US Navy Minesweepers Redeploy From Middle East to Singapore
U.S. Navy Minesweepers Stationed In Middle East Are Now In Singapore Two of three Littoral Combat Ships assigned to Middle Eastern minesweeping duties have made another move in the opposite direction. https://t.co/1Koe7fWqrr
US May Have Sparked War to Deter China’s Taiwan Ambitions
For the geopolitical experts out there - what are the odds that the US was keen to start this war due to intel that China was looking to make a move on Taiwan and that an energy crisis / Strait...
Delcy Rodríguez Dismisses Defense Chief in Major Military Shake‑up
#Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez ousted defense chief Vladimir Padrino López in a SWEEPING shake-up of the armed forces. https://t.co/Fo5Ft4JE8x
Air Power Won’t Force Iranian Regime Change, Says Mearsheimer
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on regime change in Iran: “It's hard to get regime change or impossible to get regime change using air power alone…If you want regime change in Iran, you're going to have to invade that country. And...
First Week of US‑Israeli War Outspends Major Agency Budgets
The first week of the US-Israeli war in Iran cost more than the annual budgets of major government agencies. WAR = A TRUMP TAX. https://t.co/ioXw5U0cVU
Iran Attacks Abandoned Malta‑flagged Container Ship Safeen Prestige
Looks like Iran struck the abandoned Safeen Prestige, a 23k ton, Malta-flagged container ship, previously hit on March 4th and abandoned. https://t.co/gs0BwcrHY2
China No Immediate Taiwan Invasion Plan, 2027 Unlikely
We break on China/Taiwan-- buried in IC Worldwide Threat Assessment: “Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” said the annual threat assessment, released...
Swap LHAs for New Designs in Build Plan
Let's jump in on the build plan and replace our LHAs with these. (follow me for more impractical naval solutions)
MDA to Add Three Optical Sensors by 2028
@MDA_space to build/maintain 3 ground-based optical space surveillance sensors by 2028 to complement current 150-kg Sapphire sat, launched in 2013. Valued at CAD 32M ($23.4M), it's part of CAD 375M @NationalDefence Surveillance of Space 2 program, to include Sapphire successor....
Iran’s South Pars Gas Field Attack Threatens Government Funding
Iran’s Energy Infrastructure Is Now On The Targeting List The attack on the South Pars gas field puts Iran's energy production, which is critical to funding the Iranian government, in the crosshairs. https://t.co/wO4BOtxxHy
Axios Future of Defense Event in DC, March 23
Axios Future of Defense event in DC on March 23 Guests include @MarkTEsper and @jacobhelberg. Request an invite: https://t.co/G6Ks6HED8O
US Indifference Threatens Europe’s Strait Reopening
What if the United States doesn’t care about reopening the strait for Europe? My latest gCaptain Op-Ed 👇
Israel's Strike Risks Iran Retaliation, Global Energy Fallout
Israel's reckless escalation in attacking Iran's South Pars gas facilities - hitting onshore processing facilities for Phases 3-6, gives Iran plausible excuse (if it needed it) to hit back against regional energy facilities Neutrals & world energy consumers will suffer https://t.co/Kx7MytxmEn
Trump Likely to Block Russia's Oil Shipments to Cuba
russia sending two shipments of oil. and gas to…cuba. will president trump order interdiction? i’d say pretty good chance he will.
Iran Recalibrates Arsenal, Targets Saudi, Not Depleted
Iran’s arsenal has taken a hit, but it likely isn’t exhausted. Launches are sustained and Saudi Arabia is increasingly in focus. The pattern suggests recalibration, not depletion: Iran can impose costs by causing just enough pain. My analysis @business: https://t.co/BVJUzCttTS...
War Over Ships and Tariffs, Not Hormuz Opening
Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share...
Gulf States Urge U.S. to Weaken Iran Before Peace
"Gulf States Want the U.S. to Cripple Iran's Regime Before Ending the War." @WSJ https://t.co/twMeku5of8 “Any long-term political settlement must address the full spectrum of threats, including Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and their network of regional proxies,” added Sultan...
Iran's Missile Threat Grows as US Defenses Wane
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Iran’s strategy: “As time goes by, our ability to shoot down those missiles, shoot down drones decreases. It doesn't flatline, and it certainly doesn't increase… The Iranians have a serious set of military options against...
Understanding War Strategy: Ends, Ways, Means Explained
"What is Strategy in War?" There are a TON of people that need to read this right now. Words have meaning. Strategy. Political goals. Levels of War. Tactics. Ends, Ways, Means. With @LiamSCollins in @smallwars https://t.co/o27njmt7mI
Ballistic Missiles Unmistakably Point to Iran, Unlike Drones
Anyone can doubt where the drones are coming from, but when ballistic missiles are fired, you know it is Iran.
US Deploys New 5,000‑lb Bunker Busters Against Iran
U.S. Used Its New 5,000-Pound Bunker Busters To Hit Iranian Anti-Ship Missile Sites: Reports The GBU-72/B sits between the common 2,000lb bunker buster and the far more powerful 30,000lb GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator. https://t.co/oOKanwJgEB
Russia's Enduring Military Might Fuels Global Escalation Risk
“Russia retains the capability to selectively challenge U.S. interests globally by military and nonmilitary means. Its robust, advanced conventional and nuclear forces are an enduring threat to the Homeland, U.S. allies and partners, and U.S. forces abroad. The most dangerous threat posed by...
Russian Aide Brands US Iran War a Global Economic Tragedy
In some of Russia's harshest criticism of the US war in Iran, which Putin has tried not to say much on, top aide Nikolai Patrushev calls it a "tragedy" that will "set global trade and economics back years" and "has...
Specialized DNS Proxy Needed for Detecting Beacon
I work up thinking about this and think I’m going to update my agent framework to use traffic inspection proxy that only allows specific domain names for DNS. There are other reasons you might want to do that which I’ve...
China Covertly Sustains Iran with Oil and Rockets
How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive—From buying oil to selling rocket parts, China gives Iran critical support @austinramzy @RoryWSJ https://t.co/xCbI1lO7VO https://t.co/xCbI1lO7VO
US Navy 5th Fleet HQ Positioned on Persian Gulf Side
Headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet is on the Persian Gulf side of the Strait.
Ukraine’s War Sparked Rapid Drone Revolution Reshaping Combat
It’s genuinely astonishing: Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 began along the lines of late-Soviet large-scale land warfare: with armored thrusts and insane massive artillery barrages. Then the war became the stage for a drone revolution that reshaped combat everywhere --...
Mullin Must Choose Independence Over White House‑Driven DHS Politics
I’ve worked inside the system. I know how this goes. When the White House overrides national security professionals, DHS stops serving the mission & starts serving politics. The real question for Sen. Markwayne Mullin today isn’t just about competence. It’s...
Israel Shuts Holy Sites, Citing Self‑started War
Disingenuous. Israel has closed Al-Aqsa and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre during the holiest time for both faiths. And it "justifies" this with a war that it started.
Iraq Reports Iran Gas Supplies Fully Halted After Offshore Attack
Iraq says Iran gas supplies have completely halted after attack on offshore field, INA reports https://t.co/tZ53tmRYVt
UN Warns Military Action Won’t Curb Iran’s Nuclear Program
The United Nations nuclear watchdog urged the US and #Iran to resume negotiations, saying concern over Tehran’s nuclear program can’t be solved by military action alone. @virtualnomad https://t.co/PKWhMPuQaw
Israel Repeatedly Targets Lebanese Towns with Aerial Strikes
But it is the same as Israel using them over towns and villages in Lebanon. Which it has repeatedly done.
Trump’s NATO Betrayal Leaves Europe Refusing Bailout
Trump spent years trashing NATO. He's been threatening to have the US withdrawal since his first term. Now he wants NATO to bail him out of a war he chose. Europe said no. That’s not the story of weak allies- that’s the consequence of...
Iran Threatens Gulf Gas Assets, Rattles Global Market
Iran appears to be preparing to retaliate after attacks on its giant gas field 🇮🇷 ⚠️ It issued a warning to stay away from a range of similar assets in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE The inclusion of Qatar (home...
India Escorts Fuel Tankers Near Oman Without Alliance
India Sends Warships Near Gulf of Oman to Escort Its Fuel Ships. Is naval assistance a matter of each country doing its own thing? No alliance? https://t.co/kbTchm8cgX
Hormuz Reopening Dependent on Ceasefire and Neutralizing Iran
"Hormuz Reopening Looks Unlikely Without a Ceasefire" https://t.co/XMIRCwxYZf "Until we’ve neutralized Iran’s layered, asymmetric capabilities- mines, fast attack craft, submarines and drones- we won’t want to put commercial or even escort ships through" - @Bob_McNally https://t.co/ytg2suC6Mi
Trump Missed Iran’s Escalation Ladder, Warns Former Defense Official
Dana Stroul, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East: “It does not appear that President Trump and his inner circle fully grasped the escalation ladder and range of Iranian retaliation actions" An understatement if I've ever heard one....
European Aid to Ukraine Fuels Iran War Effort
~200 Ukrainian anti-drone experts now deployed to the Middle East isn’t happening in isolation—Kyiv’s ability to provide that expertise depends heavily on continued European support at home. In that sense, Europe supports the war in Iran. https://t.co/XxqEEUt8f4
China Pitches Energy‑security Reunification to Taiwan Amid Iran War
China makes energy security 'reunification' offer to Taiwan amid Iran war Chen Binhua, TAO chief told reporters that "peaceful reunification" would bring better protection of Taiwan's energy and resource security with a "strong motherland" as its backing. https://t.co/gUJj7iMQpF
China’s Gulf‑Iran Balancing Act Strains Amid Escalating Strikes
Can China still maintain good relations with Gulf states and Iran as fighting escalates? Iranian strikes on neighbouring states in response to US and Israeli attacks highlight how difficult Beijing’s balancing act has become https://t.co/nw8sJ9lHjm
NATO's Inaction in Hormuz Empowers Putin, Tests Unity
Defending international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is a coalition responsibility. That is not an offensive campaign. It is a defensive mission to protect freedom of navigation, global commerce, and the stability of a maritime chokepoint that carries roughly...
Control of Hormuz Determines Iran War’s Global Impact
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
Israel Hits Iran's South Pars, World's Largest Gas Field
Israel just struck Iranian infrastructure at South Pars, the world's biggest natural gas field. This natgas episode is definitely worth a listen ⬇️⬇️
China’s Global Strategy: Coercion, Propaganda, and Iran Support
With China’s unmatched censorship at home, it’s worth asking how narratives like this move so freely abroad. China is a remarkable, ancient civilization. But it is governed by a Communist Party that advances its interests through economic coercion, information operations,...
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
Iran Claims US‑Israeli Strikes Target South Pars Gas Field
Iran said US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure, according to state television. Petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added.
Energy Becomes National Security, Triggering State‑Driven Markets
🔴Thoughts on the Future of Energy Markets🔴 The most severe long-term consequence of escalating trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, disruptions involving Venezuela, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and even moves like the Greenland interest isn't just higher prices or short-term supply shocks....
Gulf States Seek to Neutralize Iran After strikesGulf States Seek to Neutral
Battered by Iranian strikes and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.A.E. and some fellow Gulf states now want the regime to be neutered, if not dismantled, once the conflict ends https://t.co/u1v454vp6D
Expensive Drones Aren’t Foolproof, Costly Shahed Attacks Persist
Reality check: a ~$20k drone does not have a 100% success rate. @wilendhornets's numbers indicate that Shaheds can be stopped with ~95% effectiveness for ~$2k/shahed. So a single successful shahed attack actually costs ~$400k. Drones augment missiles. They don't replace them.
Decapitating Enemy Leadership Remains
No, not even close. No one has ever had the capability to kill an entire hierarchy of political and military leaders of the enemy (and any replacements identified during the war). It challenges theories of how the will of the...