Currencies Social Media and Updates
Currencies Social Media and Updates
Week Ahead: The War and Anticipated Policy Responses Drive the Capital Markets: There are two main drivers in the foreign exchange market: war and the anticipated monetary policy response. May WTI peaked on March 9 near $113.40. Last week, the average… https://t.co/f1ORVJfQwq https://t.co/TxjGQn0AWv
Third attempt at TACO this week (one early in the week by Trump, one Thursday by Netanyahu - was that a NACHO?) Both of those failed because Iran and the bond market both get a say. This TACO attempt and all...
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
In case you missed it, net speculative futures positioning behind $EURUSD posted its biggest weekly 'net drop' on record - an 84K contract drop in the net long. That's a strong move away from the anti-dollar pressure over the past...
Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Rejected at Key Resistance https://t.co/rLrumlAN5T $USDCHF Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/pcvuoorqWD
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
The current FX conundrum perfectly summed up by @EpsilonTheory The war is bullish USD until it isn't. "A paradox is emerging in which the war simultaneously strengthens the dollar's short-term position through traditional crisis demand while eroding the institutional foundations that...
Feeling listless and irritable as I wait for Italy (lhs) to call for the ECB to activate its TPI tool because markets are being anti-Italian and France (rhs) to call for joint EU debt issuance on account of "force majeure"...
If we are now about to enter a Central Bank rate rising period, it's worth considering we are in a very different place to the last rate rising period. Back a few years ago interest rates were artificially low and...
This week we unpack just how trapped central banks are, especially single mandate central banks who are forced to hike into this shock. Shit is not great yo
Fed funds have flipped to tiny pricing for hikes. Completely unforeseeable and insane move from the perspective of where we were a few months ago. We have gone from captured Fed will cut 3 times to oil shock opens door for...
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an...
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
PBOC set the $USD fix today at its lowest level since April 2023. Since the war began, $CNY is the fourth best EM currency, trailing HKD and two high yielders in Latam. YTD, CNY it has only been bested by...
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
$USD was bought aggressively on a hawkish read of Powell's press conference on Wed and was sold harder yesterday in what seems to be an overreaction to the ECB and BOE. It has come back bid. Who wants...
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less...
JPM woke up this Friday morning and chose violence ... looking for back-to-back hikes from both the ECB and BOE.
Dollar pressing range highs just below round 100. Break higher and liquidity tightens. Reject and risk can breathe a bit. $DXY https://t.co/ZvkycsmahB
GUESS WHAT'S NEW TODAY... Yen is spiking higher as USD sells off - that is my MONEY GOES HOME™️ in full view 😭 The market bounce 'looks' like put monetization on dollar dump, BUT don't count your right tail chickens before they...
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
ECB officials see possibility of rate hike at April meeting https://t.co/p0GjFZzqz2 via @jrandow @Alemrome https://t.co/WN1EPwWl0Y
The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term Watch Full Video on YT ➡️ https://t.co/vgIHgyjagj #usd #useconomy #geopolitics
Bank of Canada won’t be cutting rates anytime soon. Inflation is rising because of the war 🇮🇷
🇪🇺 Unfortunately for the ECB, and despite the staff best efforts to use a later-than-usual cut-off date, their baseline scenario looks instantly obsolete. Market pricing for inflation is already consistent with the adverse scenarios. The main question is about indirect effects....
The de-dollarization thesis driving gold may be well and truly dead. I'm acting defensively. I have failed - once again - to internalize a theory of mind for pathological narcissists and psychopaths.
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts...
its funny (to me) that the ECB obviously looked at the BoE statement today and thought "OK, lets not do anything THAT crazy". The BoE... making the ECB seem sensible
If I heard correctly, Lagarde just talked the ECB into two hikes this year with her mic drop at the end.
ECB's Lagarde is asked to be specific on inflation in a bad case scenario. Instead of Powell's "I dunno", Lagarde says: be patient, I'll expand. Longer speech on "particularly attentive to..." -- uses the magic word "second round effect" --...
🚨Every central bank just warned us about inflation Here's what happened this week: ↳ Fed still stuck on easing ↳ ECB and BOE market pricing in 2-3 rate HIKES in 2026 ↳ BOJ keeping its tightening bias intact ↳ SNB hinting at negative rates to...
Big plot twist for the ECB; yes their forecasts might be out of date, but the HICP fcts are reasonably punchy for 2026 ... smart move; the big question though is; why not tighten? They see materially higher inflation and...
🇪🇺 ECB decision more balanced. The GC is "well positioned to navigate this uncertainty", not signalling any imminent move. Risk scenarios to be published at 3:45pm. Key will be "the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects of a stronger and...
#ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.00% as expected. Says war poses upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. Says to decide based on core inflation, transmission strength. Says not pre-committing to particular rate path. https://t.co/9tExdmlBDB
#Gold takes more beating as #BoE grows hawkish mkt prices TWO rate hikes in 2026 #forex
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
the $DXY still gets my vote as the most boring of charts, ironically receiving much commentary and opinion over the years... 🥱🥱🥱 https://t.co/vcUAoh6aPi
Follow our live blog for the latest news and updates on the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision https://t.co/Nc9piHPEdR via @jrandow https://t.co/nzehlM7joh
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge: The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s… https://t.co/L0b4ab2cDv https://t.co/JikD6d1Xxj
We've now reached the point where - four years ago after the invasion of Ukraine - the Brazilian Real began to rally and outperform everyone else. As we settle into a higher-for-longer equilibrium on oil, the same will now start...
$USD surged yesterday during the Fed's press conference. Follow-through buying has been limited today. BOJ, SNB, & Riksbank stood pat. BOE and ECB next but will also hold steady. War rages, and Brent made new highs,...
Traders shift BOE, ECB rates outlook just hours before policy decisions https://t.co/HA0mTq7RsS via @greg_ritchie @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/CmyGExhjII
SNB restates increased resolve on the franc as it holds its rate at zero https://t.co/SZ7RmvXJDF via @bbenrath https://t.co/djvkw40yjQ
🇨🇭 Stronger verbal intervention language from the SNB: "the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". https://t.co/yuDHGc7oUG https://t.co/wcrzVudyN7
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2% target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
Really? Name one start-up think tank that analyzes the latest twist and turns in China's fx policy with any depth. I would humbly submit that this blog is at the analytical frontier, ahead of what most of...
