Monthly Recap (4/2/2026)
Don Durrett’s April 2 monthly recap highlights sharp declines across major commodities and equities. Gold (AU) fell 20% to $4,506 per ounce, while silver (AG) dropped 43% to $69. The HUI mining index slipped 26% to 718, the S&P 500 slid 9% to 6,337, and oil settled around $104 per barrel. The 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.3%, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 100, underscoring a broadly bearish market stance.
Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI): Deep Value Speciality Retailer
Bath & Body Works (BBWI) trades at a deep‑value discount, with an Intrinsic Value to Price (IV/P) ratio of 1.30 and an Acquirer’s Multiple of 6.70. The specialty retailer generates $865 million of free cash flow, supporting debt service, share repurchases,...
Portfolio Review | March 2026 (+2%, +40% YTD)
In March 2026 the equity market experienced a sharp decline driven by political uncertainty surrounding former President Trump’s policy legacy. The sell‑off sparked a wave of bearish sentiment that even inspired meme‑driven commentary on social platforms. Despite the broader downturn,...
Wang Yi Works the Phones About Iran War; CICIR Head on National Security; Pig Overcapacity; Wemby's Time at Shaolin; Balanced...
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively dialing diplomatic lines over the past 24 hours, speaking with the foreign ministers of Germany, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as well as the EU’s High Representative on the Iran crisis. He has...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The market erased an early 2% dip after President Trump’s speech and news that Iran will charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil by about 11.5%. Traders shifted from a defensive weekend‑avoidance stance to a more aggressive “don’t...
Hong Kong’s Grade-A Office Market Rebounds After 7-Year Decline
Hong Kong’s Grade‑A office market is finally emerging from a seven‑year slump, driven by a surge in capital‑market activity and high‑profile purchases such as Alibaba/Ant’s $925 million acquisition of Mandarin Oriental’s flagship tower and JD.com’s $450 million stake in a Central tower....
Vancouver Real Estate Prices Rise As Inventory Hits 13-Year High
Greater Vancouver home prices nudged up 0.4% in March 2024, reaching $1.104 million CAD (about $817,000 USD), the first monthly gain since early 2023. Despite the price uptick, sales fell 2.8% year‑over‑year to 2,032 units, 31.8% below the ten‑year average for March....
The Most Important Thing to Building a Successful Company
Cedar Creek Capital argues that the single most critical factor for building a successful company is survival, not technology or scale. By maintaining minimal debt, ample cash reserves, and a self‑funded growth model, the firm weathered the 2008 financial crisis,...
Navigating Extreme Market Volatility with Real-Time Gamma Flow and Zero DTE Insights Ahead of the Long Weekend
SpotGamma warns that market volatility is spiking as investors head into the upcoming long weekend, prompting traders to rely on real‑time gamma flow data. The platform highlights how gamma exposure can shift rapidly, especially in zero‑days‑to‑expiration (Zero DTE) options, creating...
SCOOP: Y Combinator Startups Land Checks, Gather Hype as Neo & Others Vie for Talent
Y Combinator’s Winter 2026 demo day drew vigorous venture‑capital interest despite lingering criticism of the accelerator’s valuation. The cohort showed a marked shift away from generic ChatGPT‑wrapper concepts toward enterprise‑grade AI infrastructure, industry‑specific tooling for law and finance, and robotics...
The Bespoke Report – 4/2/26 – It’s All Oil, Oil the Time
The Bespoke Report for April 2, 2026 highlights that oil prices are the primary constraint on equity market movements, especially after a volatile first quarter. Energy stocks posted extraordinary gains and losses, driven by geopolitical tensions and shifting supply dynamics. The newsletter...
Daily Energy Report
U.S. petroleum product exports surged to a new record in April 2026, according to the Daily Energy Report. The increase was most pronounced in shipments to Europe, which captured the bulk of the growth. The report’s “others” category, expected to...
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Nike (NKE)
Nike reported better‑than‑expected earnings for its Q3 2026 quarter but announced a cut to its forward guidance, sending the stock down more than 15% on April 1. The company is deliberately resetting its business, prioritizing inventory reduction and margin recovery over short‑term...
HANetf and Infrastructure Capital Advisors Launch Nuclear Renaissance ETF in Europe
HANetf and Infrastructure Capital Advisors have launched the Nuclear Renaissance UCITS ETF (ticker NUKZ) in Europe, offering investors exposure to the full nuclear value chain—including fuel, construction, advanced reactors and utilities. The fund adopts a diversified, non‑commodity‑centric approach, contrasting with traditional...
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Model Factsheet Update [March]
Tematica Research released an updated suite of model factsheets covering its AI, CHIPS, cloud, digital infrastructure, nuclear, power, core, targeted and dividend strategies. The update highlights the $52.7 billion CHIPS Act funding earmarked for U.S. semiconductor reshoring. Each model links to...
The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War
President Trump used his latest address to reaffirm that the United States is on track to achieve its military objectives in Iran within a few weeks, signaling a longer‑than‑expected conflict. He repeated earlier claims that the war’s energy‑price impact is...
![[NEW] Cliff Note #138: An Aerospace Supplier with a Decade of Aircraft Backlogs and a Generational Defence Spending Surge](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vD14!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F063eafec-fa90-4003-8987-7401ddb62ff2_512x512.png)
[NEW] Cliff Note #138: An Aerospace Supplier with a Decade of Aircraft Backlogs and a Generational Defence Spending Surge
A leading aerospace parts supplier that serves Boeing, Airbus and major defense primes is riding a dual tailwind of a ten‑year, roughly 15,000‑aircraft backlog and a resurgence in global defence spending as NATO allies pledge 3.5% of GDP. Gross margins...
A Post Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks Report Run Down April 2, 2025
The USDA released its March Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks report on Tuesday, marking one of the year’s most closely watched agricultural data releases. The figures provide the first official glimpse into farmers’ crop‑planting plans for the upcoming season and...
SpaceX IPO at $1.75 Trillion... Can It Be Justified?
SpaceX is reportedly preparing an initial public offering that would value the company at roughly $1.75 trillion, dwarfing any previous aerospace listing. The filing, disclosed by Reuters, suggests the rocket maker aims to raise billions to accelerate Starship development and its...
💡Trade Idea for Thur, April 2, 2026
A trader proposes selling an out‑of‑the‑money put on a stock that has recently halted its decline and begun forming a base. The option is priced to give a 73 % probability of worthlessness and a 79 % probability of profit, meaning the...
Best Student Loan Refinance Rates for April 2, 2026: Credible Leads At 3.66%
Student loan refinance rates held steady in Q1 2026, with Credible offering the lowest variable APR at 3.66% and Splash posting the lowest fixed APR at 3.71%. Other lenders such as Earnest, ELFI and LendKey present competitive ranges, often adding...
Where Is Money Flowing Today?
A Finviz heatmap shows today’s capital allocations across major equity sectors. Technology leads with the strongest inflows, while energy experiences the deepest outflows as oil prices dip. Consumer discretionary and financials are also attracting notable buying, whereas healthcare remains a...
The Lead Untangles: Is Shared Ownership a 'Trap'?
Shared ownership, the UK’s largest affordable‑housing scheme, now covers roughly 250,000 homes and has doubled annual deliveries since 2014. The National Audit Office warns that rising service charges, uncapped maintenance fees and costly staircasing transactions can trap owners financially, with...
Everything Coliving Podcast: S2, Ep2. Inside Spain's Flex Living Boom: Why €17 Billion in Capital Is Chasing the "Florida of...
Spain’s flex‑living market is exploding, with $18.5 billion invested in real‑estate in 2025 and roughly 35‑40% of that capital directed toward living assets. Industry leaders Araceli Martín‑Navarro and Santiago Herreros de Tejada highlighted Spain’s “people‑first” approach, the distinction between coliving, co‑housing and senior living,...
Dizzying Fuel Prices Mostly Outside Gas Stations’ Control
U.S. gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, the highest level since 2022, driven primarily by surging crude oil costs linked to geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war. While consumers often blame stations, retailers only capture roughly 10%...
Major Ag Lender Warns of Arabica Land Losses From Climate Change
Rabobank, one of the world’s largest agricultural lenders, released a climate risk report warning that up to 20% of current Arabica coffee‑growing land could become unsuitable by 2050. Already 8% of the area is classified as unsuitable, with the most...
Morgan Stanley Defends Memory Stocks Including Sandisk Corporation (SNDK)
Morgan Stanley issued a research note on March 26 defending memory stocks, spotlighting Sandisk Corp (NASDAQ:SNDK). The firm raised Sandisk's price target from $483 to $690 and kept a Buy rating, despite a 20.2% share decline since March 19. Analysts...
William Blair Downgrades Adobe (ADBE) to Market Perform, Lowers PT
William Blair analyst Arjun Bhatia downgraded Adobe (ADBE) to Market Perform on March 26, cutting the price target from $423 to $237. The downgrade reflects growing competitive pressure in Adobe’s Creative Cloud segment from fast‑growing rivals such as Figma and...
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): Billionaire Ray Dalio Likes This Travel Company
Bridgewater Associates, led by billionaire Ray Dalio, has dramatically increased its stake in Booking Holdings, now owning over 2 million shares after a 100% jump in Q1 2025. The travel giant is preparing a 25‑for‑1 stock split on April 6 2026, which could...
Unilever (UL) Supported by Expected Volume Growth Recovery
Unilever (UL) is flagged as an oversold European stock, prompting TD Cowen to reiterate its Buy rating with a price target of £58 (about $73). The firm expects the market to recognize a rebound in volume growth, projecting a modest 2%...
SAP SE (SAP) Downgraded on Slowing Cloud Backlog Growth
JPMorgan downgraded SAP SE from Overweight to Neutral on March 24, citing a slowdown in the company’s current cloud backlog and growing strategic uncertainty. The downgrade reflects a shift from earlier optimism about accelerating revenue and margin expansion. Analysts highlighted...
Extremely Hard Indeed
Asian equity markets slumped after President Trump’s hard‑line remarks on Iran, with the Korean market leading losses while India posted a modest gain. Mainland Chinese investors poured roughly $1.1 billion into the Hong Kong Tracker ETF via Southbound Stock Connect, bringing...
Why You Might Want to Hire Home Health Aides Through an Agency – Despite the Cost
Hiring home health aides through an agency costs more than direct hiring, but offers structured recruitment, wage transparency, and employee benefits. First Light Home Care in suburban Boston screens hundreds of candidates and hires only about 3%, paying caregivers $19‑$24...
Bottom Fishing
Over the past year the U.S. stock market has risen roughly 19% while almost 30% of Russell 3000 constituents have slipped 10% or more. One‑in‑five stocks are down 20% or worse, including many household names in software, private‑equity, credit‑cards, fintech and...
Under the Hood: How a Global Supply Shock Reaches Napa Valley
A sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global oil and natural‑gas prices, sending energy costs soaring for diesel‑dependent businesses. The price shock is already felt in Napa Valley, where vineyards face higher fuel bills, pricier industrial...
Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era...
President Donald Trump warned of a full‑scale bombing campaign against Iran following recent Israeli and U.S. strikes, reigniting geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The conflict has pushed crude oil to roughly $80 per barrel, a price level last seen...
KOSPI -4.47% / KOSDAQ -5.36%: Institutional Deleveraging
Korean equity indices slumped on April 2, with the KOSPI falling 4.47% to 5,234.05 and the KOSDAQ dropping 5.36% to 1,056.34 as institutional investors rapidly deleveraged. The sell‑off was sparked by a Trump‑linked spike in WTI crude to $106.5, which...
Monthly Portfolio Update - The Tempest Is Here
The author’s monthly portfolio update warns that equity markets are poised for a 10% consolidation to reach five‑year valuation averages, with a 30% drop needed for the 20‑year mean. Persistent rate‑hike threats, geopolitical tension, and a cooling labor market are...
First Call April 2, 2026
Hedge Fund Telemetry’s April 2 2026 First Call package bundles a series of subscription‑based market intelligence notes, ranging from a pre‑market snapshot to mid‑morning trade ideas, a comprehensive Daily Note, and a forward‑looking Week Ahead outlook. The service also delivers dedicated Commodity...
Kingsway: A Different Type of Serial Acquirer
Kingsway Financial Services has launched a publicly‑traded vehicle that mimics the high‑return search‑fund model, allowing retail and institutional investors to participate in serial acquisitions. The firm targets lower‑middle‑market companies, buying them outright or taking controlling stakes, then applying operational expertise...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat rebounded from Friday’s losses as the market closed for Good Friday, tightening liquidity and elevating existing positions. February crush and grind data matched expectations, while weekly export sales are projected to mirror last week’s figures. Traders...
The Daily Feather — Ferreting on National Ferret Day
National Ferret Day, observed each April 2, celebrates the quirky "weasel war dance" of domestic ferrets and highlights a historic mascot that traces back to the 15th century. The Daily Feather’s post blends light‑hearted cultural trivia with a visual collage of macro‑economic...
Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many
President Trump’s address failed to lift market optimism, leaving risk appetite severely compressed ahead of a long holiday weekend. The US dollar surged, pushing the yen toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark while the euro stalled near $1.15 and sterling slipped below...
Q1 2026 Portfolio Update
The Science of Hitting reports that the S&P 500 slipped nearly 5% in Q1 2026, with the entire decline confined to March. Investors remain wary amid lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. The blog notes a similar Q1 dip in 2025, which...
Sketches of the Middle East After the Iran War
The active phase of the Iran war appears to be drawing to a close, prompting analysts to step back from battlefield details and examine the emerging regional balance. While the future trajectory of Tehran's regime remains uncertain, the broader Iranian...
Nano-Cap SaaS Gem: Headwinds, Green Shoots, and the Private Equity Playbook
The micro‑cap SaaS company posted FY2025 results that mix balance‑sheet strength with top‑line weakness. An at‑the‑market offering wiped out legacy debt, leaving the firm with zero debt and an undrawn credit line. Revenue fell year‑over‑year as its volatile segment faced...
Little Hedge Against Very High Oil Prices
Brazil’s flex‑fuel market creates a rapid hedge against soaring oil prices by shifting sugarcane use from sugar to hydrous ethanol when gasoline becomes costly. Lower hedging by mills lets them reallocate cane within a single harvest, tightening Brazil’s sugar exports....
5 Books That Upgrade People From a Middle Class Mindset
A growing chorus of personal‑finance titles is urging readers to abandon the traditional middle‑class script of hard work, modest savings, and delayed retirement. Five books—Rich Dad Poor Dad, The Millionaire Fastlane, The 4‑Hour Workweek, The Almanac of Naval Ravikant, and...
Improving CAPE, One Stock at a Time
The cyclically‑adjusted price‑to‑earnings (CAPE) ratio, long‑standing in market forecasting, has underperformed in the United States for roughly the past 15 years despite success elsewhere. Researchers Rui Ma and colleagues propose recalculating CAPE at the individual stock level and then aggregating by...
Thu 2 Apr 2026 - Paul Scott's Small/Mid Cap Value Report
Paul Scott’s Small/Mid‑Cap Value Report spotlights six equities—Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY), SSE, MCB, AOM, SDY and TRCS—while drilling deeper into SDY and MCB as primary value candidates. The analysis emphasizes their low price‑to‑earnings multiples, solid dividend yields, and resilient cash...