Risk Appetite Soars as US Halts Hormuz Escort, Dollar Falls
The US has suspended the escort service in the Strait of Hormuz and risk-appetites have jump. Equities and bonds have surged, while the greenback slumps. China re-opens and set USD fix at new multiyear low. See https://t.co/swSYFvpDgy https://t.co/UUCWRyRfJ8
ECB's Gold Revaluation Gains €18.9 Bn From Price Surge
Just catching up on the ECB's 2025 accounts which were out earlier this week and see the gold revaluation account got a nice €18.9 billion uplift from the rise in the price of gold. https://t.co/DDpMzCZMqv
Sweden, Norway Hold Rates Amid Divergent Inflation Paths
Central banks in Sweden and Norway are both set to keep borrowing costs steady this week, albeit against inflation backdrops that contrast starkly between each neighbor https://t.co/iUgLSEz7vW via @ottummelas @CharlesDuxbury https://t.co/BrSbkWSLKj
ECB Wage Tracker Stays Stable, No Second‑round Inflation Signs
🇪🇺 Latest update to the ECB's wage tracker has remained broadly stable around levels consistent with price stability, and showing no signs of second-round effects. https://t.co/lReQ51MJvs https://t.co/50YJRx98ru
Buy Australia, Malaysia FX; Avoid Other Asian Currencies
Btw, the Iran War trade is SELL the FX that loses from the war and BUY the FX that does better. In Asia, Australia and Malaysia sit more pretty on that chart. Meanwhile, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea...
US Halts Naval Escort Project Amid Pakistan
$USD softens POTUS pauses Project Freedom naval escort initiative--said to be at the request of Pakistan and "other countries". US blockade remains in place. June WTI comes off (~1.5%).
Villeroy Says ECB Lacks Data for Rate Hike
ECB doesn’t see enough yet to warrant a rate hike, says Villeroy (who won’t be in office anymore when the ECN next sets rates) https://t.co/jwn0TZ30hT via @WHorobin https://t.co/bqeIXgSyEL
USD/CAD Rebounds, Testing Downtrend Resistance
Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Tests Downtrend Resistance https://t.co/RGjsKfthss $USDCAD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ZJTDP039St
Patience Beats Early Entries: Wait for Real Moves
You’re not losing because of the market… You’re losing because you enter too early. Inducement traps you. Liquidity pays the patient. 👉 Wait for the real move. #ForexReels #ICTTrading #SmartMoneyConcept #ForexTips #reels
Eurodollar Market Independent of Dollar
Disagree here obviously -- The modern eurodollar market developed independently of dollar pegging; the UK is the market's hub and the pound obviously isn't pegged to the dollar ... 1/2
AUD/USD Near Key Resistance, Inflection Risk Rising
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Major Resistance- Inflection Risk Builds https://t.co/idLSndsSs8 $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/8OyUNxFYAT
Eurodollar Crisis Drives Bitcoin Toward $1 Million
I sat down with Nik Bhatia, ex-Treasury bond trader, USC professor, and author of Layered Money and The Bitcoin Age. While Bloomberg's Mike McGlone is calling Bitcoin to $10,000, @timevalueofbtc says $1 million is coming sooner than anyone thinks. "The US built...
QRA's Pause Fuels Asset Rallies, Inflates Debt
The last time the QRA mattered we pivoted from short to long when Janet decided to stop increasing coupon issuance. Every QRA since has left issuance unchanged. Tomorrow will be no different. It's suppressed bond yields from going...
ECB May Hike in June,
🇪🇺 MNI sources: ECB set to hike in June, then keep options open 🇫🇷 France fighting back: *ECB'S VILLEROY: DON'T YET SEE SUFFICIENT SIGNS FOR RATE HIKE ✊
Dollar Remains Unrivaled; Alternatives Lack Appeal
My take on @soarfinancial on the 'de-dollarization' narratives: "The US dollar just DOMINATES EVERYTHING in the financial sphere. There just aren't any alternatives out there that are very attractive." LET'S FACE IT: THE USD IS THE BEST DIRTY SHIRT AROUND. https://t.co/Rtj6bTsKBc
Markets Hold Steady Amid Geopolitical Turmoil Ahead of ISM
Markets are taking geopolitical chaos in stride. ✅ NASDAQ at record highs ✅ Oil down 3.5% ✅ Gold up ✅ USD lower vs majors (except JPY) ✅ RBA hikes, signals pause All eyes on the 10am ISM print - the real tell...
Australia Raises Rates Again, 4.35% Target
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the third straight meeting, 25 bps move up to 4.35%. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/r926jXlyCl
RBA Hikes, Signals Pause; JPY Weakest, Oil Drops
$USD is mostly a little softer as the North American session gets under way. $JPY is the weakest of the G10 currencies, off about 0.25%. Local mkts remain closed tomorrow. RBA hikes rates but signals a pause,...
Price Shock Escalates to Broad Inflation, Phases I‑II Confirmed
Remember my four-phase framework for the economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War? This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I and II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into...
AUD/USD Slides; Short Below 0.7135, Target 0.7050
Macro: AUD/USD weakens after RBA hike; dollar strength & geopolitics. Key: 20-DMA 0.7135 pivot; break risks 0.7050 → 0.6840. Risk: bearish RSI/MACD. Trade: short <0.7135, target 0.7050. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Patience Beats Prediction: Trade Breaker Block Setups
Stop chasing the move ❌ Start waiting for the setup ✅ Breaker Block Model simplified: 📌 Sweep liquidity 📌 Market shifts (MSS) 📌 Breaker Block forms 📌 Price returns → ENTRY Your edge is not prediction… Your edge is patience and confirmation. Save...
China, Indonesia Debut Cross‑border QR Payments, Boosting Yuan
SCMP: "China and Indonesia have launched a new cross-border QR payment system, marking the latest step in Beijing’s drive to build a regional digital payments network as it pushes to internationalise the yuan and reduce dependence on the US dollar." https://t.co/NEt62G5jZ7
Bank of Italy Pushes EU to Assess Tokenized Euro Payments
JUST IN: Bank of Italy urges EU to evaluate a tokenized version of Europe’s euro payments system.
RBA Raises Rates to 2024 High Amid Stubborn Inflation
JUST IN: Australia's central bank hikes rates to the highest since 2024 as inflation remains elevated.
Massive Money Printing Highlights Bitcoin’s Timeliness
Governments have printed more money in the last 5 years than the previous 100 combined. And people still ask if it’s too late to buy Bitcoin
China's Banks Surge Net Dollar Holdings, Data Shows
Indeed. China's own banking data shows a big jump in its net dollar holdings in the last few quarters. And that data excludes the dollar assets of the policy banks and China's various sovereign funds https://t.co/DSd2RXCiOA
FOMC Unity Masks Dissent; Expect USD Short on Hawkish Fed
Macro: FOMC consensus exceeds visible dissent. Key factor: uncertainty amplified votes. Risk: markets may overreact to perceived division. Trade: buy USD short on Fed's hawkish tilt. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
US Blockade Cuts Iranian Rial 20% in Three Weeks
Since the start of the US blockade on April 13, the Iranian Rial is down 20 percent against the Dollar. We're only three weeks into the blockade and this is the most visible sign it's already meaningfully disrupting Iran's economy....
Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs Fuel Mixed Market Outlook
Markets are mixed this morning and here's why it matters 👇 Iran allegedly shot at US ships overnight. US denies damage but the message is clear, tensions are escalating, not cooling. Oil popped, then faded. Dow down, NASDAQ up, S&P flat. Add...
SOFR Shows Near‑Zero Rate Cuts as Hidden Stimulus Fuels Growth
As of today, SOFR curve is pricing in ~ 8 bps of cuts in 2027 and ~2 bps of cuts in 2028. Cuts have finally been priced out as there is very little basis for them. Policymakers are using more...
US Capital Inflows Have Doubled Since 2018 Despite Predictions
Luke has been saying this trend would end since 2018. And during that time the global capital the US has sucked into its capital markets has...doubled. https://t.co/f1wrZt6C6Q
Japan's Debt, Not FX Intervention, Drives Yen Rise
After last week's intervention, $/JPY is climbing back towards 160, which repeats the pattern we saw in 2024 and earlier this year. Intervention is just treating the symptom. Japan's mountain of high public debt is the cause. That's what needs...
Auction Theory Pinpoints Bottom Amid Fake News Crash
🚨 Market just crashed 300 points in MINUTES on fake Iran news. While everyone was getting stopped out, auction theory printed the bottom to the TICK. 🎯 The rules never change: 🟢 Close at high = buyers won the auction 🔴 Close...
ECB June Rate Hike Nearly Certain, Says Kazimir
ECB rate hike in June is ‘all but inevitable,’ Kazimir says https://t.co/3f8YLT6jId via @Dan_Hornak @mseputyte https://t.co/YDTun4Qfrh
Ceasefire Risk Drives Oil Surge, Boosts Dollar
US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher: The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran...
Trade Smart: Wait for Liquidity Sweep, Not Guess
Stop trading randomly ❌ Start reading the market like smart money ✅ Candle Range Theory (CRT) simplified: 📌 Accumulation → Setup builds 📌 Manipulation → Liquidity sweep 📌 Distribution → Real move starts Your edge is NOT prediction… Your edge is waiting. ✔️ Identify CRT range ✔️ Wait for...
Kenya's Inflation Misses Target as Money Supply Surges
Kenya’s inflation comes in at 5.6%/yr in April. That’s ABOVE its 5%/yr target. Kenya’s money supply (M3) grows at 11.7%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.7%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 5%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
Venezuela's Hyperinflation Mirrors Its 632% Money Supply Surge
Today, Venezuela’s inflation is 490.3%/yr. That’s the world’s highest. Venezuela’s money supply (M3) is growing at 632.2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/mFU1E5Z9TN
EUR/USD Rally Stalls at Key Resistance, Future Direction Uncertain
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Fades at Major Resistance—Next Move Critical https://t.co/oXCaH1uocd $EURUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/nwslbsvyTS
AI Stress‑tested Strategy Still Profitable Despite Realistic Costs
🛑Stop paper trading for a week and calling it "research." I used Claude AI to run a 250-day stress test on my strategy, accounting for: ✅ Slippage ✅ Missed fills ✅ Choppy markets ✅ Commissions and it still made money see how...
Swiss April Inflation Expected at 0.6%, Easing SNB Pressure
Switzerland’s April inflation is due on Tuesday, with economists anticipating an outcome of 0.6%, the highest since 2024. Such a result may lessen pressure on the SNB to intervene to curb inflows into the franc https://t.co/GMc7ens4Ew via @CraigStirling https://t.co/Exax6VfThi
Turkey's Money Supply Outpaces Target, Fueling Loose Policy
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: CBRT's Apr. survey has Turkey’s year-end inflation expectations at 27.53%/yr. T’s Money Supply grows at 39.9%/yr. That's well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting T’s inflation target of 16%. T’S MONETARY POLICY = LOOSE. https://t.co/iHtsm4n7T8
Libya's Oil Revenues Triple, Currency Gains 34% Amid Iran War
Since the start of the Iran war, Libya’s oil revenues have nearly TRIPLED, from $1 billion in February to $2.9 billion in April. Not surprisingly, in the Feb-April period, the Libyan dinar has appreciated by 34% vs. the USD. LIBYA = ONE...
Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Tanks Philippine Peso, Fuels Global Animosity
Thanks to Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Philippine peso has tanked. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO MAKE ENEMIES. https://t.co/gs3D9z92mY
Fed Cautious After 3.5% PCE, Buy
Fed cautious after PCE 3.5%: services inflation and oil/geopolitics lift risks; divided FOMC delays cuts. Trade: buy short‑duration Treasuries. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Independence Is a Myth, Powell Chasing Dragons
Fed Independence is a Myth. A bedtime story they tell people to make them think someone is fighting for the little guy against the big bad Government. Powell's ego has him fighting dragons.
Fed Split, Japan's Massive Yen Defense, Markets on Borrowed Time
The Fed just split 8-4. Most divided vote since October 1992. Japan torched ¥5.4 trillion — 7% of FX reserves — in a single day defending the yen at 160. S&P at a record. Nasdaq's best month since 2020. This is what borrowed...
Swap Lines Make Recipients Fed Branches Without Voting Power
The best way to think about USD Swap Lines is that they basically transform the recipient into a new regional branch of the Federal Reserve or US Treasury but the new branch doesn't have any voting rights with regards to...
Reverse Carry Trade Explained: Oil, Yen, Japan Insights
I have been quiet long enough. This is perhaps the most important thread on X ever published. And the most powerful and impactful comic book you will ever read. If you want to understand the reverse carry trade, bookmark this. Oil, Yen, Japan,...
US Blockade Sparks Panic, Capital Flight, Rial Collapse
An underappreciated channel of how the US blockade works is to cause panic and capital flight in Iran. That's why the Rial is falling sharply. A country like Iran sees its currency as a status symbol, so they'll have resisted...