Crew's Log Reveals French Carrier's Exact Location
In case you haven't been following Le Monde's "Stravaleaks" reports — today the newspaper found the location of a French aircraft carrier because someone on board was logging their runs. https://t.co/vZjwJYppcn https://t.co/jt5Ob6kDT4
Pentagon Budget Set to Surge Past $1
“The U.S. Pentagon budget for fiscal year 2026 is projected to reach approximately $961.6 billion, combining discretionary and mandatory funding. As of March 2026, proposals are being made to drastically increase this to over  $1.5 trillion for fiscal year 2027...
Space Force Still Lists Deorbited Haven Demo as Orbiting
Space Force failed to issue a decay notice for VAST's Haven Demo, which was removed from orbit on Feb 5. It's still in the US satellite catalog as 'in orbit'.
Debating Trump's Role in Ending the Iran War
On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by my good friend @matthewmreed to discuss how the hell the Iran War could actually plausibly end I’ve been pretty open in my belief that Trump needs to...
Netanyahu Pledges No More Iranian Oil Strikes, Hopes Quicker Peace
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has joined Trump in jawboning the energy market. In a press conference, he said that Israel won't attack anymore oil and gas targets in Iran, and also indicated that the war would be over faster...
Votel Outlines Steps to Reclaim Hormuz From Iran
Former CENTCOM Commander’s Candid Take On The Situation In The Strait Of Hormuz Retired Army General Joseph Votel offers unique insights into what it will take to wrestle the Strait of Hormuz from Iran's clutches. Exclusive: https://t.co/Mo6wlYCOtJ
Space Warfare Mirrors 1930s Air Superiority Era
“Where we are today in space warfare is very similar to where air superiority was in the 1930s.” https://t.co/vdPDSKfwkt
Iran’s Hormuz Leverage Pushes US to Ease Oil Sanctions
As an indication of how Iran is effectively playing its cards, its control of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Treasury Sec. Bessent to consider lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. US SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL BACKFIRE. https://t.co/K8vL4AFi49
India’s Fighter Quest Stumbles Over European Program Hurdles
India Joining One Of Europe’s Fighter Programs Is Anything But Easy India has an urgent need for new combat aircraft but the European next-generation fighter offerings may not be the answer. https://t.co/0P9ONW9sY3
All Our Allies Now Aligned with Our Greatest Foe
They've managed to push all of our major allies into the arms of our biggest adversary. Remarkable. https://t.co/MtFDnFiwkm
F-35 Was Never Promised to Be Invincible
No serious person every said the F-35 was invincible. It was never sold as invincible. It was absolutely never designed to be invincible.
Allied Aircraft Losses: Daily in Iraq, Weekly in Serbia
Once out of hundreds if not over a thousand sorties is pretty incredible. The odds will always eventually be in the enemy's favor. Allies lost aircraft almost daily against the Iraqis and weekly vs Serbia.
VC Sarah Hess Bridges Silicon Valley, DC on Defense AI
Hot takes on defense, industrial and AI sectors, as well government, from Sarah Hess, one of the few VCs who spends quality time between Silicon Valley and Washington D.C. https://t.co/p8btunQFd2
French NATO General Warns Trump Will Abandon Allies
FRENCH NATO GEN. YAKOVLEFF: “.. [Trump] wants to share the political risk, not the military risk. .. He’ll drop us the minute it suits him. .. This isn’t the time to buy a promo ticket on the Titanic.” https://t.co/mEGqDFMbiq
Washington and Jerusalem Misjudge Iran's Rope‑A‑Doe Tactics
My take in @BusinessInsider on the US-Israeli war against Iran: "The war planners in Washington, D.C. and Jerusalem apparently never understood that, when under attack, Iran would adopt Muhammad Ali's classic rope-a-dope strategy." https://t.co/Mw1R4PoFVd
FBI Takes Down Iran-Linked Hacker Group’s Website
The FBI appears to have seized the website of an Iran-linked hacker group that claimed responsibility for the only known significant cyberattack on a U.S. company since war between the countries started in February. https://t.co/B8Efsx5dD0
Iran Claims IR‑guided SAM Downed US F‑35
If genuine: A pop up attack with an IR sensor tracking the F-35 from the ground. Likely seen flying by day Iran has small IR SAMs derived from Soviet AAMs like R-27T/ET. Might also be Saqr-1/2 (358/359) loitering SAM Q: why didn’t F-35...
Pentagon Faces Push to Drop Claude, Users Resist
Hegseth wants Pentagon to dump Anthropic's Claude, but military users say it's not so easy https://t.co/JpevYXENl9
Red Lines Emerging Around Gulf Civilian Infrastructure
Meaningful development here as red lines are trying to be drawn around civilian infrastructure in the Gulf.
Marine Corps F-35Bs Arrive Radar‑Free Amid APG‑85 Delays
SCOOP: Marine Corps F-35Bs are set to deliver in Lot 17 without radars due to delays with the APG-85. Starting in Lot 18, all F-35s delivered to the U.S. military will be awaiting a radar. With @michaeldmarrow and @Diana_Stancy : https://t.co/6HIqluDOZx
Escalating Conflict Spreads From Hormuz to Iranian Strikes
On @BloombergTV with @kaileyleinz and @JMathieuReports, I walked through the maps and data behind a widening conflict, from the Strait of Hormuz to shifting Iranian strike patterns to damaged energy infrastructure. The takeaway: expect more escalation. https://t.co/MMeopdNbnK
Ernest King Lifted Oil Sanctions on Japan During War
Ernest King famously allowed the Japanese to keep trading oil and lifted sanctions on them in the middle of the war.
Scrutiny of Military Decisions Earns Praise and Frustr
Two cents here from the back row of this briefing: In convos with veterans, military families and other Americans, I've heard thanks from some for asking hard questions and frustration from others. Our role is to scrutinize each step of the...
Iranian Fire Forces US F‑35 Emergency Landing, Confirming Threat
USAF F-35 Makes Emergency Landing After Allegedly Being Hit by Iranian Fire The F-35 was flying a mission over Iran when it was forced to divert. A video claiming to show the engagement points to a key threat we have highlighted...
IR Exaggerates Blasts; Shrapnel Does Damage, Jets Survive
1. Keep in mind that explosions look much bigger in IR because they oversaturate the sensor. 2. It's not the explosion that does the damage it is the shrapnel so where the warhead fuzes in relation to the aircraft plays a...
DoD Supplemental Funding Trends Reveal Growing Budget Gaps
With renewed talk of a large supplemental request, here’s the recent history of DoD supplemental funding in both constant and then-year dollars. #DefenseBudget #SupplementalFunding https://t.co/Y2B7v3yI9W
Israel Defends Iran Gas Field Strike, Cites US Coordination
ISRAEL shrugs off criticism of attack on Iran's South Pars gas field - citing deep coordination with the United States: https://t.co/1CMmLeQHgy
U.S. Military Offers Options, Strategy Adapts to Enemy Moves
"The role of the U.S. military is to give the President options...strategy isn't a plan that you start on Day 1 and check off a list, it evolves in the uncertainty of what the enemy is doing..." Discussing U.S.-Israel war...
A‑10s Patrol Strait of Hormuz, Target Iranian Boats
A-10 Warthogs Are Prowling For Iranian Boats In The Strait Of Hormuz A-10s are executing one of the lesser-known missions they've trained to do for decades, hunting down Iranian fast attack boats and mine layers in the strait. https://t.co/PkTgNzVTsV
Trump May Trade Ukraine Aid for Hormuz Deal
I have a bad feeling Trump is going to give up the remaining support of Ukraine in exchange for Putin's help re-opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Mearsheimer Warns Iran Is a Formidable Strategic Opponent
Distinguished Prof. John Mearsheimer on Iran’s strategy: “When you listen to Hegseth and Trump talk, they talk about the Iranians like they’re a bunch of country bumpkins and we’re the strategic geniuses...I think that's not the case…we are up against a formidable...
Free Signed Copies of AI Security Book at RSAC
Headed to RSAC to sign copies of Guardians of the Machine age: Why AI Security Will Define the Future of Digital Defense. Hit me up for the three venues where you can get free signed copies. https://t.co/kurVMvO4fo ...
Iran's Military Might Profit From US Market Swings
Is it crazy to think Iran military could prob. be funded by them just trading US markets and releasing headlines on X, because I refuse to believe it can't, market so whippy in this geopolitical environment
European Leaders Assess Middle East War Costs in Brussels
Europe counts the cost of Middle East war as leaders meet in Brussels https://t.co/Uw7ebXs3sG via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/4He3c2iNMm
US Intel Says China Not Planning 2027 Taiwan Invasion
US intelligence assessment admits China is not planning a 2027 Taiwan invasion, contrary to the assertions of numerous China hawks. h/t PA https://t.co/yR1D5boDrL
Secret RQ‑180 Stealth Drone Makes Emergency Landing in Greece
Secret RQ-180 Stealth Drone Appears To Have Made An Emergency Landing At A Greek Air Base (Updated) Spotters in Greece have caught an especially good look at what appears to be a particularly secretive drone. https://t.co/TVPXCvTUzz
Europe Fears Trump's Greenland Threats Could Backfire
“.. We were very worried this was going to go really wrong,” said one European official about Trump’s repeated threats over Greenland .. @FT https://t.co/aRJZu8MTXr https://t.co/pj12dd13ct
U.S. Says China Won’t Invade Taiwan in 2027
China Isn’t Planning to Invade Taiwan in 2027, U.S. Concludes—Beijing views an amphibious attack as a losing gamble, intelligence assessment says @joyuwang https://t.co/QOqBlNWNu6 https://t.co/QOqBlNWNu6
Netanyahu Undermines Global Unity on Nuclear Iran
Netanyahu is like reverse Churchill: he managed to convince the whole world *not* to unite against a nuclear Iran.
Officials Dodge Deconfliction Query, Point to Trump
Specifically asked U.S. military officials if Israeli forces deconflicted their attack on South Pars with U.S. forces -- a common practice to avoid friendly fire, collisions, etc. Military officials referred questions about the issue back to the White House. White House...
Israel-U.S. Coordinated Iranian Gas Field Strike, Not Repeated.
JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - Israel's attack on an Iranian gas field on Wednesday was coordinated with the United States but is not likely to be repeated, three Israeli officials said, despite President Donald Trump saying he did not know...
Iran Signals Temporary Halt to Energy Facility Attacks
Put the war-of-wards, and it reads as if the Iranians are on board on a tacit understanding that, for now, there won't be more attacks on energy infraestructure. We shall see if this hold. I would imagine it would do...
Day 19: US and Israel Still Winning
"On Day 19 of Operation Epic Fury, the answer remains the same. The United States and Israel are still winning."
Iranian Attack Knocks 17% of QatarEnergy LNG Offline
QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. https://t.co/LWYkomhG8G
Denmark Armed for Potential US Attack Amid Greenland Threat
‚If the U.S. attempted an attack, Danish forces would be armed and ready to fight. Danish F-35 fighter jets deployed north were also fully armed. All this despite the understanding that Denmark could not realistically withstand a U.S. military attack.‘
Pentagon Briefing Opens to Photographers for First Time.
Photographers from several outlets were allowed into the Pentagon's briefing today — the first time since my reporting: https://t.co/4EbXGWkVHt
US Foreign Policy Alienates Allies, Prompting Australian Rethink
An obvious comment on US Foreign Policy: US foreign policy is self-defeating. a. spend a year beating up on allies, threatening to take land (Greenland) from a NATO ally b. wage a trade war against your allies. Sure the tariffs were...
ODNI Threat Assessment Vs. Pentagon China Report: Key Contrasts
Some interesting differences between the newly-released ODNI Annual Threat Assessment and the Pentagon's China Military Power Report (CMPR), released only a few months ago. https://t.co/X6EiKBmG3b
Iran Vows to Cripple Middle East Energy if Attacked
JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 Iran announced that if Israel and US once again attack the Iranian energy infrastructure they will destroy all the infrastructure in the middle east for good “We warn the enemy that you made a major mistake by attacking...
Pentagon Preps Press Briefing After Trump's Iran Threat
Good morning. In the Pentagon briefing room this morning for an 8 a.m. press conference with Secretary Hegseth and Gen. Caine. It comes after President Trump threatened overnight to “massively blow up” Iran’s South Pars gas field if Iran continues attacking...