Two‑Month Embargo Cuts China’s Emergency Reserves ~10%
"Even a two-month embargo would only see China depleting its emergency reserves by about 10%." https://t.co/9wseXtRVym https://t.co/ZfwXR9aAGx
US Dollar Gains as Optimism Overpowers Global Pessimism
Optimism Weighs on the Greenback: North American participants shrugged off the pessimism seen in Asia Pacific and Europe yesterday after the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend. The optimism was contagious and reports that another round of… https://t.co/xjkwmLy0gV https://t.co/5ocdwj561m
USD Slides Broadly as Iran Tail Risk Fades
USD trading down on a a very broad basis, as the market continues to price lower tail risk around Iran, despite the day to day fluctuations in spot oil prices
Sudan's Pound Ranks 6th Worst, Down 26% Amid War
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 26% against the USD over the past year. Given Sudan’s brutal civil war, it’s surprising that the pound hasn’t depreciated by more....
FT Unveils China's “Sock 2.0
My work on this earth may be nearly over -- or at least my work of the last 4ys could be in its final chapter. The FT's Big Read is on the China sock 2.0 (one of my favorite phrases) and...
Media Misstates Rial, Actually Up 8% Since War
Since Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, frequent media reports indicate that the value of the rial has plunged. WRONG. Today, the rial fell just 0.3% vs the USD. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, the rial has gained 8%...
North Korean Won Plummets 62%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 62% against the USD over the past year. THE COLLAPSE OF THE WON = THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/dxHRFaYUhS
Stocks Rally on Ceasefire Hopes; Commodities Stay Cautious
Stock markets and the US dollar are painting a rosy picture, with traders seemingly seeing a ceasefire heralding the end of the US-Iran war. Bonds, gold, and oil prices are telling a different story. #IranWar #StockMarket #gold #oil #macro #trading https://t.co/wLRi4EJNxA
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 84%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 84% against the USD over the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/gLHWv0eqUW
Iran's
@ResourceTalks I mention what most people miss: that I am the only reliable source of inflation measurements in Iran. "Since the war started, the Iranian rial has appreciated about 9-11% against the dollar, and inflation is down from over 80%/yr to...
Weekly Technical Outlook: USD, Major Pairs, and Gold
US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Gold Weekly Technical Outlook (Webinar Archive) https://t.co/8ZwYFGI6Sm Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/BpRaX96dnw
US Deficit Not Caused by Dollar, Says Obstfeld
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar Hugely important NEW essay by Maury Obstfeld @PIIE ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focus. https://t.co/sWxu77W2qk
Turkey's Currency Intervention Masks Pre‑Existing Current‑Account Deficit
Turkey obviously intervened heavily to limit depreciation pressure (and an inflationary shock) in March (and I guess bought a bit of fx back last week). But Turkey's real problem is that its current account deficit was widening even before the oil...
Sell Limit AUDNZD: Target 1.1972, Manage Risk
AUDNZD SELL LIMIT 1.21497 SL 1.22124 TP 1.19720 📊 Trading Instruction ⚠️ If price reaches the target before our trade activates, we will delete the pending order 💰 Always follow proper money management 🤲 Starting our first trade of the week in the name of Allah
Hungarian Forint Leads Global Currency Gains Today
Hungarian forint is far and away the best performing major currency in the world today https://t.co/fg6Z1FKw5u
Unveiling the Dollar’s Parallel Life
A cup of tea and Sunday as the Lord intended: listening and learning about The Dollar's Parallel Life https://t.co/pxVH4gPcrk with the brilliant Izzy Kaminska. https://t.co/VhALGHNKQm
Dollar Spikes as US‑Iran Talks Fail, Safe‑haven Demand Rises
JUST IN: The US dollar surges after US-Iran peace talks collapse, driving a fresh demand for safe-haven assets.
Read the Calendar Before Charts: 10‑Minute Market Primer
Most traders obsess over charts 📊 but ignore what actually moves markets first. Here’s the 10-minute morning routine I’ve used for 20+ years to read the calendar, headlines, and signals from bonds, oil, and gold before any trade 🎯 https://t.co/jEK13r3Nke https://t.co/jEK13r3Nke
Forint Surges 1.9% to Three‑year High Post‑Orbán
#Hungary’s Forint jumped 1.9% against the Euro to a 3y high after voters ousted Orbán. https://t.co/k3NT819BFI https://t.co/UvqaDvox2t
Egypt's Inflation Surge Mirrors Excess Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 15.2%/yr. Egypt's money supply is growing at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Egypt's 3-5%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/Daeo3HbmBW
Turkey Drains Securities and Gold to Fund FX Intervention
Indeed. Turkey sold a ton of fx (essentially draining its securities portfolio) and sold/ swapped gold to generate even more fx to fund its massive March intervention ... 1/x https://t.co/RsDslEBwvB
Light Data Week Ahead, Keep an Eye on Iran
This week looks like a lighter data week which watch Iran 🇺🇸 US -PPI -Beige Book -Empire State -Philly Fed 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ IP -EZ CPI Revisions 🇬🇧 GB GDP & IP 🇦🇺 AU -Jobs report -Inflation Expectations 🇳🇿 NZ PMI Composite & Services 🇨🇳 CN GDP, IP & Retail Sales
Turkey Alone Cuts Central Bank Gold; Others Remain Flat
There's endless chatter central banks are selling gold. For the 3 central banks for which we have weekly data (India, Thailand, Turkey), only Turkey has seen gold holdings fall lots (-$20 bn). Gold holdings are flat for the other two....
Turkey Sells $20bn Gold as Lira Faces Depreciation Risk
If negotiations with Iran fail, Turkey will be immediately back in the firing line of global markets. It sold and swapped 128 tons of gold to bolster its FX reserves by around $20 bn in recent weeks, a sign of...
Israel's Inflation Hits Target, Money Supply On‑Track
Israel’s inflation is 2.0%/yr. That's w/i Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.08%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/lQDMrCEK46
Oil Surge Triggers BOJ Hikes, Gold Targets New Highs
Domino Theory fourth iteration published on YouTube. Oil spike catalyst forces Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold/silver retest previous all-time highs before continuing. Gold-oil peg ratio stabilizes currencies. Supply shock required for three-four digits.
2020‑22 Saw 40% of All USD Created, Ignored
Never, ever forget. Over 40% of all US dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2022. Yet, central bankers and Wall Street Research lectured against a hard asset portfolio and dramatically downplayed currency debasement. https://t.co/M7RQTCMivr
Dollar Reversal Signals Enduring Weak‑dollar Era
The magnitude of the reversal in the dollar may be the most important move we saw this week. Welcome to a weaker-dollar world. Upside moves are likely to be limited and short-lived, with a persistent pull back to the downside like a...
Dollar Poised for Further 5% Decline Amid Widening G10 Gap
The Dollar has a lot further to fall. Look at the gap that's opened up between the Dollar versus the G10 (blue) and the corresponding interest rate differential (black). We're talking about another 5% drop as negotiations continue and war...
Ceasefire Confirmed, US‑Iran Talks Push Dollar Lower
Earlier this week, I predicted we'd get a ceasefire. We did. The US and Iran are negotiating, a big step forward. Lots of details to iron out, but the war is ending, which is hugely risk positive. As a result,...
IMF Admits Currency Intervention Fuels Depreciation, Balances External Accounts
Brad Setser is pleased to see the IMF conceding that intervention by a country in its currency and external accounts “can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances”. He is being quite polite. We have known for...
Central Banks' Gold Reserves Now Surpass US Dollar Holdings
JUST IN: Central banks' gold reserves hit a record $3.87 trillion, topping adjusted US Dollar reserves at $3.73 trillion by $140 billion, as gold assets tripled since 2022 while USD reserves fell $300 billion due to geopolitical tensions.
China’s Low Inflation Reflects Sub‑golden M2 Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.0%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Iran Pushes Hormuz Fees in Rial as Currency Gains 9%
Iran’s parliament is trying to ensure that Hormuz transit fees will be paid in RIAL. I currently measure that the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs. the USD since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran. STAY TUNED. https://t.co/o5Mv9sigwg
IMF Acknowledges Currency Intervention Drives Depreciation, Improves Balance
Joe Gagnon (@GagnonMacro) should take a victory lap; the IMF has conceded intervention does have a real impact -- "A growing empirical literature finds that such intervention can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances" 1/
Close to Deadline: Hedge Risky US‑Iran Exposure Now
Seriously, we have less than 40 minutes until exchange hours close and we loose liquidity for the week. If you have exposure that you feel is 'risky' should the US-Iran conflict kick off again over the weekend, consider cutting or...
Inflation Outlook and Fed Path Discussed on CNBC
Coming up on CNBC with Kelly Evans & Steve Liesman to talk inflation and the road forward with the Federal Reserve.
Dollar Slides, Commodity Currencies Surge as War Winds Down
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
Brazil Real Surges as Markets Sense Ukraine De‑escalation
As soon as markets decided Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wasn't going to lead to WW3, Brazil's Real began rallying hard. It's the same now. The US is clearly eager for a ceasefire and trying to de-escalate. The Brazilian...
Anchored Inflation Expectations Reduce Fed Urgency on Oil Shocks
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
US Inflation Hotter Yet Below Forecast, Oil Drop Helps
⚠️ US inflation 🔥hotter than prior month Cooler than forecast 🥶 With Oil Drop, inflation fears easing CPI MoM 0.9% in line (Prev 0.3%) CPI YoY 3.3% (Forecast 3.4%, Prev 2.4%) Core CPI MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) Core CPI YoY 2.6% (Forecast...
G10 Currency Consolidation Positive, Weekend Risks Loom
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly…...
US Inflation Remains Tame Despite Oil Price Spike
How bad is the US inflation picture? The spike in oil prices will push up March CPI later today, but - under the hood - inflation is well behaved. Yesterday's PCE reading for February showed core services inflation (blue) slowing....
G10 FX Consolidates Amid US CPI, Canada Jobs, Geopolitical Tension
The G10 fx consolidation today looks constructive. Today's North American highlights including US March CPI and Canada's jobs data. Middle East ceasefire is frayed but intact ahead of the weekend negotiations. Hungary holds key election too. See https://t.co/ilDfPE14fW https://t.co/vM5PZMv4eI
Stripe Already Offers Free FX Quotes API in Beta
I was going to tweet @stripe should add a free exchange rates API after my OpenExchangeRates API started rate limiting me aggressively Then I searched and it already exists and is in beta called the Stripe FX Quotes API I'll try it...
Higher Oil Prices Set to Spike CPI, Live Trade
Today we'll see the first impact of higher oil prices on CPI. The news could rock the markets like no other piece of fundamental data. We are going to trade it LIVE and see if we can get FUNDED in one trade. Join...
Libya’s Oil Steady, Prices Surge, Dinar Jumps 27%
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Libya's oil production has stabilized at ~1.3 million barrels/day and the price has SOARED. As night follows day, the Libyan dinar APPRECIATED by 27% vs. the USD. https://t.co/5PPdIEUYSV
Tax, Not Dollar, Is the Main Barrier to FII Inflows
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
Pakistan's Money Supply Outpaces Golden Rate, Fueling Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's March inflation is 7.3%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15%/yr. That’s ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5-7%/yr. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/IKlK5BLB5t
Gold Overtakes Treasuries in Central Bank Reserves
🔥Gold is making history: Gold now makes up 24% of global central bank reserves, surpassing US Treasuries at 21% for the first time since the mid 1990s. This is a complete reversal from Q4 2015, when Treasuries made up 33% of reserves...