interpretation
The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention: The North American market understood yesterday’s Fed statement and the three dissents in favor of a neutral bias as a hawkish hold and rallied the dollar in response. Follow-through selling today has been minimal…...
Central Banks Must Stay Steady Amid War‑driven Turmoil
War shock tests central banks’ resolve Linda Yueh on why policymakers may hold their nerve as inflation rises, growth falters and uncertainty deepens https://t.co/VFosKL0tlX
Yen Rebounds on Intervention as US Eyes Iran Strike
Ahead of ECB and BOE outcome, the yen is in the spotlight. It has reversed higher after heightened verbal intervention by Japanese officials. Meanwhile, the US is reportedly considering new military strikes on Iran. Oil extends gains but...
BOJ Faces 3% Core
BOJ risk scenario: core CPI ~3% in 2026–27 as oil $105, yen -10%, stocks -20%. Macro: sustained above-target inflation. Risk: rising inflation expectations. Trade: short-duration JGBs (JPY-hedged). — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
North Korean Won Plummets 69%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 69% against the USD over the past year. WESTERN MEDIA = CONTINUES TO FAIL TO COVER THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY....
Sudan's Pound Plummets, Ranks 4th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 4TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated over 37% against the USD in the past year. https://t.co/ECk4tFBGhH
Iranian Rial Plunges 11% Against USD in Two Days
In the past two days the Iranian rial has reversed course and TANKED. It has depreciated by a STUNNING 11% vs. the USD. https://t.co/o1qfzBl321
Fed’s $9 Trillion Money Printing Drove Inflation, Not Supply Shocks
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth:...
Fed Holds Rates Amid Most Divided Vote Since 1992
FOMC: Fed leaves the FFR unchanged at 3.50-3.75% The vote was the most divided FOMC decision since 1992 (8-4 in favour of holding rates).
UAE Reserves at $285B; March Data Will Test Stress
Counterpoint: the UAE ended February with USD 285b in fx reserves. The first real indicator of stress will come when the Emirates releases data (soon I expect) on end March reserves 1/ https://t.co/eO790Q1e0x
Watch JPY Around Golden Week: 160‑163 Potential
I have consistently C-D tier macro views and, as such, rarely focus on macro trading. That being said, historically JPY intervention is carried out around holidays/illiquid time periods (likely for the most impact) so 160-163 handle + Golden Week holiday...
Powell to Lose QE Chair, Warsh Takes Over
And here is Powell at the press conference: Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants Smaller Balance Sheet But Powell will stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and...
Fed Cuts Raise 30-Year Yield; Inflation Still Looming
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%. They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed....
Explaining Powell Critique Live with Jack Farley, Max Wiethe
I will be on with @JackFarley96 and @maxwiethe in about 15 minutes. And for those torching me on my Powell takes, I will explain further. (For everyone else, Powell is making a terrible mistake by staying.)
Fed Holds Rates, Dissenting Hawk Calls for Cut
Hawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.5to 3.75% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.” The vote was not unanimous in a very unique way. Governor...
History Shows Market Resilience Amid Repeated Currency Crises
Watching the news today feels a lot like watching a movie I’ve seen many times before. In 1971, I witnessed a major currency devaluation that I thought would be a disaster—but the markets actually went up. It was a lesson I...
Yield Caps Hide Fiscal Risk, Depreciate the Yen
The Yen is tumbling. That's happening because the BoJ caps Japanese long-term yields at artificially low levels via JGB purchases. These yield caps prevent the fiscal risk premium from showing up in the bond market, so instead it shows up...
Powell Adopts PR Role to Defend Fed Independence
Seems Powell is going to take up a pseudo PR role for Fed independence now that he is handing off the Chairmanship role. They are putting out very clear messaging pushing back on the political pressure.
Powell: Neutral Rate Uncertain, but We're Near It
Powell says we can't know what the neutral rate is definitively, but says we are pretty close to it now
Fed's Vague “Adjustments” Reveal FOMC Uncertainty
This was NOT a bias. The Fed statement mentioned it as such in the vaguest ways possible "adjustments" instead of rate cuts, which is a reflection of the fact that the FOMC itself is uncertain abt the outlook.
Powell Says He'll Stay, Exit only when Appropriate
Jay Powell: I have no choice but to stay at the Fed as a governor. I will keep a low profile. I will leave when I think it is appropriate to do so. https://t.co/zZifrDb0D5
Powell Stays on for Lawsuits, Not Politics
Powell says his staying on is not a political statement to deny Trump an appointee - says he is staying on due to the lawsuits. Says he long expected to retire and was looking forward to it
Powell to Remain Fed Governor, Echoing 1948 Precedent
POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A GOVERNOR FOR PERIOD OF TIME - Bloomberg **Last time this actually happened? 1948 — Marriner Eccles got the boot as Chair and kept his seat on the Board until 1951. - Grok
Fed Independence Crucial: Expert’s Ready Written Response
He was ready for that question. Written answer - on how important Fed independence is
Fed Faces Unprecedented Internal Division in 21st Century
This might be the most fractious and divided the Fed has been in the 21st century... https://t.co/ejBsNbLtXp
Hammack, Logan’s Hawkish Dissent Fuels
Hammack and Logan dissenting on "additional" leans hawkish. What amazes me is these two are the architects of tapering, then ending QT, and with Perli flooding the system with RMO reserves. These two literally do not understand monetary...
Fed Insiders Signal No Immediate
I don’t read this isn’t a dissent against Powell per se. Hammack, Kashkari, Logan are giving Warsh a heads up that the FOMC isn’t going to fall in line with any sort of immediate push towards easing
Dissents Signal Neutral Bias, Not Powell Weakening
The 3 dissents over the easing bias is not a blow to Powell, like some are saying, but it is a signal to Warsh. The dissents wanted to adopt a more neutral bias. Miran's dissent for a rate cut...
FOMC Holds Rates, Four Dissent Over Easing Bias
Interesting. The FOMC holds at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but there were four dissents - 1 voting (Miran) cut and 3 opposing an inclusion of an "easing bias" in the statement
Fed Holds Rates, Committee Splits on Future Cut Language
Surprising exactly nobody, the Fed kept rates on hold. More interesting: This is the most divided I've seen a committee vote. They're not divided over the decision (except Miran, but who cares), but over the language, and whether to signal the...
Fed Holds Rates 8-4, Divided Over Easing Bias
Fed votes 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most divisive decision since 1992. Miran wanted a 25bp cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan supported the hold but wanted the Fed to remove the easing bias in the statement. The line in question...
Four Fed Dissenters Signal Rare Break From Easing Bias
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. https://t.co/JM88jOXIAg
Fed's Next Move: Markets See Zero Uncertainty
The Fed announces its next rates decision in half an hour, and there is exactly ZERO uncertainty about what it won't do (at least according to Fed Funds futures markets). https://t.co/Ikedm6uh6c
Low
Discipline low = mistakes high. This chart shows: Liquidity → CHoCH → OB → Drop That’s the real model. Follow for real setups. #Forex #Trading #SmartMoney #ICT #smc
USD/JPY Poised for Yearly High Amid Fed Outlook
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Bulls Eye Yearly High- Fed on Tap https://t.co/ccyORpFfkx $USDJPY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/E5R5glIagQ
Spain Seeks ECB Board Seat, Not for Cuerpo
Cuerpo says Spain wants an ECB board seat, but it won’t be for him https://t.co/CTzpWUPcjU via @flacqua @basteiro https://t.co/L5JRxkNcxq
Yen Breaches 160/$: Markets Test Policy Limits
It's not just oil, UK yields, etc... In fact, the pace is starting to feel a little relentless as markets blow through what I regard as various "pay attention" levels. This includes the breach of 160 ¥/$ (CNBC chart below)....