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Iran War Fallout Drives Inflation Risks in Africa | Bloomberg Next Africa

Bloomberg Next Africa examines how the war in Iran is reverberating through global supply chains, driving up fuel and fertilizer costs and raising inflationary pressures on the continent’s already fragile food systems. Analysts note that fertilizer prices have roughly doubled since the conflict began, forcing farmers to cut applications and risking lower yields. Combined with higher diesel prices, input costs are surging, while Africa’s fertilizer use remains five times lower than the global average, amplifying vulnerability. Meanwhile, Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are pouring capital into African farmland, irrigation and processing to hedge their own food security and tap a market projected to reach a trillion dollars by 2030. UN Deputy Secretary‑General Amina J. Mohammed warned that rising input costs could trigger debt distress and tighter fiscal space for many African nations, urging concessional, long‑term financing from the IMF and World Bank. In South Africa’s Karoo, investors are betting on pistachios, targeting 60,000 tonnes by 2040 – roughly 5 % of global supply – using novel financing structures that link investors directly to orchard assets. If fertilizer shortages persist, African agricultural output could contract through 2027, feeding higher global food prices and deepening inflation across import‑dependent economies. Securing stable financing and diversifying supply chains will be critical for the continent to turn its vast uncultivated arable land into a growth engine rather than a source of food insecurity.