Does QSBS Avoid Washington’s New 9.9% Income Tax? (Yes — For Now)
Washington’s ESSB 6346, effective 2028, imposes a 9.9% income tax on household AGI above $1 million. Because Section 1202 excludes qualifying small‑business stock gains from federal gross income, those gains never enter AGI and thus escape the state tax. The article illustrates a $12 million QSBS sale that would incur zero Washington tax versus over $1 million without the exclusion. However, the protection hinges on current statutory language and could change before the tax takes effect.
The Motley Fool Asks: Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?
The Motley Fool projects Apple’s share price to reach roughly $410 in five years, implying a 10.5% annualized return. The analysis assumes the current price‑to‑earnings multiple of 31.5 will ease to about 30 while diluted earnings per share grow at...
Ontario Budget 2026 What It Means for Business Owners and Investors
Ontario’s 2026 budget cuts the small‑business corporate tax rate from 3.2% to 2.2% effective July 1, 2026. It also reduces the non‑eligible dividend tax credit to 1.9863%, raising the combined tax on such dividends to 48.89% starting 2027. A temporary HST new‑housing...
The Iran War Nightmare Scenario Trump Is Facing
The post imagines Iran telling President Trump that the Strait of Hormuz will stay open only if oil trades abandon the U.S. dollar in favor of euros, yuan or cryptocurrencies. Tehran claims it can rally dozens of nations to bypass...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures were mixed on Monday, with corn and soybeans gaining while wheat slipped. Strong weekly export figures and a rally in the energy complex lifted grain prices, and interior processing margins continued to improve. Ethanol margins averaged about $0.40 per...
Navigating Market Uncertainty: SpotGamma’s Real-Time Gamma Insights, Oil Volatility, and Strategic Options Plays Amid Iran Tensions
SpotGamma released a new real‑time gamma analytics suite that highlights how option market makers are adjusting exposure as oil prices swing amid heightened Iran‑related geopolitical risk. The platform flagged a 45% rise in near‑term gamma concentration on crude‑linked equities, while...
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War Vs. Now
The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) now trades about 23 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s median funds‑rate projections for both year‑end 2023 and the end of 2027. This premium emerged after the war in the Middle East shifted market...
Monday Links: A Distraction at Best
The Monday Links roundup highlights several developing stories that could distract investors: BlackRock is filing a new Nasdaq‑100 exchange‑traded fund to challenge Invesco’s dominance; OpenAI faces internal debate over an IPO while publishing an AI‑economy policy paper; the Iran‑related conflict...
TMTB Mid-Day Wrap
The mid‑day wrap notes that the QQQ index added 20 basis points as investors hoped for a de‑escalation of the Iran crisis, with President Trump pushing the deadline to Tuesday night. In the internet sector, Netflix (NFLX) remained flat after...
ADG 4/6: Wait-and-See-Change
BlackRock has filed with the SEC to launch a Nasdaq‑100 ETF under the ticker IQQ, likely charging a 12‑basis‑point fee that undercuts Invesco’s QQQ, which carries an 18‑bps charge and manages about $375 billion. Invesco’s shares dropped more than 5% after...
FROM OIL SHOCKS TO SOLAR BOOMS: The Push for Energy Security Drives Greater Solar Adoption, Strait of Hormuz Chaos Accelerates...
The latest Middle East flare‑up, especially threats to the Strait of Hormuz, is reigniting concerns over oil supply reliability. Governments and investors are accelerating domestic solar projects as a hedge against future fossil‑fuel disruptions. Because photovoltaic panels are the single...
Is Passive Real Estate Income Really Passive? What I Learned
The author recounts how a seemingly passive rental property turned into a costly eviction nightmare, eroding both cash flow and emotional wellbeing. Legal fees, lost rent, and repairs resulted in thousands of dollars of losses, underscoring that landlord duties are...
6 Frugal Travel Tips From Frequent Flyers
Frequent flyers share six practical ways to trim the hidden expenses of air travel, from avoiding checked‑bag fees to cutting airport parking costs. They advise packing only a carry‑on, parking at remote lots or using rideshares, and bringing your own...
Should Couples Combine Finances? What Works In Marriage
Couples face the recurring question of whether to combine their finances or keep them separate. The article outlines three primary models—fully combined, fully separate, and a hybrid system that mixes joint and individual accounts. It argues that a hybrid approach...
QSBS Stacking: How to Multiply the $15M Exclusion with Trusts and Family Gifts
Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) under Section 1202 allows a $15 million exclusion per taxpayer per issuer, but founders can multiply this benefit through "stacking" strategies. By allocating shares to spouses, adult children, and non‑grantor trusts, each party receives its own exclusion,...
Unsurprising
The US‑Israel‑Iran war has reignited an energy shock, spurring inflation and pushing bond yields higher, which in turn lifted Canadian mortgage rates from roughly 3.5% in February to about 4.2% today. Higher borrowing costs are dampening demand across Canada’s housing...
Daily Memo: China Issues Peculiar Airspace Restrictions, Oil Cartel Raises Quotas
China announced temporary airspace restrictions along its eastern coast from March 27 to May 6, covering zones from the Yellow Sea to the East China Sea and areas north and south of Shanghai. The restrictions were imposed without any accompanying...
Q1 2026 Shares of D2D Platform Core Rates Swaps
In Q1 2026, D2D platforms executed 70,162 core rates‑swap packages, up 21% year‑on‑year and 29% quarter‑on‑quarter, marking the strongest quarterly volume on record. ICAP retained the lead in USD SOFR swaps with a 34.4% share, while Tullett Prebon dominated AUD BBSW/AONIA swaps...
Best High-Yield Savings Rates for April 6, 2026: Up to 5%
High‑yield savings accounts remain attractive in early 2026, with top online banks offering up to 5.00% APY on limited balances. Varo and Consumers Credit Union each provide the maximum rate on the first $5,000‑$10,000, while PiBank, Axos and CIT Bank...
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
The 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread rose 14 basis points through March 31, reaching a 21‑bp gain by April 3, while the DKW model’s five‑year inflation expectation increased 10 basis points over the same window. A simple conversion suggests that a 10‑bp rise...
Nasdaq (Top 30 Weights) Earning Estimates/Revisions
Analysts have updated earnings forecasts for the Nasdaq’s 30 most heavily weighted stocks, showing a clear upward trend. In the past 60 days, 19 stocks raised their 2026 earnings estimates while only seven lowered them, yielding a 19:7 up‑down ratio....
MB518: Invest Like a Billionaire: Start with the Operator or the Deal? – With Bob Fraser
In a recent episode of "Apartment Building Investing," host Michael Blank sits down with Bob Fraser to unpack how billionaires approach capital allocation differently than most investors. Fraser emphasizes that concentrating wealth in a single asset class is a hidden...
Momentum Trading Meets AI
Researchers led by Dmitry Garmash demonstrated that large language models can enhance the execution of classic momentum strategies by incorporating volatility targeting and news sentiment analysis. Applying volatility targeting lifted the Sharpe ratio from 0.53 to 0.97 and reduced maximum...
How to Prepare for a Recession in 2026
The article warns that recession risk in the United States has risen sharply in 2026, driven by the Iran‑Russia conflict, higher tariffs, and lingering economic uncertainty. Moody's AI‑based recession model now shows a 49% probability, just shy of the 50%...
US Treasury Yield Curve Upward Sloping As Iran Conflict Continues (Strait Of Hormuz Effectively Closed)
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has returned to a classic upward slope, with long‑term rates climbing faster than a year ago. The shift coincides with heightened geopolitical risk as the Strait of Hormuz—key for global oil shipments—has effectively shut down...
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & the Asset Gatherers
The Institutional Risk Analyst published a brief note asking whether major Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley represent good value at current levels. The piece reveals the author’s modest position in Flagstar Bank, purchased well below...
Trading The Shit Show: April 2026 Market Update
The author highlights that his 26‑stock watchlist is beating the S&P 500 by roughly 7.7%, while macro forces are diverging. The escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is driving oil price spikes, inflating CPI expectations, raising bond yields and compressing equity multiples. Simultaneously, the...
US Blames Mexico for Self-Inflicted Wound in Trade
The U.S. Trade Representative released its annual Non‑Tariff Measures report, dramatically expanding the section on Mexico, the United States’ biggest commercial partner. The report reiterates long‑standing grievances—an opaque regulatory system and caps on foreign investment in the energy sector—framing them...
4 Trade Ideas for Aflac: Bonus Idea
Aflac (NYSE:AFL) is emerging from a recent pullback, with the price climbing above the $110.50 resistance level. Technical gauges show the RSI moving into bullish territory while the MACD remains negative but trending upward. The stock’s short interest is modest...
Oil Peaks and Market Bottoms - Lessons From 1990
U.S. equity indexes snapped a five‑week losing streak on Friday, with all three major benchmarks turning positive as investors priced in a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Nasdaq posted its largest intraday reversal since April 2025 after...
Talk Your Book: Income and Momentum
The latest Compound Media podcast examined two distinct income‑focused strategies. Motley Fool Asset Management explained its rules‑based momentum approach, using the MFMO ETF to layer momentum on a high‑quality stock universe while managing turnover and downside risk. Eaton Vance discussed...
Backtested Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy
The article outlines a backtested Bollinger Bands strategy applied to the S&P 500, using a 1.5‑standard‑deviation lower band to trigger long entries and a strength‑based exit rule. Over 561 trades the system produced an average gain of 0.52% per trade,...
Tax Strategies for Dividend Investors in Canada
The article breaks down how dividend income is taxed in Canada, emphasizing the distinction between eligible and non‑eligible dividends and the impact of the gross‑up and dividend tax credit system. It outlines how foreign dividends, especially from the U.S., face...
Club Conversation with Lee Freeman-Shor & Clare Flynn Levy, Stock Market Maestros
Lee Freeman‑Shor and Clare Flynn Levy discuss their new book, Stock Market Maestros, in a MicroCapClub interview. The conversation delves into the winning habits, strategies, and mindsets that separate the world’s top investors from average players. They argue that rigorous...
A Modern Governor
Hyun Song Shin, a leading BIS economist, has been appointed governor of the Bank of Korea. The selection underscores a shift away from the traditional academic‑practitioner debate toward a demand for flexible, analysis‑driven leadership. Shin’s opening remarks stress intellectual rigor...
Oil Scenarios Changing Behavior and Market Update
The blog examines how the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is reshaping oil market dynamics and influencing equity and macroeconomic outlooks. It updates previous scenario models to reflect heightened geopolitical risk, frequent threats to critical infrastructure, and the potential for supply disruptions....
Nasdaq Technical Analysis at investingLive Shows Bulls Are Good After All
Nasdaq futures are trading above the critical 23,100‑23,120 support zone, preserving a bullish structure that has delivered roughly a 4.5% rally since March. A double rejection at the 23,400 resistance level reinforced the market’s upward bias, while higher lows continue...
Understanding the Market Slippage Trap
Corporate treasurers often rely on rolling FX forwards, assuming each renewal fully neutralises exposure, but each roll creates market slippage that erodes margins. Bloomberg’s Global Head of Buyside Treasury, Chintan Shah, warns this hidden cost can turn a prudent hedge...
100 Years of Hilton Young Commission
The 1926 Hilton Young Commission, chaired by Edward Hilton Young, examined India’s currency and exchange‑rate challenges and famously advocated for a central bank. Its recommendations directly led to the Reserve Bank of India Act of 1934 and the RBI’s establishment in...
With the Strait of Hormuz Mostly Shut-Down, the Last Oil Shipments of Oil Going to Europe and Asia Will Land...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted oil and LNG shipments, with the last tankers for Europe and Asia expected to dock by mid‑April. Once those supplies run out, regional fuel reserves will shrink sharply, prompting analysts to...
China Build Focused Economy Versus India
Over the past five decades China pursued an investment‑led, export‑driven model, rapidly expanding manufacturing, infrastructure and urban housing, while India relied on a consumption‑led, services‑focused path. China’s GDP multiplied roughly 30‑fold versus India’s five‑fold, and its industrial sector now accounts...
Housing Supply and Demand
A new Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco study argues that housing demand, not supply constraints, explains most regional price and affordability differences. Average income growth correlates strongly with house‑price appreciation, while population growth drives housing‑unit construction. Metro areas that...
![Lee Roach Investor Roundtable on a Special Situation and Q4 Earnings Highlights [GeoWire Weekly No. 233]](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://geoinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/0405_thumbnail.png)
Lee Roach Investor Roundtable on a Special Situation and Q4 Earnings Highlights [GeoWire Weekly No. 233]
GeoInvesting’s GeoWire Weekly No. 233 spotlights a roundtable discussion on a micro‑cap special‑situation stock undergoing bankruptcy, featuring investor Lee Roach, Lukas Milosic, and analyst Diego La Torre. The participants debated a best‑case scenario of roughly 100% upside versus a near‑zero downside. The issue also recaps...
The Looming Diesel Disaster
Australian policymakers have slashed diesel excise and GST in an effort to blunt rising fuel costs for households. The authors argue that the tax cuts provide only temporary relief while ignoring the deeper problem of dwindling diesel supplies and rising...
The Home Ownership Gamble
The author bought a starter home for $375,000 in 2018, sold it for $600,000 in 2022, and saw the property change hands again for $500,000—a $100,000 nominal loss. Including a 5% realtor commission and $30,000‑$40,000 in repairs, the new owners...
USD Index, Crude Oil, and Stocks: The Savvy Trader’s Personal Outlook on Market Trends and Key Levels
The trader notes the USD Index is holding above an up‑sloping trend line with a key 100 resistance level, while it failed to rally alongside crude oil. Crude markets have shifted focus to WTI, showing strong backwardation and rising back‑month...
What Trump Doesn’t Want You to Know About the U.S Dollar Collapse
Steve Keen’s latest post warns that a looming U.S. dollar collapse is being obscured by political narratives, especially President Trump’s aggressive stance toward Iran. He argues that the war’s energy backdrop—rising oil prices and supply disruptions—undermines confidence in the greenback....
Detecting Regimes in the Volatility Surface Using Clustering
A recent master’s thesis introduces a regime‑detection framework that analyzes the entire implied volatility surface rather than single‑point metrics. By computing local gradients with respect to moneyness and maturity, the author feeds these features into an unsupervised clustering algorithm. The...
JD.com (JD) Announces Pricing of CNY10B Offshore Notes Offering
On April 1, JD.com Inc. priced a CNY 10 billion ($1.4 billion) offshore senior unsecured notes offering. The deal comprises a CNY 7.5 billion ($1.05 billion) 2031 tranche at 2.05% and a CNY 2.5 billion ($350 million) 2036 tranche at 2.75%. Closing is expected around April 10, with the notes to...
PDD Holdings (PDD) Reports 2025 Revenue of RMB431.8B; Net Income Falls 12%
PDD Holdings reported full‑year 2025 revenue of RMB 431.8 billion (≈ $60.5 billion), a 10% increase over 2024, while net income fell 12% to RMB 99.4 billion (≈ $13.9 billion). In the fourth quarter, revenue rose 12% YoY to RMB 123.9 billion (≈ $17.3 billion), driven by a 19% surge in transaction‑service...