War and Hormuz Stalemate: Each Blocks the Other
They won’t end the war until Hormuz opens. But Hormuz won’t open until the war ends.🤔 https://t.co/z3QG3m2ZIs
Defense Spending Surge Fuels Unseen Innovation Arms Race
I'm proud to launch Sage Road's sixth report, which focuses on "Defense Innovation" (read the Executive Summary here: https://t.co/rRtYxEUTE9). Accelerating global defense spending is poised to run headlong into accelerating innovation with market participants underestimating the breadth of implications to...
Weekend Strikes Exploit Market Closures and Holiday Gaps
✅ Possible wknd invasion/raid when the markets are closed. ✅ Both of Israel's attacks on Iran (June 13) & (February 28)—occurred on Saturdays (markets closed). ✅ Easter Monday means a 3-day weekend window instead of the usual 2. Easter...
Iran Offers Ceasefire for Strait Access, US Demands Opening
The way out of this mess, according to our geopolitics guy: The TACO was trailed by yesterday's talk about leaving others to free up the strait. Trump's latest burp today hardens this somewhat when, in answer to his own claim that...
Trump Threatens Europe's Reliance on U.S. Defense Monopoly
What if I told you that for decades, this was largely a U.S. policy -- that Europe largerly disarmed, weakened its defense industries, and handed its security over to the United States, making itself dependent? What if I told you that...
Clarify U.S. Military Tear‑Gas Policy for Urban Combat
I have advocated for a better understanding and policy of when the U.S. military can or cannot use tear gas (riot control agent), especially in high intensity urban warfare scenarios where even recent use such as in the Battle of...
Restrict Agent Permissions to Mitigate Data Exfiltration
Why I am using agents on locked down sandboxes on EC2 instances and still have more to do. I don’t give agents credentials for the most part. The data needs to somehow be exfiltrated and sent back to the attacker....
FCC Backs US Drone Industry Amid Anduril Showcase
AMERICAN DRONE DOMINANCE I just visited with Anduril for demonstrations of their drone & counter-drone technologies. Today, the FCC is launching a proceeding to support our domestic drone industry. President Trump has been clear that America’s innovators will lead the way. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/IETZQ5S08H
US Ground Deployments to Middle East Irreversible, Trump Unfazed
I talked to @DavidCharter @thetimes about the latest US ground force deployments to the Middle East. Regardless of what Trump may say, once these deployments are in motion they are hard to stop -- as is Trump's willingness to use...
Iran's Weakness Prompts Calls for Global Hormuz Intervention
"Mission accomplished" We're out of here soon. Iran begged us to stop because it's to weak to move Rest of the world should fix Hormuz Then, a big military hit on Iran like the fireworks finale on the 4th of July Your list...
CrowdStrike Becomes AI Era’s Core Security Layer
AI-driven cyberattacks are scaling rapidly — and $CRWD is positioning itself as a core security layer for the AI era AI is not only increasing attack volume, but also redefining how attacks are executed. Security is shifting from reactive to autonomous. $CRWD...
US Ignored Red Sea Base Upgrades, Prioritized Pacific Against China
“The Biden and Trump administrations didn’t act on recommendations to upgrade a network of Saudi bases near the Red Sea, focusing instead on strengthening the American military position in the Pacific to counter China…” Yeah, so about that… https://t.co/lWaC9qdDQK
Graham’s Shift Signals Trump’s Hidden 4‑D Iran Strategy
Why is Lindsey Graham (arguably the warmonger-in-chief of the Iran war) now advocating for “winding down” the Iran war, given that by all accounts, it is an elaborate 4-D chess play by Trump that is going according to plan or...
Iran Rejects Trump's Claim, Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed
Iranian Republic Media: The Strait of Hormuz will not open based on Trump's absurd claims: Bloomberg
Russia Bans Apple ID Payments to Curb VPN Use
Russia's Ministry of Digital Development has ordered mobile operators to disable Apple ID payments in a bid to make accessing VPNs harder. https://t.co/oKO2qFNeHk
Caught Between Alarmist Labels and Gulf Military Optimism
Starting to slip into a more familiar and comfortable position in which half my replies accuse me of being an alarmist permabull and the other half think I'm woefully sanguine about the US military assets heading for the Gulf. https://t.co/4lySW5Xl92
Iran Conflict Scenarios Push Oil Prices Above Pre‑War Levels
My rough Iran War scenario probabilities over the next month are: 🌮 40% unilateral TACO, Iran maintains some hybrid control of Strait 🪖 30% boots on the ground, strait stays blocked, spiked risk of more upstream attacks, global economy withers 🤷🏻♂️...
Trump Threatens NATO Exit as Iran War Looms
Trump Says U.S. May Exit Iran War Soon and Threatens to Quit NATO, as Oil Crisis Escalates. A global economic mess ahead? Is Putin smiling if US leaves NATO? https://t.co/wbm30dgf7R
Iran's Terrorist Regime Must Not Acquire Nuclear Weapons
The Islamic Regime in Iran, not only a terrorist. regime, but the greatest state sponsor and exporter of terrorism in the world can never have a nuclear weapon. If the last 47 years is any predictor of their continued behavior,...
Quantum Computers Require Far Fewer Resources to Crack Encryption
Quantum computers need vastly fewer resources than thought to break vital encryption - Ars Technica https://t.co/pLuvHMFLOP
Trump Ended Carter Doctrine, Shaping Iran War Politics
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @gbrew24 about Trump killing the Carter Doctrine and how to think about the political contours of the Iran War on *all* sides of the conflict and...
Iran's Illogical Oil Strikes Ignore Real Supply Routes
Legitimate questions: 🚨An oil facility that cannot export anyway due to the ongoing crisis at the Strait of Hormuz. Given the limited number of missiles and drones available to Iran, why use one to strike such a facility? 🚨An oil tanker that...
Deliberate Cohesion Needed for Combat-Ready Units Amid Digital Distractions
Want Combat Ready Units? Then you have to be deliberate about building unit cohesion in our world of ubiquitous online connections, social media, smart phones, distractions. My latest article @WestPoint_USMA @WarInstitute https://t.co/yfviYCzXws
Trump Administration Plans Public Notice for U.S. Drone Dominance
D.C. Memo: @BrendanCarrFCC Expected to Release Public Notice on Achieving U.S. Drone Dominance: “@POTUS Trump has been clear that the Administration will act to secure our airspace and unleash American drone dominance,” Carr said. https://t.co/Ep5RQw5h6z https://t.co/4obcEG0BWt
Europe's Security Hinges on Ukraine Alliance and Nuclear Deterrent
I think that at this stage it is already a settled matter that the future of Europe’s security lies in a direct military, economic, and technological alliance with Ukraine + a unified European nuclear deterrent. That is, if we want to...
Trump Allegedly Plotting an Invasion of Iran
I have not listened to Starmer, but I am in no doubt Trump intends to invade Iran.
Base Access Is Political, Not Transactional
Spain, Italy, France restricting base access/overflight is a reminder: these permissions are always political, contingent on the specific situation, & treating allies transactionally makes access problems far more likely. https://t.co/GclkTAfsNM?
Unlikely They'd Share Sensitive Sensor Code with India
Were they really going to hand over their source codes for their most sensitive sensors and their EW suite to India? Was this part of a contract? That seems... Unlikely.
Iranian Carriers Rely on Unarmed Supply Ships, Sinking Battleship Implausible
Our carrier groups near Iran. They need a constant resupply of jet fuel and munitions. They get them from oilers and ammo ships. Oilers and ammo ships have no defensive weaponsz Iran hasn’t even been able to hit one, much less sink any. So...
Asymmetric Wars Threaten Global Catastrophe Without Exit
Asymmetry in warfare is a massive problem in David and Goliath engagements. This is the most extreme example I can think of since the Vietnam war. Anyone got more appropriate examples please share in the comments. With no off ramp...
Navy Delays Hormuz Reopening Amid Anti‑American European Rhetoric
Spent all day in DC talking to Navy and military sources. My Hormuz Hypothesis stands: the Navy appears to be in no rush to reopen the strait. The question remains: what is this administration trying to leverage? Nobody I talked to is...
U.S.
“We are attacking every center of gravity right now…it is a system that’s been attacked, every capability that Iran has has been dismantled not just for today, but for tomorrow…attacking not only their capability but their will.”My talk tonight with...
UAE Urges US Join Multinational Effort to Open Hormuz
Trump wants to leave opening the Strait of Hormuz to other countries. The U.A.E. wants the U.S. to be part of a multi-national coalition to open the waterway and is willing to join the fight. with @summer_said @DavidSCloud https://t.co/N8BEqgKnzg
Iran's Navy Collapse Exposes Mark Carney's Incompetence
In January, Iran had a stronger Navy than Canada. Now Iran’s navy has been sunk. I hope everyone now understands how completely full of 💩 Mark Carney is.
NATO's Greenland Pledge Exposed by Its Own Naval Failures
Who else remembers when the NATO said their Navies could “stand together” to protect Greenland from the US military? Turns out NATO can’t even defend their own merchant ships from a Navy that’s already been sunk.
Only Sustained Pressure Can Curb Iran’s Escalating Aggression
If the US backs down, Iran aggression goes on steroids. The only leverage is sustained, credible pressure writes @mshmena https://t.co/mEZqtxDmKD
Trump’s Greenland Warning Proves NATO’s Strategic Gaps
Trump said we need Greenland because we can’t trust NATO to let us use it in a war. He said we need a battleship 100x more powerful to keep straits open. Europe laughed. Trump was right. https://t.co/PXEA9NtlX7
Europe's Actions Prove US Needs Greenland Bases
Europe basically providing the evidence for why America needs military bases in Greenland. Which we will frustratingly have to use one day to protect Europe (again).
Admiral Shrugged Despite Prior Warning of Destroyer Shortage.
Reminder: @michaelgwaltz very clearly showed the top Navy Admiral we wouldn’t have enough destroyers with enough to do things like keep a strait open FOUR YEARS AGO And the Admiral mostly shrugged.
Iran's Threat Highlights AI as U.S. Security Issue
if iran has threatened to attack US AI companies and data centers does that mean AI is a matter of US national security or no? asking for a friend
Ranked #1 Among 2026’s Top Cybersecurity Influencers
15 Top Cybersecurity Influencers to Follow in 2026 https://t.co/eQ2VTDNFCa A real honor to be listed #1. Great to be featured along with 14 terrific cybersecurity colleagues #cybersecurity #influencers
War's Timing Unclear Amid Iran Threat, No Coalition
One month into the war and we'll get a clear explanation (maybe?) for the motivations and objectives for why we needed to go to war at this time and in this way. Iran has been a threat to its neighbors and...
US Military Outlines Emerging Moon Strategy
The US military is developing a strategy for the Moon. Here's where things stand. https://t.co/7DZaZ8Dmnn
Europe Will Rearm Regardless; Neighbors Seek New Security Guarantees
1. NATO or not, Europa will rearm (which is actually the discussion that started everything) 2. If NATO ruptures the countries nabouring Russia, ie Baltikum, Finland, Polen etc will need to seek Ukranian or US security garanties / alliance
Trump Claims Iran War's Sole Aim: Halt Nuclear Program
trump now says only one goal in iran war: to ensure they don’t develop nuclear weapon upside: new war goal achieved downside: pretty much everything else
War Targets Will, Not Just Destruction, via Strategic Pressure
"War is a contest of will. Striking a center of gravity is not about destruction alone. It is about compelling the enemy to do your will through the use, or threat of use, of force, including military action, sanctions, and...
Meloni Mocks Trump's NATO Claim with Sarcastic Retort
Donald Trump: “NATO is zero without America” Italian PM Meloni: “Cool… so should we shut down your bases, cut trade, or just storm McDonald’s? https://t.co/t6CHjM7ouU
China’s Hardline Shift on Tehran Mirrors Past Pyongyang Tactics
Pretty surprising if folks ever thought Beijing would put the strong arm on Tehran in this way. A closer look at China’s tactics (and non-tactics) with Pyongyang over the decades would have been instructive.
Questioning the Claim of Massive Ship Traffic in Hormuz
Who is telling @POTUS that "TREMENDOUS NUMBERS OF SHIPS" were sailing through the Strait of Hormuz? https://t.co/D39V2wVqPL
Iran Ramps Missile Strikes as US‑Israel Hit Steel Plants
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-Asia ─────── Iran fired eight missiles at Israel yesterday and three more since midnight last night, indicating sustained aggression. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted Mobarakeh and Khuzestan steel plants in Iran, disrupting industrial capacity. Iranian drone struck a Kuwaiti...