Iran's Air Defenses Are Limited and Localized
I don't think people appreciate just how little of the country the IRAF and IRGCASF were capable of defending. Very few countries attempt to defend all of their air space, they have to pick and choose. Iran's defenses were heavily localized.
Reliable Iran War Sources Still Hold Up After Two Weeks
My list of accounts to follow for quality information about the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz holds up two weeks later… 👇👇
Europe's Reluctance Highlights Trump‑Era Ally Aggression
FWIW, I personally think Europe should participate in keeping the Strait safe, but the lack of willingness to do so is obviously another sign of the impact of nonstop rhetorical aggression against allies since Trump took office
Biden Didn't Hand over $400 Billion in Cash Equipment
Oh, so now it turns out Biden “gave” us $400 billion of “equipment in cash”!
China Realizes Hard Power Needed Beyond Economics
"China Is Learning the Lessons of Hard Power" @ForeignPolicy Great analysis. I agree. https://t.co/lY4cNmw8Do China Is Learning the Lessons of Hard Power Economic strength alone is insufficient If the United States can dismantle that pillar in a region closely tied to China’s energy...
Leaked Allegations Unfounded; Caldwell Secures ODNI Role
Would note that commentary like this follows @PeteHegseth firing @dandcaldwell and others last year at the Pentagon and alleging they leaked classified information. No evidence emerged supporting that, and Caldwell just got a new job at ODNI, as @GregJaffe and @julianbarnes...
Israel's Strikes Aim to Enable Iranian Regime Overthrow
Decapitation of Basij leadership, headquarters/infrastructure strikes, checkpoint hunting. IMO Israel is doing the work to set the conditions for the population to take back their government when the time comes.
Consult Bill Kristol First, Then Celebrate the Iran Strategy
Guys, the PROPER way to attack Iran would have been to go over the risks of not attacking with Bill Kristol and ask him for his advice. Then, laud him in public for it, keeping him in the loop about the...
Targeting Iran's Elite May Open Negotiation Path
Great analysis, I agree with @stavridisj “This is a big deal, if killing Khamenei was a 10, this is a 8 1/2…this is a big deal taking these two out…drilling down below the 4 star, 3 star, 2 star [Iran political...
UK Adviser Calls Witkoff, Kushner Israeli Assets Fueling War
Britain’s national security adviser Jonathan Powell: “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.”
Trump’s “We Don’t Need Help” Risks U.S. Isolation
If you aspire to primacy, then "WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE" are words that may very well come back to bite the United States in the ass.
Iran Vows to Fight On Despite Leader’s Death
"The cable, circulated by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem on Friday, relayed an Israeli assessment that Iran’s regime is 'not cracking' and is willing to 'fight to the end' despite the Feb. 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and...
US Urges Syria to Deploy Troops in Lebanon Against Hezbollah
The United States has encouraged Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah - Sources briefed on the matter.
Ukraine’s Drones Now Threaten Every Russian Region
How it started: Kyiv in 3 days How it's going, 4 years later: Shoigu says "...the pace of development of [Ukrainian] unmanned drone systems and the sophistication of the methods used to deploy them are such that no region of Russia...
Russia Backs Cuba After Trump's “Take” Comment
Russia says it supports Cuba after Trump says he will 'take' the Communist republic https://t.co/VoBuULLvdn
DNI Resigns, Claims Iran Poses No Imminent Threat
Do you think the U.S. varsity media will put it this way? “Trump’s Director of National Intelligence quits, saying, without evidence, Iran posed “no imminent threat to our nation.” https://t.co/rEKN3Kyskx
Iran’s Nuclear Program Now Fully Crippled, Says Insider
I don’t do polymarket, but that is not going to happen during this U.S. administration or Israeli government watch. Iran’s entire nuclear program has been attacked (from top scientists, centrifuges, centrifuge manufacturing, weaponization, research centers, and every component of the...
VCs Must Balance Power and Responsibility in Defense
“I don’t want to be the person they call and say, can we hit the enter button on this command. But I also don’t have a God complex.” @davidu of @a16z on the Anthropic-DoD rift, why VC has a right to...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil, China Still Receives It
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil — and Iran its getting (some of) its money. Three weeks into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. (No damage visible at this resolution) Photo @CopernicusEU...
Counterterrorism Chief Resigns, Denounces Iran War as Lobby‑driven
Trump's Director of National Counterterrorism Kent resigns: "I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel...
Old Leaders Expand Nuclear Arsenal, Ignoring Safety Hopes
Spent my whole life hoping nuclear weapons would diminish and disappear, only to find a bunch of old men want to sacrifice everything economically and morally to build more and more, until the world is bristling with the damn things....
Control of Hormuz Determines Global Power Shifts
I’ve found that most wars are filled with surprises, but the stakes of this conflict are obvious: it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz. We’ve seen this pattern before—with the Dutch in the 17th century and the...
Former PLA J‑6 Drones Now Stored as China Advances
In this case, I think it is more likely that these are J-6 drones formerly used by the PLA that have since been withdrawn and are now stored. Chinese drones have moved on…
Weapon List Reveals Civilian‑targeting Actors, Urges Sanctions
A great list of weapons and their components used to attack civilians and civilian areas in Ukraine. It would make a great addition to sanctions lists for Russia, Iran, and North Korea. There is a list of those who target...
Trump’s Missteps Reveal Diplomacy’s Critical Role
Trumps learns the hard way the importance of diplomacy and soft power… GeopoliticalGuy | Substack https://bit.ly/4rAmIyw #Geopolitics #Iran #NATO #Hormuz #Trump
Afghanistan Blames Pakistan for 408 Deaths, Pakistan Denies
Afghanistan says Pakistani airstrike killed 408 at Kabul drug rehab centre, Islamabad rejects charge https://t.co/zS7dubYXa3
Russia Loses More Ukrainian Ground than It Gains.
‘Black Bird, a Finnish war-monitoring group, said Russian troops in February lost more Ukrainian territory than they captured for the first time since November 2023. But Russian soldiers have advanced in other areas, including at the southern edge of the Zaporizhzhia...
Germany Declines Hormuz Escort; High Oil Prices Reflect Policy
Germany just refused to join the Hormuz escort coalition. "We lack the mandate." $100+ oil isn't a blip. It's a policy choice the West keeps making by not making one. $WTI https://t.co/hftmXwpdXG
Tactical Wins Won’t Guarantee Strategic Victory for US
As with much else, the Trump administration is not so much a break but a continuation on steroids of some issues concerning the overall US warfighting approach — e.g., the difficulty of linking technically-tactically impressive strikes at the tactical level...
Vienna Becomes Russian Hub Targeting NATO Communications
“It’s one of our main concerns about Russian activity here. We know they have been targeting Nato government and military communications with what they’ve got,” said one senior European diplomat based in Vienna. “Vienna has really taken on a lot...
Sweden Seizes First Shadow Fleet Vessel, Signaling Global Crackdown
Sweden has seized its first shadow fleet vessel. They even went after a bulk carrier rather than a tanker. As more countries join in on the crackdown on Russia's shadow fleet, the dominoes are beginning to fall. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/pUmv12pCMy
Iran's VIP Checkpoint Makes Hormuz Transit Politically Controlled
So Iran has basically set up VIP access (or a separate customs checkpoint, if you prefer) for friendly vessels, per JPM “In practice, this creates a system in which the Strait is not formally closed, yet transit increasingly depends on political...
Ukraine Restores 24/7 Power Amid Failed Russian Strikes
Meanwhile Ukraine is almost back to 24/7 power after a long winter of constant Russian attacks on the electricity grid. Russia is still trying too: just yesterday was another power infrastructure attack on Kyiv that failed. Communism does not work. Also look...
Strait of Hormuz Closed After US‑Israel Conflict with Iran
The Strait of Hormuz was open to the world until Little Israel and its Big Daddy America started a war on Iran.
AI Turns Into Geopolitical Infrastructure, Shaping Global Alliances
AI is quickly becoming geopolitical infrastructure. An Nvidia-backed startup plans to spend billions on a data center in South Korea, as the U.S. increasingly uses AI chips and models to strengthen alliances and counter China. The AI race is no longer just...
Ukrainian Brigade Halts Russian Advance at Trubizh Bridge
Four years ago on this day. Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade smashed a column, a Russian T-90 and several BMPs, that tried to push across the bridge over the Trubizh River east of Kyiv. They would never make it a single meter...
Germany Reroutes Warship Around Africa to Dodge Houthi Drones
“Germany has NATO Europe's largest minehunting fleet and explicitly routed its newest, largest warship around Africa last October rather than transit the Red Sea ... against Houthi drones” Pathetic. (But still massively stronger than the Canadian Navy)
Russia's Neighbors Shift Away From Europe, Remain Pro‑US
Countries bordering Russia is not going to rely on defense from Europe in the future. Poland, the Baltic, Finland and Ukraine are not going to be hardliners against USA
Reducing Hormuz Shipping Threat Demands Resources, Political Resolve
I write for the @Telegraph on the military challenges in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. BLUF: the threat to shipping can be reduced but eliminating it is very resource intensive and can only be made permanent through politics: https://t.co/N9pN5Z9XmD
Inside HIBP's Core Architecture: Weekly Update
Weekly update is up! Behind the scenes of some of Have I Been Pwned’s most important architectural components https://www.troyhunt.com/weekly-update-495/
Trump Seeks Peace, China Needed as Middle East Mediator
It looks like Trump wants peace, but an agreement on terms will be difficult - only an intermediary like China can get this done. Maybe they will take over the role of protecting the Middle East and Iran. Somebody has...
Human Oversight Essential: AI Can’t Fully Guard Cybersecurity
Why We Can’t Let #AI Take the Wheel of Cyber Defense by Steve Durbin @SecurityWeek Learn more: https://t.co/m9sL8PCrDB #CyberSecurity #Infosec #IT #Technology https://t.co/6ilbLLMPGh
Iranian-Linked Tankers Still Dominate Hormuz Despite Attacks
India- and Pakistan-owned ships transit Strait of Hormuz ▶️Iranian-linked tonnage still dominates Hormuz transits ▶️Attacks on shipping are succeeding in halting crossings ▶️Eastbound transits prevail westbound journeys ▶️US ‘fine’ with Iranian tankers sailing through Hormuz to ‘supply’ the rest of the...
India, Pakistan Provide Escorts for Hormuz Strait Traffic
India and Pakistan Offering Escorts as Ships Pass Through Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/NgQFHd2nAa #maritime #maritime-news
Drone Strike Ignites Abu Dhabi Gas Field Amid Iran Conflict
A drone strike has set the Shah natural gas field ABLAZE in Abu Dhabi. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = IRANIAN COUNTER-ATTACKS = LOTS OF COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/VBVzVrAIDg
Singapore's 8‑day Fall Still Beats Today's 16‑Day Stalemate
The swiftest military defeat of a well defended chokepoint in the history of the world was the Fall of Singapore, 1942 It took Japan 8 days and 5,000 causalities. That’s the world record It’s been 16 days with 200 🇺🇸 causalities… and this...
Tucker Carlson Blames Israel for Starting War, Controlling US Policy
.@TuckerCarlson on the Israeli lobby in a @piersmorgan interview: "[Israel is] the size of New Jersey. You don't make operational decisions, and you certainly don't tell the world's dominant superpower what we're doing next... [Israel] is in charge of this war....
Drone Strike Threatens Fertilizer Supply, Endangering Global Harvest
Drone strikes fuel truck at Dubai airport. What is happening is more than the Strait of Hormuz and oil. Supply and supply chains. A key product not moving is fertilizer as planting season is arriving. The impact on crop output...
Allies Resist Trump's Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
US allies in Europe and Asia are in no hurry to bow to Trump's demand in helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN MAKING ENEMIES, EVEN WITH FOREIGN ENEMIES. https://t.co/er5H0ym7dv
Trump Highlights NATO's Weak Naval Response in Red Sea
During the entirety of the Red Sea operation closure ALL of NATO couldn’t muster more than 3 warships at a time you donut hole An entire German task force sailed around AFRICA to avoid the Houthis They are demonstrably WEAK & Trump...