My monthly takes a look at oil price scenarios Inspired by Jurassic Park and Jeff Goldblum’s explaination of chaos theory. This hit close to home. Made my mom cry - should have warned her about the ending. The Butterfly Effect https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/march-2026-economic-compass.html
If the Navy says it’s too dangerous to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump says tankers should have the guts to sail through. This is some serious mixed messaging.
You don't have an economy without energy, so you really care about how long these prices are elevated. Let's make the assumption that the stable price of oil post this, is gonna be between $60 and $70. Oil was less...
There has been a lot of commentary over the past week on China's energy vulnerabilities but much less about Taiwan's. In 2020, I coauthored a @CarnegieEndow report on Taiwan's energy trilemma of security, affordability, and sustainability - with ideas for...

New free article: Tail Events in Crude Oil Plus Inflation-Adjusted Prices. Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/zZ0F6nhkje
UK government issues open call for experts to shape AI energy policy #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/hQ1EUBbdg9
South Korean ESS component supplier will build US factory in Indiana #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/IHTPPbh5vU
Here's a blow-by-blow of how utility regulators and utilities collude to screw you. In this case, Eversource, New Hampshire's largest utility, got a 43% increase in the fixed monthly charge consumers pay. 43% https://t.co/zDXDvQwYc7
Important to note that the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) doesn’t take a firm position on discretionary White House policy. I actually really like the STEO, but it’s not built for a moment like this, which demands Strait closure duration scenarios,...
Why you reeeeally need to think before you tweet if you’re the Energy Secretary. Oil prices fell under $80 bc of this. US official: ‘Not true’ Navy successfully escorted oil tanker through Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/nI7oZeeaDh
Pakistan says it has launched a naval operation to protect its “energy lifelines.” In some ways expected: oil importing nations in Asia may step in protecting their own tankers. (Importantly, Pakistan has a defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, and buys...
Want to understand what's going on with rising oil prices and Iran? I gave a full breakdown on @tbpn. The basics: • There is absolutely no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, whether through rapid victory or through a well-protected convoy. •...
US Navy refusing to escort commercial ships thru the Strait. Saying the risk is too high. Is the end of the war not as close as some infer? Is supply chain risk escalating? Can a prolonged war fracture some of...

US solar installation: Down 14% between 2024 and 2025. Chinese solar installation: Up 14% between 2024 and 2025. Last year China installed more than 7 times more solar capacity than the US. So much for energy dominance... https://t.co/te4ziwFqlX

Foreign Minister of Iran claiming current oil disruption is 4-20x more severe than previous oil crises https://t.co/33VOGTSEeb
Singapore raises 2030 solar target to 3 GW #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/PpRx1O5JTA

Solar, storage and sheep: First sod turned at game-changing hybrid PV and battery project #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/DQsJEXqpqz https://t.co/Xxr9iTs3j8

Google continues to lie about being "renewable"—this time by claiming a new data center will be powered by "wind and batteries." Let's do some honest journalism here: Google's data center in Minnesota will be connected to the local grid, powered largely by...

Oil prices are spiking as the frozen Straits of Hormuz has become the epicenter of the conflict. As of Sunday night’s futures open, WTI futures are trading at $108, which could make the...
Universities provide an interesting testbed for adopting innovative technologies. Here is Princeton using what appears to be a very large ground source heat pump with 2,000 (!) boreholes. https://t.co/SowKV9ivJe
India and Russian oil with US sanctions lifted. Revenue for Putin’s illegal Ukraine war? And for providing intelligence to Iran on US military? Oh right. War criminal Putin said that did not happen.
Oil is deeply embedded in the economy. Whatever happens in the short term, demand contonies to grow through 2050.

Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...

Absolute insanity: In just 2 hours, oil prices have now fallen -$10/barrel and risen +$11/barrel, with prices now nearing $90/barrel again. This is unprecedented volatility.

One data point: the collapse of the state in Lebanon favored localism. It now has the highest solar penetration (even >> since 2023, 34% of total energy). Totally unregulated. You can use an electric car and drive for free...
Jet Fuel Shock Looms on U.S. West Coast as Asian Exports Dry Up. Air cargo and passengers to be affected. https://t.co/QUO2O9u8dm

Rapid demand growth is straining the electric grid—and the planning models used to expand it may be making things worse. Current deterministic approaches to grid planning systematically undervalue opportunities to build assets that are robust and adaptable to the many...
Uh. This would be REALLY bad. Up until now, traffic through the Strait has been functionally halted but it isn’t exactly *closed*, ships can are some are taking the risk. If Iran successfully mines the Strait, it’s *closed* closed.
Energy Secretary Deletes Post Claiming U.S. Navy Escorted Oil Tanker Through Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/AgwPq9migq
Reports indicate US Energy Secretary deleted his social media post claiming the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. USD has turned better bid following the deletion. Stocks trim earlier gains. April WTI recovering off...

The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil demand. It's still closed. OPEC+ pledged 206K bpd in April. Middle East producers are cutting because storage is full. Supply math doesn't work when the pipe is shut. https://t.co/EMaJvlSk4u

‼️$100 oil prices have a surprisingly modest impact on the US economy: A persistent oil shock through 2027 would push headline inflation up +0.7 percentage points at peak, while core inflation and unemployment each rise just +0.1 percentage points. Real GDP effect...
Hormuz Disruptions, US Navy Escort Plans (or lack of) and Impact on Global Trade 1⃣Strait of Hormuz Update: March 10, 2026 2⃣Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine Statement on Escorts 3⃣UNCTAD Report on Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Video: https://t.co/vS32XQeQDb https://t.co/ZfQwkBUMGW
Great perspective on the argument that naval submarine nuclear reactors prove that SMRs can work. Turns out they are crazy expensive. (Though this probably exaggerates cost somewhat.)

Absolutely insane. “Clean coal” is like saying there’s such a thing as beneficial malignant stage 4 cancer.

Doesn't seem like there's a lot of Oil/LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz at all https://t.co/5QrGSihDEA
I guess it's good Europeans are embracing nuclear power again but if SMRs are what they're hanging their hat on, they're going to continue to lag behind. They'd be better off paying attention to what's going on in Japan right...

US oil prices fall over -16% on the day and officially drop below $80/barrel. Geopolitical risk premiums are being rapidly priced-out. The oil market says the war is ending.
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
Big IF True... "a large oil tanker went through 36 hours ago" but doesn't specify the tanker then says "Navy successfully escorted" but doesn't provide proof. #Hormuz #Iran https://t.co/WKay8jJ3hD

Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

*US OIL PRICES EXTEND DECLINE, FALL 15% TO TRADE NEAR $80/BBL April 2026 WTI futures are now down ~32% since Sunday night's peak https://t.co/9QugACQ3Q0
Think of this graph of real U.S. price and electricity production data, straight from the Department of @Energy, next time you hear the false claim that renewables increase electricity prices and that coal, gas, or nuclear is needed to keep...
what is happening to this oil after it leaves the Persian Gulf? Are US ships going to stop embargo it or will they let it go? If they don't capture the ship then there's a series disconnect between what the President...

Oil production around Kirkuk, in Iraqi Kurdistan, is connected to global markets via a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan This is Iraq’s only crude supply that can bypass the currently-closed Strait of Hormuz Shut-ins in the Basra area by the...

In 2023, there was not a single day until spring where WindWaterSolar met >100% of demand for part of the day on the California ISO grid. During winter 2026, so far there are already 45 of 68 such days (66%), and...

What impact will closing the Strait of Hormuz have? ING takes a guess featured in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/aiQTNxvQMb

Most of the crude that ships out of the Strait of Hormuz is medium-to-heavy sour Western Canadian Select at Houston vs WTI, which reflects a clean light-heavy quality differential, had weakened (widened) on Venezuela reentering the USGC market—Hormuz closure entirely reversed...

It's a while since the last IEA emergency oil release, so I put together a briefing note on how it works in practice as it follows a strict technical and diplomatic protocol. The below is a (simplified) guide to follow...