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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Crisil’s latest report finds that broking firms with diversified revenue streams have weathered recent regulatory curbs and the budget‑proposed securities transaction tax (STT) hike better than pure‑play transaction brokers. An analysis of 25 firms across FY25 and H1 FY26 shows non‑broking income—such as wealth management, distribution fees and margin‑interest—has insulated diversified players, while firms reliant on transaction fees saw sharper revenue declines. Overall industry revenue slipped about 6% year‑on‑year as average daily turnover fell roughly 25%. Proprietary traders were hit hardest, with revenues dropping 25% after SEBI’s volatility‑targeting measures.
Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) approved a US$44.96 billion capital budget to expand advanced, mature and specialty technology capacity, upgrade packaging, and build new fabs. The plan includes upgrading its Kumamoto plant to 3‑nanometer production to meet surging AI demand. The...
Per‑Olof Nilsson, co‑founder of PriorNilsson Fonder, has resumed his role as lead portfolio manager of the low‑risk hedge fund PriorNilsson Yield, a position he held from the fund’s launch in 2002 until August 2025. The transition does not alter the...
Bombay Stock Exchange posted a stellar Q3 FY26, with profit after tax soaring 173% YoY to ₹600 crore, propelled by a 119% jump in options average daily turnover. Infrastructure expansion continues, with 500 colocation racks already live and an additional 80...
Indonesia, home to one of the world’s largest unbanked populations, is accelerating digital finance to boost inclusion. The Financial Services Authority outlined three policy priorities—sector resilience, a contributive ecosystem, and sustainable finance—to guide the effort. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI)...
Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs has earmarked NT$30 billion (about US$950 million) to help the island’s auto and parts sector absorb shocks from pending U.S. tariff changes under a new Taiwan‑U.S. trade pact. Officials estimate the tariff impact could shave more than...
The episode reviews the S&P 500’s pause just short of record highs as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data, starting with retail sales. It highlights that technology stocks led the recent rally, buoyed by AI news from OpenAI, and that...
"It is deja vu all over again." Yogi Berra The US stock market is doing fine, but the rest of the world is soaring so far in '26. This is similar to what we saw last year and is a big...
The episode examines Mexico’s Operation Swarm, focusing on the February 12 arrests of more than a dozen officials from the tourist town of Tequila, including its mayor, for colluding with organized crime. It explains how the operation, championed by President‑elect...
In December 2025 the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a strategic partnership that gives Washington preferential access to Congolese mineral deposits. The article argues that the next step is building logistics corridors, using the Lobito Corridor—linking...
Entellus Industries announced a ₹50 crore ($5.5 million) funding round led by ZeroW, adding to a prior $12 million raise from Social Capital. The capital will fund capital‑expenditure to launch sintered‑alloy production, targeting high‑stress automotive components such as engines and transmissions. The company...
Fractal Analytics and Aye Finance saw muted demand on day two of their IPOs, with overall subscription rates of just 0.20 times and 0.16 times respectively. Fractal trimmed its offering from the originally planned ₹4,900 crore to about ₹2,834 crore, pricing shares between ₹857...
Axis Securities maintains a Hold rating on Jyothy Labs, setting a target price of ₹270 against a current market price of ₹249.85. The company posted a 5% revenue increase to ₹740 crore in Q3FY26, supported by 7.2% volume growth and strong...
The Dollar versus EM today is down to a new low, which is below its level 2 weeks ago at the height of Greenland headlines. It's the Dollar versus EM you want to watch for future direction. The signal it's...
SMIC Earnings Top Expectations on Strong Chip Demand, Outlook Cautious Question no one asks: Wouldn't it have been good to have SMIC as cutting edge node producer given where demand is? https://t.co/BlRZpOYkmc
BP reported 2025 earnings of $7.5 bn, a 15% drop from the previous year, as crude prices fell roughly 20%. The oil major lifted its cost‑saving goal to $5.5‑$6.5 bn by the end of 2027, up from a $5 bn ceiling, and halted...
Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday's Shellacking: After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended… https://t.co/s4awtQJ5o7 https://t.co/Xlf89Ydd1E
January @NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down to 99.3 vs. 99.8 est. & 99.5 prior … net % of respondents expecting a better economy ticked down to 21%; percentage saying it’s a good time to expand rose to 15%; uncertainty...
KOKO Networks, a leading Kenyan clean‑cooking firm, entered administration on 1 February after the government refused the regulatory letter of authorisation needed to sell carbon credits on compliance markets. Backed by investors such as Microsoft, Mirova and a World Bank guarantee,...
U.S. large caps dominated inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals ... high yield bonds saw most outflows, but broader fixed income universe was still positive @DataArbor https://t.co/l0soXmQF4S
Share of households expecting to be in a worse financial situation a year from now ticked up in January and has been elevated over past year per @NewYorkFed https://t.co/fGqXylhwzD
Taiwan’s Vice Premier Cheng Li‑chiun will lead a delegation to the United States to sign the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) later this week. The deal reduces U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15% and secures a commitment...
Consumers still showing concerns over labor market, with average of nearly 42% expecting higher unemployment in next year per January @NewYorkFed survey https://t.co/ykN7Bdc2C0
Quarter-to-date, Energy sector is outpacing S&P 500 by nearly 19 percentage points … best since first quarter of 2022 and one of best performance spreads (as of now) since 2000 [Past performance is no guarantee of future results] https://t.co/1vvb9Qf0Mh
The Indian rupee closed at a provisional 90.57 per US dollar, gaining 9 paise after shedding early losses. The modest appreciation was driven by a rally in domestic equities and a weakening dollar index that slipped below the 97‑level. Analysts expect...
Vanguard has already taken in $70b in ETF flows to start year, that's nearly $3b a day and more than all but 3 issuers took in last year. If VOO alone were an issuer it would be in 3rd place...
Per @NewYorkFed survey, as of January, consumers’ median 1y inflation expectations moved down to 3.09% https://t.co/y6Jab93CyT
E Fund Management (Hong Kong) launched the region’s first gold‑miner exchange‑traded fund, the E Fund (HK) Solactive Global Gold Miner Select Index ETF, on 30 January 2026. The product tracks the Solactive Global Gold Miner Select Index, which selects 30 globally listed mining...
$SPX futures +10 after Friday’s action put active bulls back in control and yesterday’s dip was bought off 6902—7002 remains the ATH pivot into Wednesday’s jobs report. https://t.co/bUhLX4Ywid
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
U.S. commercial real‑estate lending jumped 30% in Q4 2025, driven largely by banks as interest‑rate volatility eased. Originations rose 25% sequentially, with office loans nearly doubling year‑over‑year and overall 2025 originations up 40% from 2024. Depository institutions led the surge,...
Application software vendors are struggling and providing weak guidance, quality infrastructure software firms' revenue is accelerating. Infrastructure software vendors are attractively valued now and their stocks appear poised for a multi-month rally.
How is this a healthy development? At least SIX big companies (liabilities >=$50M) have filed for bankruptcy EVERY WEEK during 3-wk period that began Jan 10, a level matched a handful of times since the turn of the century…last week alone...
Solidum Partners says global warming will structurally expand ILS spreads. As natural disaster frequency and severity increase, traditional reinsurers face capital constraints under Solvency II, limiting their capacity. ILS instruments, being event‑specific and fully collateralized, can absorb tail risk, leading investors...
#Alphabet sterling bond raises a record £4.5 bn, with £24 bn in bids. They may start borrowing on behalf of Bessent if it continues like this $GOOG
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
Taiwan’s Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) has broken ground on a NT$3.77 billion Advanced Semiconductor R&D Base in Hsinchu, slated for completion in December 2027 with operations beginning Q1 2028. The publicly funded campus will feature high‑bay clean rooms, seismic‑resistant structures, and pilot...
Tuesday: Equity futures slightly higher, dollar weaker and treasury yields nearly unchanged. Retail sales, Employment Cost Index and Import prices out today.
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Embassy Developments Limited reported a 240% quarter‑on‑quarter rise in pre‑sales to ₹1,392 crore for Q3 FY26, with new bookings climbing 193% to 1.19 million sq ft. Despite the sales surge, the stock slipped 3.97% to ₹64.75, trading under an Additional Surveillance Measure after the...
In 1985, IBM was America’s most valuable company & employed nearly 400,000. Today, Nvidia is nearly 20 times as valuable and five times as profitable as IBM was yet it employs roughly a 10th as many people. https://t.co/indMwMz0TO @greg_ip https://t.co/HDl995cUhw
no, but may harvest the loss to pick up the google 100 at 101. #theyieldbook
AXISCADES Technologies posted a 25% year‑on‑year revenue increase to ₹343 crore in Q3 FY26, driving its shares up 5% to ₹1,238.50. EBITDA jumped 55.3% to ₹63 crore, with margins expanding to 18.3%, while profit after tax nearly doubled 87.2% to ₹28 crore. The...
1/5 Reuters: "The EU should consider either an unprecedented 30% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods or a 30% depreciation of the euro against the renminbi to counter a flood of cheap imports, a French government strategy report said on Monday." https://t.co/1HcSSyRLJx
All the data coming for the rest of the week. We're going to have Jobs Wednesday and then CPI Friday https://t.co/8DDq0vkOvD
India's securities regulator SEBI has halted the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and the Metropolitan Stock Exchange (MSE) from launching equity derivatives, insisting they first build robust cash‑equity businesses and upgrade technology. Both exchanges had applied for approval to...
1/11 SCMP: "China’s potential growth rate could fall to about 2.5 per cent in the coming years unless action is taken, prominent Chinese economist Zhou Tianyong has warned." https://t.co/9xqpRhz105
Further thought on BP: Today proves, if ever there was a need of further proof, what a disaster the tenure of Bernard Looney and Murray Auchincloss were for the UK oil major. (...all permited / encouraged by a weak board...)
Here are the LTM EPS for The Hour Glass. The turn came in March 2025, just when the WatchCharts Rolex index bottomed. Coincidence? https://t.co/1dQwTByVBg
